Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Greeks having a referendum on bailout

  • 31-10-2011 9:34pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Well- its been announced that instead of being meek little European citizens and bowing their heads in thanks to Brussels, that the Greeks are to hold a referendum on whether to accept the 120 Billion bailout package agreed for them last week........

    Not sure if After Hours is an appropriate venue (mods feel free to move this thread if appropriate).

    Personally I was hoping that the agreement last week had drawn a line in the sand and was going to calm things down somewhat- whereas it now seems highly likely that there could potentially be a massive public upswelling and consequent no-vote in Greece- which could potentially mean an almost immediate uncontrolled default on Greek debt, and the eviction of Greece from the Eurozone.

    What would this mean for the other peripheral countries- Portugal and Ireland- alongside the elephants in the corner (Spain- and they who must not be mentioned- Italy) and the other EU countries who are up to their little necks in debt but have managed to keep out of the media such as Belgium?

    We have been far too accepting of the medicine being doled out to us thus far in Ireland- indeed when the budget gets delivered in December and then January comes round and there is another batch of Anglo Bank bonds due to be repaid- will that be enough- will it be the brick that breaks the camel's back. Oops I meant to say 'straw'.........

    Personally I think the whole European integration project was misconstrued- well, it was a good idea but the implementation was pretty diabolical. The Greek problems at the moment are simply issues coming to the fore that should have been dealt with 15-20 years ago- I mean how stupid do you have to be to put faith in the bizarre statistics they were feeding everyone? The current government's refrain that it was the actions of their predecessors- seems oddly in chorus with whats happening here- though thankfully our CSO are impeccable with their statistics, if you can actually decipher them......


«13456789

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,072 ✭✭✭✭My name is URL


    Nice of them to give the plebs a say in the matter. They're like turkeys voting for Christmas whatever the outcome. And the government can absolve themselves by passing the buck, again :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭femur61


    http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16100341

    If this is not passed I think it will be a disaster for Eurozone. To me and a lot of people it seems the Greeks are a law onto themselves. They are broke and when they default the consequnces will be so severe for the rest of Europe, especially the French who have huge exposure to Greece. No date as of yet seems to be set for referendum but I'd say Angela is loosing a bit of sleep.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Boskowski


    I don't think it will be a disaster for the eurozone? Why would it be?
    Greece will simply have to leave the Euro. Disaster for Greece if anything.
    Mad kind of move anyway. Apparently the Greek constitution specifically forbids referendums on financial matters?!?

    Having said that I applaud Papandreou. It's such a far reaching decision, it's only fair to have the people decide where they want to see their country going. Wish a certain Mr Lenihan had made the same call little over 3 years ago. It was clearly neither in his compete ce nor did he have the mandate for his mad decision.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,895 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    I'm not a fan of referendums to decide complex questions. The answer usually tends to be to a different question. That might not be such a problem in this case - I doubt any other question will be more pressing.

    That said, the Greeks have played a limited hand perfectly. The idea of Greece upsetting the apple cart will worry Merkel and Sarkozy. It could be a very good negotiating ploy by the Greeks. Merkel and Sarkozy might talk tough (remember the bravado of "burning Greece"?), but they need this deal more than any Greek citizen does so theyve an incentive to ensure its not derailed.

    As for the Greeks, nothing would be more damaging than to force this deal through over their objections. If the deal truly is in the Greek interest, then it should be sold as such and explained to them in terms other than frankly ridiculous scaremongering. It should be apparent austerity cant be forced down the throats of the Greeks from Berlin - the Greeks have to buy into it, see it in their interest. If they can, and if they express it in the referedum then they will own the decision and will be empowered and theres a small chance the plan might work.

    Forcing it through as a set of dictates from Berlin will ensure its failure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,644 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Insanity or an extremely dangerous and risky political play. I can't decide which.


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Greece to hold referendum eh?




