New -- Boards WINTER forecast contest

Su Campu

Another 11.5cms fell at Casement Thursday, bringing the running total to 25.4cms, with 21cms of lying snow.

I took this measurement at nearby Tallaght at 15:30 (cms), which got more in the way of snow than Casement. A lot more fell after this measurement, so I reckon there's a foot there now.

M.T. Cranium

-12.9 last night at Oak Park.

Su Campu

-16.4°C at Mount Juliet, an official ME Climate Station (and bloody good golf course, MT!). New record for December, as was Casement's -12.0°C

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

-16.4°C at Mount Juliet, an official ME Climate Station (and bloody good golf course, MT!). New record for December, as was Casement's -12.0°C

If you have a spare couple of hundred lying around . . .:rolleyes:

Danno

0.5cm (12.3cm) December 4th 2010

Danno

3.7cm (16.0cm) December 7th 2010

Still falling at home... more tomorrow morning if no thaw sets in today.

Su Campu

Latest snowfall event at Casement.

Snow fell from 1900 Monday to 1100 today.

Monday: 1.0cm
Tuesday: 6.4cms, currently 13cms (was 16cms at 1100) of light fresh snow lying, with rime deposit.

Running seasonal total: 32.8cms

Hourly falls (starting 2100 Monday)
2100 0.1cm
2200 0.4
2300 0.5
0000 3.0
0100 0.5
0200 0.5
0300 0.5
0400 0.5
0500 0.2
0600 0.3
0700 <0.1
0800 0.5
0900 <0.1
1000 <0.1
1100 <0.1

H2UMrsRobinson

Su Campu wrote: »

Latest snowfall event at Casement.

Snow fell from 1900 Monday to 1100 today.

Monday: 1.0cm
Tuesday: 6.0cms, currently 13cms (was 16cms at 1100) of light fresh snow lying, with rime deposit.

Running seasonal total: 32.4cms

Hourly falls (starting 2100 Monday)
2100 0.1cm
2200 0.4
2300 0.5
0000 3.0
0100 0.5
0200 0.5
0300 0.5
0400 0.5
0500 0.2
0600 0.3
0700 <0.1
0800 0.5
0900 <0.1
1000 <0.1
1100 <0.1

So for me to win this element of the competition there can only be another 4cms of snow this Winter. Fup that for a game of soldiers - I'm all for redsunset being the nearest and still by an underestimate at that !!!

M.T. Cranium

We'll be using Danno's figures to score the contest, and those are so far running behind Casement. This was mentioned to all contestants earlier.

We'll supply two sets of scores just so people can see how they did against Casement snowfall data too. I won't go into the details but if both locations are greater than 62 cms, we only have slight differences in scoring that affect mostly Redsunset. I have a large "safe range" from 63 to 112 cms. But Redsunset has a larger safe range from 113 cms to continental glaciation. :cool:

Danno

2.0cm (18.0cm) December 8th 2010

Thats it for a wee while now I think... bar a rouge Irish Sea streamer gets going today!

Su Campu

Note that I've updated yesterday's snow total to 6.4cms, because I clearly can't add. :rolleyes:

That brings the seasonal total to 32.8cms

nacho libre

patneve2 wrote: »

optimistic winter snow accumulation predictions there!!

oh really patneve2:D

hellboy99

Updated table showing seasonal average mean temperature & precipitation



To the Mods: Would it be possible to make this thread a sticky showing the table above below MT's first post, thanks.

thetonynator

I find it weird that m.t. Has more snow forecast for some areas this weekend than i had for the whole winter, and i was being optimistic in my forecast. . :P

M.T. Cranium

How tall are you, Danno, because if we lose contact with you, that's the figure we will go with.

Redsunset

Danno better be taking a week off work cause i don't want a centimetre to be missed ha

thetonynator

redsunset wrote: »

Danno better be taking a week off work cause i don't want a centimetre to be missed ha

you don't seen quite so insane as your prediction suggests anymore. . :P we will be edging quite close to your prediction soon!

Redsunset

Well need that low to pop up again for any real chance now

M.T. Cranium

So far, the strongest wind gust in the qualifying period is 49 knots (yesterday). (edit -- 50 knots at 0500 Malin Head).

The highest temperature so far is 10.2 C.

I doubt that either of these will hold up for 75 more days.

Danno

A dusting... 0.2cm (18.2cm) December 17th 2010

Danno

redsunset wrote: »

Danno better be taking a week off work cause i don't want a centimetre to be missed ha

Poor Danno is enslaved in work until 5pm Christmas Eve, but one can rest assured that regular 9am measurements will proceed as normal.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

How tall are you, Danno, because if we lose contact with you, that's the figure we will go with.

At 5ft 11" Danno stands tall ready to wade through the drifts, ruler in hand.

