Greeks having a referendum on bailout

Mr.Micro · 03-11-2011 09:24PM

NinjaK wrote: »

I knew they wouldnt let the Greece people have their say:rolleyes:

I think they have had their say, and spent it, many times over.

jonniebgood1 · 03-11-2011 11:55PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

I think the EU/IMF are keen to hand over the money, and what Papandreou has done or is doing here is creating a national unity government through a massive piece of brinkmanship. And a key piece of that would seem to be that he probably is willing to go all the way.

Brinkmanhip? It would seem to me a whole lot more likely that he is trailing meekly after the events as opposed to cleverly leading them. 'Brinkmanship' suggests control which I see no evidence of. It also suggests a possibly more positive outcome for Greece (or Papandreou) which is no nearer as a result of a his actions (than it was without them).

I suppose it could be naive to say he thought a referendum was the fairest option, i.e. let the people decide their least bad future. He now changes from this path as he realises that it is not going to happen.

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 12:11AM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Brinkmanhip? It would seem to me a whole lot more likely that he is trailing meekly after the events as opposed to cleverly leading them. 'Brinkmanship' suggests control which I see no evidence of. It also suggests a possibly more positive outcome for Greece (or Papandreou) which is no nearer as a result of a his actions (than it was without them).

I suppose it could be naive to say he thought a referendum was the fairest option, i.e. let the people decide their least bad future. He now changes from this path as he realises that it is not going to happen.

We'll see - if Greece manages to come out of this with some kind of national unity government, I'll consider myself largely vindicated. After all, my version is what Papandreou says he was doing - that he was doing it because he faced a loss of support from his own party and a hostile opposition is also something he's made clear.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jank · 04-11-2011 02:49AM

Somebody has to take the medicine but nobody wants to. The Greeks want to have it both ways. Be within the euro but no Austerity. It is either one or the other and of course there are no guarantees that either option will be "better". As I said someone has to take the medicine and then go from there. 2 years later we are still at it

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 03:01AM

jank wrote: »

Somebody has to take the medicine but nobody wants to. The Greeks want to have it both ways. Be within the euro but no Austerity. It is either one or the other and of course there are no guarantees that either option will be "better". As I said someone has to take the medicine and then go from there. 2 years later we are still at it

That's what I think Papandreou is hoping to crystallise. And I really can't see any other way of it happening.

cordially,
Scofflaw

cyberhog · 04-11-2011 03:46AM

So to sum up

Papandreou infuriates our EU overlords Merkel and Sarkozy by deciding to hold a referendum without running the idea past them.

Papandreou is then summoned to appear before our EU overlords where he is given an almighty dressing down and ordered to scrap the referendum or else.

Papandreou then returns to Greece with his tail between his legs try's to deflect attention from the fact that he has been severely reprimanded by issuing a series of mixed messages to the media.

and now Sarkozy has the bare face cheek to say

“I don’t want to give any idea that we’re trying to get involved in Greek domestic politics....

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/1104/1224307040811.html

Reality does not get more Orwellian than this.

Arfan · 04-11-2011 10:27AM

cyberhog wrote: »

So to sum up

Papandreou infuriates our EU overlords Merkel and Sarkozy by deciding to hold a referendum without running the idea past them.

Papandreou is then summoned to appear before our EU overlords where he is given an almighty dressing down and ordered to scrap the referendum or else.

Papandreou then returns to Greece with his tail between his legs try's to deflect attention from the fact that he has been severely reprimanded by issuing a series of mixed messages to the media.

and now Sarkozy has the bare face cheek to say

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/1104/1224307040811.html

Reality does not get more Orwellian than this.

That's an excellent summary of what didn't happen.

djpbarry · 04-11-2011 10:43AM

cyberhog wrote: »

Reality does not get more Orwellian than this.

Your description of events is about as far removed from reality as Greece is from sound financial planning.

Duke Leonal Felmet · 04-11-2011 10:56AM

cyberhog wrote: »

So to sum up

Papandreou infuriates our EU overlords Merkel and Sarkozy by deciding to hold a referendum without running the idea past them.