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Boskowski


    Why does everyone say in this discussion 'dictate from Berlin', 'Berlin this, Berlin that'? It's not Berlin, it's the bloody EU.
    Germany is not forcing anyone and hss no intention doing so it just happens to be the case that every fkn basketcase looks to Berlin for money these days.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,219 ✭✭✭woodoo


    Their people will be deciding on going back to the drachma or staying in the euro and owing monstrous debt regardless of the 50% write down.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,580 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    Sand wrote: »
    It should be apparent austerity cant be forced down the throats of the Greeks from Berlin
    Brussels? Frankfurt? All that needs to happen is for the money supply to be cut off.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭Sticky_Fingers


    Boskowski wrote: »
    Why does everyone say in this discussion 'dictate from Berlin', 'Berlin this, Berlin that'? It's not Berlin, it's the bloody EU.
    Germany is not forcing anyone and hss no intention doing so it just happens to be the case that every fkn basketcase looks to Berlin for money these days.
    How about Berlin and Paris so? Lets call a spade a spade here, they are the boys calling the shots in the ECB/EU, to try and argue otherwise is nonsense.
    Victor wrote: »
    Brussels? Frankfurt? All that needs to happen is for hte money supply to be cut off.
    True but at least the Greek people are in charge of the tap this time and can choose to swallow the bailout or not. Their economy will live or die by their own hand and no one elses.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Boskowski wrote: »
    Why does everyone say in this discussion 'dictate from Berlin', 'Berlin this, Berlin that'? It's not Berlin, it's the bloody EU.
    Germany is not forcing anyone and hss no intention doing so it just happens to be the case that every fkn basketcase looks to Berlin for money these days.

    I'm sick of hearing this too. Yes the Germans would have taken some losses if Greece or Ireland defaulted but they didn't have to back bailing anyone out. The EU are making these decision even if the Germans are bankrolling it.

    Of course their decisions are not altogether altruistic but I wonder would we have been so generous in their shoes. I'm pretty sure we wouldn't.
    True but at least the Greek people are in charge of the tap this time and can choose to swallow the bailout or not. Their economy will live or die by their own hand and no one elses.

    Given how they got to where they are now I wouldn't be at all surprised to find they shoot themselves in the foot.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭femur61


    Boskowski wrote: »
    I don't think it will be a disaster for the eurozone? Why would it be?
    Greece will simply have to leave the Euro. Disaster for Greece if anything.
    Mad kind of move anyway. Apparently the Greek constitution specifically forbids referendums on financial matters?!?

    Having said that I applaud Papandreou. It's such a far reaching decision, it's only fair to have the people decide where they want to see their country going. Wish a certain Mr Lenihan had made the same call little over 3 years ago. It was clearly neither in his compete ce nor did he have the mandate for his mad decision.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8578337/The-countries-most-exposed-to-Greek-debt.html

    Heres a list of the amounts banks in the EU are exposed to Greek debt. If they have to suffer loses then we would suffer as Germany would have to cover Greek default henc less money for us!

    France exposure to Greek debt is 32% and Germany 40%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    nesf wrote: »
    Insanity or an extremely dangerous and risky political play. I can't decide which.

    When one is backed into a corner (whether or not due to their own doing) then it becomes easier to take on risk
    We here in Ireland should start hinting of a referendum too, if only to focus the minds of bickering euro politicians

    Boskowski wrote: »
    Why does everyone say in this discussion 'dictate from Berlin', 'Berlin this, Berlin that'? It's not Berlin, it's the bloody EU.
    Germany is not forcing anyone and hss no intention doing so it just happens to be the case that every fkn basketcase looks to Berlin for money these days.

    Germany is doing pretty well out of a currency thats being weakened due to constant ****ups, if they really were pissed off then they would go back to the dmark, but that would kill their industry exports


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    I lived in Greece for a while. There is no way this will be passed. The Greeks will view it as austerity and loss of sovereignty against austerity. They will vote no. The money borrowed is already in the country and will be shared around via the economy. Why pay it back? Their sovereignty is far more important to them.

    One of the most important days in the Greek calendar is 'Ochi' (no!) day when the Greek government said no to Axis forces entering Greece. This sense of pride will come to the fore again.

    Fair play to them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Sounds like a cynical political move to me by Papandreou. Rather than make a decision that's in the country's best interests, he's made a move in his own best interests to try and curry voter favour by putting this to referendum.

    His end game (IMO) is that this gets defeated, the government dissolves, and he comes out fighting at the next election playing the "I'm with you, I let you make the decision" card.

    If he didn't put this to referendum, he would have to step down in short time anyway and then would have no chance of re-election. This is just an attempt to save his own skin, he doesn't care what happens to the country. I shouldn't be surprised though, he is a politician after all.