M.T. Cranium

I saw a reading of -14 C at Ballyhaise last night, will get that confirmed with a more precise value later. As you know, we use only the Met-E reporting stations but I gather it was -17.2 or thereabouts at another location over in Mayo. I have the feeling we will see something a bit lower before this spell ends.

Su Campu

A good dumping of 16.3cms fell at Casement yesterday (Tuesday), with 0.5cms falling Monday.

Seasonal total to 1800 today is 49.7cms Currently 18cms of lying snow.

Hourly Falls on Tuesday (cms)
It was a busy afternoon!

HR / cms
1000/2.0
1100/1.0
1200/1.0
1600/3.0 :eek:
1700/3.0 :eek:
1800/3.0 :eek:
1900/2.0
2000/<0.1
2100/1.0
2200/<0.1
2300/<0.1

M.T. Cranium

I apologize to everyone who predicted more snow than me, for switching the snowfall from Casement to Durrow.

So, sorry Redsunset, those are the breaks man. :cool: I feel your pain.

Everyone else consider it your Christmas present.

Just some housekeeping here, the lowest qualifying temperature to date is at -14.4 from Ballyhaise and the highest is 10.2 from Malin Head (I think, we always have to wait for monthly summaries to check these).

December precip so far is about 35% of normal, and the IMT is -4 million or something lower than everyone said anyway ... but it's going to come up some, expect it to end close to zero or a fraction above possibly below, depends on which model has things right, but as of the instant (including today in my head) about -1.5 C. :eek::eek::eek:

This is probably one of the half dozen coldest months relative to normal ever seen in Ireland or the U.K. since the barons and mystical kings were in charge. Even the people living in the Little Ice Age would have found this a shocker.

M.T. Cranium

And it looks as though the "mercy rule" would be needed for December temperature scoring. To quote the rules, one-third of entrants (meaning 12 out of 35) will get points, ranging from 9 for closest guess, to 1 for those between 9th and 12th closest. Any ties will get similar points and we then skip the next number(s). As it would take a July heat wave to bring the IMT into scoring range now, you can figure out your points from the table back around page 5 or so.

When we apply the mercy rule, if any contestants would naturally score higher from their raw score, then the mercy rule only applies to other qualifying contestants. An example (not in this case), let's say two people were very close to the right temperature and got 10, 9 points, but nobody else qualified or fell short of the minimum progression. Then all those other points would be inflated to reach the minimum. May sound unfair, but in practice this never seems to happen anyway (over in the monthly contest, either we have to apply the mercy rule, or the scoring is regular, just once I can recall having to add a few "mercy rule" scores when maybe five people got raw scores out of two dozen). Raw scores are always inflated too when necessary to keep the order intact.

M.T. Cranium

In fact these are the scores likely to be awarded for December IMT, this would have to finish around 2.5 to bring a few stragglers into the lower range (and that would change the top scores slightly depending on the exact number, however, I can't foresee it finishing above 2, in which case this list would be "it").

Rebelbrowser ... 9
MTC (fixed) ..... 8
Redsunset ....... 7
Trogdor .......... 6
thetonynator ... 5
DOCARCH ........ 4
maquiladora ..... 3
Winger PL ........ 3 (tie)
Mmcd ............. 1
nacho libre ...... 1
forkassed ........ 1
nilhg ............... 1

4.6 C would be the lowest qualifying forecast.

---

Meanwhile, at the moment, if -14.4 C holds up all winter (which seems questionable given the big high sinking towards Ireland) the closest prediction comes from forkassed who said -14.0, a little closer than JoePublic at -13.9 and moi at -13.8 ... further falls would benefit Waterways who sits at -15.6 and cannot now score lower than 6/10, and the twin terrors, Winger PL (-18) and Redsunset (-19) who could still be "frozen out" of the points (although they have bragging rights from non-qualifying stations already). Whether or not any of these three are closest, the mercy rule will once again be wheeled out. At the moment, it is already necessary because only three would score many points, a few would be qualifying for a point or two, so we'll need it to get a full list of twelve. Above my prediction of -13.8, the next coldest was at -13.0 from Mmcd and -12.6 from Docarch. To my quick check, these are the only qualifying forecasts left on raw score alone. So the mercy rule should let in the other -12 and change.

Danno

Recorded snowfall will be updated here shortly, very busy at the moment. 9am obs still routine tho!

M.T. Cranium

If I lived in Ireland, you'd be getting a midnight visit from me and my truck load of snow. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Ballyhaise has lowered the mark to -14.8 C now. Mercy rule for sure, but no idea yet who will be in what position.

Danno

0.7cm (18.9cm) December 18th 2010
1.8cm (20.7cm) December 21st 2010
1.3cm (22.0cm) December 22nd 2010
0.8cm (22.8cm) December 23rd 2010
0.7cm (23.5cm) December 24th 2010

Apologies for the delay in getting this data online.