Papandreou is then summoned to appear before our EU overlords where he is given an almighty dressing down and ordered to scrap the referendum or else.

Papandreou then returns to Greece with his tail between his legs try's to deflect attention from the fact that he has been severely reprimanded by issuing a series of mixed messages to the media.

and now Sarkozy has the bare face cheek to say

“I don’t want to give any idea that we’re trying to get involved in Greek domestic politics....

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/1104/1224307040811.html

Reality does not get more Orwellian than this.

I really think the term 'Orwellian' needs to be included in the list of terms that can be classed as 'Godwinian'.

Such an abused and misused term.

oscarBravo · 04-11-2011 10:57AM

jank wrote: »

The Greeks want to have it both ways. Be within the euro but no Austerity. It is either one or the other...

I can't see any way that austerity can be avoided. If I've lived beyond my means for decades, running up enormous personal debt, then - whether I have to repay the existing debt or not - sooner or later I have to live within my means.

Greece can't afford its "lifestyle"; it doesn't have the tax receipts to pay for its current spending (sounds familiar, somehow). Austerity is going to have to happen.

seamus · 04-11-2011 11:14AM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I can't see any way that austerity can be avoided.

They can minimise it, but it would mean a total overhaul of their taxation system. Greece's problem doesn't seem to be quite so much that they're spending too much, rather that they're not collecting enough. Like a business who never chases up their invoices.

We're familiar with tax evasion in this country, but in Greece it's on a whole new level. For example, there are More Porsche Cayenne's in Greece than €50,000+ taxpayers. As we all know, even a €50,000 income won't allow you to afford a Cayenne, so the scale of the taxpaying problem in Greece can't be underestimated. It's not a mere single-figure percentage that Greece are losing out in taxes.

Although this kind of economic ignorance isn't unique - here in Ireland we recognise that things need to change but we oppose any cuts and any tax hikes. But we tend to only grumble or have half-arsed protests. In Greece though they don't want any cuts, but they also don't seem to want to pay any tax, and are willing to defend this viewpoint violently.

Whatever happens, there's a turbulent time in store for Greece. They have to get their house in order.

K-9 · 04-11-2011 11:19AM

seamus wrote: »

They can minimise it, but it would mean a total overhaul of their taxation system. Greece's problem doesn't seem to be quite so much that they're spending too much, rather that they're not collecting enough. Like a business who never chases up their invoices.

We're familiar with tax evasion in this country, but in Greece it's on a whole new level. For example, there are More Porsche Cayenne's in Greece than €50,000+ taxpayers. As we all know, even a €50,000 income won't allow you to afford a Cayenne, so the scale of the taxpaying problem in Greece can't be underestimated. It's not a mere single-figure percentage that Greece are losing out in taxes.

Although this kind of economic ignorance isn't unique - here in Ireland we recognise that things need to change but we oppose any cuts and any tax hikes. But we tend to only grumble or have half-arsed protests. In Greece though they don't want any cuts, but they also don't seem to want to pay any tax, and are willing to defend this viewpoint violently.

Whatever happens, there's a turbulent time in store for Greece. They have to get their house in order.

In fairness there are doubts about that reports veracity but tax evasion seems endemic there, people not wanting to pay tax, yet have a massive public service and high wages and pensions.

NinjaK · 04-11-2011 11:19AM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I think they have had their say, and spent it, many times over.

They should have a say for their own future, whether they want this bailout or not.

Duke Leonal Felmet · 04-11-2011 11:33AM

NinjaK wrote: »

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I think they have had their say, and spent it, many times over.

They should have a say for their own future, whether they want this bailout or not.

