Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

Scofflaw · 05-06-2012 12:50pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

We were told in no uncertain terms 'not to allow a European bank' to go down. Hardly our 'own' decision.

And the official communication telling us that is where exactly? Or is this the famous answerphone message from the phone call Brian Lenihan didn't bother taking, but on foot of which - apparently - the government guaranteed nearly half a trillion in bank liabilities?

Is that how you think things actually work?

amused,
Scofflaw

marienbad · 05-06-2012 1:05pm

Deleted User wrote: »

He would have at least been able to arrive at the table with a mandate to negotiate hard!

What does that actually mean though ? We have no cards to play - never had. This is all just hot air to placate the electorate.

We are mainly responsible for our own mess and we are still paying ourselves the highest wages etc and until that changes I doubt the European will be too fussed. There are far bigger issues on that table

Censorship · 05-06-2012 1:08pm

It was rigged, you get it guys....rigged.

Chips Lovell · 05-06-2012 1:10pm

We heard you the first time.

EURATS · 05-06-2012 1:12pm

dolanbaker wrote: »

Scofflaw wrote: »

Or we could, more than likely, be in exactly the same position, with you blaming the incompetence of Enda Kenny and the intransigence of the Germans instead.

cordially,
Scofflaw

He would have at least been able to arrive at the table with a mandate to negotiate hard!

How can a nation of lambs play hardball? This country has proved what it is!!!

Happyman42 · 05-06-2012 1:25pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

And the official communication telling us that is where exactly? Or is this the famous answerphone message from the phone call Brian Lenihan didn't bother taking, but on foot of which - apparently - the government guaranteed nearly half a trillion in bank liabilities?

Is that how you think things actually work?

amused,
Scofflaw

Are you saying they made an independent (from any European authority) decision?

05-06-2012 1:43pm

marienbad wrote: »

What does that actually mean though ? We have no cards to play - never had. This is all just hot air to placate the electorate.

We are mainly responsible for our own mess and we are still paying ourselves the highest wages etc and until that changes I doubt the European will be too fussed. There are far bigger issues on that table

I can't disagree with that, but "suckered into borrowing too much" would be a better way of putting it, don't forget that the German banks were creaking under the weight of german savings looking for an investment opportunity.

Along comes the Euro and a ready made market to dump cheap creadit into, the real failing is that much of the investment was in stuff that created a short term boom for certain segments of the country while pushing up costs for the remainder.

Now we're all paying for the mess and face either internal deflation or quitting/ejected from the Euro and letting devaluation do the job, both ways will end up with a similar conclusion.

marienbad · 05-06-2012 2:19pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't disagree with that, but "suckered into borrowing too much" would be a better way of putting it, don't forget that the German banks were creaking under the weight of german savings looking for an investment opportunity.

Along comes the Euro and a ready made market to dump cheap creadit into, the real failing is that much of the investment was in stuff that created a short term boom for certain segments of the country while pushing up costs for the remainder.

Now we're all paying for the mess and face either internal deflation or quitting/ejected from the Euro and letting devaluation do the job, both ways will end up with a similar conclusion.

This may all be true, but i just hate the blame everyone but ourselves
attitude that has come to prevail in this country.

There was a world wide crisis but with correct policies we should have been the best position to profit from it. Instead we created our own crisis on top of that , for which we refuse to take responsibility.

And it was well known that that property bubble had to collapse , but like lemmings we refused to believe it.

I would hazard a guess that anyone over the age of 45 knew by 2004/05 that things were out of hand - I certainly did. When a semidetached in a lower middleclass area in Limerick is listed at 300/350 K and the alarms bells did'nt go off we are in the band that played on as the Titanic sank mode.

And we are still not facing up to it- austernity my arse, certain people definitely yes, but in general, not a chance the 70's were far worse.

And that is why the Europeans have little sympathy

K-9 · 05-06-2012 2:21pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

Are you saying they made an independent (from any European authority) decision?

I thought it was generally accepted FF did as regards the guarantee.

steddyeddy · 05-06-2012 2:45pm

Well I cant say I like this article from todays Irish times.

