New -- Boards WINTER forecast contest

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Update on the contest. I contacted Met Eireann about the verification of snow depths at Casement. So far I haven't heard back. I will wait until 10 November and if I haven't resolved that issue, I will let all contestants know that we are switching the location. You may then adjust your prediction if you wish.

Hi MT, I know it's been a hectic few days, but is there any change of location for the snow forecast?

Thanks

M.T. Cranium

Did you notice I mentioned getting a virus a few days ago (in my computer, not my head)? One of the nasty things it did was to send most of my e-mail to trash without me getting to read it. Thus I may have missed met's reply to my request about Casement, as I missed about half a dozen other expected e-mails last week. The odd thing is, the virus quite likely jumped in from that storm thread (a post had a link that I thought was going to be storm pictures and turned out to be total spam).

Well, I have renewed my request for information on Casement's elusive snowfall (if any) and if we don't get resolution by the 18th, I will go with Danno's generous offer and give all contestants notice and adequate time to review their prediction for his somewhat different exposure (although I would have to think that the climatology numbers are about the same). In my case, I haven't posted an entry yet, but here goes (and my snowfall would remain the same for either).

DEC 2.5
JAN 2.4
FEB 2.6
mean 2.5

PRECIP - Dec 120%
Jan 110%
Feb 60%

mean 97%

Temp extremes 13.5 and -13.8

Extreme wind gust 79 kn

Snowfall 67 cms

Just posted my long-range forecast in the winter thread, that will give a rationale for my madness. I think the winter could be even colder than what's predicted here but this should do for now.

Winger_PL

Here goes:

1. DEC IMT will be 3.7
JAN IMT will be 2.9
FEB IMT will be 3.7

2. DEC precip will be 105%
JAN precip will be 95 %
FEB precip will be 110 %

3. Max temp for the three months 13.0c
Min temp for the three months -18.0c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 74 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar ----38

Su Campu

1. DEC IMT will be 5.2
JAN IMT will be 4.6
FEB IMT will be 4.5
(average 4.8)

2. DEC precip will be 110 %
JAN precip will be 85 %
FEB precip will be 90 %
(average 92.3 see above)

3. Max temp for the three months 13.8
Min temp for the three months -7.1

4. Highest wind gust in knots 65 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 25cms

SeaFields

1. DEC IMT will be 4.8
JAN IMT will be 4.1
FEB IMT will be 6.0
(average 5.0)

2. DEC precip will be 80 %
JAN precip will be 75 %
FEB precip will be 120%
(average -- 92%)

3. Max temp for the three months 16.5
Min temp for the three months -12.1

4. Highest wind gust in knots 60 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 10cm

OPTIONAL comments If I'm wrong, may we all be frozen from above somehow

H2UMrsRobinson

1. DEC IMT will be 6.7
JAN IMT will be 5.9
FEB IMT will be 5.8
(average 6.1-you - you can submit, but we will check your math, or we do it for you)

2. DEC precip will be __95_ %
JAN precip will be _110__ %
FEB precip will be _107__ %
(average -104- see above)

3. Max temp for the three months __14.1___
Min temp for the three months __-11.2___

4. Highest wind gust in knots __92__ kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar ___36cms______

OPTIONAL comments _This is my first attempt so i'm kinda plucking numbers out of my ear but though it'd be worth a go, good luck everyone____________________

Mmcd

1. DEC IMT will be 3.8
JAN IMT will be 3.7
FEB IMT will be 4.7
(average 4.07)

2. DEC precip will be 70 %
JAN precip will be 75 %
FEB precip will be 130%
(average -- 91.67%)

3. Max temp for the three months 14.5
Min temp for the three months -13.0

4. Highest wind gust in knots 75 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 24cm

OPTIONAL comments: I don't mind at all if I'm wrong.......as long as it turns out colder!

kindredspirit

1. DEC IMT will be 6.0°C
JAN IMT will be 4.5°C
FEB IMT will be 4.9°C
(average -- you can submit, but we will check your maths, 5.13°C)

2. DEC precip will be 110 %
JAN precip will be 98 %
FEB precip will be 115 %
(average -- about 8% wetter)

3. Max temp for the three months 15.5°C
Min temp for the three months -7.8°C
4. Highest wind gust in knots 80 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 20 cm.

