Fiscal Treaty Referendum.....How will you vote?

FreudianSlippers · 31-05-2012 12:19am

Happyman42 wrote: »

Personally, I always get nervous when governments, economists and bankers would like to sidestep the electorate or who try to find easier ways to get their way.

Uh... they're still bound by the constitution; you know, that thing we're voting on amending tomorrow so that the government can legally ratify the treaty and implement such legislation?

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yes, they are asking us to allow an unelected, untransparent, legally protected and unaccountable body to impose austerity cuts and spending restrictions.

Actually, no... it will be our own legislation and our own government that implements the debt reduction procedure - this may be "austerity cuts" but past governmental action has shown this not to be the case. Last I heard they're still handing out a lot of money for the dole.

FreudianSlippers · 31-05-2012 12:21am

porsche boy wrote: »

Ireland is in a unique position here. The other EU states have not afforded their people the luxury of a voice on this

As I (and others) have pointed out before, Ireland is no more or less democratic for holding referenda. We are not voting on the treaty, but rather an amendment to the constitution to allow ratification of the treaty. All of the other Member States must make similar amendments - their process, however, is different and does not require a referendum to be held. If there was no constitutional conflict we would not be having a referendum and the government would have simply ratified the treaty through the usual legislative process.

I'm deeply concerned at the absolute lack of knowledge of Irish government and civics... you'd think they didn't teach this in schools.

meglome · 31-05-2012 12:26am

porsche boy wrote: »

Ireland is in a unique position here.

Okay.. do tell.

porsche boy wrote: »

The other EU states have not afforded their people the luxury of a voice on this and as such Ireland is now centre stage in the eyes of the European people as they wait to see what we say.

How the other countries in Europe run their democracy is not our call and certainly given the mess we're in I wouldn't see people queueing up to copy us.

porsche boy wrote: »

Although it hasn't been reported in the mainstream media, there is a substantial movement asking us to vote no.

Em why?

porsche boy wrote: »

I suppose what I'm saying is that we have to realise that the decision we make later today has ramifications far beyond our little country.

But this Fiscal compact only needs twelve signatures and we can be bypassed. Why the hell would other Eurozone countries care if we sign up to it? Our vote doesn't effect them at all.

From TNI.org

Ireland stands as the only country of the 25 signatories to the EU fiscal treaty that will subject the treaty to a referendum. On 31 May, Irish citizens will have the chance to determine their future--to say NO to permanent austerity through a rejection of the treaty.

Since I already know that the fiscal limits in the treaty are law here now and that we're having austerity (or balancing the books as others call it) because we borrow one third of all government spending I'm going to have to call this for the bullshít it is.

molloyjh · 31-05-2012 12:34am

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yes, they are asking us to allow an unelected, untransparent, legally protected and unaccountable body to impose austerity cuts and spending restrictions.

Oh come off it, you know that's a complete lie. The EU will not be able to impose auterity cuts or spending restrictions. All they will be able to do, in the event that our debt passes a set level, is direct us to reduce the debt. They can't and won't tell us how. In the event that we don't breach those debt levels we'll hear nothing at all from them.

porsche boy wrote: »

Ireland is in a unique position here. The other EU states have not afforded their people the luxury of a voice on this and as such Ireland is now centre stage in the eyes of the European people as they wait to see what we say. Although it hasn't been reported in the mainstream media, there is a substantial movement asking us to vote no. I suppose what I'm saying is that we have to realise that the decision we make later today has ramifications far beyond our little country. Here's a website I found earlier outlining it a little better.

www.tni.org

Here's what they have to say...

Jesus, not this again. It is not our place to determine how others ratify treaties. It is a soverign right of every country to do it as they see fit. The people in each Member State have the capacity and opportunity to seek a change in ratification process should they so wish. Finding a random website doesn't really prove very much. Although the pictures on Facebook would suggest they aren't very well supported. The turnout at the events seems to have been very, very low.....so it doesn't appear to be substantial at all.....

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.399631406747315.90972.141259772584481&type=1&l=01dbccc463#!/media/set/?set=a.399631406747315.90972.141259772584481&type=1&l=01dbccc463

Happyman42 · 31-05-2012 12:35am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Actually, no... it will be our own legislation and our own government that implements the debt reduction procedure -

At their discretion and behest. You think Enda's gonna stand up to them based on his record and his failure to stand up and defend his party's stance on this treaty?
He's been told to go and get it passed, or we'll cut off your funds if you don't.
If that kinda 'gun to the head' proceedure doesn't concern you or the future for our children then I despair for this country.