    Referendums are for social decisions, not economic ones.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭Samba


    The way the Greeks have played is anything but fair imo.

    http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

    (article is too long to post, sorry for folks on their phones)

    Tax evasion is like a national past time over there, now that tax payments will be scrutinised more closely and the fact that they will have to pay more, more or less means it's a certainty this won't pass.

    I'm not sure what the Greek government has up its sleeve but something sparked this announcement and I'm curious to know what exactly it was.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭Dirk Gently


    Samba wrote: »
    I'm not sure what the Greek government has up its sleeve but something sparked this announcement and I'm curious to know what exactly it was.
    Maybe it's a realisation that they can't pay and the social unrest means austerity programmes are pissing against the wind while paying back bail out money. There does come a point where short term chaos is the better option to a programme which will never work given Greek civil resistance to it. This way they get to default 100% and have a short chaotic transition to their own currency rather than possibly decades of social unrest as austerity after austerity and repayment after repayment fails.

    The fact that it's going to referendum means the Greek PM has already conceded that the bailout programme is unworkable. It was inevitable that Greece was going to default, the only surprise is that the pm decided to do it via referendum. In a way I don't blame him, it's a huge no win call to have hanging on him. At least with the referendum there will be an air of democracy and collective responsibility about what's in store for them and they can get on with it as opposed to a chaos percieved to be inflicted on them from government or EU level which would be resented more and cause more division.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 963 ✭✭✭NinjaK


    Giving them a say on their own future! Madness I say!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 899 ✭✭✭bauderline


    At long last we enter the end game, this should have happened two years IMHO, it has caused untold damage by dragging on this long simply so that Germany and France could shield their banks from the hit.

    They all now need to face reality and take preemptive action rather than wait for a greek vote, letting this drag on to the new year would be utter madness, time to reach for the eject button....

    Goodbye and good luck Greece...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,520 ✭✭✭Duke Leonal Felmet


    Tazz T wrote: »
    I lived in Greece for a while. There is no way this will be passed. The Greeks will view it as austerity and loss of sovereignty against austerity. They will vote no. The money borrowed is already in the country and will be shared around via the economy. Why pay it back? Their sovereignty is far more important to them.

    One of the most important days in the Greek calendar is 'Ochi' (no!) day when the Greek government said no to Axis forces entering Greece. This sense of pride will come to the fore again.

    Fair play to them.

    Do you think the next most important day will be when PS workers go to their ATM and find nothing there? I'd imagine you will hear a lot of Ochis, that day.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,859 ✭✭✭bmaxi


    I'm pretty sure the referendum in Greece will be lost, just as I'm pretty sure any referendum regarding the EU would be lost in Ireland, should it be put.
    I think Papandreou is taking a huge risk and not just with his own future or the future of Greece. I don't see what Greece has to gain from leaving the Euro as will surely be the case but I can imagine it will only be bad for those weaker countries remaining in it. Not being a financial expert, I'm not even sure how leaving the Euro would affect, in legal terms, their sovereign debt, presumably the debt would then be owed in drachmas, which would be a worthless currency.
    How could Greece, using drachmas, run it's day to day affairs, who would lend them money? It's an unholy mess IMO and I can only assume Papandreou is trying to squeeze better terms out of the EU, maybe it's time for the EU to cut it's losses and call him on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭carveone


    I'm trying to put aside my personal feelings in this regard given that I had started to withdraw from the stock market having retreived a lot of what remained of my tattered portfolio. I guess I'll have to give up on heating the house for a while now :(

    I think history is a good teacher. On the way in, Europe should have spotted the obvious wooden horse shape. On the way out Weimar Germany of the 1920s is a possible model for Greece's future - ie: hyperinflation.

    I think 1970s style inflation is in all our futures too, it's an inevitability given the amount of debt (it's something to think about when investing) but hyperinflation destroys entire countries.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 140 ✭✭Doirtybirdy


    seamus wrote: »
    Sounds like a cynical political move to me by Papandreou. Rather than make a decision that's in the country's best interests, he's made a move in his own best interests to try and curry voter favour by putting this to referendum.

    His end game (IMO) is that this gets defeated, the government dissolves, and he comes out fighting at the next election playing the "I'm with you, I let you make the decision" card.

    If he didn't put this to referendum, he would have to step down in short time anyway and then would have no chance of re-election. This is just an attempt to save his own skin, he doesn't care what happens to the country. I shouldn't be surprised though, he is a politician after all.

