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New -- Boards WINTER forecast contest

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    #62
    hellboy99
    Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    All forecasts received and here's the table:

    winterboardsc2010.jpg

    Good luck to all the entrants :)


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    #63
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,111 ✭✭✭John mac


    What about Con Sensus ??

    did She forget to enter? :D:D


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    #64
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 340 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Who gave me 67 cm of snow?

    And the rest of my figures bear no relationship to what I entered.

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #65
    Winger_PL
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    Lads, the table seems to be a bit off? The data I've entered is actually posted above my line and details in my line are not mine at all?


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    #66
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Thanks hellboy! Just a small thing on the table there, Iancar29's forecast seems to have been put at the end and all other forecasts pushed back up so that they still fit in the table (if that makes sense :p) resulting in all forecasts below iancar29's to be off by one row.


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    #67
    hellboy99
    Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    God dam Excel :o fixing it now, thanks guys.

    Table now fixed. (Sorry guys, it's my first time :p:))


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    #68
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thanks very much for the table, I will post some consensus values below (these are done the same way as in the monthly forecasts, the median value rather than an average -- as we have 35 entries, this will be the 18th highest entry in each case, 17 will fall above it, 17 below it).

    DEC ... 4.9 C
    JAN ... 4.0 C
    FEB ... 4.4 C

    DEC ... 90%
    JAN ... 100%
    FEB ... 110%

    max ... 14.6 C
    min ... -11.0 C

    wind max ... 75 kts

    snowfall ... 25 cm

    the mean snowfall would be higher since some guesses are a lot higher than the median and few are below 10 cms ... the mean is probably 30 cms or so.

    otherwise, the forecasts seem randomly distributed around their median values, so the mean of forecasts would probably be about the same as these median values.

    thanks again to Hellboy99 for his help, and please thank his posting of the table if you've checked your numbers and verified them. == MTC.


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    #69
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    M.T. I pm'ed you a while ago changing my gust prediction, hasn't shown up on the table though, could it be changed if at all possible?? 40 knots was a bit pessimistic, i think my altered one was 70knots . . . .


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    #70
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes, I can confirm that, you're in for 70 kts.


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    #71
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,967 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Ragin' i missed out on this! Goodluck everyone looks like fun.


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    #72
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    MTC - sent you a PM regarding the snow measurement, hopefully we're good to go, and perhaps a first recording inside 33 hrs. :D


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    #73
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    First report... 0.5cm


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    #74
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 373 ✭✭waterways


    When? Time please?


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    #75
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    At 9am it was 0.5cm. The white-board is then wiped clean and measured again tomorrow morning at 9am. We had alot more snow since 9am, pity it came a little late to be included in this mornings measure. If it doesn't melt it will be in tomorrow mornings measure. :)


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    #76
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    0.5cm (0.5cm) November 27th 2010
    0.8cm (1.3cm) November 28th 2010

    Running Season Total in Brackets.
    Rain Gauge had 1.5mm this morning meaning ~0.2cm of melt yesterday. Incredible!


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    #77
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Actually guys, new snow depths ARE reported here by the Met Eireann stations too - every hour!! They are described in the "931XX" group of the 333 line of the hourly SYNOP reports. Both Dublin Airport and Casement reported hourly snowfall levels during Saturday morning.

    I suppose it's too late to go back on the Casement winter forecast, but as a matter of interest I'm going to keep a record of the hourly new snowfall reports at Casement and will report back on March 1st!!

    eg. Casement's 8am report from Saturday morning, showing 2mms of newly fallen snow in the previous hour.
    [SIZE=-1]AAXX 27081[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]03967 41260 73504 10005 20005 39974 40092 53013 79398 879//
    333 42001 84704 86920 93192=

    [/SIZE]
    [SIZE=-1]
    Out of a total of 6 of these reports a total of 23mms of snowdepth fell during Saturday.[/SIZE]


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    #78
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    As far as I recall, only one contestant changed their prediction based on our late change to Durrow. Some of the last few entrants who knew about the change might also have had different ideas for Casement. As it's only 10% of the total and I suspect somehow that the totals will become pretty massive it probably won't make much difference to the scoring which site we use. So far they seem about the same. Danno, any day that it's convenient for you, your contest report can be a two or more times total measurement, I'm not asking you to do extra work but if you know there was more lying snow in total from different times of day, it would not be false information to give us those totals while still giving the 0900 report to ME as always. Just sayin ...

    And SC, if you do go to all that trouble for us, thanks in advance. We could even do a double scoring and report the scores both ways with the one guy's two different predictions both in play for him.

    Now if the 160 cms prediction comes off, all this will be academic as I'm sure both Danno and Casement will be reporting well over the second highest guess in the table, and I think the scoring was to be rank order anyway.

    Just a reminder, the December forecast contest thread is open and needs your attention as this winter forecast is separate from the monthly series.


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    #79
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Absolutely MTC, we'll soldier on as we have started and I will back up snow measurement data with rainfall data where appropiate.


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    #80
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    No snow to report this morning. Anticipating a decent read tomorrow morning though!


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    #81
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    0.5cm (1.8cm) November 30th 2010

    Snowing at 9am during time of read, quite heavily. By the time 9.20am had come there was an inch, but I hear it has started thawing once more at home :( . (In work now).


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    #82
    Not
    Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    At 22:30 - 23:00 Tuesday :

    M50 southbound to from toll bridge to Tallaght grand but maybe some black ice in the lane near the reservation.

    Clonee to Lucan road : lethal, untreated (usually is treated), will slide off bends at 10mph in places near Clonee end - avoid. Lucan end not so bad.

    old N3 thro Dunshaughlin to Fairyhouse roundabout white with frozen snow, but reasonable driveable at slow speed with extreme care at the time I drove it, but there's probably been more snow falling on it since.


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    #83
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Here are the daily snowfall totals for Casement in November. In some hourly reports they gave "<1mm", in which case I rounded it up to 1mm.

    27th: 2.3cm
    28th: 0.0cm
    29th: 3.3cm
    30th: 1.1cm
    Total: 6.7cm


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    #84
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    1.5cm (3.3cm) December 1st 2010


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    #85
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Amazing day in Tallaght today, and nearby Casement reported 5.5cms of fresh snow up to 15Z, some of it drifting. There's been more since then, but won't get reported until tonight.

    Depth of lying snow at 18Z is 10cms.


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    #86
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Quite a reasonable improvement here this evening with almost 1 hour of non-stop moderate-to-heavy snowfall. A guess of two inches (5cm) lying now. Official measurement, as always, ast 9am.


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    #87
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    A cover of 5" at midnight, still snowing! :D


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    #88
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Total new snowfall at Casement during Wednesday was 8.1cms, bringing running total to 14.8cms.

    14cms of lying snow at 06Z this morning.


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    #89
    homolumo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭homolumo


    At this point Redsunset's snowfall prediction is on track.....


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    #90
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That guess of his (160 cms) was audacious, my guess of 67 cms was semi-audacious. I just checked the table, there's a 55 cm guess from Rory and then nothing above mine until you get to Redsunset.

    Which means my safe zone is 61 cms to 113 cms. That's a pretty big safe zone. Let's see if we can explore it together. :D

    (it will actually relieve me greatly if both sites get past 60 cms because then the scoring will be the same using either location, except for any remaining tussle between me and Redsunset -- there are some places reporting 50 cms already! ... there must be a huge depth of snow up on some of the mountains south of Dublin).


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    #91
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    8.5cm (11.8cm) December 2nd 2010


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