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Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

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    #272
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    Should of known it was all going to be a load of hot air (excuse the pun) ;)


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    #273
    seanknowsall
    Closed Accounts Posts: 65 ✭✭seanknowsall


    The models are now in general agreement... the cold will stay to our east so no snow whatsoever for Ireland. I said a few days ago there would be no snow... The transition zone will remain over UK and they MAY get some snow but talk of heavy falls there are a bit fanciful too. The intensely cold air will never reach northwest Europe. We will be back under the Atlantic regime again next week... This is not a snow producing event for Ireland and in my opinion never was ... I cant remember where I read it but something about a 70% chance of snow for the east coast was bandied around on here!! A wildly optimistic wishful prediction. I sticking to the posts made by that mayo guy, he has been correct so far and I like his straight forward methods ... so its more mild murky dreary weather for the rest of the winter though he did mention a great summer which is something to look forward to. I was hoping for a good snowfall but realistically knew it was a 0% chance. So I not that disappointed.


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    #274
    garyha
    Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭garyha


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    0% chance.

    Very negative you are, this another DAA official forecast? There is obviously a higher than 0% chance before this system has run its course, maybe not tomorrow or Monday but to rule the rest of the week as done is ridiculous.


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    #275
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    The models are now in general agreement... the cold will stay to our east so no snow whatsoever for Ireland. I said a few days ago there would be no snow... The transition zone will remain over UK and they MAY get some snow but talk of heavy falls there are a bit fanciful too. The intensely cold air will never reach northwest Europe. We will be back under the Atlantic regime again next week... This is not a snow producing event for Ireland and in my opinion never was ... I cant remember where I read it but something about a 70% chance of snow for the east coast was bandied around on here!! A wildly optimistic wishful prediction. I sticking to the posts made by that mayo guy, he has been correct so far and I like his straight forward methods ... so its more mild murky dreary weather for the rest of the winter though he did mention a great summer which is something to look forward to. I was hoping for a good snowfall but realistically knew it was a 0% chance. So I not that disappointed.

    I'll have next weeks lotto numbers while you're at it Sean, as you seem to be able to see into the future. ;)


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    #276
    seanknowsall
    Closed Accounts Posts: 65 ✭✭seanknowsall


    garyha wrote: »
    Very negative you are, this another DAA official forecast? There is obviously a higher than 0% chance before this system has run its course, maybe not tomorrow or Monday but to rule the rest of the week as done is ridiculous.

    DAA dont do forecasts as far as I know... oh you must mean Met Eireann and other European agencies ?? Yes they supply the forecasts .. get your facts right


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    #277
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    The models are now in general agreement... .

    /parsing...

    As the first bit above is absolutely incorrect,it follows the rest of your statement is useless.


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    #278
    seanknowsall
    Closed Accounts Posts: 65 ✭✭seanknowsall


    Strangegravy wrote: »
    I'll have next weeks lotto numbers while you're at it Sean, as you seem to be able to see into the future. ;)


    All weather forecasting beyond 3 to 5 days is seeing into the future....... I know alot of people on here cannot stand when someone dares to go against the general hopes and wishes but I entitiled to my opinion... and there will be no snow out of this system, expect major downgrades later today


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    #279
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    All weather forecasting beyond 3 to 5 days is seeing into the future....... I know alot of people on here cannot stand when someone dares to go against the general hopes and wishes but I entitiled to my opinion... and there will be no snow out of this system, expect major downgrades later today

    /parsing...

    What are you on about?

    To be fair to you and others,what we do here is analyise weather and we are nearly always looking for extreme weather.
    The only case you seem to have is that we will get our default weather by default.
    Yes you are right there.
    You are just probably incorrect on the timing as you know sometimes,sometimes chaos theory throws a curve ball at that default pattern and we get a pattern change/reversal.
    Thats whats being discussed here.

    So it would be helpfull if you would give us your synoptic bullet points,complete with graphs/schematics to back up your case.

    Otherwise,you have no case.