I agree, so they can vote no, and the Eurozone can boot them out. Then they can find a way of sorting their problems on their own.

jonniebgood1 · 04-11-2011 12:09PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

We'll see - if Greece manages to come out of this with some kind of national unity government, I'll consider myself largely vindicated. After all, my version is what Papandreou says he was doing - that he was doing it because he faced a loss of support from his own party and a hostile opposition is also something he's made clear.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Your not really backing yourself into a corner there- Whether he gets support or not a national unity government is certain at this stage, even if its only for a month. I don't see any advantage that he has gained this week either for himself or for Greece. He seems to have less support in his own party than he had before the referendum move and the European leaders will now dig their heels in to force harsh measure more strongly than they previously did.

jonniebgood1 · 04-11-2011 12:13PM

Arfan wrote: »

Originally Posted by cyberhog View Post
So to sum up

Papandreou infuriates our EU overlords Merkel and Sarkozy by deciding to hold a referendum without running the idea past them.

Papandreou is then summoned to appear before our EU overlords where he is given an almighty dressing down and ordered to scrap the referendum or else.

Papandreou then returns to Greece with his tail between his legs try's to deflect attention from the fact that he has been severely reprimanded by issuing a series of mixed messages to the media.

and now Sarkozy has the bare face cheek to say...

That's an excellent summary of what didn't happen.

Apart from the EU overlords scrapping the referendum (the greeks stopped this themselves) what part did not happen?

Duke Leonal Felmet · 04-11-2011 12:17PM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Arfan wrote: »

Originally Posted by cyberhog View Post
So to sum up

Papandreou infuriates our EU overlords Merkel and Sarkozy by deciding to hold a referendum without running the idea past them.

Papandreou is then summoned to appear before our EU overlords where he is given an almighty dressing down and ordered to scrap the referendum or else.

Papandreou then returns to Greece with his tail between his legs try's to deflect attention from the fact that he has been severely reprimanded by issuing a series of mixed messages to the media.

and now Sarkozy has the bare face cheek to say...

That's an excellent summary of what didn't happen.

Apart from the EU overlords scrapping the referendum (the greeks stopped this themselves) what part did not happen?

Well, everything after the 'apart from' in your sentence is the important part. So it is a sneaky move for you to phrase your post this way.

K-9 · 04-11-2011 12:28PM

The reports from the EU seemed to suggest that the Greeks had used the referendum as a bargaining chip in talks about the deal. That seemed to be what annoyed Sarkozy et al. For him to then and go and use it regardless probably pissed them of a bit!

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 12:33PM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Your not really backing yourself into a corner there- Whether he gets support or not a national unity government is certain at this stage, even if its only for a month. I don't see any advantage that he has gained this week either for himself or for Greece. He seems to have less support in his own party than he had before the referendum move and the European leaders will now dig their heels in to force harsh measure more strongly than they previously did.

A week ago there was no sign of a national unity government.

part from the EU overlords scrapping the referendum (the greeks stopped this themselves) what part did not happen?

As the Duke says, the fact that that bit didn't happen renders the rest of the narrative completely false.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Ping Chow Chi · 04-11-2011 12:38PM

Scofflaw wrote: »

After all, my version is what Papandreou says he was doing - that he was doing it because he faced a loss of support from his own party and a hostile opposition is also something he's made clear.

cordially,
Scofflaw

So you saying you believe that a politician was telling the truth...well I suppose there is always a first for everything. My gut tells me he made a mistake, and now is trying he very best to put good spin on it. I could be wrong though.

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 12:52PM

Ping Chow Chi wrote: »

So you saying you believe that a politician was telling the truth...well I suppose there is always a first for everything. My gut tells me he made a mistake, and now is trying he very best to put good spin on it. I could be wrong though.

It's certainly possible he may have underestimated how fast and how hard he'd get stabbed in the back by his party, and he may genuinely believe that a referendum is the right thing to do - I agree with him there.

But whether the referendum produced unity in the parliament by demonstrating the public's approval or disapproval of the deal, or produced it merely through the threat of referendum, is immaterial, really. Either way you get to a position where the deal Papandreou negotiated is clearly either rejected or accepted, which is what Greece (and the rest of Europe) needs.

As I said, before this showdown, there was no sign of a national unity government in Greece - now there is. The deal itself didn't produce it.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jonniebgood1 · 04-11-2011 03:27PM

Duke Leonal Felmet wrote: »

Well, everything after the 'apart from' in your sentence is the important part. So it is a sneaky move for you to phrase your post this way.

