New -- Boards WINTER forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2010 12:34am #1

Winter of 2010-11 forecast contest
________________________________

Here's your chance to make a forecast for the whole winter of 2010-11 in Ireland and earn the admiration of your peers, plus any valuable gifts that materialize from the ambient surroundings.

This may seem like a bridge too far to some of our regular monthly forecast entrants, but you're all in the same boat and playing by the same rules, so give it a try -- and please note the rules very carefully because some of them are different from the monthly rules. I considered having a secret ballot where your forecast only appeared after the deadline, but decided that would probably result in a reduced field of entrants and more work for the organizers.

Thanks to Hellboy99, I have an assistant who will be able to tabulate the entries once all received. Without further ado then, here are the rules and please note very carefully,

the deadline for entries will be Wednesday 17 November at 2359h GMT

and this will be an inflexible rule, no exceptions.

Just for reference, you should read the contest questions, then fill in the contest entry form at the end, block copy it, and post your filled-out form, or you have the option to PM it to myself or to Hellboy99, for which we will issue a receipt and place a notice in the thread (such as "Kevinfromcarrymecarefully has placed an entry.")

CONTEST QUESTIONS (and weighted points)
__________________________________

(1) Predict the IMT value for each of the primary winter months, December, January and February. For your reference, IMT is a simplified national average explained in the monthly threads using five central Ireland stations, and the 1961-90 values of these are

Dec 5.3
Jan 4.6
Feb 4.7

If you are unfamiliar with this concept, please note, a monthly mean temperature is the average of daily highs and overnight lows (or whenever these occur) through the month. A mean of 5.3, for instance, could refer to average daytime readings near 8.3 and average night minima near 2.3.

These monthly values are each worth 10% of the total points. The seasonal average, worked out by us from your entries, is worth 20% of the total points, for a total of 50%.

(2) Predict the total precipitation for the three months, first for each month, then we take a seasonal average from your predictions ... and these should be in percentage of normal. For example, you could say 75% Dec, 110% Jan, 100% February ... and this would reduce to 95% for the season. Note -- we will be taking the raw average of months and not the slightly different seasonal value (these can vary by 1-2 per cent because February is a shorter month, but it won't affect the scoring enough to worry about it).

These monthly values are each worth 5% of the total points, and so is the seasonal average, for a total of 20%

(3) Predict the highest and lowest temperatures in the period 1 Dec 2010 to 28 Feb 2011 at the regularly listed weather stations on the met.ie website. If unfamiliar with that list, please check them out and note the absence of very cold second-order rural stations that might show up in climate bulletins later. Last winter we saw some readings at these out-of-contest stations that were five degrees or so lower than the "official" stations.

These two predictions will each be worth 5% of the points for a combined 10%.

(4) Predict the strongest wind gust in knots on land at the same met.ie stations as mentioned in the previous question. One knot is approximately 1.8 km/hr if that's helpful to you, or about 14% greater than m.p.h. Values between 50 and 100 have verified in recent winters. This is an estimate, but 80 knots would be about the average value for this question.

This prediction is worth ten per cent of the total.

(5) Predict the total snowfall for the "contest winter season" at Casement. The "contest winter season" will be defined as 1 November to 31 March. Any snow that happens to fall in October, April or May (or later) will not count towards this contest question. Any snow that has already fallen in November before your entry will count. Give your answer in centimetres.

This prediction is worth ten per cent of the total.

Scoring rules

Monthly (and seasonal in brackets) mean temperatures will be scored as follows:

10 (20) points for correct or within 0.1

9 (18) points for 0.2 or 0.3 errors

8 (16) points for 0.4 or 0.5 errors

etc

to 1 (2) points for 1.8 or 1.9 errors

or, if applicable, a minimum scoring rule will apply, ensuring that by rank order, one third of entrants score and by rank order of predictions, with ties equally distributed and towards the bottom end of the scores where necessary. For example, if a month is considerably different from most predictions, the scoring will go to the one-third of entrants closest to that value and all points but 10 (20) must be awarded.