Berlin says bank deal for Ireland would send wrong signal

GERMANY HAS cast doubt on any deal on bank debt following the fiscal treaty referendum outcome, saying it would be a “negative signal” to reopen Ireland’s bank rescue arrangements.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny raised the bank debt issue with German chancellor Angela Merkel last Friday, but senior German officials dispute Mr Kenny’s interpretation of Ireland’s fiscal treaty vote as a “message to European Union leaders” for a “just” debt deal.
“We see no need for movement at the moment,” said Martin Kotthaus, spokesman for finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
The Government wants to ease the burden of the €60 billion-plus bank bailout and the EU-IMF-ECB troika is studying a technical proposal to reduce the €47 billion Anglo Irish Bank promissory note scheme.
A final, unanimous decision to reshape the programme must come from EU leaders. A negative response from Berlin, the largest donor to EU bailout funds, would scupper any deal.
“Ireland is considered a model bailout student so you have to think of the consequences of such a renegotiation which would, in effect, double Ireland’s bailout programme,” said a senior German official.
Irish officials conceded yesterday that, technically, the referendum changed nothing on Irish banking debt. However, after keeping the issue out of the campaign, the Taoiseach is anxious to remind European leaders of what, in Ireland’s view, is the unresolved bank debt issue.
“It is not about having a bargaining chip with the Germans,” said a Government spokesman, “but it is Europe that has to negotiate any changes . . . there are many perspectives.”
The German response came as the European Commission warned against linking Ireland’s endorsement of the treaty with the clamour for a concession to ease the burden of the banking rescue.
“It’s a further commitment but it has nothing to do with the work that Ireland is doing with the help of the troika,” said a commission spokesman. “I’m not sure we can mix all the different processes that work in parallel.”
The Government sees a chance to move forward its bank debt concerns as anxiety intensifies over Spain’s banking sector. “As the situation in Europe changes, so does the context,” an Irish official noted.
Spain denies it needs any external aid but official observers in Brussels and elsewhere believe the country is in danger of being quickly shut out from private debt markets if investor sentiment does change radically.
Direct ESM aid for Spanish banks might avert the need for a full-blown EU-IMF bailout, but the ESM is not allowed do that at present and Germany does not want to change the fund’s mandate.
The commission has suggested changing the rules to allow such intervention to create a euro zone “banking union” to avert bank runs.
French finance minister Pierre Moscivici backed such an idea, calling it a “fundamental issue for which proposals are on the table”.
Dr Merkel supported the idea of a banking union but not ESM direct lending or mutualised debt. She met European Commission chief José Manuel Barroso in Berlin last night.
Finance ministers from the G-20 and G-7 groups will hold emergency talks today on the situation in the euro zone, said Canadian minister Jim Flaherty.

Dave! · 05-06-2012 2:52pm

The political commentators I heard this morning interpretted that as "Not now, we're busy!", and were quite confident that we would get a deal on the coattails of the Spain solution.

Can't comment either way myself, but I wouldn't expect Ireland is too high on the agenda at the moment, given what's happening in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

I'm hoping Enda is pointing out to Merkel that getting a good deal on the bank debt shortly after passing the Treaty would probably mean that any EU Treaty proposed in the next 20 years would be passed no bother!!

05-06-2012 2:53pm

marienbad wrote: »

This may all be true, but i just hate the blame everyone but ourselves
attitude that has come to prevail in this country.

There was a world wide crisis but with correct policies we should have been the best position to profit from it. Instead we created our own crisis on top of that , for which we refuse to take responsibility.

And it was well known that that property bubble had to collapse , but like lemmings we refused to believe it.

I would hazard a guess that anyone over the age of 45 knew by 2004/05 that things were out of hand - I certainly did. When a semidetached in a lower middleclass area in Limerick is listed at 300/350 K and the alarms bells did'nt go off we are in the band that played on as the Titanic sank mode.

And we are still not facing up to it- austernity my arse, certain people definitely yes, but in general, not a chance the 70's were far worse.

And that is why the Europeans have little sympathy

I have vivid memories of the 1989 UK house bubble bursting, so could see the 2006 Irish bubble becoming ripe for bursting!

The German banks have all the sympathy of a loan shark demanding all their money back (you could say that's business), but are they willing to risk the breakup of the Euro!

The real problem, as I mentioned earlier, is limitations to growth, and no one is really addressing that "elephant in the room".

steddyeddy · 05-06-2012 2:55pm

Dave! wrote: »

The political commentators I heard this morning interpretted that as "Not now, we're busy!", and were quite confident that we would get a deal on the coattails of the Spain solution.

Can't comment either way myself, but I wouldn't expect Ireland is too high on the agenda at the moment, given what's happening in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Good point in fairness they would be pretty bad politicians if they caved straight away. I think our allies in this are France at the moment.

steddyeddy · 05-06-2012 3:05pm

From Bloomberg.