OPTIONAL comments : Haven't a clue.............honestly.

John mac

DEC IMT will be 5.0
JAN IMT will be 4.7
FEB IMT will be 4.5
(average 4.73 you can submit, but we will check your math, or we do it for you)

2. DEC precip will be 110 %
JAN precip will be 100 %
FEB precip will be 90 %
(average 100 see above)

3. Max temp for the three months 14.2
Min temp for the three months -9.8

4. Highest wind gust in knots 76 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 24

Trogdor

1. DEC IMT will be 3.2C
JAN IMT will be 3.4C
FEB IMT will be 2.9C
(average 3.166,,,C)

2. DEC precip will be 90 %
JAN precip will be 100 %
FEB precip will be 70 %
(average 86.66,,,%)

3. Max temp for the three months: 13.4C
Min temp for the three months: -11.9C

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 88 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 38cm

Redsunset

1. DEC IMT 2.6
JAN IMT 1.7
FEB IMT 2.1

2. DEC precip will be 105 %
JAN precip will be 115%
FEB precip will be 110%

3. Max temp for the three months 11
Min temp for the three months -19

4. Highest wind gust in knots 76kt

5. Snowfall in cms 160


All out blizzards on the way this winter and record cold

DOCARCH

1. DEC IMT will be 3.6C
JAN IMT will be 2.8C
FEB IMT will be 3.4C
(average 3.266C)

2. DEC precip will be 89%
JAN precip will be 92%
FEB precip will be 85%
(average 88.66%)

3. Max temp for the three months: 14.1C
Min temp for the three months: -12.6C

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 88 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 42cm

octo

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar:

Follks, its not possible to get an accumulated snowfall over such a long period. Not in Ireland anyway, which often operates on the borderline between night-ice and day-melt for much of the winter.

Think about it. Met Eireann measures snow on the ground, which melts. 5 cm of snow today probably won't be 5cm tomorrow.

Best start coming up with an alternative measure........

John mac

octo wrote: »

Follks, its not possible to get an accumulated snowfall over such a long period. Not in Ireland anyway, which often operates on the borderline between night-ice and day-melt for much of the winter.

Think about it. Met Eireann measures snow on the ground, which melts. 5 cm of snow today probably won't be 5cm tomorrow.

Best start coming up with an alternative measure........

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68543992&postcount=3

Joe Public

1.
Dec IMT will be 4.9
Jan IMT will be 2.9
Feb IMT will be 3.5
( average 3.8 )

2.
Dec precip will be 130 %
Jan precip will be 60%
Feb precip will be 60 %
( average 83% )

3.
Max temp for the three months 13.9
Min temp for the three months -13.9

4. Highest wind gust in knots 73 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement, or maybe Durrow, for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar - 16cm (before it melts ) Depends on what time Danno get out of bed at.

M.T. Cranium

Well, it is true that my concept of snowfall is based on North American and not (evidently) European practice. Over here, what we do is to measure snowfall each day, actually at 3-hour intervals, keeping a record of snow depths that accumulate (temporarily in some cases) and then summing those up daily, monthly and seasonally. This is what is meant when somebody (routinely) quotes the annual average snowfall at say Chicago to be 35" or whatever it is. In all likelihood, that 35" implies that perhaps 10-15" might be on the ground at a maximum at any time in the winter, but everyone in weather circles knows that 35" means a total snowfall for the season and includes such variables as freeze-thaw, drifting, different moisture ratios etc.

So I mistakenly thought that European stations measured the same thing and apparently they do things differently, as confirmed by an e-mail I just got, and there is no such thing as a "seasonal snowfall total" but there could be one, of course, if somebody kept track of it. Now Danno told me earlier that he measures snowfall routinely when it happens (which being in southern Laois might not be quite as often as elsewhere?) ... so what I would say here is, look at your prediction, imagine what therefore might be the right answer for Durrow in Laois rather than Casement, and if you want to adjust your figure, then go ahead and do so.

