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Winter 2011/2012

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    #932
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    James Madden has single handedly removed the credibility of every forecaster in Europe.

    :mad:


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    #933
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Piers Corbyn (vaguely) answers a question about Ireland cold and snow this Dec
    QUESTION
    HI piers just viewed your youtube video on climate fools day and your forecast warning of snow and cold for uk west europe from around 27th of nov onwards i notice you dont mention ireland im in east ireland dublin does that mean you dont see much snow cold for Ireland?

    ANSWER
    JOHN (Ireland). Last Dec Ireland was mostly milder than Britain. There is more to be done but the difference might be less this Dec.
    Now im sure he's talking about Ireland being milder last Dec as a whole,certainly not the east.We shall see.if this cold does indeed arrive.


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    #934
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    And this from a guy over on NetWeather who purchased Piers foercast says this,

    Without wishing to be labelled a ramper.
    I got Piers Corbyn Novmber forecast today
    If he is right he will surprise a lot of religious model watchers in about 11 days time - as the models are showing no hints of cold.
    But don't forget exactly the same happened last year - in fact when I showed some of the local people here for November forecast they said - so pretty much a repeat of last November then?

    I know though - it is Piers - I know he has a bit of a reputation - but my heart and gut tell me things are changing....
    Indeed one of my amateur meteorologist friends has points out to me that while the op is staying mild more and more ensemble members are trending to cold.



    Interesting and not too long to wait to see if Piers forecasts crap.


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    #935
    Mr Benevolent
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    Let's face it, it's probably going to be a normal winter. LRFs have about the same standing as voodoo ceremonies in the real world. If you want to find out about snow we'll know about 36 hours before the event.


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    #936
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    its gettin more an more interesting everyday , with some forecasters callin for a mild winter and others callin for a seriously cold winter...

    time is shoving on so we'l soon see who's right...
    hopefully a good cold spell will show up on the charts soon ..

    either way i think whichever forecasters get it right , are only flukeing it anyway.. it is really impossible to give a proper accurate forcast of whats goin to happen a few days ahead not to talk about a few weeks ahead !!!

    come on cold :D:):cool:


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    #937
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Saw another rag paper with headlines of winter apocalypse on the way within weeks. Forget which paper to be honest- the distinctions don't seem all that important tbh.


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    #938
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,507 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    opinion guy wrote: »
    Saw another rag paper with headlines of winter apocalypse on the way within weeks. Forget which paper to be honest- the distinctions don't seem all that important tbh.

    Daily Express going big with Piers Corbyn's forecasts again.
    Remember the October snow?


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    #939
    opinion guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Daily Express going big with Piers Corbyn's forecasts again.
    Remember the October snow?

    Oh yeah the snow in October. Its was kind of warm and pre-melted when it fell really wasn't it ?:D


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    #940
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Ok so what are we looking at for this winter,well La Nina is forecast to become moderate to strong as we go through the winter months.

    nino34SSTMonE120.gif

    But im thinking a lag effect so weak La Nina signal to focus on.So height rises to our north then for DEC TO FEB

    825117717427871710.png

    The forecast shows that the average temperature during the period November 2011 - January 2012 will be approx. 0.9 ° C above normal for Greenland as a whole
    www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/gronland/akt_saesonprognose_gl.htm

    seneste_saesonprognose_gr.png

    Cold pooling nicely in the North
    sfctmp_01.fnl.gif

    Geopotential Height Anomalies for the last 90 days show clearly our disturbed weather.
    500z_90a.fnl.gif

    And this is shown here in a typical weak La Nina trend for October
    8255247209224141510.png

    Now for November it shows this kind of set up
    8255247209224141739.png


    And December
    8255247209224141955.png


    Arctic Oscillation has been mostly positive of late,will she tank soon?
    RClimate_AO_recent.png

    If so then we could all be wanting a snow plough:D

    l030.gif




    Take what you want from this but it's probably as good as any long range forecast out there.We simply don't know.


