Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thanks, I find this a very friendly "home base" among four places that I frequent in the weather-internet universe, and you can't beat the Irish weather community for wit, enthusiasm, and (finally) snow !!! :eek:

Well maybe some place near Lake Huron has the upper hand on snow, but they won't have the wit to describe it properly, beyond saying "guess it snowed eh?"

But anyway, remember the law of averages is bound to catch up to old MTC on the long-range in particular, I don't claim those hyper-inflated percentages of accuracy that you sometimes hear in this game. Actually, I don't claim anything, I am just riding the wave and hoping to make it to shore. :cool:

The conventional weather models may pick up on trends 10-15 days in advance but details are often very hazy on them because the energy cycle of storms is really confined to 5-10 day periods. This is why as long as the general scenario remains cold in that time period, I have no reason to change my outlook until we get into reliable time frames like 4-6 days, then I can start to fine-tune or even abandon a specific forecast like the winter storm potential for 20-21 Dec.

It remains the case that there's an energy peak available there, cold air in abundance, and the details will sort themselves out as we get closer to the time. The only time that energy peaks fail to deliver some kind of event are those rare occasions when blocking high pressure is right over the region and then the jet stream has to split to get around the block. In this case, the block is shown retreating west rather rapidly to around 30-40 W and the arctic portion of the jet stream will be dropping south (to the west of Ireland) and meeting up with the subtropical portion that takes the southern way around the block. My research model strongly suggests that in a setup like this, with a strong energy peak, you can expect low pressure somewhere just to the south or southwest of Ireland, and possibly a larger area of unsettled (which would have to be snowy) weather over the U.K. and Ireland from upper level low pressure.

Anyway, I don't claim to be psychic, any of these forecasts are based on probability from research, and so I'm basically saying the odds favour a snowy pattern developing around that time. Do you really want more snow? Might be better to recycle what's already there. :cool:

Thursday, 9 December, 2010
______________________________

TODAY ... The gradual thaw sets in ... but will be very slow to impact the deeper snow in central to southeast counties, and inland Ulster ... expect fog to blanket the snow fields in many places with highs of 3-5 C (possibly even lower in valleys) ... further west, a good chance of mild sunshine breaking through low clouds, with highs 8-10 C ... places like Dublin and coastal Wexford could be somewhere in between these extremes with partly cloudy skies and mist, highs of 6-8 C, but around higher parts of Dublin fog could remain fairly thick. Now these boundaries won't be too distinct, if you have snow off to your east a few miles, the fog from there could drift over your way although any organized wind is likely to be more NW'ly near coasts.

TONIGHT ... Trading cold air mass for higher pressure, the overnight lows over the snowy areas could still drop down quite low, to -6 C or lower, but many places will have dense freezing fog and lows near -2 C. A few western coastal areas may stay above freezing in partly cloudy skies. There could also be some patchy drizzle on the Donegal and Mayo coasts.

FRIDAY ... Much the same as today, hazy and mild around the west and south coasts, highs 8-11 C ... foggy inland over snow, some thawing as highs reach 3-5 C there, and partly cloudy, 6-8 C east coast. The wind will slacken near the northwest coasts as high pressure comes almost directly overhead.

SATURDAY ... The overnight conditions about the same as tonight, then another hazy, mild day, possibly with the fog somewhat less extensive as some of the peripheral snow will have melted away ... but some dense fog nevertheless ... highs in a similar range, 8-12 C coastal, 3-6 C central.

SUNDAY ... Now a slight change begins again, with cooler air returning from the southeast, perhaps leading to extensive low cloud and trapping the fog ... expect fairly cold overnight lows of -2 to -7 C followed by chilly highs in the 4-7 C range mostly.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Cold with some sunshine, risk of flurries in the southeast, winds E-SE 15-30 mph adding some chill, very cold nights ... lows around -7 to -10 C inland, -3 to -5 C coastal, and highs of about 2-4 C on average but possibly near -1 C over remaining snow.