You don't have to resubmit the whole forecast, just post a new snowfall total for the season. If you are prepared to stick with your original forecast, then would you take a moment to "thank" this post and that will tell us (me and Hellboy99) that you are staying with the original.

Now, the forecast contest closes at the end of play on the 18th (Thursday) but I will check the files and see who hasn't either signed off or changed, and send those people a note giving them to end of Sunday to change just the snowfall if they wish.

Sorry about the confusion. Perhaps if your climate shifts to something colder you too will know the thrills and joys of regular snowfall measurement. It's odd that the two different systems evolved, you would think the WMO would have standardized something like this years ago, but evidently not.

In reality, I think the snowfall estimates will probably stand or fall on the basis of about five to ten individual snowfall events that we could have estimated from snow depths reported from Casement, so I will try to keep a running estimate of what that might be just for comparison purposes. For example, in North American practice, let's say it's raining with snow mixing in and nothing sticks on the ground, then the snowfall might be reported as trace or even 0.1 cm or some small amount, but if the snow were to stick for a few hours and then melt, it would get into the records as the full amount that fell even though that might not be on the ground even at the end of that day. As I explained earlier, snowfall in these climates tends to stick around longer so that your daily end-of-day snowdepth reflects to a fairly consistent degree the new snow that has fallen that day, but with some settling. For example, if we had ten inches on the ground at some snowy location, and the day produced six new inches, the snow depth would very likely be something like 13-14 inches due to settling and compaction. So using snow depths especially in a more marginal climate would lead to problems in this measurement.

Su Campu

Here's the official WMO guide to Instruments and Methods of Observation. Snow depths is in Chapter 6, page 148.

6.7 Measurement of snowfall and snow cover

The authoritative texts on this topic are
WMO (1994) and WMO (1992a), which cover the
hydrological aspects, including the procedures,
for snow surveying on snow courses. The following
is a brief account of some simple and
well-known methods, and a brief review of the
instrumentation.

Snowfall is the depth of freshly fallen snow deposited
over a specified period (generally 24 h). Thus,
snowfall does not include the deposition of drifting
or blowing snow. For the purposes of depth
measurements, the term “snow” should also
include ice pellets, glaze, hail, and sheet ice
formed directly or indirectly from precipitation.
Snow depth usually means the total depth of
snow on the ground at the time of observation.
The water equivalent of a snow cover is the vertical
depth of the water that would be obtained by
melting the snow cover.

6.7.1 Snowfall depth
Direct measurements of the depth of fresh snow on
open ground are taken with a graduated ruler or
scale. A sufficient number of vertical measurements
should be made in places where drifting is considered
absent in order to provide a representative
average. Where the extensive drifting of snow has
occurred, a greater number of measurements are
needed to obtain a representative depth. Special
precautions should be taken so as not to measureany previously fallen snow. This can be done by
sweeping a suitable patch clear beforehand or by
covering the top of the old snow surface with a
piece of suitable material (such as wood with a
slightly rough surface, painted white) and measuring
the depth accumulated on it. On a sloping
surface (to be avoided, if possible) measurements
should still be taken with the measuring rod vertical.
If there is a layer of old snow, it would be
incorrect to calculate the depth of the new snow
from the difference between two consecutive measurements
of total depth of snow since lying snow
tends to become compressed and to suffer
ablation.