    Referendums are for social decisions, not economic ones.
    I agree with most of your post.
    However austerity of the size Greece needs is a social decision.
    Whether a yes or no the outcomes the same,the Greeks need to spend what they earn and no more.
    welcome to reality Greece


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,050 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    It's a fascinating turn of events anyway.

    Imagine the dilemna though of the Greek electorate. They know (at least I hope they do) that without EU/IMF cash, the atms will run empty and it is then really time to exit the Euro for them.

    Their standard of living will have to fall to a level comensurate with their tax revenues.

    I believe the public sector in Greece will largely vote in favour to keep the wages flowing and that a majority of their (very small) orivate sector will reject it. I'd say it'll be a close enough run thing, no landslides either way.

    I actually do agree with holding a referendum on this. The Greeks need to decide if they want decades of debt or to default and live with the immediate (nasty) consequences of that. I am sure the Greek PM is thinking about himself as well of course, but he certainly seems to have caught the centre right opposition totally off guard and now they must either support or oppose the deal/referendum, instead of just squaking from the sidelines (it was largely their doing that got Greece in the mess it's in, not the current socialist government)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭carveone


    It's also interesting to read how the Weimar Republic got into its mess - mostly due to cowardly political decisions by people who could only think about getting re-elected. I'm reminded of the recent quote by Jean-Claude Juncker: "we all know what has to be done; what we don’t know is how to get re-elected once we done it."

    Zerohedge article for the historically minded here.
    meglome wrote: »
    I'm sick of hearing this too. Yes the Germans would have taken some losses if Greece or Ireland defaulted but they didn't have to back bailing anyone out. The EU are making these decision even if the Germans are bankrolling it.

    This is my personal view only given that it's impossible to prove :rolleyes: It's mostly just a rant and strays into the arena of conspiracy theories. Plus it doesn't make any difference anyway:

    But I believe (but cannot prove) that if Ireland defaulted US banks would take a hit. Specifically the so called Gang of 12 (GS, JPM etc). You don't say no to them (or a Mr. Geithner) so we sucked it up and pointed the finger at Germany/France who are probably getting used to it by now. It's politically safer in Ireland to blame the EU and be quiet about the US.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    seamus wrote: »
    Sounds like a cynical political move to me by Papandreou. Rather than make a decision that's in the country's best interests, he's made a move in his own best interests to try and curry voter favour by putting this to referendum.

    His end game (IMO) is that this gets defeated, the government dissolves, and he comes out fighting at the next election playing the "I'm with you, I let you make the decision" card.

    If he didn't put this to referendum, he would have to step down in short time anyway and then would have no chance of re-election. This is just an attempt to save his own skin, he doesn't care what happens to the country. I shouldn't be surprised though, he is a politician after all.

    Referendums are for social decisions, not economic ones.

    I couldn't agree less - I think the proposal (likely to be derailed/defeated, sadly) is an excellent idea. It forces everyone to put up or shut up. If the Greeks vote No, then they wouldn't have stuck to the plan anyway. If they vote Yes, then they've agreed as a people to stick to the plan.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,809 ✭✭✭edanto


    Like Sand - I don't think a referendum is a good tool for this decision, but politically it's a master stroke to put it to a vote.

    If the final package isn't yet decided, then this gives the Greeks negotiating strength where previously they had none.

    I expect the Greeks will reject it, no matter what is on offer. A huge coalition that each have issues with various parts of the package will oppose it, and only a small number will support it completely.

    Next step drachma.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I couldn't agree less - I think the proposal (likely to be derailed/defeated, sadly) is an excellent idea. It forces everyone to put up or shut up. If the Greeks vote No, then they wouldn't have stuck to the plan anyway. If they vote Yes, then they've agreed as a people to stick to the plan.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    It'll be interesting to see what the opposition alternative consists of, a better deal or default.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Advertisement
  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,832 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    K-9 wrote: »
    It'll be interesting to see what the opposition alternative consists of, a better deal or default.
    It's a referendum. They tend not to have alternatives.