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    #941
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    redsunset wrote: »
    Ok so what are we looking at for this winter,well La Nina is forecast to become moderate to strong as we go through the winter months.

    nino34SSTMonE120.gif

    But im thinking a lag effect so weak La Nina signal to focus on.So height rises to our north then for DEC TO FEB

    825117717427871710.png

    The forecast shows that the average temperature during the period Novem



    Take what you want from this but it's probably as good as any long range forecast out there.We simply don't know.

    AS a amateur I don't get much of this but is it safe to say alot are thinking the cold snap is coming with snow for Ireland?


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    #942
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    jo06555 wrote: »
    AS a amateur I don't get much of this but is it safe to say alot are thinking the cold snap is coming with snow for Ireland?

    I don't think it's safe to say anything about what this winter is gonna be like:D


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    #943
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Long range forecasters such as Corbyn, if a bit of their forecast turns out to be right, they then claim 100 percent accuracy, conveniently ignoring how their forecast overall was wide of the mark. I notice James Madden does the same thing.


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    #944
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    redsunset wrote: »

    The forecast shows that the average temperature during the period November 2011 - January 2012 will be approx. 0.9 ° C above normal for Greenland as a whole
    www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/gronland/akt_saesonprognose_gl.htm


    How much above normal was the temperature in Greenland last December? Also if the QBO goes westerly doesn't that rule out winter staying cold the later into it we go?


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    #945
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Long range forecasters such as Corbyn, if a bit of their forecast turns out to be right, they then claim 100 percent accuracy, conveniently ignoring how their forecast overall was wide of the mark. I notice James Madden does the same thing.

    ah now thats not fair on james madde, on his website he called everything he got right and everything he got wrong. said he was right about november and december, and partly january, and said he was right about the winter being below average temps and says he forecast the general theme well and also spotted the early snowfall long before all other forecasters.but he out his hands up and admitted he got jan only partly right and feb very wrong as it turned out 2 degress above avg temp.

    i was going to post it i was reading it yday,but i cant seem to find it,i'll post if i find it.


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    #946
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    nacho libre wrote: »
    How much above normal was the temperature in Greenland last December? Also if the QBO goes westerly doesn't that rule out winter staying cold the later into it we go?

    i think i heard greenland and canada and north russia all ha temps something like 10 degrees above avg or something crazy like that:eek: i dont have a clue what qbo even is :p


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    #947
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    nacho libre wrote: »
    How much above normal was the temperature in Greenland last December? Also if the QBO goes westerly doesn't that rule out winter staying cold the later into it we go?

    Much higher just picking out 1 example from Greenland compared to the Normal

    180029.JPG

    As for the QBO the westerly has had its day in the sun,easterly starting to filter through the upper atmoshere while westerly in the lower.Will take time for easterly to totally dominate.


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    #948
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    redsunset wrote: »
    Much higher just picking out 1 example from Greenland compared to the Normal

    180029.JPG

    As for the QBO the westerly has had its day in the sun,easterly starting to filter through the upper atmoshere while westerly in the lower.Will take time for easterly to totally dominate.

    so its all looking good for cold winter then right?:D


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    #949
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so its all looking good for cold winter then right?:D

    I wouldn't say that but tis encouraging.


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    #950
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    This is a complete list of all long range forecasters I can think of and what they think winter 2011/2012 will turn out like.

    Piers Corbyn - an extreme cold period with huge snowfalls from 27th November to 28th December.

    James Madden - a very severe winter with temperature and snow fall records being beaten. He thinks All winter months will be excpetionally cold and all of uk will receive huge volumes of snow.

    Mark Vogan - cold setting in Mid December followed by an exceptionally cold January. An exceptionally cold and snowy winter as a whole.

