Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

05-11-2010 9:08am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Potential stormy conditions, high rainfall and possibility of coastal flooding now headline news (8am news on RTE).

If the coastal surge gets up as far as your house,I think it might make Cnn,Sky news and fox..

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 9:09am

Looks like the GFS and ECM aren't showing such a large flabby core on this storm.

Gusts of around 100kmph in the Irish Sea and up along parts of the east coast here :

With very heavy rain sweeping in at the same time :

Mister men · 05-11-2010 9:09am

Is there two storms heading our way?

ch750536 · 05-11-2010 9:17am

I'm sure there is.

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 9:26am

Interesting that this storm is getting interest even on the American weather forums because of its very unusual track and how deep the models drop the pressure to.

Here is the Met Eireann outlook :

Sunday will start bright and dry with sunny spells. During the afternoon and evening it will become very windy or even stormy with widespread heavy rain and very strong West to Southwesterly winds. Some flooding is likely. As a deep area of low pressure tracks over Ireland during Sunday night and Monday there will be further periods of heavy rain and strong winds at times with more flooding likely. Max temperatures on Sunday and Monday will range 7 to 10 degrees. Clearer showery weather will set in on Monday evening and night with very strong and blustery Northerly winds turning Northeasterly.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 9:41am

SO.....EXCITED:D:p

Tabnabs · 05-11-2010 9:43am

A little breezy on Monday

irish1967 · 05-11-2010 9:49am

Seems RTE wasnt the only one to get their hurricanes mixed up

http://www.thejournal.ie/hurricane-warning-for-irish-coast-2010-11/

:rolleyes:

DOCARCH · 05-11-2010 9:49am

Deleted User wrote: »

If the coastal surge gets up as far as your house,I think it might make Cnn,Sky news and fox..

Ohhh....will cancel sand and bag order!

If the coastal surge got up as far as my house, there would be no news!

mike65 · 05-11-2010 9:55am

live image

WolfeIRE · 05-11-2010 10:09am

Hi all,

there are a few threads open at the moment all referring to the weekend storm. Any chance we could keep posts in the same thread as it's getting a bit mixed up.

Also, Storm Seamus is better than the incorrectly named Thomas i think:pac:

leahyl · 05-11-2010 10:16am

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

WolfeIRE · 05-11-2010 10:21am

leahyl wrote: »

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

the threat posed by a second potential storm has dissipated somewhat in the latest model output. That storm is now tracking WSW over Scotland leaving us with strong to gale force westerly winds on Friday/Saturday.

This may of course change again.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 10:25am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the threat posed by a second potential storm has dissipated somewhat in the latest model output. That storm is now tracking WSW over Scotland leaving us with strong to gale force westerly winds on Friday/Saturday.

This may of course change again.

Ok thanks - i guess things change constantly so can't really be that sure at this stage:)

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 10:30am

Not much change on the 06Z GFS. Looks like the track is shifted a little to the east but wobbles like that are going to happen on every run.

It will be interesting to see how the models compare to what actually happens. I've seen some comments on other boards that the models might not have a handle of the storm yet because of how fierce the jet will be. The jet is so strong. I see black shading right in the core of the stream there. Thats 350 kmph at 300hpa.

Su Campu · 05-11-2010 10:30am

leahyl wrote: »

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

There's no storm heading our way Thursday. The GFS and ECM have a depression well to our north, near Iceland, bringing just stiff westerly winds, but nothing more.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 10:36am

Su Campu wrote: »

There's no storm heading our way Thursday. The GFS and ECM have a depression well to our north, near Iceland, bringing just stiff westerly winds, but nothing more.

OK...:( bummer! I love a good storm! Well i know we will have one on Sunday anyway at least:) Keeping an eye on this thread - great work all of you weather experts!

Sierra Oscar · 05-11-2010 10:46am

When should we start to expect the affects of this storm at the weekend, late Sunday - or beforehand?

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 10:51am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

When should we start to expect the affects of this storm at the weekend, late Sunday - or beforehand?

Probably around Sunday afternoon rain should start to reach the west coast and winds will start to pick up. All depends on how fast it moves and the track it takes though.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 10:54am

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably around Sunday afternoon rain should start to reach the west coast and winds will start to pick up. All depends on how fast it moves and the track it takes though.

Also AA Roadwatch are warning of winds getting up to 100kmph but is there any chance they could go even higher than that? 100kmph is roughly 60mph right which is very strong but would that be considered storm force?

WolfeIRE · 05-11-2010 10:56am

BASED ON LATEST GFS OUTPUT

SW Winds will pick up from early Sunday eve along the west coast reaching strong to gale force by 5pm.