    It's a major fault with the whole concept of referendums. The opposition are under no obligation to propose a workable alternative; they simply have to reject what's on offer.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    A bit of historical perspective is missing here

    Greece has defaulted many times in past and the world did not end, Greece has also relatively recently emerged from military rule and is still heavily militarized


    The choice for the Greeks is

    a) Yes, endure 10+ (!!!) years of more austerity (real austerity that is none of that Crooked park austerity) as an EU vassal, with a possibility of the country reverting to military dictatorship in order to prevent civil war and unrest

    b) No, go Icelandic with a sharp shock for a month and then be out the doldrums in few years, be ejected from euro (somehow! maybe be pegged initially) and go back to drachma, then promptly devalue


    They are in a deep hole thanks to their politicians and incompetent EUro politicians, option a) could go very very wrong with the country reverting to its old self, that is a much scarier option than going thru' what Iceland did.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    A bit of historical perspective is missing here

    Greece has defaulted many times in past and the world did not end, Greece has also relatively recently emerged from military rule and is still heavily militarized


    The choice for the Greeks is

    a) Yes, endure 10+ (!!!) years of more austerity (real austerity that is none of that Crooked park austerity) as an EU vassal, with a possibility of the country reverting to military dictatorship in order to prevent civil war and unrest

    b) No, go Icelandic with a sharp shock for a month and then be out the doldrums in few years, be ejected from euro (somehow! maybe be pegged initially) and go back to drachma, then promptly devalue


    They are in a deep hole thanks to their politicians and incompetent EUro politicians, option a) could go very very wrong with the country reverting to its old self, that is a much scarier option than going thru' what Iceland did.

    I find it kind of hilariously sad that you think that these are mutually exclusive options.

    sadly amused,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 57 ✭✭Mr_Maestro


    Anyone just get the feeling that any sort of economic bailout is just delaying the inevitable. The ECB and other affiliated parties are trying to plug to many holes. Only a matter of time until the dam bursts IMO


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I find it kind of hilariously sad that you think that these are mutually exclusive options.

    sadly amused,
    Scofflaw

    Of course there could be a bit of each that happens, they are stuck between under a rock and a hard place

    I would choose the hard place option (going Icelandic) and be over and done with (and actually start solving the issues involved one way or another) than being under EU rock for a decade or more and risk the whole country imploding

    Anyways this could very well be a bluff, to focus the minds of certain euro politicians who continue to drag their feet and despite various proclamations of "victory over the markets" have only so far managed to come up with something that resembles a giant multi trillion ponzy derivatives scheme


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    How does one state go about getting kicked out of the eurozone or EU for that matter

    Its a serious question, what can the ECB do (if anything) and other EU+eurozone members do, there is no "ejection" mechanism

    Go to war to get their money back? well that wont go down well

    There already countries using euro and are not eurozone members, its impossible to stop other people/countries using a currency if there is demand for it so the country could very well endup dual currency (drachmas for public servants) euro for everyone else


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    ei.sdraob wrote: »

    b) No, go Icelandic with a sharp shock for a month and then be out the doldrums in few years, be ejected from euro (somehow! maybe be pegged initially) and go back to drachma, then promptly devalue

    Is Iceland really a valid comparison? As far as I can see they never defaulted on their sovereign debt, and in fact have been able to recently issue new bonds. Also they are actually in an IMF program right now, which allowed them to stabilise their economy.

    If Greece rejects this deal, nobody is going to loan them anything for years. They will have an immediate shock, and I would be doubtful that that would last just a month. I suspect that we would see charities in the EU raising money for the destitute in Greece, and food trucks being sent in. Unfortunately, if a Greece
    rejection precipitates an even worse Euro crisis it may be difficult to raise such charitable money. The EU may not have it to spare.

    ix.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,213 ✭✭✭ixtlan


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Possibly. I'm sure some of the no side will phrase the debate in these terms.The problem is that it may not work. One report said the vote could be early next year, which is plenty of time for panic to spread. Since the EU cannot start considering an improved deal until after a "no" and since any improved deal might be rejected also, it would seem that rationally the EU would need to consider preparing to remove Greece from the Euro... or collapsing the Euro itself...

    Very scary times indeed.

    Ix


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I couldn't agree less - I think the proposal (likely to be derailed/defeated, sadly) is an excellent idea. It forces everyone to put up or shut up. If the Greeks vote No, then they wouldn't have stuck to the plan anyway. If they vote Yes, then they've agreed as a people to stick to the plan.
    I agree actually, I thought of that after I'd posted. It's win-win for the Government because either way whatever happens is on the peoples' heads. There would be no need for rioting or protesting or whatever since the consequences are entirely down to the people's choice.

    In the medium-term it might actually improve market stability.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    Do you think the next most important day will be when PS workers go to their ATM and find nothing there? I'd imagine you will hear a lot of Ochis, that day.