FreudianSlippers · 31-05-2012 12:41am

Happyman42 wrote: »

At their discretion and behest. You think Enda's gonna stand up to them based on his record and his failure to stand up and defend his party's stance on this treaty?
He's been told to go and get it passed, or we'll cut off your funds if you don't.
If that kinda 'gun to the head' proceedure doesn't concern you or the future for our children then I despair for this country.

I'm sorry, that's ridiculous. If it's in our legislation what does it have to do with the EU at all? Yes, we implement the annual reduction amounts - but it is still our government and only our government that will impose that reduction; be it via tax increase or "austerity".

If you really don't understand that then there is no point is continuing this discussion.

/thread and let's vote and move on.

Happyman42 · 31-05-2012 12:50am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

/thread and let's vote and move on.

Yep, let us see what the people think.

molloyjh · 31-05-2012 1:21am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

If you really don't understand that then there is no point is continuing this discussion.

It seems to me to be a wilful refusal to acknowledge the possibility that the truth is something different from what they believe. It can be explained and demonstrated until the cows come home but if they don't want to see it they don't have to.

Scofflaw · 31-05-2012 1:23am

porsche boy wrote:

Ireland is in a unique position here. The other EU states have not afforded their people the luxury of a voice on this and as such Ireland is now centre stage in the eyes of the European people as they wait to see what we say.

No offence, but that's really quite delusional. Even the website pointed to shows a dozen or less people at these "symbolic demonstrations" where it shows any at all. We will have been orders of magnitude more centre stage in the Eurovision. And I can't help but note that those there are probably Atac members, so this is hardly some kind of citizens' protest.

"Ireland is now centre stage in the eyes of the European people"...well, it will be one of my favourite quotes of the campaign, anyway.

cordially,
Scofflaw

K-9 · 31-05-2012 1:29am

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yes, they are asking us to allow an unelected, untransparent, legally protected and unaccountable body to impose austerity cuts and spending restrictions.

SF spouted this same stuff when the IMF came in, FF should tell them to get out. A year after they drafted their own budget to meet the IMF targets, albeit by 2016.

SF are now calling on the IMF to save us so we can avoid this more undemocratic, legally protected and unaccountable body. Couldn't really make this stuff up.

Happyman42 wrote: »

At their discretion and behest. You think Enda's gonna stand up to them based on his record and his failure to stand up and defend his party's stance on this treaty?
He's been told to go and get it passed, or we'll cut off your funds if you don't.
If that kinda 'gun to the head' proceedure doesn't concern you or the future for our children then I despair for this country.

Exact same stuff was said about the IMF by SF.

Anymore muck to throw Happyman, try and avoid campaign slogans this time please?

Happyman42 · 31-05-2012 1:47am

K-9 wrote: »

try and avoid campaign slogans this time please?

Unsere zeit wird kommen K9

[-0-] · 31-05-2012 4:53am

http://www.politico.ie/social-issues/8518-fiscal-treaty-explained.html

VOTE NO!

simonsez · 31-05-2012 5:33am

Happyman42 wrote: »

Yes, they are asking us to allow an unelected, untransparent, legally protected and unaccountable body to impose austerity cuts and spending restrictions.

thank you happy man.

Im Voting no. why do we need any other organisation that is outside the democtactic realm and feed it, diminish our own democratic system and adopt a treaty that is only geared for the german economy?

Wild Bill · 31-05-2012 7:54am

swampgas wrote: »

Just putting it in bold and calling it scary names doesn't make it true you know.

Doesn't make it untrue either. I have no intention of attempting to "persuade" the delusional.

I'm providing a tonic for the troops (those you are not buying the euro snake oil). :cool:

This is a Suicide Pact; the euro is doomed; Ireland's debt is unsustainable (another €4 billion added to the German Bankers fund yesterday - oops! - there goes next years and 2014's budgetary "savings". Think that will be the last "adjustment" :rolleyes:?)

The "yes" side will win today; but in the post-collapse chaos it is very important to have clearly on the record that there were those who called it right and those who have repeatedly got it wrong.

This Suicide Pact is only the end of the beginning of the looming melt-down.

Vote NO while you still can; get on the right side of History.

antoobrien · 31-05-2012 9:14am

simonsez wrote: »

thank you happy man.

Im Voting no. why do we need any other organisation that is outside the democtactic realm and feed it, diminish our own democratic system and adopt a treaty that is only geared for the german economy?

You do realise that if we vote no, the the imf funding will be cut to 1/3 of what it currently is and there will be no EU funding apart from bilateral loans (which only the UK will find it in their interests to give).