By 6pm, gale to storm force winds in excess of 70kph will effect much of the island

By midnight Sunday, winds will have slackened in the west as the low centre pushes over the country but winds will still be strong along the eastern seaboard (s to sw winds) and the northwest (westerly)

By 6-9am on Monday the strongest winds (nw) will be in Ulster and along the east coast. The rest of the country will not see winds really pick up until early afternoon. E and later NE winds will strengthen by 3-5pm on Monday across the entire country and will not weaken considerably until the late PM or early Tuesday morning.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 10:57am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

BASED ON LATEST GFS OUTPUT

SW Winds will pick up from early Sunday eve along the west coast reaching strong to gale force by 5pm.

By 6pm, gale to storm force winds in excess of 70kph will effect much of the island

By midnight Sunday, winds will have slackened in the west as the low centre pushes over the country but winds will still be strong along the eastern seaboard (s to sw winds) and the northwest (westerly)

By 6-9am on Monday the strongest winds (nw) will be in Ulster and along the east coast. The rest of the country will not see winds really pick up until early afternoon. E and later NE winds will strengthen by 3-5pm on Monday across the entire country and will not weaken cosndierably until the late PM or ealy Tuesday morning.

Wow sounds like a big one - just once it's cleared by Wednesday i'm happy (driving test!)

ThisRegard · 05-11-2010 10:59am

If anyone is building a patio they can pop down to Clontarf to get some sand for themselves, looks like there's tonnes of it there, see pics here
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/warning-as-hurricane-heads-for-our-shores-2408553.html?start=1

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 11:05am

leahyl wrote: »

Also AA Roadwatch are warning of winds getting up to 100kmph but is there any chance they could go even higher than that? 100kmph is roughly 60mph right which is very strong but would that be considered storm force?

Storm force is 10 on the Beaufort scale, 89–102 kmph, so yes that would be storm force. I think its too early know really because even fairly small changes in where and how quickly it forms will have a big impact on what we will get later. Somewhere around the British Isles will almost certainly get gusts well over 100kmph, I think thats pretty safe to say.

mickger844posts · 05-11-2010 11:15am

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting that this storm is getting interest even on the American weather forums because of its very unusual track and how deep the models drop the pressure to.

Here is the Met Eireann outlook :

Sunday will start bright and dry with sunny spells. During the afternoon and evening it will become very windy or even stormy with widespread heavy rain and very strong West to Southwesterly winds. Some flooding is likely. As a deep area of low pressure tracks over Ireland during Sunday night and Monday there will be further periods of heavy rain and strong winds at times with more flooding likely. Max temperatures on Sunday and Monday will range 7 to 10 degrees. Clearer showery weather will set in on Monday evening and night with very strong and blustery Northerly winds turning Northeasterly.

What American weather forum is it mentioned on Maq???

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 11:20am

mickger844posts wrote: »

What American weather forum is it mentioned on Maq???

www.easternuswx.com

Iancar29 · 05-11-2010 11:23am

Im starting to get very tempted to get a train down to tralee and go to the coast for the day just to witness this storm , especially if its not gonna effect the east that much!

WolfeIRE · 05-11-2010 11:25am

The East coast presently looks like seeing some of the strongest winds on Monday afternoon/evening Ian.

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 11:27am

Flood alert for Galway : http://www.galwaynews.ie/15921-city-put-flood-alert-high-tides-heavy-rain-and-strong-winds-are-promised

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 11:49am

UKMO has a warning out now for NI and western Britain for Sunday.

An unusually deep area of low pressure will bring a period of severe gales and heavy rain on Sunday evening with inland gusts likely to reach 55-65mph in places, especially in areas exposed to the south to southeasterly winds. There is a risk of disruption due to falling trees, especially given that some trees are still in leaf

In addition, roads on high ground in the Scottish mountains may well see significant snowfall causing disruption.

Issued at: 1128 Fri 5 Nov

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Iancar29 · 05-11-2010 11:56am

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The East coast presently looks like seeing some of the strongest winds on Monday afternoon/evening Ian.

Ill try get a video of it up on tuesday so!

anoble66 · 05-11-2010 11:57am

not sure if its entirely relevant, but last night ESB have dropped the water level by at least 2ft in the section that stretches from Ballina / Killaloe towards Annacotty Weir. Workers are also out examing the esb poles around and about....reckon they are definately gearing up for a serious storm as I have never seen them do this before.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 12:00pm

anoble66 wrote: »

not sure if its entirely relevant, but last night ESB have dropped the water level by at least 2ft in the section that stretches from Ballina / Killaloe towards Annacotty Weir. Workers are also out examing the esb poles around and about....reckon they are definately gearing up for a serious storm as I have never seen them do this before.

sounds serious! If that's what they are actually doing - gearing up for a storm. Can't remember the last time we had a proper wind/rain storm though -well not in cork anyway. I mean i know we had the flood last year but it wasn't very windy really

gbee · 05-11-2010 12:25pm

leahyl wrote: »

I mean i know we had the flood last year but it wasn't very windy really

And the biggest contributor to that flooding was the action of the ESB at Inniscarra. We had a very bad forecast well in advance but we did not receive anything exceptional and nothing the that ESB in Inniscarra should not have been able to handle.