6.7.2 Direct measurements of snow
cover depth
Depth measurements of snow cover or snow accumulated
on the ground are taken with a snow
ruler or similar graduated rod which is pushed
down through the snow to the ground surface. It
may be difficult to obtain representative depth
measurements using this method in open areas
since the snow cover drifts and is redistributed
under the effects of the wind, and may have
embedded ice layers that limit penetration with a
ruler. Care should be taken to ensure that the
total depth is measured, including the depth of
any ice layers which may be present. A number of
measurements are taken and averaged at each
observing station.
A number of snow stakes, painted with rings of
alternate colours or another suitable scale,
provide a convenient means of measuring the
total depth of snow on the ground, especially in
remote regions. The depth of snow at the stake
or marker may be observed from distant ground
points or from aircraft by means of binoculars or
telescopes. The stakes should be painted white
to minimize the undue melting of the snow
immediately surrounding them. Aerial snow
depth markers are vertical poles (of variable
length, depending on the maximum snow depth)
with horizontal cross-arms mounted at fixed
heights on the poles and oriented according to
the point of observation.
The development of an inexpensive ultrasonic
ranging device to provide reliable snow depth measurements
at automatic stations has provided a
feasible alternative to the standard observation,
both for snow depth and fresh snowfall (Goodison
and others, 1988). This sensor can be utilized to
control the quality of automatic recording gauge
measurements by providing additional details on
the type, amount and timing of precipitation. It is
capable of an uncertainty of ±2.5 cm.

6.7.3 Direct measurements of snow
water equivalent
The standard method of measuring water equivalent
is by gravimetric measurement using a snow
tube to obtain a sample core. This method serves as
the basis for snow surveys, a common procedure in
many countries for obtaining a measure of water
equivalent. The method consists of either melting
each sample and measuring its liquid content or by
weighing the frozen sample. A measured quantity
of warm water or a heat source can be used to melt
the sample.
Cylindrical samples of fresh snow may be taken
with a suitable snow sampler and either weighed or
melted. Details of the available instruments and
sampling techniques are described in WMO (1994).
Often a standard raingauge overflow can be used
for this method.
Snowgauges measure snowfall water equivalent
directly. Essentially, any non-recording precipitation
gauges can also be used to measure the water
equivalent of solid precipitation. Snow collected
in these types of gauges should be either weighed
or melted immediately after each observation, as
described in section 6.3.1.2. The recording-weighing
gauge will catch solid forms of precipitation as
well as liquid forms, and record the water equivalent
in the same manner as liquid forms (see
section 6.5.1).
The water equivalent of solid precipitation can also
be estimated using the depth of fresh snowfall. This
measurement is converted to water equivalent by
using an appropriate specific density. Although the
relationship stating that 1 cm of fresh snow equals
the equivalent of 1 mm of water may be used with
caution for long-term average values, it may be
highly inaccurate for a single measurement, as the
specific density ratio of snow may vary between
0.03 and 0.4.
6.7.4 Snow pillows
Snow pillows of various dimensions and materials
are used to measure the weight of the snow that
accumulates on the pillow. The most common
pillows are flat circular containers (with a diameter
of 3.7 m) made of rubberized material and filled
with an antifreeze mixture of methyl alcohol and
water or a methanol-glycol-water solution. The
pillow is installed on the surface of the ground,flush with the ground, or buried under a thin layer
of soil or sand. In order to prevent damage to the
equipment and to preserve the snow cover in its
natural condition, it is recommended that the site
be fenced in. Under normal conditions, snow
pillows can be used for 10 years or more.
Hydrostatic pressure inside the pillow is a measure
of the weight of the snow on the pillow. Measuring
the hydrostatic pressure by means of a float-operated
liquid-level recorder or a pressure transducer
provides a method of continuous measurement of
the water equivalent of the snow cover. Variations
in the accuracy of the measurements may be
induced by temperature changes. In shallow snow
cover, diurnal temperature changes may cause
expansion or contraction of the fluid in the pillow,
thus giving spurious indications of snowfall or
snow melt. In deep mountain areas, diurnal temperature
fluctuations are unimportant, except at the
beginning and end of the snow season. The access
tube to the measurement unit should be installed
in a temperature-controlled shelter or in the ground
to reduce the temperature effects.
In situ and/or telemetry data-acquisition systems
can be installed to provide continuous measurements
of snow water equivalent through the use of
charts or digital recorders.
Snow pillow measurements differ from those taken
with standard snow tubes, especially during the
snow-melt period. They are most reliable when the
snow cover does not contain ice layers, which can
cause “bridging” above the pillows.
A comparison of the water equivalent of snow
determined by a snow pillow with measurements
taken by the standard method of weighing shows
that these may differ by 5 to 10 per cent.

