Leinster flooding - 24th October 2011

rosser44 wrote: »

I don't understand the point you are trying to make? Met Eireann did their job, warned us about the heavy rainfall that was expected. What happens after the rain falls or as a result of it is out of their hands. I agree with you fully that forecasting is not an exact science and I believe that the media like to twist anything factual they get in order to make a better story.

Why cant we all just get along?:pac:

Maybe we're both fighting the same corner and getting confused here?? :P

I was under the impression you were somehow supporting the CC as they weren't informed of exactly how much rain would fall...

Right. Well that's cleared up now!

Back to the crazy pics and vids!

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

anyone know what rathfarnham is like?

Where abouts?

From what I saw around the village is fine, no impact whatsoever.

Last night:

Down at the Dodder, between the Pearse Bridge and the Ely Arch the Water flow in the river was crazy. Never seem anything like it. Some flooding on the road but passable in a car. On the Lwr. Dodder Road from Ely Arch up towards Orwell Road was closed Water was three feet or so high. Dodder Park Road was also flooded and impassable.

I think there was a lot of flooding up on the Grange Road too.

Hi,

I have an appointment in dublin street,dundalk this evening, i'll be travelling from wexford.
Can anyone tell me if I should go, are these roads clear? I'll be travelling the n11 and m1.

Thanks everyone

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

thanks

rathfarnham road/terenure road crossroads to be specific

That road is fine. No flooding. Traffic WAS heavy this morning but considering Harold's Cross was shut to car it's understandable.

kingshankly wrote: »

Dundalk is fine and so is the m1

Thanks:)

Lol

nm wrote: »

Boyne Court, Harolds Cross this morning

Oh my god that's awful - I feel for those people. I remember too well what it was like for a lot of Cork people around the same time 2 years ago:(

All this blame game is rather stupid leaves and alike have nothing to do with floods.

For example last week my septic tank was full there for the system started to back up and eventually the system was full had i not got the system emptied there would have been no where else for the water and alike to go only flow over the toilet bowl and flood the bathroom.

This is the same with drains into rivers! when a river is full to capacity where do you expect the drain water to go it has no where to go so backs up and causes floods. yes cleaning ditches and alike can help somewhat but when you have as much rain as we have had in the last 24h it makes no difference rivers and streams are at breaking point. Nothing Dublin CC could have done last night..

Thats why you see alot of storm systems in spain and the states so when it rains like it did yesterday there's another sytem available to aid in the removal of water! There's only 3 main rivers in dublin combine yesturdays rain with a high tide and your in trouble.....

I feel for all the people who's house and all got flooded but blamin DCC and the met office is silly. This happened not so long ago and lesson should have been learned had your house flooded back then chance's are it will flood again!!!

I agree that this criticism of your tax-supported forecast is unfounded, as part of my own (thanks-supported) work I routinely check what I'm saying against what they're saying so it was my impression all along that they were taking the guidance for heavy rainfall potential and forecasting it. The real story (FWIW) is how well the numerical models handled this rather complex low, in both phases, with the heavy rainfall on Sunday and then the secondary which became such a prolific rain-maker on Monday. There were three separate model depictions of rainfall for this available to the forecasters on Sunday and they all tended to nail the event as being over the Dublin region.

Like Mothman was saying, the way it played out was at peak intensity but this was not really outside the range that the guidance had suggested so the wording of forecasts was reasonable. I think what might have confused some members of the public (and not the emergency planning agencies who are charged with using the forecasts) is how forecasts are divided into "today" and "tonight" -- in my own case, I use the convention that today ends at 6 p.m. and tonight runs from 6 p.m. to the next morning. So some of the predicted rainfall amounts for a storm that lasted essentially from noon to about 9 p.m., fall into the "tonight" part of the forecast. But that wasn't a factor in the "total storm rainfall" forecasts that were available to the public in any case. Also FWIW, during the period before this rainfall event, I wasn't aware of any substantial difference in the two forecasts and I received no messages or questions on that subject (often I get a lot of messages when there has been a difference in the past).

The main point is that the numerical guidance was excellent for us and this despite a rather innocent look to the system without that guidance being available. Also the storm was hammering away in northern Portugal and northwest Spain on Sunday making its intentions fairly clear.

Anyway, just thought some might be interested in this perspective. If there were management problems with the flooding (as opposed to act of God sort of thing), the forecast in this case would not be the place to look, from what I've heard here a larger issue seems to be some planning considerations and possibly the definitions of design rate (return period) rainfall to be handled in certain cases.

These alternative forecasts that I provide here and on IWO have really exploited a different kind of "alternative" paradigm than "different forecast" -- it is more a case of different system of delivery, all done by internet based technology rather than conventional media. The main "difference" then is that a different set of users can access the latest forecast in their own preferred way. They might indeed wish they could be at home watching the forecast but instead they're mobile and not near a TV (I know you kids all have TV on your smart phones blah blah, you have to keep in mind I am about six hundred years old :eek:). The content in most cases is not that different. I can remember a few times when we've had different forecasts out during heavy snowfalls, but would say otherwise 99% of the time the content is only different in wording or emphasis once reviewed. I don't make any effort to copy what they're saying but the numerical guidance often leaves you with a fairly narrow range of possibilities and in the UK where there are more players, you still often see a cluster of very similar forecasts made independently. The way things go nowadays, the big question mark is usually what's going to happen 3-5 days out, the models tend to nail down details quite a few "runs" in advance.