Imagine what the IMF will tell us we have to cut then - the cuts in greece will look positively benign:

antoobrien wrote: »

Greece has external debts over well over €500 billion vs GDP of about €250 billion. Exports (€16b) are outweighed by imports (€48b) by 3/1.

Their austerity package reportedly includes (edit bits in old are things we haven't done anything near):
Cuts
20% PS pay cut (our ps pensions levy is essentially a savings scheme since people that leave before retirement get a refund)

1 year cut of 60% for 30,000 PS workers

20% cut on monthly pensions above €1k

40% cut on monthly pensions at the same level for existing retirees under 55 (no pension cuts at all)

Health spending to be cut by €2.1 billion between 2011 & 2015

Education spending to be trimmed through merging or closing of 1,976 schools

Total defence cuts of approx €1.5 billion between 2011-2015 (don't have much to cut, but we have closed barracks)

Taxes
Taxable income threshold reduced from €12k to €5k (ours reduced from €18,500 to €16,000 - a long way to go considering 20 years ago €16k got you 48% tax)

A " "solidarity levy”" of between one and five per cent per household, which will be raised twice in 2012 " - could call the household tax an equivalent of this, maybe

Excise duty to go up by 33%

Luxury tax on items like pools, yachts etc (I'd like to see that one here)

VAT rise (unspecified) - 2% here

Privitisation
Sell 10% of the national telecoms provider for €400m (can't do this again, but there have been no sales of semi state assets)

"Selling stakes in various banks, utilities, ports, airports and land holdings in 2011/2012"

humanji · 31-05-2012 9:16am

Wild Bill wrote: »

Doesn't make it untrue either. I have no intention of attempting to "persuade" the delusional.

I'm providing a tonic for the troops (those you are not buying the euro snake oil). :cool:

This is a Suicide Pact; the euro is doomed; Ireland's debt is unsustainable (another €4 billion added to the German Bankers fund yesterday - oops! - there goes next years and 2014's budgetary "savings". Think that will be the last "adjustment" :rolleyes:?)

The "yes" side will win today; but in the post-collapse chaos it is very important to have clearly on the record that there were those who called it right and those who have repeatedly got it wrong.

This Suicide Pact is only the end of the beginning of the looming melt-down.

Vote NO while you still can; get on the right side of History.

Scaremongering from the no side. How novel.

It's a sad thing when someone who would presumably call themselves Irish would have such pure hatred for the Irish people to go out of their way to try and trick people into agreeing with them.

There are reasons to vote no. Explain them and let people decide if they agree with you. Calling people delusional because they don't agree with you is a sign that you're not able to get your point across, and so maybe you should leave the canvassing to those who actually can?

dvpower · 31-05-2012 9:23am

simonsez wrote: »

Im Voting no. why do we need any other organisation that is outside the democtactic realm and feed it, diminish our own democratic system and adopt a treaty that is only geared for the german economy?

This is not a vote on setting up the ESM, that's a different treaty.
The ESM will be set up regardless of how we vote today and we will pay into it. Today we decide if we want to be able to access it, should we need to.

smokingman · 31-05-2012 9:30am

Voting yes for a myriad of reasons that actually have something to do with the actual treaty instead of figments of my imagination.

Seriously, it's only 9 or so pages long....why are people not actually reading what they're voting on instead of taking vested interest opinions on it?

oscarBravo · 31-05-2012 9:51am

Wild Bill wrote: »

This is a Suicide Pact...

A suicide pact is an agreement among a number of people to kill themselves.

Let's work on the assumption that even you don't believe the heads of government of the member states don't plan to kill themselves personally, and that instead you mean that those heads of state got together and agreed to kill their respective member states instead.

I've heard some pretty insane conspiracy theories in my time, but to suggest that all those various heads of government - for reasons you haven't troubled yourself to explain - have all decided to work against what they believe to be the best interests of the people who elected them, and have not only decided to destroy their own countries, but have published the blueprint for doing so, is... I don't even have a word for that.

So: did you actually mean "suicide pact", or were you just using hyperbole to try to make a point that you're incapable of making through reasoned argument?

Diamond_Ninja · 31-05-2012 10:07am

I think I'll emigrate..

Happyman42 · 31-05-2012 10:12am

oscarBravo wrote: »

Let's work on the assumption that even you don't believe the heads of government of the member states don't plan to kill themselves personally, and that instead you mean that those heads of state got together and agreed to kill their respective member states instead.

Have you looked around Europe lately????

Seems to me that is precisely what is happening.

One after misguided one.

Let me ask you a question....do you think anybody is sitting on the sidelines getting rich on the troubles of Greece, or Ireland or Italy or Spain?