OUTLOOK ... Models suggest a bit of milder air returning as the high collapses and a northerly flow sets in ahead of much colder air in the far north. So, it may reach 7-8 C again mid-week before plunging back to near freezing late in the week. This would begin to set up the winter wonderland scenario that some hope to see and others would prefer not to see (again).

Drive with extreme caution in foggy areas as there may be a lot of black ice and very reduced visibility.

Today (Wed 8th) here was cloudy with rain returning this afternoon, not too heavy, and quite mild at about 10 C. I mentioned in another thread that London (Ontario) got hammered by snow squalls off Lake Huron in the past two days and reports of 75-150 cms of snow have been verified. There was some wind with this but it seems to have fallen in a level blanket about as high as the average vehicle, so road travel has been greatly reduced in that region. Toronto, meanwhile, only got about 3 cms.

Friday, 10 December, 2010
____________________________

TODAY ... Cloudy and mild with drizzle, mist and some fog, thicker over any snow well inland. Some sunny breaks possible in the southwest and south. Light winds. Highs reaching 7-11 C except closer to 4-6 C over inland snow where fog may remain rather persistent.

TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy and rather mild, except where any clear patches develop over the snow, then fog may become freezing fog with lows near -2 C, but for most other districts, lows 3-6 C. Calm winds.

SATURDAY ... Hazy and mild, fog tending to disperse slowly inland, slow thaw continuing for the deeper snow ... highs 8-12 C in general, possibly as low as about 5-7 C over snow.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, drizzle near south and east facing coasts, some fog inland, winds picking up to SE 10-20 mph, cooler feeling with highs about 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather cold again, with milder air moving off the west coast in a SE flow, highs 4-7 C generally but 7-10 C west.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, flurries may develop in east, as winds start to come in from an easterly direction, highs near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Staying moderately mild but winds increasing from the north to 20-30 mph, passing showers turning to flurries over higher ground, highs near 6 C.

LATE THURSDAY or FRIDAY, another cold spell is likely to develop on very gusty northerly winds, and rapidly falling temperatures, with snow returning to the picture ... we'll wait until closer to the time to speculate about how much, where and when, but at first it's likely to be the northern half of the country seeing more conducive conditions, then later all over the country in play for snow as a stormy period may develop (this about 19-22 Dec).

Temperatures during this cold spell may well be about as cold as what we've just seen, as the air coming out of the arctic will have quite a cold start, but we will have to bear in mind a fairly long sea passage at least for a while, before possibly seeing more of a home-grown chill from air masses over Britain and Ireland with snow cover.

Meanwhile, here today (Thurs 9th) it was cloudy and mild with showers, but a cooler air mass is developing with gradual clearing here at present. A snowstorm is developing in stages for the Great Lakes region -- this will be fairly widespread over the weekend, not just local snow squalls as they had in a few parts earlier this week. The east coast will get slightly milder with this shift in storm track.

Please note, arrangements are underway to lock this thread but comments and questions can be placed in a parallel "comments" thread that will open. For the time being, please direct comments, observations etc to the appropriate threads as readers of the forecasts are having trouble finding them in all the other posts. Thanks very much -- MTC

Saturday, 11 December, 2010
_____________________________

TODAY ... The thaw continues ... mild and hazy with some brief sunny intervals possible for west and south coast, but most places under a rather low overcast with fog somewhat thicker over some central counties, especially hilly areas ... snow should continue to melt slowly where deepest, as highs reach 6-8 C over snow and 9-12 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with extensive mist or fog, but somewhat colder again after midnight, lows -2 to +4 C, some patchy freezing fog and ice on outlying roads.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, not quite as mild, winds SE 10-20 mph, some patchy drizzle in south and east, highs 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, but some low cloud near south and east coasts, cooler ... lows -4 to -1 C and highs 4-7 C. Winds E-SE 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, some flurries or wintry showers developing near southeast coast, winds E-NE 15-25 mph. Lows near -5 C and highs in the range of 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy, passing mixed wintry showers in a moderate to strong NE to N wind, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C (possibly a bit milder in west but feeling quite cold in the strong winds).

