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Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    crucamim wrote: »
    At the risk of diverting the thread and incurring the wrath of the moderators, was there another line in that same area which did run to Dalkey (or Blackrock)?

    What wrath? We're nice people. :D

    Yeah, it's become incredibly obvious the last 2 or 3 pages have veered more into DART territory, but seeing as how there's very little new developments happening on either project and how this project must be viewed in the context of the overall network, I don't personally mind some overlap in discussion. If the thread looks like it's going to become completely DART-related, we can always move posts to the DART Underground thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 897 ✭✭✭crucamim


    spacetweek wrote: »
    It's not. It absolutely *has* to compete effectively against the car, or it's doomed.

    And it will also have to compete effectively with the bus. The difficulty finding car parking space near the city centre might make the bus the more deadly competitor. Moreover, the new motorway network threatens to make buses even more attractive for long distance passengers. And the motorways provide potential for longer, wider and more comfortable buses.

    It might be the car which saves the passenger rail servces. Cars congest roads thereby slowing bus services. That keeps passenger rail competitive in large urban areas.

    If the government were to introduce "no private motoring" zones in Dublin, rail passenger services, on the current rail infrastructure, would be doomed. And might be doomed regardless of the infrastructure available to trains.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    crucamim wrote: »
    At the risk of diverting the thread and incurring the wrath of the moderators, was there another line in that same area which did run to Dalkey (or Blackrock)?

    The one thats still open as the DART.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,968 Mod ✭✭✭✭spacetweek


    DWCommuter wrote: »
    I suggested the route be upgraded post interconnector/Metro as a cheaper and easier alternative than the direct route.
    I thought it was meant to be a cheaper alternative to the direct route that we could have in place quickly? Surely by the time IC/MN are finished (2018?) we'll already have the direct route.
    DWCommuter wrote:
    Personally I believe the M3 will kill off the demand for a rail service to Navan and Im on record with that for a number of years.
    Personally I think the road won't satisfy all transport needs, but I'm not 100% sure - these things tend to rely on a large number of factors. I think this is a hard one to call, so I'll leave it at that.
    crucamim wrote:
    It might be the car which saves the passenger rail servces. Cars congest roads thereby slowing bus services. That keeps passenger rail competitive in large urban areas.
    Yes, it always is. Even in cities with very efficient bus systems, rail has an advantage that buses can never have - complete segregation from traffic and intersections. So rail is worth investing in for Irish cities even assuming we overhaul the bus system.

    Anyway, I really really hope Metro North starts early next year as planned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    DWCommuter wrote: »
    Personally I believe the M3 will kill off the demand for a rail service to Navan and Im on record with that for a number of years.

    But it'll still bottleneck completely once it gets to the M50 roundabout. That's where the main traffic nightmare is IMO (N3 from M50 roundabout into city centre).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭mackerski


    OisinT wrote: »
    But it'll still bottleneck completely once it gets to the M50 roundabout. That's where the main traffic nightmare is IMO (N3 from M50 roundabout into city centre).

    In a few months time there won't be an M50 roundabout on the city-bound N3.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    mackerski wrote: »
    In a few months time there won't be an M50 roundabout on the city-bound N3.
    I realise that, but I'd be surprised if that really totally solves the problem of traffic from the roundabout (which will still be there but with flyovers/onramp/offramp for M50) into the city centre. The narrow Navan Road is always congested and there's nothing they can do about it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 108 ✭✭eia340600


    mackerski wrote: »
    In a few months time there won't be an M50 roundabout on the city-bound N3.

    I may be mistaken, but as far as I know there will be a roundabout, with traffic lights, situated on the N3 just before and after the M50 junction.Surely these will cause some build-up.I couldn't believe it when I saw that the GSJ was being put in without these roundabouts being removed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭etchyed


    eia340600 wrote: »
    I may be mistaken, but as far as I know there will be a roundabout, with traffic lights, situated on the N3 just before and after the M50 junction.Surely these will cause some build-up.I couldn't believe it when I saw that the GSJ was being put in without these roundabouts being removed.
    Both roundabouts are gone already. Auburn Avenue roundabout is now a traffic-light controlled crossroads. The Blanch village roundabout is now also a traffic light-controlled T-junction but will be bypassed by most traffic (N3 In, N3 In-M50N, N3 In-M50S, M50N-N3 Out, M50S-N3 Out will all avoid it). The big remaining problem is the Auburn Avenue crossroads but I expect the lights will give very high priority to through traffic.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭DWCommuter


    spacetweek wrote: »
    I thought it was meant to be a cheaper alternative to the direct route that we could have in place quickly? Surely by the time IC/MN are finished (2018?) we'll already have the direct route.