Sneaky? Not at all. If you read the launguage used I was perfectly clear in my query.

Scofflaw wrote: »

As the Duke says, the fact that that bit didn't happen renders the rest of the narrative completely false.

Whilst that bit did'nt happen directly it indirectly became the outcome. I don't see how one part being inaccurate makes the rest of the summary given false. None of the rest of the summary was a result of or subject to that part being correct so using it to dismiss out of hand the 'narrative' is to easy as it avoids the potential of the other points raised.

Scofflaw wrote: »

A week ago there was no sign of a national unity government.

I agree but then a week ago or further back there was no need for a national government. Do we presume that if Papandreou did not announce a referendum that he faced being ousted from power (i.e. this would create a need for national government).

Duke Leonal Felmet · 04-11-2011 03:39PM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Duke Leonal Felmet wrote: »

Well, everything after the 'apart from' in your sentence is the important part. So it is a sneaky move for you to phrase your post this way.

Sneaky? Not at all. If you read the launguage used I was perfectly clear in my query.

It was perfectly clear that you were being underhanded, yes. By attempting to block discussion on the most pertinent element of the phrase you cheaply attempted to sidestep the issue of you simply being wrong.

But everyone saw that... except you apparantly.

Amusing.

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 03:47PM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

Sneaky? Not at all. If you read the launguage used I was perfectly clear in my query.

Whilst that bit did'nt happen directly it indirectly became the outcome. I don't see how one part being inaccurate makes the rest of the summary given false. None of the rest of the summary was a result of or subject to that part being correct so using it to dismiss out of hand the 'narrative' is to easy as it avoids the potential of the other points raised.

But the narrative requires it to happen directly - Sarkozy & Merkel bully Papandreou into withdrawing his referendum. It didn't happen that way, though, and your "indirectly" means nothing more than "the two events both happened".

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

I agree but then a week ago or further back there was no need for a national government. Do we presume that if Papandreou did not announce a referendum that he faced being ousted from power (i.e. this would create a need for national government).

A week ago there was "no need" for a Greek government of national unity? Be serious.

cordially,
Scofflaw

jonniebgood1 · 04-11-2011 05:05PM

Duke Leonal Felmet wrote: »

It was perfectly clear that you were being underhanded, yes. By attempting to block discussion on the most pertinent element of the phrase you cheaply attempted to sidestep the issue of you simply being wrong.

But everyone saw that... except you apparantly.

Amusing.

I don't wish to start in a discussion on who is underhand and who is'nt. I don't see the point as this is just a discussion of opinions.

Scofflaw wrote: »

But the narrative requires it to happen directly - Sarkozy & Merkel bully Papandreou into withdrawing his referendum. It didn't happen that way, though, and your "indirectly" means nothing more than "the two events both happened".

A week ago there was "no need" for a Greek government of national unity? Be serious.

Perhaps I'm arguing pedantics, but- the Eurozone threatens Greece. Greek MP's and finance ministers, etc freak out. They decide that if Papandreou continues to push for a refernedum that they will remove him from office immediately. When he realises this he announces that there won't be a referendum.
As you say the 2 events did happen which I agree but there is also IMO an indirect link which is the MP's reaction to the threats. Do you think the 2 events are not linked?

A need for a national government is objectionable and I cannot prove that they did or did'nt need it.

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 05:24PM

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

I don't wish to start in a discussion on who is underhand and who is'nt. I don't see the point as this is just a discussion of opinions.

Perhaps I'm arguing pedantics, but- the Eurozone threatens Greece. Greek MP's and finance ministers, etc freak out. They decide that if Papandreou continues to push for a refernedum that they will remove him from office immediately. When he realises this he announces that there won't be a referendum.
As you say the 2 events did happen which I agree but there is also IMO an indirect link which is the MP's reaction to the threats. Do you think the 2 events are not linked?