Su Campu · 05-11-2010 12:27pm

Just to put it to bed for once and for all, as people are still saying to me in work that we're in for Hurricane Tomas Sunday night - the storm we'll get is nothing whatsoever got to do with Tomas, as you can see from the chart below. If anybody says it to you, please put them right, cos it's driving me mad!!!!

06UTC this morning, showing the start of Sunday's system just off the US east coast, and Tomas well to the south, over Haiti. The large upper trough marked in blue will deepen further, tightening the upper gradient between it and the ridge, strengthening the jetstream to well over 200mph by late Saturday/early Sunday, which will give the forcing required for explosive cyclogenesis during Sunday afternoon.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 12:28pm

gbee wrote: »

And the biggest contributor to that flooding was the action of the ESB at Inniscarra. We had a very bad forecast well in advance but we did not receive anything exceptional and nothing the that ESB in Inniscarra should not have been able to handle.

Yes i agree ESB was at fault here but i don't recall it being too windy was what i was saying:)

gbee · 05-11-2010 12:30pm

Su Campu wrote: »

. If anybody says it to you, please put them right, cos it's driving me mad!!!!

I've emailed the indo.ie as they seem to be whom everybody else is quoting. Can't email 96fm without an account apparently, wouldn't make any difference anyway tbh.

gbee · 05-11-2010 12:38pm

leahyl wrote: »

Yes i agree ESB was at fault here but i don't recall it being too windy was what i was saying:)

Yes, I'm agree with you, we did not get a significant weather event and those floods were my biggest surprise ~ I knew immediately that the weather had not generated this response.

But with that gaping whole in the Quay wall still and the collapsed building alongside it, I'm heading there Monday morning with the camera.

See you there perhaps.

leahyl · 05-11-2010 12:40pm

gbee wrote: »

Yes, I'm agree with you, we did not get a significant weather event and those floods were my biggest surprise ~ I knew immediately that the weather had not generated this response.

But with that gaping whole in the Quay wall still and the collapsed building alongside it, I'm heading there Monday morning with the camera. See you there perhaps.

HAHA unlikely - i'm not sure if i want to risk my life if it's gonna be that bad:eek:! Take care:)

WolfeIRE · 05-11-2010 12:40pm

Good to see the Government stepping in early to avoid last year's flooding fiasco by providing free cheese to everyone

leahyl · 05-11-2010 12:42pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Good to see the Government stepping in early to avoid last year's flooding fiasco by providing free cheese to everyone

I know - excellent - that's really what we need as opposed to repaired quay walls and sand bags....:rolleyes::D

Chicken Run · 05-11-2010 12:47pm

leahyl wrote: »

I know - excellent - that's really what we need as opposed to repaired quay walls and sand bags....:rolleyes::D

perhaps it could be melted to stick the walls back together ??

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)

leahyl · 05-11-2010 12:48pm

Chicken Run wrote: »

perhaps it could be melted to stick the walls back together ??

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)

HAHA! Brilliant:D

eskimocat · 05-11-2010 12:58pm

There was a small bit from Eagle on Today FM news just now...

eskimocat · 05-11-2010 1:00pm

Large lumps could be carved to form small boats

(not sure whether or not cheese actually floats.... back in a sec...)[/QUOTE]

Well does it!!! lololololol

Meant to warn against testing cheese with holes in lolol

maquiladora · 05-11-2010 1:07pm

This is a good wide view to give you an idea of where the highest winds from this storm could be. You can see that we could be mostly protected from the strongest winds by being right in the core of the storm which is forecast to have a fairly large, flabby core. If the core was tighter and/or a bit further to the east then we could see a really serious storm here, but if it stays like that chart shows then we probably won't get damaging gusts apart from around exposed coastal areas and all the really high winds will be out at sea.

So while it is important to keep an eye on this one, I wouldn't panic or anything.

dsmythy · 05-11-2010 1:10pm

I seem to recall quite a large deep depression over the central U.S. a couple weeks back. We shared a cold winter with them last year, could we be a sharing a stormy one this time around?

oterra · 05-11-2010 1:34pm

What level of rainfall is expected?

Iancar29 · 05-11-2010 1:34pm

OK some1 clarify this for me, on the Hearald FRONT page they have " HURRICANE ON THE WAY"... THey are wrong in saying its the last of Tomas aint they?

pauldry · 05-11-2010 1:38pm

Id expect about 30mm of rain in a lot of places. Think its too active a system to bring a wave of 50 or 60mm

WInds 60 to 70 mph if core moves east

Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

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