    Personally I think the road won't satisfy all transport needs, but I'm not 100% sure - these things tend to rely on a large number of factors. I think this is a hard one to call, so I'll leave it at that.

    Yes, it always is. Even in cities with very efficient bus systems, rail has an advantage that buses can never have - complete segregation from traffic and intersections. So rail is worth investing in for Irish cities even assuming we overhaul the bus system.

    Anyway, I really really hope Metro North starts early next year as planned.

    First and foremost, if the Interconnector is delayed to 2018, there isn't a hope in hell that Navan will happen before it. In fact, Ive said it before, the direct route to Navan will never happen.

    The route via Drogheda is a cheaper alternative and could be in place a lot quicker. Putting it in place now allows for only a few train paths. But as part of a post interconnector scenario, far more paths are available.

    But as Ive said before its all hypothetical. I personally can't see the Interconnector ever being built. The wealth was temporary and based on unsustainable construction.

    As for Metro North, I'll throw the piss on the picnic line out again. Despite it being a PPP and a case of the state not having to upfront the cash, it still has to be funded annually for many years. (the payback) If you consider the cuts to micky mouse budgets thats going on, then a few hundred million a year for many years doesn't look enticing. You can add to that the continued world wide banking crisis that makes it difficult to finance anything. The aforementioned 500 million loan towards constructions costs is a pittance and at the end of the day is still a loan.

    My prediction - Metro North won't start anytime soon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Unfortunately for everyone in a cyclical economic model such as the one in the western world, in order to get out of a recession/depression major works must be commissioned from whatever money can be found. Money is theoretical and banks can give loans to governments to finance large projects.
    Those projects put people back into work who can then make money to spend which causes growth in business, and so on...

    We cannot afford to sit on our hands and do nothing. Infrastructure is a proven investment internationally to benefit the economy once it is done quickly enough to prevent a depression.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    Unfortunately any money that could potentially be put into these projects, or job-creation measures is currently being shovelled rapidly into a big burning black hole called Anglo Irish - systemically important for FF it would seem, but not for Ireland. I don't want to turn this into a politics thread, but I feel people who think Lenny is doing a great job really need to wake up and smell the bulls**t. He's abysmal.

    A 500 million loan between two projects which add up to at least 8-10 billion between them is little more than a token gesture.

    Metro North is more likely to go ahead though, I think we all accept that at this point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,695 ✭✭✭donaghs


    crucamim wrote: »
    At the risk of diverting the thread and incurring the wrath of the moderators, was there another line in that same area which did run to Dalkey (or Blackrock)?

    One of the old Dublin trams did go from Nelson's Pillar to Dalkey, via Blackrock and Dun Laoghaire. The no.8 I think, who's replacement Dublin Bus still follows a similar route.
    Here's a map of the routes:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dublin_1922-23_Map_Suburbs_MatureTrams_wFaresTimes_Trains_EarlyBus_Canals_pubv2.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    DWCommuter wrote: »

    As for Metro North, I'll throw the piss on the picnic line out again. Despite it being a PPP and a case of the state not having to upfront the cash, it still has to be funded annually for many years. (the payback) If you consider the cuts to micky mouse budgets thats going on, then a few hundred million a year for many years doesn't look enticing. You can add to that the continued world wide banking crisis that makes it difficult to finance anything. The aforementioned 500 million loan towards constructions costs is a pittance and at the end of the day is still a loan.

    My prediction - Metro North won't start anytime soon.

    I agree that Metro North is by no means certain, but I'd say it's more like 50:50 if it's done or not.

    Realistically, 100 million a year is not much in the context of our debt.

    I would predict that in five years time a period of very high inflation will kick in, as all western governments, especially the USA, Japan, Germany and the UK are all currently saddled with lots of debt, and inflating it away is politically easier than long term austerity. This would make borrowing now more affordable.

    I'm sorta hoping that the outgoing Government signs contracts for some major infrastructural projects on their way out the door - even as a kick in the face to the next crowd - they know they wont be in government for a few elections after this, and in ten years time they can sell themselves as the people that built Ireland's roads and public transport, as opposed to the ones who viciously cut spending.

    I still won't vote for them, but I would like to see them do it...

    Either way, I don't think the picture is quite as bleak as you make out, but whether anything will be built soon is very uncertain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    People just dont realise how much money was put into Anglo and its sickening.