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    #280
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The overall outlook has not changed for me all week, and I still reckon the northeastern Canadian trough will persist and keep the Atlantic just strong enough to keep the major cold at bay over the next couple of weeks. We may get some cold lapping up to our shores, like wavelets on a beach, but I think the tide will go out and take them with it.

    Regarding the next 48 hours, it is really almost a perfect setup for snow in the east, but we're just not quite in the right position. But I can see the Wicklow mountains getting several inches of snow overnight tomorrow and through Monday. I would not be surprised to hear of several people stranded up in Sally Gap come Monday evening.

    In this setup, using theta-e and w values is not a reliable snow forecast, for the following reason. The GFS forecast sounding for Dublin Airport for midday Monday shows a perfect heavy wet snow setup, but just not quite to sea level. The deep saturated cold isothermal layer from 950 to above 700 hPa shows lots of preciptable water available, all of it below 0 °C. Calculating 850 theta-w from this sounding (by following the 850 hPa wet-bulb temperature down to 1000 hPa along the grey dashed saturated adiabat) yields +5 °C, which would normally translate to snow above around 500-600 metres, but we can see that the layer below 850 hPa shows a colder than dry-adiabatic profile, so snow should survive down to say 250-300 metres.

    Also, because of the saturated isothermal layer, thickness values will be higher than what we would be looking for, so instead of my usual sub-522 dam I would be more inclined to say 524 dam may be the snow descriminator.

    Whatever about snow, the northeast and east should see some pretty big precip totals over the next 48 hours, and I would say that eastern Ulster and eastern Leinster could see some sleet or very wet snow down to low levels for a time. It most likely won't stick, but as I said, the higher hills above around 300 metres should see some action. The Welsh mountains and moors should be fairly treacherous too.

    190200.gif


    PS I'm finding this thread unreadable at this stage. I really cannot put up with the constant references and quotes of netweather's forum, and people saying we should be feeling what they're feeling over there. Both that and the constant questioning of Met Eireann's forecasting techniques are putting me off this place again.


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    #281
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,805 ✭✭✭Calibos


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    The models are now in general agreement... the cold will stay to our east so no snow whatsoever for Ireland. I said a few days ago there would be no snow... The transition zone will remain over UK and they MAY get some snow but talk of heavy falls there are a bit fanciful too. The intensely cold air will never reach northwest Europe. We will be back under the Atlantic regime again next week... This is not a snow producing event for Ireland and in my opinion never was ... I cant remember where I read it but something about a 70% chance of snow for the east coast was bandied around on here!! A wildly optimistic wishful prediction. I sticking to the posts made by that mayo guy, he has been correct so far and I like his straight forward methods ... so its more mild murky dreary weather for the rest of the winter though he did mention a great summer which is something to look forward to. I was hoping for a good snowfall but realistically knew it was a 0% chance. So I not that disappointed.

    The first half of your post had me thinking you might be one of those posters that don't frequent the forum, appear out of nowhere, whose names I don't recognise but who hold their own when discussing synoptics with the resident experts. ie. here on the forums today, gone tomorrow experts but experts nonetheless.

    However the second half of your post leads me to believe that the datasets you are using for your prediction of where the transition might be or its intensity etc......are lichen growth on the mountains and the mating cycles of crows. :rolleyes:


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    #282
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hi all,

    Don't quite get the negativity about the 06z GFS tbh. The operational run is clearly on the mild side of the ensembles

    MT8_Dublin_ens.png

    The UKMO is ok. ECM is very good at 96hrs but then flies off on a milder tangent but that is only one run. This is good and anything beyond 96hrs should really be taken with caution.

    Recm962.gif

    Am I the only one happy with the model runs this morning? Cheer up. We are still on the right track.


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    #283
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I think everyone is disappointed by the next 2 days but there's still plenty of potential right up til Feb 7th from what I can see.


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    #284
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Su Campu wrote: »
    PS I'm finding this thread unreadable at this stage. I really cannot put up with the constant references and quotes of netweather's forum, and people saying we should be feeling what they're feeling over there. Both that and the constant questioning of Met Eireann's forecasting techniques are putting me off this place again.


