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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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    #272
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,458 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Gerry understate Murphy is on!

    Indeed, very much a "check back later" forecast. Did warn of stormy conditions on Monday and Tuesday but didn't mention anything out of the ordinary.


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    #273
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Indeed, very much a "check back later" forecast. Did warn of stormy conditions on Monday and Tuesday but didn't mention anything out of the ordinary.

    There is still a fair bit of uncertainty on where and just how bad it might be.


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    #274
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    When it came to the Christmas eve storm, Met Eireann were talking about the storm a few days before it came, then they went kinda quiet about and nothing extreme was expected.
    As a weather enthusiast, it was on the news that I heard roof tiles were coming off buildings in Cork city and we know the rest....

    Met Eireann are the experts, however looking at the weather models one can't help but feel they should be showing a bit more concern in their forecasts, better to be safe than sorry.


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    #275
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,458 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    maquiladora wrote: »
    There is still a fair bit of uncertainty on where and just how bad it might be.

    No doubt, wouldn't have expected any real warning from ME before Sunday anyways.


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    #276
    whiteandlight
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    I have followed the weather forum for about a year now so I know there is no certainty in the models but could anyone give approximate percentages as to these storms coming off? I'm used to these things downgrading but having watched this thread it still hasn't happened. Basically wondering when should I start seriously worrying?


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    #277
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    18Z still rolling out but Tuesdays low looks further south at 24 hours.


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    #278
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    maquiladora wrote: »
    18Z still rolling out but Tuesdays low looks further south at 24 hours.
    Better for snow potential.


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    #279
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Musicmental85 wrote: »
    Basically wondering when should I start seriously worrying?

    When the GFS Guru stops laughing. He should be grimacing by the end of the GFS run currently rolling out
    old-man-laughing.jpg


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    #280
    seanknowsall
    Closed Accounts Posts: 65 ✭✭seanknowsall


    Breaking news on tuesday night.... as violent winds slam ireland reports are coming in of a serious incident at met eireann hq in glasnevin. It is believed a huge piece of debris brought down by the winds smashed through the roof of the building pinning well known forecaster gerry murphy against the floor. Although he expected to survive it is believed he is to traumatised to ever work there again.


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    #281
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    He is right to be cautious though (even if it is a cautious optimism!) given the slightly conflicting signals on the depth of the gradient over last few models runs. He is probably as much as a 'ramper' as we are but given his job description of public informer he can't take any chances. Predicting a strong storm may send the general public into a panic; predicting it too slack, and people may not take any caution at all. Not to mention if either forecasts don't fruitate, the fury of the mob will once again rear its ugly and completely illogical head.


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    #282
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking a bit different so far on the 18Z.


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    #283
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    @ Deep

    I always thought it would be a good idea for Met Eireann to go beyond what they are currently doing and provide a little insight into what they think may happen. For example, a section of their site dedicated to an occasional blog posting from one of the meteorologists would be a very welcome addition to their service. I can imagine that Gerry Murphy or any other forecaster at ME for that matter are as enthusiastic about the weather as we are. It would be great to know what their thoughts are on weather events. They don't need to call it, just talk about possible scenarios. In the end, there are no winners and losers and certainly far fewer members of the 'mob'.

    Alternatively, a radio show like Hook or Cooper could do a weekly slot with one of them. It's a no brainer in terms of what it would do for listenership figures.

    In the absence of such experts on air and online, the void will always be filled by spoofers and money merchants who take advantage.

    Just a thought.


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    #284
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    complex looking at T54 on the 18z GFS,


    overall a little further north but with 2 centres it looks very complicated and subject to change.


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    #285
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    we had a very similar scenario a few days ago with the first storm, models were showing it slightly nearer ireland and then bang in the last 24hrs it pulled north and slammed scotland , and after days of following the thread and gettin exicted we had at best a windy day like any other in december down here in the southeast so i take a lot of this with a pinch of salt. excited following the thread and comments but in my heart of hearts expecting a downgrade even at last minute :( ithink its par for the course in weather watchin


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    #286
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    complex looking at T54 on the 18z GFS,


    overall a little further north but with 2 centres it looks very complicated and subject to change.

    A very different setup, indeed. As someone alluded to earlier,looking more like 48 hrs of sustained winds and potential for some severe gusts throughout this period.


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    #287
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    First storm looking a lot less intense by Tuesday morning on this run.

    More complex evolution. Ends up weaker and further north.

    Just goes to show that the first storm is still far from being nailed let alone the next one.


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    #288
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Interesting to see those high pressure systems linking up to our west. I wonder would that have any effect on the second storm system in terms of its path and intensity. We shall see shortly

    184694.png
    184693.png


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    #289
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    A very different setup, indeed. As someone alluded to earlier,looking more like 48 hrs of sustained winds and potential for some severe gusts throughout this period.

    can you put up the 18z gfs so we can see the change thanks


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    #290
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Aren't there high tides next week too ?


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    #291
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Looking at the latest run Tuesday storm further north and less intense and Friday storm as started off further south.


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    #292
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    The Thursday/Friday storm looks the worse still.


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    #293
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 2 looking serious...south gets hit first.

    Edit : Oh man...


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    #294
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    The second storm on this run, slams right into Ireland.

    While the first storm will be no picnic, the second one looks like it could be the one with the most potential for damage.
    A much tighter packed storm.


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    #295
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    The GFS guru has stopped laughing.

    Thursday's storm is incredibly powerful
    184697.png184699.png


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    #296
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    Looking at the latest run Tuesday storm further north and less intense and Friday storm as started off further south.

    the track of the Friday's low may be determined by how strong the Azores/Iberian high will be by then. The stronger the high the further the north the low pressure may be.


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    #297
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Holy man

    Rtavn1201.png


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    #298
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 2 on the 18Z GFS is the most serious storm I've ever seen on the GFS for Ireland that hasnt been in FI in the last 6 years or so that I've been watching the models.

    South, west, east, north. Nobody escapes.

    Netweather Extra is showing 92+mph gusts on the east coast at 123 hours, thats as high as the scale goes.


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    #299
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    This forum throws up some great terminology. Last year it was all about graupel, polar lows & streamers. This year we have jet stings, jet streaks rosenbloom rule and my own favourite so far was MT quoting "bombogenesis"

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/188/

    All this storm watching gets quite addictive until you realise - oh feck I need to go out on Thurs night


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    #300
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Storm 2 on the 18Z GFS is the most serious storm I've ever seen on the GFS for Ireland that hasnt been in FI in the last 6 years or so that I've been watching the models.


    It is truly exceptional

    We'd be talking gusts to 90-100 knots :eek:


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    #301
    hotwhiskey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Spot the difference. I'd say 400+ miles.

    Storm1.pngStorm2.png


This discussion has been closed.
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