For the seasonal max and min, these will be scored by taking half of whichever of the following gives the fairer allocation of points, with half points preserved in the scoring:

(one half of ...)

(a) 10 points for a direct hit or 0.1 error, down to 1 point for 1.8 or 1.9 error,

or (b) points from rank order given to top ten entries, extending to as many as necessary with ties for 2 and 1 points (the 2s not excluding the 1s but above that, ties would exclude, for example, three tied at 5 would give 2 as the next score).

(b) would only be used if (a) fails to generate 8, 5, 3, 2, 1 as a minimum for the field at large.

For the rainfall averages, the same logic as above would apply, including the half points, with the error ranges changed from 0.1 degree to 3 per cent. For example, 97-103 per cent qualifies as full points if verification is 100%.

For the wind forecast, the ten points are awarded in rank order, with ten entrants receiving points for 10-19 entries, 20 for 20-29 (in pairs) or 30 for any greater number (in triples, for example, three closest get 10 points in that scenario).

For the snowfall forecast, the ten points are also awarded in rank order, with ten points for the closest, nine for second closest, etc, and these will also be doubled or tripled up if the field is large enough.

Note that there are no sunshine forecasts required, it was felt that this variable would be too closely correlated with other variables to provide any real measure of accuracy.

Now, once you've thought about your forecast and come to an understanding on the rules, please use this form to submit an entry:

1. DEC IMT will be
JAN IMT will be
FEB IMT will be
(average -- you can submit, but we will check your math, or we do it for you)

2. DEC precip will be ___ %
JAN precip will be ___ %
FEB precip will be ___ %
(average -- see above)

3. Max temp for the three months _____
Min temp for the three months _____

4. Highest wind gust in knots ____ kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar _________

OPTIONAL comments ________________________

Thanks for entering. We will contact anyone whose entries seem to be outside the range of possible values to confirm the parameters. But you are ultimately responsible for understanding the contest rules and the measurements by which validation occurs. Please note all temperatures will be converted to tenths (and scored likewise) if submitted in round numbers.

Please address questions on the thread as others may have similar questions, or PM if you prefer. Please note the private entry option explained above.

The rules may be amended if discussion on the thread gives any reason for clarification or amendment. The rules as posted on 18 November will be final. Early entrants have the option to amend their forecasts by the deadline.

WolfeIRE · 17-10-2010 12:47am

thanks MT and Hellboy!

1. DEC IMT will be 5.9
JAN IMT will be 4
FEB IMT will be 5.3

2. DEC precip will be 85%
JAN precip will be 105 %
FEB precip will be 120 %

3. Max temp for the three months 14.5c
Min temp for the three months - 11.5c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 61 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar ----16

OPTIONAL comments __What is the average wing speed velocity of an unladen swallow?

Su Campu · 17-10-2010 12:50am

Just one question MT - where will you get the actual snow cms figure from? As far as I know met.ie doesn't report snow depths. It would be a bit controversial using a liquid-frozen conversion, as this can vary widely depending on snow type

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2010 4:06am

Ogimet? If not, we will work this out by consensus. Perhaps somebody on the forum can go in and get the answers at source. I will put the word out, who lives within 10-15 miles of Casement? That might be a good start.

Maybe I will come over and pitch my tent. :cool:

Danno · 17-10-2010 12:17pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.7
JAN IMT will be 2.9
FEB IMT will be 3.7

2. DEC precip will be 75%
JAN precip will be 110 %
FEB precip will be 110 %

3. Max temp for the three months 15.7c
Min temp for the three months -9.7c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 77kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 27cm

I can supply the snow depth data if need be... but I am 60 miles SW of Casement, so a change of station for this question would be required.

Su Campu · 17-10-2010 1:08pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ogimet? If not, we will work this out by consensus. Perhaps somebody on the forum can go in and get the answers at source. I will put the word out, who lives within 10-15 miles of Casement? That might be a good start.

Maybe I will come over and pitch my tent. :cool:

I'm still not clear what the snow cms means and how it can be calculated. I can't see anywhere on Ogimet that reports snowfall depths, only lying snow depths, so one snowfall can be reported for days if it doesn't melt. In this contest, what does the total cms mean? At the end of the winter, how can we tot up the total snowfall?