    Excellent analysis as usual Su,

    Just going to pick up this comment, I somewhat agree , dont see the need for there happy there sad posts ,

    But on the information and data analysis data I dont agree.

    Its good to see all sources and information and match the ideas of others against some of our main stay , make things all the more interesting .

    Problem being people are taking everything they see over there as gospel.


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    #285
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Excellent analysis as usual Su,

    Just going to pick up this comment, I somewhat agree , dont see the need for there happy there sad posts ,

    But on the information and data analysis data I dont agree.

    Its good to see all sources and information and match the ideas of others against some of our main stay , make things all the more interesting .

    Problem being people are taking everything they see over there as gospel.

    Comparing the outlook in England to Ireland in this setup is chalk and cheese, so whatever they're saying should mean nothing to a discussion of weather in Ireland. They are going to have it way colder than we will.


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    #286
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Comparing the outlook in England to Ireland in this setup is chalk and cheese, so whatevery they're saying should mean nothing to a discussion of weather in Ireland. They are going to have it way colder than we will.
    Mind you,you've been wrong before too in contrary set up's :D
    I'm hoping you are this time anyway :)


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    #287
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    blackius wrote: »
    Mind you,you've been wrong before too in contrary set up's :D
    I'm hoping you are this time anyway :)

    Are you saying England WON'T be colder than Ireland?? :confused::confused:


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    #288
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    seanknowsall wrote: »
    All weather forecasting beyond 3 to 5 days is seeing into the future.......

    And yet YOU can still guarantee no snow and mild muck for the rest of the winter? As I said, I'll have those numbers when you're ready! ;)
    seanknowsall wrote: »
    I know alot of people on here cannot stand when someone dares to go against the general hopes and wishes but I entitiled to my opinion... and there will be no snow out of this system, expect major downgrades later today

    Sean, if someone came on here and guaranteed a 100% chance of snow next week, I'd have given them the exact same response I gave you. Now, if they backed up their claim with some well explained evidence to show why they think this, like all of the more experienced posters on here do, then, I'd respect their claim a lot more.

    If you're on here to learn about and discuss the weather then fair enough, mildists and snowbies have great debates on here, but if you're here just to provoke, you'll be found out fairly quickly..


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    #289
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Are you saying England WON'T be colder than Ireland?? :confused::confused:
    No I'm not,don't be daft lol.
    I'm commenting on the bit that the cold will only flirt with us if at all [after the frontal episodes] :)
    I'm hoping that it will push west a few times,a few bites of the cherry.

    No idea what will happen towards the weekend though as I'd no idea we'd have yesterdays output either when I was all but giving up.


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    #290
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Comparing the outlook in England to Ireland in this setup is chalk and cheese, so whatever they're saying should mean nothing to a discussion of weather in Ireland. They are going to have it way colder than we will.

    Agreed I was more so looking at the wider synoptics , thats what I look at over there anyway.


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    #291
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    blackius wrote: »
    No I'm not,don't be daft lol.
    I'm commenting on the bit that the cold will only flirt with us if at all [after the frontal episodes] :)
    I'm hoping that it will push west a few times,a few bites of the cherry.

    No idea what will happen towards the weekend though as I'd no idea we'd have yesterdays output either when I was all but giving up.

    Hoping something will happen is not a sound reason for disagreeing with someone who puts down a scientific argument as to why they think it won't! :)


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    #292
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,293 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Good covering of snow on the mountains here. Above about 500m. I'm fairly high up here so will keep ye informed of any sleet/snow over the coming days. Still a bit mild here at 5.6c.


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    #293
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Hoping something will happen is not a sound reason for disagreeing with someone who puts down a scientific argument as to why they think it won't!
    But Su in fairness and with respect,weren't you in that analysis assuming [which isn't too far from hoping in that it holds the same value] that a system in canada will do what you want it to do.
    Ergo we're on similar ground here,the only difference being your scenario by default is more likely.