    From Wiki -
    In order to protect the capital position of the Bank the Minister for Finance provided €4 billion in capital between June and September 2009. A liability management exercise was also undertaken in August 2009 and €1.8 billion of equity was realised on the buyback, at a significant discount, of subordinated debt instruments. In December 2009, the Minister committed to safeguard the Bank’s regulatory capital position. As a result the Minister issued of a promissory note for €8.3 billion on 31 March 2010, bringing the government's investment in Anglo Irish bank to €12.3 billion.[9]

    €12.9 billion would build the Interconnector, Metro North, all five MIUs and would probably leave enough money spare for half of the M20. Its an absolutely disgusting waste of money. Now granted, the alternative would also be bad but it should never have been allowed to get to the state it did in the first place.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    People just dont realise how much money was put into Anglo and its sickening.

    From Wiki -



    €12.9 billion would build the Interconnector, Metro North, all five MIUs and would probably leave enough money spare for half of the M20. Its an absolutely disgusting waste of money. Now granted, the alternative would also be bad but it should never have been allowed to get to the state it did in the first place.
    Change the record. This isn't a thread about Anglo! Unfortunately we were about to turn into Greece and something had to be done. It was done. End of story.

    Back to discussing MN


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭DWCommuter


    OisinT wrote: »
    Change the record. This isn't a thread about Anglo! Unfortunately we were about to turn into Greece and something had to be done. It was done. End of story.

    Back to discussing MN

    When these big projects are gathering dust on a shelf, you won't be so quick to say "End of Story". All of the recent financial meltdown scenarios are relevant to MN. It still hasn't been officially approved and financed

    Unfortunately if you all want to enjoy discussing your pet projects then you will also have to face the financial realities they face.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,856 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    OisinT wrote: »
    Change the record. This isn't a thread about Anglo! Unfortunately we were about to turn into Greece and something had to be done. It was done. End of story.

    Back to discussing MN

    B****x.

    The liars who run our country said that "we" couldn't let a bank fail so they threw our money at their mess.

    Yet, Postbank, a bank that actually served communities as opposed to FF's mafia, was let flunk. :mad:

    A once rich country now left with a massive infrastructure deficit including everything from broadband to the capital city's public transport.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Zebra3 wrote: »
    B****x.

    The liars who run our country said that "we" couldn't let a bank fail so they threw our money at their mess.

    Yet, Postbank, a bank that actually served communities as opposed to FF's mafia, was let flunk. :mad:

    A once rich country now left with a massive infrastructure deficit including everything from broadband to the capital city's public transport.
    and I'm sure you have a degree in Economics that enables you to understand the intricacies of macroeconomics and lending models. :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    OisinT wrote: »
    and I'm sure you have a degree in Economics that enables you to understand the intricacies of macroeconomics and lending models. :rolleyes:

    There is no intricacy in throwing money at a failed bank that was never systemically important, never will be systemically important, will never produce a return, might not ever lend again, has hidden the scale of its losses on several occassions and whom we are not allowed to know the bondholders of.

    Also, I dunno where you're getting the idea of we were about to turn into Greece. We're still firmly headed in that direction! Lenihan has done a terrible job and his "rescue package" was almost as horrendeous as the mess that was made of the situation in the first place. Like Britain, our economy doesn't have solid fundamentals. The means to put these fundamentals in place, one of these being Infrastructure, of course, have been shovelled into FF's Anglo project.

    So to relate this back to the Metro North project (and Interconnector, and the other Luas lines), they have been put in serious doubt. Don't get me wrong, I would like to see the Interconnector and Luas BXD go ahead, and if we must have this Metro North then it should be done at the same time to avoid digging up the city twice. We will have to see what happens when and if planning permission is granted. My personal prediction? A tranche of enabling works will go ahead to give the illusion of progress, but then it will stop.

    Also, I'm aware the thread is veering into politics, but we can allow it in this case because the politics and fiscal policy are directly impacting the Infrastructure provision in this nation, and I think that's important to discuss.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    BluntGuy wrote: »
    There is no intricacy in throwing money at a failed bank that was never systemically important, never will be systemically important, will never produce a return, might not ever lend again, has hidden the scale of its losses on several occassions and whom we are not allowed to know the bondholders of.