Then winter bites back, as they say ...

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with scattered snow flurries or heavier squalls, in strong northerly winds, temperatures steady near -1 C on average (some inland counties colder).

WEEKEND 18th-19th ... Likely to be very cold with further snow, possibly significant amounts, temperatures in the range of -6 to -1 C for most.

OUTLOOK ... This cold spell will probably dig in and stay for a while, whatever the models may show at this early stage ... which makes a white Christmas rather likely. There may indeed be a long spell of severe wintry weather.

WEATHER FOR MY LOCATION ... Cloudy and mild with highs of about 8 C, mostly dry, just spits of rain this evening (Friday 10th that is). Great Lakes and Midwest U.S. gearing up for mixed precip turning to heavy snow over the weekend and into Monday. Turning milder on the east coast where it has been chilly, highs may reach 10-15 C by Sunday there.

I may be away from the forum all day Saturday due to a combination of computer troubles and plans for the day ... hoping to update this forecast at the usual time Sunday morning.

Monday, 13 December, 2010
______________________________

TODAY ... Widespread low cloud and fog with some sunny intervals around mid-day ... rather chilly inland and in north, still rather mild near south coast and in parts of the west, but with light winds in all areas ... highs near 4 C inland and north, to 8 C south and west coasts, about 7 C in Dublin. A few light showers near the Kerry coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold inland, fog and frost forming, some icy roads ... lows -5 to -2 C on average, some coastal locations +2 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with some lingering fog or low cloud, cool ... highs generally about 4-6 C, could stay colder in a few central locations, light winds for most with a slight easterly component. A passing flurry is possible in the southeast, nothing very substantial.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, winds becoming NE 10-20 mph, some coastal fog or drizzle near east coast, lows in -5 to -2 C range, highs 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning much colder, quite early in the day in the north, mid-day in the south. Any showers in the morning (mostly south) would change rapidly to flurries or snow squalls. Heavy snow at times in parts of Ulster and Connacht, with mixed wintry showers near west coast, as winds rise to NNW 30-50 mph. Temperatures may be slightly above freezing for the morning, then will fall to about -2 or -3 C in many areas by afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Very cold, strong winds diminishing slowly from NNW 40 mph to about 20 mph, snow streamers likely in many parts of the north, some wintry sunshine further south and temperatures in the range of -5 to -1 C from morning to afternoon. Snow accumulations of 3-7 cms likely (from Thursday on) in parts of Ulster and inland Connacht.

WEEKEND ... Very cold, local snow streamers possible almost anywhere within 25-50 kms of the coasts, as winds respond to various weak pressure systems embedded in a large upper level disturbance. Showers may become mixed at times near coasts but snow accumulations are possible almost anywhere, especially a short distance inland and on higher ground. Also some sunshine in the mix, and overnight lows of -10 C to -5 C while daytime highs remain in the range of -3 to +2 C. Severe frost, local freezing fog, icy roads in some areas. Conditions appear likely to be locally severe but quite variable place to place. We will of course be refining all this as we get closer, but basically it looks like a case of many local scale weather events in a generally cold pattern.

OUTLOOK ... I am growing more confident that this cold will dig in and stay, with any effort to return mild air likely to lead to snowfalls that could even be heavy at times and may not avoid the south as the storm track seems likely to be south of Ireland into northern France by early next week. A snowstorm is quite possible at any time from about Sunday 19th to Wednesday 22nd. No guarantee is possible at this stage. Longer range model output is now leaning more towards continued cold, only very weak warming if any at all, and even the prospect of a renewed push of bitterly cold air from either the far north or Scandinavia and before that Siberia, later in the month (between Christmas and New Years).

Much, much more will be available in the discussion threads, including some expanded commentary from me. I can't stress enough the uncertainty but also the potential for severe disruption in this pattern, which is really quite remarkable to behold on the charts in terms of how much of the North Atlantic is soon to be covered in cold, arctic air with a generally northeast flow pattern over much of the ocean and surrounding land masses.