Germany Doesn’t See ‘Big Need’ for Irish Bailout Changes

Germany doesn’t see a “big need” for changes in Ireland’s bailout program, a finance ministry spokesman said.
Ireland’s program “is working in exemplary fashion and very successfully,’ German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus told reporters yesterday in Berlin. ‘‘On that score, one always has to ask what it means when you change something. Which signals does that send -- are these more positive or more negative signals? With that in mind, I currently don’t see a big need for movement.”
Ireland’s Prime Minister Enda Kenny said last week that he would continue to pursue a better deal on Irish bank debt after voters backed the European Union’s fiscal treaty. Ireland injected about 62 billion euros into its financial system aftrer it came close to collapse, and was forced to seek a bailout in 2010.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dara Doyle at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net

Scofflaw · 05-06-2012 3:12pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

Are you saying they made an independent (from any European authority) decision?

Sure - there's been a little attempt by Fianna Fáil to revise history since they saw how unpopular it was, but that it was a unilateral move was very clear at the time, as was the annoyed reaction around Europe. The material that's been made available round the decision (and there's quite a lot of it) barely mentions the ECB, let alone saying it was necessary to make the guarantee to comply with the ECB's wishes.

Certainly the ECB prefers saving banks, but so does the Irish government. If the Irish government came up with the guarantee to comply with ECB orders, where's the evidence for that?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 05-06-2012 3:16pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't disagree with that, but "suckered into borrowing too much" would be a better way of putting it, don't forget that the German banks were creaking under the weight of german savings looking for an investment opportunity.

Along comes the Euro and a ready made market to dump cheap creadit into, the real failing is that much of the investment was in stuff that created a short term boom for certain segments of the country while pushing up costs for the remainder.

Now we're all paying for the mess and face either internal deflation or quitting/ejected from the Euro and letting devaluation do the job, both ways will end up with a similar conclusion.

Again, though, the problem is that there's no actual evidence for this. If Irish banks were stuffed with German savings looking for an investment opportunity, it mysteriously left no trace.

What is more likely is that German money went to the traditional outlets for German investment, which don't include Ireland, while UK and US money, which traditionally find a home in Ireland, was what filled up our banks.

Banking is very conservative - the country to country investment patters have changed relatively little in over a century.

cordially,
Scofflaw

donegal_road · 05-06-2012 3:16pm

2000 - Dotcom bubble
2008 - Property bubble
2012 - advent of the bailout bubble.. which will be the biggest bubble of them all

05-06-2012 3:22pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Again, though, the problem is that there's no actual evidence for this. If Irish banks were stuffed with German savings looking for an investment opportunity, it mysteriously left no trace.

What is more likely is that German money went to the traditional outlets for German investment, which don't include Ireland, while UK and US money, which traditionally find a home in Ireland, was what filled up our banks.

Banking is very conservative - the country to country investment patters have changed relatively little in over a century.

cordially,
Scofflaw

The "big bang" in the 1990s allowed banking to have a much freeer hand on how and where to invest, they became about as conservitive as a Roman Orgy!

Happyman42 · 05-06-2012 3:28pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

The material that's been made available

I didn't believe in the tooth fairy either but I could never understand how the tooth managed to turn into money until I grew up and realised that my parents where less than forthcoming with the truth....because they believed it was for my own good.:rolleyes:

K-9 · 05-06-2012 3:38pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

I didn't believe in the tooth fairy either but I could never understand how the tooth managed to turn into money until I grew up and realised that my parents where less than forthcoming with the truth....because they believed it was for my own good.:rolleyes:

In other words, You'll believe the nasty ECB narrative told by FF regardless.

I don't see a scintilla of evidence that the ECB supported a blanket bank guarantee never mind forced Ireland to introduce it. All the evidence suggests Europe was pretty damn scathing of our unilateral action.

EURATS · 05-06-2012 3:42pm

K-9 wrote: »

Happyman42 wrote: »

I didn't believe in the tooth fairy either but I could never understand how the tooth managed to turn into money until I grew up and realised that my parents where less than forthcoming with the truth....because they believed it was for my own good.:rolleyes:

In other words, You'll believe the nasty ECB narrative told by FF regardless.

I don't see a scintilla of evidence that the ECB supported a blanket bank guarantee never mind forced Ireland to introduce it. All the evidence suggests Europe was pretty damn scathing of our unilateral action.

To be fair K-9, I didn't see any FG/lab protesters outside the Dail for the EU/IMF bailout protests.

Happyman42 · 05-06-2012 3:45pm

K-9 wrote: »

In other words, You'll believe the nasty ECB narrative told by FF regardless.

I don't see a scintilla of evidence that the ECB supported a blanket bank guarantee never mind forced Ireland to introduce it. All the evidence suggests Europe was pretty damn scathing of our unilateral action.