And do you think that their activity is making things worse for Greece, or Ireland or Italy or Spain?

I know history is not your forte but do you think that people who make their living that have gained more and more influence in how Europe is being run?

Because that is what is going on here, the people no longer come first....open your eyes to what is really going, no conspiracy, just good old fashioned, out of control, GREED.

Villain · 31-05-2012 10:16am

I voted NO this morning, first to vote in my Polling station, I know a NO vote is a gamble but I think we hold enough cards to say No and then tell the Germans write off some of that debt and come back to us. A simplistic view and perhaps a dangerous one but we have done all that has been asked of us and in return we have no growth and no hope that I can see.

FreudianSlippers · 31-05-2012 10:19am

Villain wrote: »

I voted NO this morning, first to vote in my Polling station, I know a NO vote is a gamble but I think we hold enough cards to say No and then tell the Germans write off some of that debt and come back to us. A simplistic view and perhaps a dangerous one but we have done all that has been asked of us and in return we have no growth and no hope that I can see.

It represents a complete lack of understanding of how the ECB operates and their flat refusal to "print more money" due to inflationary concerns. Certainly there are arguments either way when it comes to QE versus inflation - but you only have to look at the US for dangers of constant QE.

Villain · 31-05-2012 10:23am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It represents a complete lack of understanding of how the ECB operates and their flat refusal to "print more money" due to inflationary concerns. Certainly there are arguments either way when it comes to QE versus inflation - but you only have to look at the US for dangers of constant QE.

QE is one argument but slower Austerity is another, again I'm no Economist but I have never seen any state that has cut its way out of recession?

Soverign debt is one thing but bad bank debt that has become Soverign debt is another thing.

Heads the ball · 31-05-2012 10:26am

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm sorry, that's ridiculous. If it's in our legislation what does it have to do with the EU at all? Yes, we implement the annual reduction amounts - but it is still our government and only our government that will impose that reduction; be it via tax increase or "austerity".

If you really don't understand that then there is no point is continuing this discussion.

/thread and let's vote and move on.

Hi FS

At the risk of somewhat repeating what I was saying yesterday - one of my main concerns with the terms of the Treaty (which, yes, I know are already binding) is that any correction to the structural defict and indeed the initial convergance to structural deficit thresholds is done on a timescale which is "proposed" by the Commission.

My understanding is that while that term would not require "Enda" to raise tax or austerity, or take the choice away from him (which i think is the point you were making above) however as a result of a timescale proposed by the EC we may have to accelerate those tax increases/austerity (whichever Enda choses)

PopeBuckfastXVI · 31-05-2012 10:26am

Happyman42 wrote: »

Let me ask you a question....do you think anybody is sitting on the sidelines getting rich on the troubles of Greece, or Ireland or Italy or Spain?

And do you think that their activity is making things worse for Greece, or Ireland or Italy or Spain?

Make them famous! Who are they, and what activity are they engaged in?

antoobrien · 31-05-2012 10:27am

Villain wrote: »

QE is one argument but slower Austerity is another, again I'm no Economist but I have never seen any state that has cut its way out of recession?

Canada - did them no harm

FreudianSlippers · 31-05-2012 10:28am

Villain wrote: »

QE is one argument but slower Austerity is another, again I'm no Economist but I have never seen any state that has cut its way out of recession?

Soverign debt is one thing but bad bank debt that has become Soverign debt is another thing.

I agree that you can't save your way or cut your way out of recession... but we need access to money to spend. With access to the ESM we have money, without it we don't.

Therefore it is only logical that we vote yes to get more money to spend! Access to less money only means less to spend.

We are not getting writedowns of debt; it just isn't going to happen unless the ECB fundamentally changes their entire ethos.

PopeBuckfastXVI · 31-05-2012 10:30am

Villain wrote: »

I voted NO this morning, first to vote in my Polling station, I know a NO vote is a gamble but I think we hold enough cards to say No and then tell the Germans write off some of that debt and come back to us. A simplistic view and perhaps a dangerous one but we have done all that has been asked of us and in return we have no growth and no hope that I can see.

You've overplayed your hand, which consists of a 8 a 2, nothing on the flop, and you're the short stack. Your strategy relies on the 'Germans' needing us to sign up to this treaty, they don't.

Aside from that, I want you to answer this, even if you could put their government over a barrel, what is your justification for making the German taxpayer eat Irish banking losses?

Name Changed · 31-05-2012 10:30am

I'm voting no.

Although I doubt that will make a difference. The government scare tactics appear to have worked.

Fiscal Treaty Referendum.....How will you vote?

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