6.7.5 Radioisotope snowgauges
Nuclear gauges measure the total water equivalent
of the snow cover and/or provide a density profile.
They are a non-destructive method of sampling and
are adaptable to in situ recording and/or telemetry
systems. Nearly all systems operate on the
principle that water, snow or ice attenuates radiation.
As with other methods of point measurement,
siting in a representative location is critical for
interpreting and applying point measurements as
areal indices.
The gauges used to measure total water content
consist of a radiation detector and a source, which
is either natural or artificial. One part (for example,
the detector/source) of the system is located
at the base of the snowpack, and the other at a
height greater than the maximum expected snow
depth. As snow accumulates, the count rate
decreases in proportion to the water equivalent
of the snowpack. Systems using an artificial source
of radiation are used at fixed locations to obtain
measurements only for that site. A system using
naturally occurring uranium as a ring source
around a single pole detector has been successfully
used to measure packs of up to 500 mm of
water equivalent, or a depth of 150 cm.
A profiling radioactive snowgauge at a fixed
location provides data on total snow water
equivalent and density and permits an accurate
study of the water movements and density
changes that occur with time in a snowpack
(Armstrong, 1976). A profiling gauge consists of
two parallel vertical access tubes, spaced
approximately 66 cm apart, which extend from a
cement base in the ground to a height above the
maximum expected depth of snow. A gamma ray
source is suspended in one tube, and a scintillation
gamma-ray detector, attached to a photomultiplier
tube, in the other. The source and detector are set
at equal depths within the snow cover and a
measurement is taken. Vertical density profiles of
the snow cover are obtained by taking
measurements at depth increments of about
2 cm. A portable gauge (Young, 1976) which
measures the density of the snow cover by
backscatter, rather than transmission of the
gamma rays, offers a practical alternative to
digging deep snow pits, while instrument
portability makes it possible to assess areal
variations of density and water equivalent.

6.7.6 Natural gamma radiation
The method of gamma radiation snow surveying is
based on the attenuation by snow of gamma radiation
emanating from natural radioactive elements
in the top layer of the soil. The greater the water
equivalent of the snow, the more the radiation is
attenuated. Terrestrial gamma surveys can consist
of a point measurement at a remote location, a
series of point measurements, or a selected traverse
over a region (Loijens, 1975). The method can
also be used on aircraft. The equipment includes
a portable gamma-ray spectrometer that utilizes a
small scintillation crystal to measure the rays in a
wide spectrum and in three spectral windows
(namely, potassium, uranium and thorium emissions).
With this method, measurements ofgamma levels are required at the point, or along
the traverse, prior to snow cover. In order to obtain
absolute estimates of the snow water equivalent, it
is necessary to correct the readings for soil moisture
changes in the upper 10 to 20 cm of soil for
variations in background radiation resulting from
cosmic rays, instrument drift and the washout of
radon gas (which is a source of gamma radiation)
in precipitation with subsequent build-up in the
soil or snow. Also, in order to determine the relationship
between spectrometer count rates and
water equivalent, supplementary snow water
equivalent measurements are initially required.
Snow tube measurements are the common reference
standard.
The natural gamma method can be used for
snowpacks which have up to 300 mm water
equivalent; with appropriate corrections, its
precision is ±20 mm. The advantage of this
method over the use of artificial radiation sources
is the absence of a radiation risk.