    Yeah, sure, but they're in this problem because of the bloated and ridiculous PS system they can't afford. They can't seem to sack anyone, so the only thing left is not pay them. There is no other way. A huge majority of them have businesses and other jobs anyway.

    Greece will be back in business before you know it. A devalued drachma means tourism and exports will take off again. Greece has been defaulting since independence. Will be no more difficult than trying to pay back the bailout (which they can't) and they get to keep their economic sovereignty.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    ixtlan wrote: »
    Is Iceland really a valid comparison? As far as I can see they never defaulted on their sovereign debt, and in fact have been able to recently issue new bonds. Also they are actually in an IMF program right now, which allowed them to stabilise their economy.

    If Greece rejects this deal, nobody is going to loan them anything for years. They will have an immediate shock, and I would be doubtful that that would last just a month. I suspect that we would see charities in the EU raising money for the destitute in Greece, and food trucks being sent in. Unfortunately, if a Greece
    rejection precipitates an even worse Euro crisis it may be difficult to raise such charitable money. The EU may not have it to spare.

    ix.

    You don't know the Greeks. Thousands, especially on the islands are self-sufficient, living off the land and the sea. People will still eat. PS people will lose their jobs, that's all that'll happen. People will move from Athens back to their family homes. There'll be emigration like here. The Greeks will take this in their stride. Many will see it as an opportunity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭carveone


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    The news came out at 2pm yesterday (US time), 2 hours before market close. Noone seemed to worry until the pundits realised they could put this down as a new crisis and chase people out of positions (it's all a big game really). Banking stocks are starting to shrug it off now. It's a $60tn world economy, I really don't think whether Greece gets the $11bn for its next part of the bailout really matters. It's all perception...
    The upside to chaos is that there are always plenty of money-making opportunities. ;)

    If you don't lose your mind first. Look at the graphs of the DAX and the DOW. It's a rollercoaster... :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Of course there could be a bit of each that happens, they are stuck between under a rock and a hard place

    I would choose the hard place option (going Icelandic) and be over and done with (and actually start solving the issues involved one way or another) than being under EU rock for a decade or more and risk the whole country imploding

    First, the idea that Iceland is in some kind of happy place is still wrong - and second, doing what worked in a small, homogeneous society like Iceland might turn out not to be such a great idea for a much larger and deeply divided society like Greece.
    ei.sdraob wrote: »
    Anyways this could very well be a bluff, to focus the minds of certain euro politicians who continue to drag their feet and despite various proclamations of "victory over the markets" have only so far managed to come up with something that resembles a giant multi trillion ponzy derivatives scheme

    True - which would still make it a great move!

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Tazz T wrote: »
    You don't know the Greeks. Thousands, especially on the islands are self-sufficient, living off the land and the sea. People will still eat. PS people will lose their jobs, that's all that'll happen. People will move from Athens back to their family homes. There'll be emigration like here. The Greeks will take this in their stride. Many will see it as an opportunity.

    Subsistence agriculture, emigration, and cheap tourism is an opportunity?

    absolutely dazzled,
    Scofflaw


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,601 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Its looking likely that the Greek government will have collapsed by the days end. Serious political instability which has already caused markets across the world to nose dive today. Difficult to see all of this not ending in a disorderly default by Greece.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    and wont us irish feel like royal chumps for having taking such a beating ( allegedly for our own good ) like obedient children yet despite this the wide boys in greece keep getting a pass :mad:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    yeah , pity some people wont share the lotto numbers though :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    irishh_bob wrote: »
    and wont us irish feel like royal chumps for having taking such a beating ( allegedly for our own good ) like obedient children yet despite this the wide boys in greece keep getting a pass :mad:

    Given the idea is that the Greeks may be in the hands of the troika until 2027, you'll have plenty of time to find out, I guess. Unless of course they avail of the fabulous opportunities in the subsistence agriculture sector, of course.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,809 ✭✭✭edanto


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    I'm by no means an expert on the subject, but I'm fairly certain that the leading socialist types said little or nothing to support bailing out bust banks with public money.

    We are pretty far from Socialism now and fairly squarely in crony capitalism. Privatising public assets (at rock bottom contemporary prices) and making private debt public. Not Socialist. Rinse and repeat until it sinks in.


  • Advertisement
Advertisement