The opposition to the idea of a referendum from within PASOK was immediate, though - that is, before any rumblings from Merkozy. Several Cabinet members were immediately on record saying there wouldn't be a referendum.

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

A need for a national government is objectionable and I cannot prove that they did or did'nt need it.

If we needed a Tallaght Strategy back in the Eighties, I think we can safely say the need for a national unity government in Greece has been clear for some time. Certainly there's nothing in the new deal for Greece that objectively increases the requirement for such a government this week as opposed to last, but this is the week it's likelier to happen.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 05:25PM

Letter from Papandreou to Enda, dated 1st November:

Athens, 1 November 2011

H.E. Mr. Enda Kenny
Taoiseach of Ireland

Dear Taoiseach,

The decision of the European Council of 26 October is of historical significance for Greece. Thanks to the support of the Euro Area Member States, the European institutions (European Commission, ECB) and the IMF, Greece acquires a new multi---annual adjustment programme. The 26 October decision also provides for a more substantial contribution of the private sector to a plan that makes the Greek public debt sustainable according to the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.

The Greek government is fully aware of its obligations towards the Euro Area Member States, the European institutions and the IMF. It shares these objectives as necessary to make the greek economy a sustainable one. We see as fundamental to the 26 October decision the implementation of all policy measures in the areas of fiscal adjustment, structural reforms and privatizations.

The Greek government is decided to fully honour these obligations, as they appear in the latest version of the MEFP, the MoU and the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy. Therefore, all implementation Laws that have been voted by the Greek Parliament will be effectively implemented without any slippages. Our decisiveness also refers to our commitments as concerns the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as have been agreed with the Troika, and which aim at producing primary surpluses in 2012.

In the framework of the 26 October decision, the Greek government stands ready to agree with the Troika and its institutional partners on a new programme and a new loan agreement by the end of 2011. Also, the Greek government together with the Euro Working Group, the IMF and the euro area member states have already started the preparations for the new PSI, which aims at reducing the Greek debt to 120% of GDP by 2020, following a 50% reduction in the privately held debt.

The Greek government will move swiftly and decisively, in close cooperation with its institutional partners, to achieve a high participation rate for the private sector involvement.

As you are aware, the domestic political and social situation in Greece is particularly tense and critical. The Greek Government considers these decisions of historical importance for the country and the Greek people. However, all opposition parties are absolutely and intensely opposed to the Government’s policies and have fiercely and publicly rejected the October 26 decisions. General strikes, occupations of public buildings, shutting down the Ministry of Finance, disrupting the educational process in schools and universities, demonstrations, violent clashes in Athens and other cities, have become an everyday occurrence.

On October 28, just one day after the decision of October 26/27, during the celebrations for the country’s national day, a group of demonstrators blocked the traditional parade; due to that, the President of the Republic had to leave the officials’ gallery.

The opposition and a number of opinion makers have raised questions concerning the government’s legitimacy and are now pushing for immediate elections in order to overturn the decision we have taken.
Under these conditions, the Greek government is called to weigh upon two equally crucial national priorities: The need to have an effective implementation of the 26 October decision and the need for the Greek people to express themselves in a democratic and peaceful way and put an end to the current political situation and social crisis.

I have already called for a confidence vote in the Greek Parliament. A positive vote of confidence will enable us to negotiate with our institutional partners and the private sector for a new adjustment programme and a new private sector involvement and allow us to honour our commitments that stem from the MoU/MEFP and the Medium---Term Fiscal Strategy.

I am confident that the government will be given a renewed confidence vote.

Following the conclusion and the signing of the relevant agreements or the other necessary legal acts for the new programme, the new loan and the new PSI, the whole package will be submitted for approval, in accordance with our legal procedures, to the people via a referendum.

The referendum will involve exclusively the issue of the new programme and the new loan that are to be agreed; neither the issue of the existing Greek loan facility nor any other issues regarding the functioning of the Eurozone will be addressed. Greece fully supports the decisions related to the Eurozone that we took last week in Brussels.