nilhg

1. DEC IMT will be 4.6C
JAN IMT will be 4.1C
FEB IMT will be 5.0C
average 4.8C

2. DEC precip will be _99__ %
JAN precip will be _81__ %
FEB precip will be __110_ %
(average -- see above)

3. Max temp for the three months __14.2C___
Min temp for the three months ___-7.8C__

4. Highest wind gust in knots _48___ kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar ___5.9cm______

OPTIONAL comments ________________________

oterra

1. DEC IMT will be 5.1
JAN IMT will be 4.1
FEB IMT will be 4.3

2. DEC precip will be 80%
JAN precip will be 105 %
FEB precip will be 110 %

3. Max temp for the three months 14.2c
Min temp for the three months -12.2.c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 70 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 29cm

waterways

1.
DEC IMT will be 4.7
JAN IMT will be 1.7
FEB IMT will be 3.9

2. DEC precip will be 94 %
JAN precip will be 83 %
FEB precip will be 149 %

3. Max temp for the three months 14.9
Min temp for the three months -15.9

4. Highest wind gust in knots 60 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 10.3

forkassed

DEC IMT will be 4.5
JAN IMT will be 4.6
FEB IMT will be 4.9
DEC precip will be 80 %
JAN precip will be 85 %
FEB precip will be 95 %
Max temp for the three months 16.8
Min temp for the three months -14
Highest wind gust in knots 70 kt
Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar will be 19cm

roryc1

DEC IMT will be 4.7
JAN IMT will be 1.4
FEB IMT will be 3.7

2. DEC precip will be 95 %
JAN precip will be 89 %
FEB precip will be 115 %

3. Max temp for the three months 13.5
Min temp for the three months -11.3

4. Highest wind gust in knots 66 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 55cm

M.T. Cranium

Please note, midnight tonight is the deadline for entries.

If you haven't seen my post a few days ago, and you are already entered, please note a change in location for the snowfall measurements. You have the option to change your snowfall forecast up to the end of Sunday 21st.

I will be sending a PM to all contestants who have not thanked the post (as a way of saying no changes) or made their changes known.

Good luck and may the coldest, snowiest forecast win!

Winger_PL

Change:

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar ---- 21

talkabout

1. DEC IMT will be 6.2c
JAN IMT will be 5.7c
FEB IMT will be 5.4c

2. DEC precip will be 90%
JAN precip will be 115%
FEB precip will be 110%

3. Max temp for the three months 14.3c
Min temp for the three months -8.1c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 74 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 18cms

Rebelbrowser

I appreciate I missed the deadline on this. Just for the hell of it though these are my non competition guesses

1. DEC IMT will be 2.2c
JAN IMT will be 2.7c
FEB IMT will be 4.3c

2. DEC precip will be 70%
JAN precip will be 85%
FEB precip will be 145%

3. Max temp for the three months 14.7c
Min temp for the three months -10.7c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 66 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 23cms

M.T. Cranium

Rebelbrowser, we'll accept your entry, and any others submitted this weekend. Anyone has the right to amend submitted forecasts until midnight Sunday. I am reminding people also that the snowfall measuring site will be Danno's IWN weather station located near Durrow. Anyone wishing to amend their earlier Casement prediction has to the end of the weekend.

Firm deadline now -- Sunday 2401 GMT (or 0001 Monday really).

Should be either a pile of snow or a pile of fun, and in some cases, both. :cool:

maquiladora

1. DEC IMT will be 3.7
JAN IMT will be 4.0
FEB IMT will be 4.9

2. DEC precip will be 60%
JAN precip will be 110 %
FEB precip will be 120 %

3. Max temp for the three months 15.2c
Min temp for the three months -11.0c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 75 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 30cm

Iancar29

1. DEC IMT will be 3.9
JAN IMT will be 4.0
FEB IMT will be 4.6

2. DEC precip will be 64%
JAN precip will be 103 %
FEB precip will be 120 %

3. Max temp for the three months 14.2c
Min temp for the three months -10.0c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 75 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 44cm

M.T. Cranium

And the referee blows his whistle ... entires are now closed, in response to the request for amendments on snowfall, please note one change by PM ...

Homolumo is now going for 30 cms.

The notified contestants have the rest of Monday to respond, quite a few have let me know they are sticking with the original forecasts, so just waiting for one or two to make this official.

Hellboy99 has kindly provided his services and has a nifty table ready to place in the thread when we have the entries finalized.

We'll try to keep the thread updated with relevant stats but as most of you are regulars in the monthly contest, you already know where those are available anyway.

Good luck to all our contestants (looks like about two dozen).