I don't see a scintilla of evidence that the EU is a fair and democratic union but you keep telling us it is.:rolleyes:

05-06-2012 3:56pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

I didn't believe in the tooth fairy either but I could never understand how the tooth managed to turn into money until I grew up and realised that my parents where less than forthcoming with the truth....because they believed it was for my own good.:rolleyes:

Politicians are well known for telling the tooth, the whole tooth and nothing but the tooth!

But some of them are simply taking their advisors word for it as well and depending on the advisor's agenda that advice may not be the best.

K-9 · 05-06-2012 4:02pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

I don't see a scintilla of evidence that the EU is a fair and democratic union but you keep telling us it is.:rolleyes:

Ah your beloved strawman. When did I tell you that?

But that doesn't tell us why you believe the ECB forced us to guarantee the banks, or had any part in it. You're the one believing the tooth fairy story here.

Other countries reactions, Commissioners statements, journalists, the Department of Finance, you name it, all agree. Your faith in the FF story is charming but a tad naive.

K-9 · 05-06-2012 4:05pm

EURATS wrote: »

To be fair K-9, I didn't see any FG/lab protesters outside the Dail for the EU/IMF bailout protests.

But Happyman was on about the guarantee.

Deleted User wrote: »

Politicians are well known for telling the tooth, the whole tooth and nothing but the tooth!

But some of them are simply taking their advisors word for it as well and depending on the advisor's agenda that advice may not be the best.

Thing is, Lenihan and Cowen seem to have just ignored advice on the blanket guarantee so that doesn't even apply in this case. The only ones who seemed to advocate it were a few economists out to make a name for themselves and McWilliams!

Happyman42 · 05-06-2012 4:08pm

K-9 wrote: »

Ah your beloved strawman. When did I tell you that?

Because it is my belief that the only way to solve this is for everyone to take responsibility for their parts in what went wrong and to own up to the fact that the starting point was the flaw in the Euro. That is the fair and democratic approach.
You say this isn't the case and that we are ultimately responsible to a greater degree. That is an unfair assessment.

But that doesn't tell us why you believe the ECB forced us to guarantee the banks, or had any part in it. You're the one believing the tooth fairy story here.

Other countries reactions, Commissioners statements, journalists, the Department of Finance, you name it, all agree. Your faith in the FF story is charming but a tad naive.

Because I believe that politicians spin and economists get it wrong more times than they get it right. If it was otherwise, we would have emerged from this crisis long ago.
It was a Green party member who first intimated that the ECB got involved iirc.

EURATS · 05-06-2012 4:09pm

K-9 wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

To be fair K-9, I didn't see any FG/lab protesters outside the Dail for the EU/IMF bailout protests.

But Happyman was on about the guarantee.

I know K-9..but where were the wise men of FG/Lab for the aforementioned protest? They weren't there!! They didn't know where to be unfortunately. Still got voted in though on skittery BS!!

K-9 · 05-06-2012 4:34pm

Happyman42 wrote: »

Because it is my belief that the only way to solve this is for everyone to take responsibility for their parts in what went wrong and to own up to the fact that the starting point was the flaw in the Euro. That is the fair and democratic approach.
You say this isn't the case and that we are ultimately responsible to a greater degree. That is an unfair assessment.

I didn't say that at all, that's you putting your slant on what I'm saying, as is your way.

I'm saying we took a unilateral action with the guarantee, you are looking to also blame the ECB and Europe for it, with no evidence. The response to the huge fallout from that guarantee and the Euro crisis is a different thing.

Because I believe that politicians spin and economists get it wrong more times than they get it right. If it was otherwise, we would have emerged from this crisis long ago.
It was a Green party member who first intimated that the ECB got involved iirc.

As scofflaw posted the ECB obviously supported bailing out banks, completely different from a stupid blanket guarantee which even went against Department advice. For all the moaning about the civil service its a shame we didn't go with their plan.

dvpower · 05-06-2012 4:52pm

EURATS wrote: »

I know K-9..but where were the wise men of FG/Lab for the aforementioned protest? They weren't there!! They didn't know where to be unfortunately. Still got voted in though on skittery BS!!

Labour protested against it from inside the Dáil - they even voted against it.

EURATS · 05-06-2012 5:17pm

dvpower wrote: »

EURATS wrote: »

I know K-9..but where were the wise men of FG/Lab for the aforementioned protest? They weren't there!! They didn't know where to be unfortunately. Still got voted in though on skittery BS!!

Labour protested against it from inside the Dáil - they even voted against it.

That was the place to be alright. Hiding in the Dáil. The working mans party!! Bollöx to that

Fiscal Treaty Megathread [Poll Reset]

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