Lumi · 17-10-2010 1:10pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Ogimet? If not, we will work this out by consensus. Perhaps somebody on the forum can go in and get the answers at source. I will put the word out, who lives within 10-15 miles of Casement? That might be a good start.

Maybe I will come over and pitch my tent. :cool:

I just checked Ogimet's data for last January and they do indeed have the snow depths for Casement so that should work fine

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03967&ndays=30&ano=2010&mes=02&day=01&hora=00&ord=REV&Send=Send

Su Campu · 17-10-2010 1:31pm

Fionagus wrote: »

I just checked Ogimet's data for last January and they do indeed have the snow depths for Casement so that should work fine

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03967&ndays=30&ano=2010&mes=02&day=01&hora=00&ord=REV&Send=Send

Yes, but they're only the average depth of lying snow that day. They give no indication of the depth of new snow that fell that day (if any).

Eg. take the 11th January summary (it says 8cms in your link above).

At the start of that day, the lying snow was 10cms, but 5cms melted during the day, leaving 5cms remaining that night. The average was therefore 7.5 (rounded to 8)cms. What use is that figure in this contest? No snow fell that day.

http://www.ogimet.com/display_synops.php?lang=en&lugar=03967&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&tipo=ALL&anof=2010&mesf=01&dayf=11&horaf=00

The lying snow is reported in the "4xxxx" group after the 333// group, on the second line). The report below shows 5cms lying at 00UTC on the 11th.

[SIZE=-1]AAXX 11001[/SIZE] [SIZE=-1]03967 11465 70906 10021 20009 30080 40197 57014 60011 76062 875//
333 42005 81712 87650=

[/SIZE]

Lumi · 17-10-2010 1:40pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, but they're only the average depth of lying snow that day. They give no indication of the depth of new snow that fell that day (if any).

Eg. take the 11th January summary (it says 8cms in your link above).

At the start of that day, the lying snow was 10cms, but 5cms melted during the day, leaving 5cms remaining that night. The average was therefore 7.5 (rounded to 8)cms. What use is that figure in this contest? No snow fell that day.

http://www.ogimet.com/display_synops.php?lang=en&lugar=03967&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&tipo=ALL&anof=2010&mesf=01&dayf=11&horaf=00

The lying snow is reported in the "4xxxx" group after the 333// group, on the second line). The report below shows 5cms lying at 00UTC on the 11th.

[/SIZE]

Your dead right Su, it is just a record of lying snow! - Sorry about that, I didn't read it properly

nacho libre · 17-10-2010 1:51pm

1. DEC IMT will be 4.5
JAN IMT will be 3.3
FEB IMT will be 4.6

2. DEC precip will be 70%
JAN precip will be 110 %
FEB precip will be 105 %

3. Max temp for the three months 14.6c
Min temp for the three months -9.4c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 80 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 22cm

Deep Easterly · 17-10-2010 2:44pm

I'm sure met eireann would have the exact measurments of fallen snow at Casement when the winter is done and dusted with. Perhaps it might be worth contacting them?

Or how about scraping the snow measurement question and go for the number of days with lying snow at the station for the winter period just to make things a little easier???

Just a couple of suggestions*..:o

nacho libre · 17-10-2010 3:07pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'm sure met eireann would have the exact measurments of fallen snow at Casement when the winter is done and dusted with. Perhaps it might be worth contacting them?

Or how about scraping the snow measurement question and go for the number of days with lying snow at the station for the winter period just to make things a little easier???

Just a couple of suggestions*..:o

yes. and how about as a bonus question:
we are asked when the first snowfall will be recorded at any of the met stations?

patneve2 · 17-10-2010 4:59pm

optimistic winter snow accumulation predictions there!!