Meanwhile, it has to be mild somewhere, and that somewhere is right here. We had a high of 12 C, fog, a few breaks to reveal the sun, and earlier quite a bit of rain. It has now become very foggy but it's still 8 degrees at 10 p.m. here. A winter storm is pushing through the Great Lakes region, and it has turned briefly mild in the northeast U.S. -- that won't last very long as arctic air moves back in, and the mild air heads up towards northern Quebec and Baffin Island. This is all related to the development of the Greenland high.

More when I can make it up. :cool:

Tuesday, 14 December, 2010
_______________________________

TODAY ... Cloudy with some lingering fog, possibly a few sunny breaks later, and temperatures about the same as yesterday for most regions, highs in the range of 5 to 8 C. Light winds with a slight easterly component.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing but still quite cloudy on average, cold, lows in the range of -2 to +2 C, extensive mist and some fog, icy roads.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a bit milder as the air mixes more in a northwest breeze backing to west later, some drizzle possible in the north towards late afternoon. Highs reaching 7-10 C west, 4-7 C east and southeast. Winds increasing somewhat to 20-25 mph at times by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain in a moderate westerly wind, some wet snow on higher terrain, lows generally 2-3 C, could stay near 5 C in coastal Connacht and north Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy during the morning, mild in the south until mid-day (highs 7-10 C), turning much colder in the north about sunrise to mid-morning, sleet turning to snow or hail, some accumulations in Ulster and inland Connacht. Rain showers on the west coast turning to hail. Very strong NW winds developing, 40-60 mph. The east and south will see the early mildness come to a sudden end with squally showers turning to sleet, hail and then snow, before some clearing sets in. Temperatures will remain steady near 2 C for a while, then drop to -2 C late in the day. Wind chills near -10 C at that point, with squally snow showers possible but more likely in Ulster and Connacht with 3-7 cms accumulating in places by midnight.

FRIDAY ... Overnight squalls of hail and snow in gusty winds, some further accumulations, then some cold wintry sunshine in the south and east while the squally weather continues in the north and west. The strongest winds will be in the early morning hours but it will stay windy most of the day near the north and west coasts, winds becoming more moderate (W-NW) in the east and south. Very cold in most places, highs struggling to reach even the freezing point and possibly -2 C inland over snow.

FRIDAY NIGHT to SUNDAY NIGHT ... Overnight temperatures on the weekend could drop very low if any clearing persists, with potential for readings of about -12 C in some inland northern and central locations. Probably closer to -4 C on average around coastal regions, as winds rapidly drop off then become somewhat easterly on average. Days will feature some outbreaks of snow, and some sunny intervals, with very cold conditions. At any point there could be some moderate or even heavy snow in streamers coming inland from the south or east, but snow is possible near the other coasts as well, as winds rotate around low pressure that may be right over Ireland at times. Much more specific snowfall forecasts can be made closer to the time, but for now, would say expect an average of 5 cms and potential for 10-20, with some sleet and coastal rain in the mix due to somewhat marginal temperatures (highs will generally be -2 to +1 C, could be lower in a few spots, and higher in a few coastal locations, so you can see there is some risk of mixing to rain and in the usual places, you know your own location's tendencies). We'll have to keep a very close eye on developments with the potential for snowstorm or even local blizzard conditions given these patterns of slow-moving low pressure nearby.

OUTLOOK ... Not much change, as cold air remains in the general vicinity, and further outbreaks of snow quite possible, with temperatures staying near or below freezing with potential for very cold nights wherever it clears. Any organized milder trend may have to wait quite a while whatever the models may depict today, we can't totally trust these warming indications given the past history. And the large-scale pattern favours renewed cold outbreaks at frequent intervals even if one or two days do turn a bit milder.

Here, we have continued to see mild weather on Monday (13th) with a high of about 11 C, and only a few spits of rain this evening. It has become very cold and windy across most of the east except in Atlantic Canada where it was mild and rainy.

More updates may follow, and please check in with the discussion threads for all the latest opinions of the weather forum crew.