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    #294
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    blackius wrote: »
    But Su in fairness and with respect,weren't you in that analysis assuming [which isn't too far from hoping in that it holds the same value] that a system in canada will do what you want it to do.
    Ergo we're on similar ground here,the only difference being your scenario by default is more likely.

    1) Assuming is not the same as hoping.

    2) I was not assuming. I was using meteorology to estimate the effects downstream of a large scale feature upstream. In these times that is more productive than watching every chart from every run of every model. This feature has been what has given us such a mild Atlantic winter so far.

    If you want to have a go then have a go at MT too as he was using the same idea a couple of days back. Is he wrong too??

    I'm outta here for good.


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    #295
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    The op trending a lot colder for Dublin

    t850Dublin.png


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    #296
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Su Campu wrote: »
    1) Assuming is not the same as hoping.

    2) I was not assuming. I was using meteorology to estimate the effects downstream of a large scale feature upstream. In these times that is more productive than watching every chart from every run of every model. This feature has been what has given us such a mild Atlantic winter so far.

    If you want to have a go then have a go at MT too as he was using the same idea a couple of days back. Is he wrong too??

    I'm outta here for good.
    Su I'm sending you a pm because you are taking this too seriously.
    I didn't realise that me saying you've been wrong before was considered an attack,for heavens sake I've been wrong thousands of times.
    All we are doing here is shooting the breeze and not attacking characters.

    Knowing that is paramount especially amongst regulars on a forum.


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    #297
    Icanseethewind
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15 ✭Icanseethewind


    Its great that the snow is not coming as I want to let the sheep onto a pasture for a bit... Normally I wouldnt but the weather has been so mild the grass is growing all year. You can notice a great stretch in the evening now so hope it wont be long till a nice mild spring. I wasnt worried about snow coming as the mountain never lies....


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    #298
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Icanseethewind wrote: »
    Its great that the snow is not coming as I want to let the sheep onto a pasture for a bit... Normally I wouldnt but the weather has been so mild the grass is growing all year. You can notice a great stretch in the evening now so hope it wont be long till a nice mild spring. I wasnt worried about snow coming as the mountain never lies....

    Nothing is set in stone as we speak , out west the likelihood is for a milder spread , but central and eastern parts its all to play for.


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    #299
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    blackius wrote: »
    Su I'm sending you a pm because you are taking this too seriously.
    I didn't realise that me saying you've been wrong before was considered an attack,for heavens sake I've been wrong thousands of times.
    All we are doing here is shooting the breeze and not attacking characters.

    Knowing that is paramount especially amongst regulars on a forum.

    No need for the pm. I've been wrong before and admit so. I haven't been wrong on this yet as it hasn't happened yet, but if I turn out to be then no big deal. I am just giving an educated opinion on what I think will happen, which is more than most people here are doing. It just happens to be against what people want to hear and therefore is instantly thrown out.

    As I said before, this forum has lost some good posters due to the attitude that prevails. It seems that Dr Galen's post the other day about this being a science forum has fallen on deaf ears and that you and hundreds of others want istead to whinge and whine instead of using science in the debate. Fair enough, if that's what you want, but I won't be a part of it.


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    #300
    ffarrell7
    Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Agreed I was more so looking at the wider synoptics , thats what I look at over there anyway.


    I lived in London for 7 and a half years and it snowed twice in that time (decent snow I mean). Dublin is generally a lot colder than London region and heavier snowfall. The past three years produced very heavy snowfall in Dublin city and region and even last year when I went over to knightsbridge on 22 December there was hardly any snow around while in the centre of Dublin it lasted for weeks. Check the Irish Times and in general you will see that Dublin ir in average 2 or 3 degrees colder. It is further north I know but it also further west.


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    #301
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Anyone writing things off at this stage is completely daft. Equally anyone saying there will be severe cold weather is the same.

    We don't know yet. My advice for anyone taking things a bit seriously is take a break until the 12z runs, get your head together and have a nice cup of tea.

    I do hope people are not being driven actually mad on this forum. I wonder sometimes.


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