TheInquisitor · 17-10-2010 5:15pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.2
JAN IMT will 3.4
FEB IMT will 4.6
(average 4.4? you can submit, but we will check your math, or we do it for you)

2. DEC precip will be 59 %
JAN precip will be 135 %
FEB precip will be 102 %
(average -- see above)

3. Max temp for the three months 13.7
Min temp for the three months -9.8

4. Highest wind gust in knots 68 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 19cm

OPTIONAL comments . MT the amount of time you put into your opening post astounds me. Thank you very much. We wouldn't have a weather forum without you! By the way that £10 is half yours because i used your forecast to place my bet!!! Spot on!! Thanks again

hellboy99 · 17-10-2010 9:02pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.3
JAN IMT will be 4
FEB IMT will be 4.3

2. DEC precip will be 77%
JAN precip will be 109 %
FEB precip will be 112 %

3. Max temp for the three months 15c
Min temp for the three months -11c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 78 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 32cm

thetonynator · 17-10-2010 9:38pm

1. DEC IMT will be 4.8
JAN IMT will be 4.9
FEB IMT will be 4.5

2. DEC precip will be 80%
JAN precip will be 110
FEB precip will be 80%

3. Max temp for the three months 13.7
Min temp for the three months -7.8

4. Highest wind gust in knots 55 knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 17.5cm

OPTIONAL comments _ Great work lads, a lot of effort and time gone into this!!!

Deep Easterly · 17-10-2010 10:55pm

1. DEC IMT will be 6.7c
JAN IMT will be 6.3c
FEB IMT will be 4.9c

2. DEC precip will be 70%
JAN precip will be 140%
FEB precip will be 330%

3. Max temp for the three months 15.3c
Min temp for the three months -6.3c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 88 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 3cm

OPTIONAL comments: It's all fun and games till someone loses an eye.

gothwalk · 18-10-2010 11:32am

1. DEC IMT will be 4.9
JAN IMT will be 3.7
FEB IMT will be 3.9

2. DEC precip will be 85 %
JAN precip will be 85 %
FEB precip will be 110 %

3. Max temp for the three months: 15.5
Min temp for the three months: -6.5

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 65 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 21.5cm

gothwalk · 18-10-2010 11:34am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

1
FEB precip will be 330%

Right. Cubit measuring stick, and you animals, start pairing off there!

homolumo · 19-10-2010 9:31pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.9
JAN IMT will be 4.1
FEB IMT will be 4.2

2. DEC precip will be 81%
JAN precip will be 116 %
FEB precip will be 121 %

3. Max temp for the three months 15.3c
Min temp for the three months -9.0c

4. Highest wind gust in knots: 69 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 12 cm

pauldry · 20-10-2010 7:25pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.8c
JAN IMT will be 4.2c
FEB IMT will be 5.7c

2. DEC precip will be 108%
JAN precip will be 102%
FEB precip will be 105%

3. Max temp for the three months 15.0c
Min temp for the three months -7.1c

4. Highest wind gust in knots 75 Knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 25cm

OPTIONAL comments: A Winter without snow is like a desert without icecream

thetonynator · 23-10-2010 12:56pm

thetonynator wrote: »

1. DEC IMT will be 4.8
JAN IMT will be 4.9
FEB IMT will be 4.5

2. DEC precip will be 80%
JAN precip will be 110
FEB precip will be 80%

3. Max temp for the three months 13.7
Min temp for the three months -7.8

4. Highest wind gust in knots 55 knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 17.5cm

OPTIONAL comments _ Great work lads, a lot of effort and time gone into this!!!

I know i'm being awkward here but i've decided to edit my entry if its all right with ye!!!

I thought to myself that theres no point in wishing for one thing to happen and having another thing forecasted, so i cant have a win win situation!!!

So this is a mix of what I am hoping for and what i think will happen (although i have to say it is a lot more of what i'm hoping for and a lot less of what I think will happen!!)

1. DEC IMT will be 3.5
JAN IMT will be 2.0
FEB IMT will be 3.0

2. DEC precip will be 70%
JAN precip will be 65%
FEB precip will be 75%

3. Max temp for the three months 13.0
Min temp for the three months -12.5

4. Highest wind gust in knots 40 knots

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar: 40cm

Su Campu · 23-10-2010 10:58pm

So, what's the story about the snow cms? How are they going to be calculated?