I am confident that the Parliament will ratify the agreements that we have concluded and the decisions that we have issued. I also believe that in this referendum the Greek people, who in their vast majority want the country to remain steadfastly within the euro area, will decide in a mature and responsible way.

It is also my sincere hope that the opposition parties will live up to their historic responsibilities not only towards the Greek people but also towards our European partners and the European and international institutions.

Greece is a responsible country with a long history. It is a reliable partner which is currently facing fiscal and competitiveness problems, but we are determined to return to normality and claim our fair position in the European and international economy.

Such a target can be better served if we manage to achieve a united domestic front and a political continuity concerning our international commitments, by which we shall fully stand.

The institutional processes that we have initiated will strengthen the implementation mechanisms of our commitments and honour the signature of Greece. I am convinced that our people, expressing their free will, will themselves realise what is at stake and will appreciate the long term potential of the new programme, to make Greece a sustainable, transparent and just economy. And this will also ensure we remain an equal partner within the Euro Area.

Yours sincerely,
George A. Papandreou

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sand · 04-11-2011 09:31PM

Whats the value of a national unity government when the prospect of a referendum of the people fills the Eurozone with gut wrenching dread? Are they going to suspend national elections in Greece too in case the wrong party gets elected?

As I noted when this referendum was first mooted, this could help the Greeks feel like they "owned" the deal - they would have examined the arguments, understood the implications, weighed up the various benefits and drawbacks and made a straightfoward decision which they would then live by.

The withdrawal of the referendum has two implications:

1 - It underlines that even advocates of the deal have no faith in it. They dont believe that they are able to explain why a deal which results in 120% GDP debt burden for Greece after many years, if everything goes fantastic, is the best deal available. If it is a good deal, the best deal, then why is it so hard to explain to the Greek people? I mean - I can do it for them. Hey Greece, youre broke. You have no money. You can do austerity over 10 years, or you can do it over 10 days. Your call. (P.S. 10 days is the better option - as Merkel and Sarkozy are learning, if youre going to cut off a gangrenous limb best do it sooner rather than later).

2 - It reminds the Greeks that this deal isnt *for* them. They have little or no voice in it. Its not something they have decided upon, its something that has been decided for them. This gives everyone the opportunity to engage in self-pity and semi-patriotic excuses for foot dragging and non-involvement.

National unity governments or not, until the Greeks feel like they have been the ones to decide they wont feel involved. Hence any austerity plan will fail. We are in for more than a decade of constant missed targets, downgrades and denial until finally the ECB and various EU entities recognise they arent going to get all their money back out of Greece. And in the meantime, the Greeks are going to passively resist the austerity programme as practically a patriotic duty.

oscarBravo · 04-11-2011 09:40PM

Sand wrote: »

You have no money. You can do austerity over 10 years, or you can do it over 10 days. Your call.

This is a meme that seems to have quiet currency - that somehow the choice is between long-term austerity, or some other unspecified but vastly superior choice.

Can you explain how exactly ten days of austerity is going to work? Greece defaults on its debts, and in less than two weeks the markets are queueing up to lend them the money to pay for a generous welfare state without bothering to collect taxes? I don't get it.

Greece has fundamentally the same problem we've had - an unsustainable current deficit. That has to be fixed. Whether they actually start making people pay taxes or cut their public sector pay bill and social welfare, it has to happen.

Unless I'm missing something.

Duke Leonal Felmet · 04-11-2011 09:45PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

This is a meme that seems to have quiet currency - that somehow the choice is between long-term austerity, or some other unspecified but vastly superior choice.

Can you explain how exactly ten days of austerity is going to work? Greece defaults on its debts, and in less than two weeks the markets are queueing up to lend them the money to pay for a generous welfare state without bothering to collect taxes? I don't get it.

Greece has fundamentally the same problem we've had - an unsustainable current deficit. That has to be fixed. Whether they actually start making people pay taxes or cut their public sector pay bill and social welfare, it has to happen.

Unless I'm missing something.

I'm sure a rational explanation is on the cards. I'm absolutely certain of it.

Greeks having a referendum on bailout

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