    Climate Prediction Centre based in America- They were the ones to forecast the return of the la nina and they think this la nina will cause a very cold winter in uk across the entire northern hemisphere--http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/another-harsh-winter-is-expected-as-la-nina-returns/

    Brian Glaze- initial thoughts were that this Winter would be less severe but now clearly leaning toward a very cold winter. Full Winter forecast to be issued later. It will be interesing to hear what he says.

    Joe Bastardi-Weather Bell - very cold but not as severe as last yeat, but more prolonged cold than last year,all winter months below average temps and high amounts of snowfall. Full forecast soon to be realeased.

    AccuWeather - mild Winter with little snow.

    WeatherOnline - Avery cold winter, similar to Mark Vogans forecast, with cold setting in Mid December followed by a severely cold January.

    Met Office - No longer issue long range forecasts so they dont really count, but they have said that they dont think this winter will be as severe as everyone says its going to be.

    Positive Weather Solutions - talk of an extremely cold end to the month followed by a very cold December.

    NetWeather - mixed and less severe than last Winter, but still a cold winter overall for uk.

    Peter O'Donnel -Irish weather online-He has forecast a below average winter temps wise. He said december will be a mixed bag, with a few very cold snowy episodes mixed in with some milder interludes so an average decmber overall. He then said january could be very cold ,just as cold as last december but with more precipitaion so more snow. He stated that january could be 4-5 degrees below normal and seeing as january avg temp is 1 degree lower than december and december last year was 6 degrees below avg this january could be as cold as last december but even more snow. He then said feb would be mild, but then march would be quite cold with a return to wintry conditions.

    Daniel Smith- Hes on another forum ,a very good forecater in my opinion has forecast a very cold start to winter, with the second half of november being very cold and snowy and then whole of december being very cold and snowy also. Link to his website-http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-20112012/

    Weather services International -They have said this winter will be below avg temps wise. They say itll be cold and early winter but less severe than last year. They say the worst cold and snow will be in mid november to end of december, they believe the la nina will once again be strong so they think that jan and feb will be much warmer than nov/dec like last year.Link to their forecast-thttp://www.wsi.com/ec1c5e30-6883-47c2-bd44-ce26d03abddd/news-scheduled-forecast-archive-detail.htm

    TWO weather-They are going for very cold winter-Link to their forecast -http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-...6495-29657776/

    The Donegal Postman - He has said he does not think this winter will be severe at all. He thinks this winter will be a very average typical irish winter this year.

    US firm- that predicted last year's Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another very cold winter.

    Ken Ring- nobody knows, or seems to care enough to buy forecasts .

    Any forecasters on boards I could add to the list?:)

    So the general consensus definitely seems to be in favour of atleast a very cold second half of november and whole of december, and then some forecasters also going for a very cold january and or february.Interesting cant wait to see how this winter comes along, could go any way I suppose, just becuase most forecasters are saying its cold doesnt mean its going to be unfortunately though!
    Interesting,Accuweather seems to be the only forecaster going for a mild winter the whole way through, hope there wrong though!:)


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    #951
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    ah now thats not fair on james madde, on his website he called everything he got right and everything he got wrong. said he was right about november and december, and partly january, and said he was right about the winter being below average temps and says he forecast the general theme well and also spotted the early snowfall long before all other forecasters.but he out his hands up and admitted he got jan only partly right and feb very wrong as it turned out 2 degress above avg temp.

    i was going to post it i was reading it yday,but i cant seem to find it,i'll post if i find it.

    OK. fair enough. I don't follow his website closely. I was going on a video he posted on some site, whereby he seemed to be playing down that he got January and February wrong, by pointing out that, although February was much milder than he anticipated, the winter was still cold overall temperature wise. He had clearly called for winter 2010/11 to be cold and snowy throughout. Anyway thanks for your post with all the different long range winter forecasts.


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    #952
    jo06555
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    This is a complete list of all long range forecasters I can think of and what they think winter 2011/2012 will turn out like.

    Piers Corbyn - an extreme cold period with huge snowfalls from 27th November to 28th December.

