Winter 2011/2012

JONJO THE MISER · 19-10-2011 7:55pm

Fierce cold out there at the moment, i have a feeling this is only the start of it.

Villain · 19-10-2011 7:57pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Fierce cold out there at the moment, i have a feeling this is only the start of it.

Nah fairly rapid rise in temps from Thursday night and current charts show rest of October at usual temps.

Fiskar · 19-10-2011 8:06pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Fierce cold out there at the moment, i have a feeling this is only the start of it.

"Feelings" are for the other thread, this thread is supposed to be for factual information and forecasts.

Forum Monkey · 19-10-2011 9:16pm

I Prefer the idea with record breaking snowfalls in Ireland

NIALL D · 19-10-2011 9:37pm

Forum Monkey wrote: »

I Prefer the idea with record breaking snowfalls in Ireland

i second this

Forum Monkey · 19-10-2011 9:40pm

A mild winter on the cards?
This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.
As in my last update on the 2nd September 2011.
I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.
THIS STILL STANDS!
This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.
November 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
December 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
January 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.
February 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19th October 2011 (14:45) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Musicman2000 · 19-10-2011 9:53pm

Forum Monkey wrote: »

A mild winter on the cards?
This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.
As in my last update on the 2nd September 2011.
I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.
THIS STILL STANDS!
This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.
November 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
December 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
January 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.
February 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19th October 2011 (14:45) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

Think this was posted earlier, but by the looks of things James Madden could be out on his own with his forecast, but its early days yet, we will have to wait and see

opinion guy · 19-10-2011 10:07pm

NIALL D wrote: »

i second this

Motion passed!!

dsmythy · 19-10-2011 10:49pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Donegal post man has finally gave his predictions...

He's a good reader I'll give him that

Coles · 19-10-2011 10:53pm

Saying that 'records will be broken' isn't really good enough. Anything could be defined as a record.

How about 'Heaviest snowfall in Co. Cavan on a Tuesday afternoon in December EVER!'?

isle of man · 19-10-2011 11:10pm

Coles wrote: »

Saying that 'records will be broken' isn't really good enough. Anything could be defined as a record.

How about 'Heaviest snowfall in Co. Cavan on a Tuesday afternoon in December EVER!'?

Give me £20 on that day, and can i have a £5 each way for the day before or after it:p

Calibos · 19-10-2011 11:34pm

isle of man wrote: »

You've got some neck showin' your face around these parts again after last year, ye snow thievin' b'stard. Theres a Bray man here and a few Meath and Louth lads that would love to have a 'friendly'.....'chat' with ye.

M.T. Cranium · 20-10-2011 7:53pm

Loads of information on the developing winter scenario for North America and in fact much of the northern hemisphere on this forum:

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

Would recommend reading all posts made since August rather than the first one or two which have more to do with an annual snowfall forecast contest that they run.

Consensus seems to be a confluent flow near 80-60W that should place one longwave ridge around 70W this winter. For the Irish winter forecast, if that were correct, it would all depend on the wavelength downstream, a long wave pattern would tend to imply a stormy mild winter, a short wave length could accommodate a more blocked winter. The next ridge upstream would appear to be favoured around 120-140W. I'll see if I can give that one a shove downstream to buckle the flow.

bb1234567 · 20-10-2011 8:12pm

a forecaster called brian gaze who previously forecast a mild winter seems to have changed his mind and thinkswidespread heavy snow in 3rd or 4th week of november is possible, though he hasnt said whether hes changing his winter forecast to cold yet:) article:

Cold blast in November possible
Posted Thu, 20 Oct 2011 18:16:07

Our autumn forecast (linked below) suggested that November would be a colder than average month, with the risk of snow extending down from the north. That was issued at the end of August, but as we are now approaching the time, what are the prospects? Well I've got some good news for those of you who like snow. In recent days I've seen some of the signals I look for in the medium range computer model output which point to a cold outbreak several weeks down the line. It's very tentative at this stage of course, and I'll be keeping a close eye on how this develops during the next couple of weeks. Before going out to grease your sledge runners remember that at the moment this is only a 'possibly', and despite last years incredible freeze, November snow in lowland Britain is quite rare. If I had to go for a punt on when the cold may arrive I'd go for the second or third week of November

If Brian is signalling that he thinks a cold blast is possible in November, then what could he signal for winter? I have a feeling his initial mild thoughts for winter may change to cold as thhe models firm up on the detail. It's all looking good for us snow lovers. After a worry on Sunday from Brian Glaze, we could be turning a corner snd gaining a big advantage now. James Madden could yet be correct..

Musicman2000 · 20-10-2011 8:14pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Loads of information on the developing winter scenario for North America and in fact much of the northern hemisphere on this forum:

http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

Would recommend reading all posts made since August rather than the first one or two which have more to do with an annual snowfall forecast contest that they run.

Consensus seems to be a confluent flow near 80-60W that should place one longwave ridge around 70W this winter. For the Irish winter forecast, if that were correct, it would all depend on the wavelength downstream, a long wave pattern would tend to imply a stormy mild winter, a short wave length could accommodate a more blocked winter. The next ridge upstream would appear to be favoured around 120-140W. I'll see if I can give that one a shove downstream to buckle the flow.