M.T. Cranium · 24-10-2010 1:07am

We'll clarify this later this week, but if it becomes preferable to take Danno's helpful suggestion of using his station in Laois, where such measurements can be guaranteed, then all contestants will be notified and given the opportunity to revise their prediction if they feel a different location would change their guess. I'm hoping to get a confirmation from a request that we can get official measurements from Casement, as the ogimet data will not quite be the same thing as what we need.

It's my bad, over this way, snowfall amounts are routinely available in climate stats as the days go by, and here's how they are measured by the way ... at every standard three hour observation the snow depth in that three hour period is measured on a standard (and previously cleared) surface. These amounts, potentially eight in total, are added together. That's the daily snowfall in cms (or inches), even if some of it melts and the daily (once daily let's say) depth might be considerably less as a result. Or it may be more at some sites due to drifting. Usually it's less. I've measured snow many times for my amateur weather stations, but in the climate that I lived in, once a day was usually about the same as these cumulative amounts. However I do remember one time when six inches fell overnight (it was Oct 22-23, 1969) and the snow depth at noon was about half an inch then at 6 p.m. it was all gone. But for the contest, a day like that would count as 6 inches.

Anyway, if you've entered, just think about whether or not a change in location further inland to the southwest, would make you want to revise your forecast amount or not, and then we'll clarify the point we're going to use, so people not entered yet may as well hold off until this happens. I just need to discern whether this measurement is actually taken by anybody or if the once daily figure is all they do. Then I need to find out if we can know about it early enough in the year to service the contest.

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2010 8:55am

bump to the top ... if anyone's wondering what my forecast is, so am I. :cool:

200motels · 27-10-2010 4:12pm

1. Dec 5.1
Jan 4.9
Feb 4.4 2.Dec -4.9 12.7 Jan -6.8 11.9 Feb -4.1 15.9
3. Dec 121 Jan 130 Feb 120
4. Dec 58 Jan 60 Feb 49
5. 8cm
I hope I've done it right.

M.T. Cranium · 27-10-2010 4:20pm

No worries 200m, only the extremes for the season rather than each month, so we'll take your entry as -6.8 and 15.9 in that regard. Everything else is fine.

Lumi · 02-11-2010 7:28pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5.3C
JAN IMT will be 3.9C
FEB IMT will be 4.7C
(average 4.6C )

2. DEC precip will be 78% %
JAN precip will be 100%
FEB precip will be 113 %
(average 97%)

3. Max temp for the three months 15.9C
Min temp for the three months -10.1C

4. Highest wind gust in knots 71kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 21cm

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2010 10:42pm

Update on the contest. I contacted Met Eireann about the verification of snow depths at Casement. So far I haven't heard back. I will wait until 10 November and if I haven't resolved that issue, I will let all contestants know that we are switching the location. You may then adjust your prediction if you wish.

Also, on reading over the rules, I noticed that it was not specified that the period for maximum wind gust was intended to be 1 December to 28 February as with the extreme temperatures. Wind gusts observed in November or March will not count in validation.

If that causes you to revise your wind gust forecast, please let us know.

Strasser · 05-11-2010 11:59am

1. DEC IMT will be 6.2
JAN IMT will be 5.4
FEB IMT will be 6.1
(average -- you can submit, but we will check your math, or we do it for you)

2. DEC precip will be ___110 %
JAN precip will be ___115 %
FEB precip will be ___105 %
(average -- see above)

3. Max temp for the three months _____ 16.5
Min temp for the three months _____-6.8

4. Highest wind gust in knots ____86 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar _________ 10cm

dasa29 · 08-11-2010 1:43pm

1. DEC IMT will be 5
JAN IMT will be 4
FEB IMT will be 4.5

2. DEC precip will be 105 %
JAN precip will be 95%
FEB precip will be 90 %

3. Max temp for the three months 12
Min temp for the three months -12

4. Highest wind gust in knots 80 kt

5. Snowfall in cms at Casement for period 1 Nov to 31 Mar 30cm

New -- Boards WINTER forecast contest

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