    James Madden - a very severe winter with temperature and snow fall records being beaten. He thinks All winter months will be excpetionallt cold and all of uk will receive huge volumes of snow.

    Mark Vogan - cold setting in Mid December followed by an exceptionally cold January.

    Brian Glaze- initial thoughts were that this Winter would be less severe but now clearly leaning toward a very cold winter. Full Winter forecast to be issued later. It will be interesing to hear what he says.

    L
    Weather services International has said this winter will

    TWO weather going for very cold winter-Link to their forecast -http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-...6495-29657776/

    Any forecasters on boards I could add to the list?:)

    So the general consensus definitely seems to be in favour of atleast a very cold second half of november and whole of december, and then some forecasters also going for a very cold january and or february.Interesting cant wait to see how this winter comes along, could go any way I suppose, just becuase most forecasters are saying its cold doesnt mean its going to be unfortunately though!
    Interesting,Accuweather seems to be the only forecaster going for a mild winter the whole way through, hope there wrong though!:)

    Are most of these forecasters doing UK weather and if so and if north east of UK is to get worst of it does that mean southern Ireland will escape snowy conditions?


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    #953
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    jo06555 wrote: »
    Are most of these forecasters doing UK weather and if so and if north east of UK is to get worst of it does that mean southern Ireland will escape snowy conditions?

    i dont actually really know that much about weather sorry:o but ye all of them are doing uk weather, every single one on the list. well i dont know really i suppose the north always gets it worse, same in ireland really, like if south is getting -10 north or northeast will be getting -14 , i doubt if the rest of uk and ireland are getting a bad winter that the south will escape it. theyll just get a milder version than north or northeast does same as always!


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    #954
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    the ao index looks like its about to take a big dip towards the end of november and again in dec this always means one thing esp with nao dipping at same time
    get the jumpers out the artic blast is on the way :):pac::P


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    #955
    jimmy.d
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    the ao index looks like its about to take a big dip towards the end of november and again in dec this always means one thing esp with nao dipping at same time
    get the jumpers out the artic blast is on the way :):pac::P
    wheres the proof:rolleyes:


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    #956
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    the ao index looks like its about to take a big dip towards the end of november and again in dec this always means one thing esp with nao dipping at same time
    get the jumpers out the artic blast is on the way :):pac::P

    Any particular reason why you think this?


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    #957
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    so 2/15 or 1/15 (excluding met office) believe this winter will be mild. And funnily enough no forecasters think this winter will be average! one for mild 14 for cold! were there this many going for cold last year? and am i missing any forecasters people know of, I cant think of anymore.


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    #958
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so 2/14 or 1/14 (excluding met office) believe this winter will be mild. And funnily enough no forecasters think this winter will be average! one for mild 13 for cold! were there this many going for cold last year? and am i missing any forecasters people know of, I cant think of anymore.

    oh i knew i was forgetting one -the donegal postman- if youd count him:p but ill add him to the list anyway- so 2/16 going for mild- 14/16 goign for cold!


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    #959
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    and i also found another forecaster going for a cold winter from some tabloid article, it didnt say their name just that they were an american weather agency that correctly predicted the last 2 harsh winters''the US firm that predicted last year's Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another cold winter'' Ill add them to the list too. so thats 17 long range forecasters 15 of them going for a very cold winter :D looking good!


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    #960
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    and i also found another forecaster going for a cold winter from some tabloid article, it didnt say their name just that they were an american weather agency that correctly predicted the last 2 harsh winters''the US firm that predicted last year's Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another cold winter'' Ill add them to the list too. so thats 17 long range forecasters 15 of them going for a very cold winter :D looking good!

    Just hope it happens now. My county council has bought new gritters. I saw 2 the other day 2011 plates with big snow blade mounted on front.

    I hope we get the weather so their investment would be worthwhile.:D


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    #961
    JFKIRELAND
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭JFKIRELAND


    Hey Lucreto, What CC is that?
    Thanks
    JK


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