So would you go with the short wave lenght?:D

Lucreto · 20-10-2011 8:24pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

a forecaster called brian gaze who previously forecast a mild winter seems to have changed his mind and thinkswidespread heavy snow in 3rd or 4th week of november is possible, though he hasnt said whether hes changing his winter forecast to cold yet:) article:

Cold blast in November possible
Posted Thu, 20 Oct 2011 18:16:07

Our autumn forecast (linked below) suggested that November would be a colder than average month, with the risk of snow extending down from the north. That was issued at the end of August, but as we are now approaching the time, what are the prospects? Well I've got some good news for those of you who like snow. In recent days I've seen some of the signals I look for in the medium range computer model output which point to a cold outbreak several weeks down the line. It's very tentative at this stage of course, and I'll be keeping a close eye on how this develops during the next couple of weeks. Before going out to grease your sledge runners remember that at the moment this is only a 'possibly', and despite last years incredible freeze, November snow in lowland Britain is quite rare. If I had to go for a punt on when the cold may arrive I'd go for the second or third week of November

If Brian is signalling that he thinks a cold blast is possible in November, then what could he signal for winter? I have a feeling his initial mild thoughts for winter may change to cold as thhe models firm up on the detail. It's all looking good for us snow lovers. After a worry on Sunday from Brian Glaze, we could be turning a corner snd gaining a big advantage now. James Madden could yet be correct..

Oh Dear Doylem will not be happy.:D

Brian needed time to analyse the new data, he must of thought it didn't have much impact on the current patterns

bb1234567 · 20-10-2011 8:39pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Oh Dear Doylem will not be happy.:D

Brian needed time to analyse the new data, he must of thought it didn't have much impact on the current patterns

ye haha have you checked daily mail lately? doylem has nothing:D he wont be showing up anytime soon:p, all his evidence or forecasters have either changed and arent going for mild anymore or found out to be a lie or changed quotes or just completely made up , or evidence or forecast proven to be wrong or faulty, no more doylem negativity on daily mail anymore

Lucreto · 20-10-2011 9:00pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

ye haha have you checked daily mail lately? doylem has nothing:D he wont be showing up anytime soon:p, all his evidence or forecasters have either changed and arent going for mild anymore or found out to be a lie or changed quotes or just completely made up , or evidence or forecast proven to be wrong or faulty, no more doylem negativity on daily mail anymore

He will be back tomorrow twisting it to his advantage as he always does.

I expect he will twist this as a sign of a mild winter

"Before going out to grease your sledge runners remember that at the moment this is only a 'possibly', and despite last years incredible freeze, November snow in lowland Britain is quite rare."

Even this guy doesn't believe Doylem
http://i.imgur.com/vFmPP.jpg

thetonynator · 20-10-2011 11:19pm

I don't know this doylem chap but it sounds like he just might be trolling trying to get a response from ye!

bb1234567 · 20-10-2011 11:30pm

thetonynator wrote: »

I don't know this doylem chap but it sounds like he just might be trolling trying to get a response from ye!

yes he might well be a troll he is so annoying, hes on a forum called daily mail winter 2011/12 just google it and itll come up, its a heated debate

all you boardsies should join or follow it its good fun!

davidsr20 · 21-10-2011 10:36am

No winter this year lads lock it up

everyone is steering towards wind and rain this year.

Villain · 21-10-2011 11:52am

davidsr20 wrote: »

No winter this year lads lock it up everyone is steering towards wind and rain this year.

LOL beyond 2 weeks everyone is guessing

phone2000 · 21-10-2011 2:26pm

The accuweather.com Winter forecast is up.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/56651/winter-forecast-20112012.asp

Musicman2000 · 21-10-2011 2:34pm

phone2000 wrote: »

The accuweather.com Winter forecast is up.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/56651/winter-forecast-20112012.asp

That dosent look good at all for snow and cold, winter could be over before its even started:mad:

Lucreto · 21-10-2011 3:01pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

That dosent look good at all for snow and cold, winter could be over before its even started:mad:

Winter 2010/2011

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40716/accuweathercom-europe-winter-f-1.asp

Musicman2000 · 21-10-2011 3:07pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Winter 2010/2011

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40716/accuweathercom-europe-winter-f-1.asp

They were just talking about that over on netweather about last years forecast wasnt to accurate, I just hope they are wrong again

nacho libre · 21-10-2011 5:05pm

With James Madden seemingly being out on his own about conditions being similar to last year, I'm more or less resigned to this winter being back to normal
If the Landscheidt study is correct we maybe back to our weather being dominated by blocking highs post 2014

bb1234567 · 21-10-2011 6:34pm

nacho libre wrote: »

With James Madden seemingly being out on his own about conditions being similar to last year, I'm more or less resigned to this winter being back to normal
If the Landscheidt study is correct we maybe back to our weather being dominated by blocking highs post 2014

whats lancheit studies? and i thought blocking highs gave very cold weather and easterly winds ?