    Also, I dunno where you're getting the idea of we were about to turn into Greece. We're still firmly headed in that direction! Lenihan has done a terrible job and his "rescue package" was almost as horrendeous as the mess that was made of the situation in the first place. Like Britain, our economy doesn't have solid fundamentals. The means to put these fundamentals in place, one of these being Infrastructure, of course, have been shovelled into FF's Anglo project.
    Again I'm sure that you have economic modelling and forecasting and a fundamental understanding of the banking infrastructure of this country to make such a bold statement


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,132 ✭✭✭Stonewolf


    OisinT wrote: »
    Again I'm sure that you have economic modelling and forecasting and a fundamental understanding of the banking infrastructure of this country to make such a bold statement

    You don't need it, every economist worth his salt has come out and said this is a bad idea. All this money is being used to pay off bond holders. Who are the bond holders? They're the people who bet the farm on the 10,000:1 and now that it's exploded on the first hurdle the bookie is essentially saying "Ah well, sure we'll pay out anyway" and that money is coming from OUR pockets. Those people knew the risks, they knew it all might go sour but they were blinded by greed, they deserve the fall, they expect the fall, but thanks to dear old FF they're not going to suffer it, we, the hapless spectators in the whole affair are instead. All the government had to do was put in place a couple of protocols to allow banks to fail, the other banks could be strengthened by taking on parts of its portfolio, the rest going to NAMA and the bond holders wouldn't hold it against us in the future because they bet on the odds not the memory.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Stonewolf wrote: »
    You don't need it, every economist worth his salt has come out and said this is a bad idea. All this money is being used to pay off bond holders. Who are the bond holders? They're the people who bet the farm on the 10,000:1 and now that it's exploded on the first hurdle the bookie is essentially saying "Ah well, sure we'll pay out anyway" and that money is coming from OUR pockets. Those people knew the risks, they knew it all might go sour but they were blinded by greed, they deserve the fall, they expect the fall, but thanks to dear old FF they're not going to suffer it, we, the hapless spectators in the whole affair are instead. All the government had to do was put in place a couple of protocols to allow banks to fail, the other banks could be strengthened by taking on parts of its portfolio, the rest going to NAMA and the bond holders wouldn't hold it against us in the future because they bet on the odds not the memory.
    That's not entirely correct. I'm not saying THIS NAMA was a great idea, but any economist worth their salt has come out and said a NAMA needed to happen. In typical fashion this government was too slow to react and they had to get something together quickly and haphazardly.
    A NAMA needed to happen and it could have been better, but this is the one we have and there is no point in sitting around bitching and moaning about it.

    Furthermore I'm bloody sick of people with no education whatsoever in economics talking out their arses about how they know what is best for the country economically. Certainly the bunch of idiots in power have no clue what they're doing, but lets not have everyone voice their opinions on something that is moot.
    Jaysus, it's like the same bloody thread everywhere I go now. Is this thread about Metro North or about complain about NAMA - I believe that thread exits elsewhere.

    Yes, the money we have spent on NAMA could have built everything and bought us all a new car... but it didn't. End of story. Move on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,132 ✭✭✭Stonewolf


    OisinT wrote: »
    That's not entirely correct. I'm not saying THIS NAMA was a great idea, but any economist worth their salt has come out and said a NAMA needed to happen. In typical fashion this government was too slow to react and they had to get something together quickly and haphazardly.
    A NAMA needed to happen and it could have been better, but this is the one we have and there is no point in sitting around bitching and moaning about it.

    Furthermore I'm bloody sick of people with no education whatsoever in economics talking out their arses about how they know what is best for the country economically. Certainly the bunch of idiots in power have no clue what they're doing, but lets not have everyone voice their opinions on something that is moot.
    Jaysus, it's like the same bloody thread everywhere I go now. Is this thread about Metro North or about complain about NAMA - I believe that thread exits elsewhere.

    Yes, the money we have spent on NAMA could have built everything and bought us all a new car... but it didn't. End of story. Move on.

    I believe we were talking about Anglo, not NAMA.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Stonewolf wrote: »
    I believe we were talking about Anglo, not NAMA.
    oh because they're completely unrelated?

    The "payout" to Anglo is €7.7bn for €15.3bn in loans through NAMA


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,132 ✭✭✭Stonewolf


    OisinT wrote: »
    oh because they're completely unrelated?

    The "payout" to Anglo is €7.7bn for €15.3bn in loans through NAMA

    The Anglo problem is about far more than just what we're giving them through NAMA, if it was then BoI and AIB would be just as often mentioned. Anglo was bought by the state in order to pump money into it and has posted massive operating losses which have to be made up from somewhere where somewhere is money pumped into it by the state.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,419 ✭✭✭Cool Mo D


    The problem with Anglo is that no-one knows if it was systemically important or not. All the big banks in Ireland operated a cosy cartel, keeping big deposits in each other, and moving them around to make each other look good. See the scandal surrounding Anglo's balance sheet before nationalisation. There was a real risk that Anglo falling would catch AIB and BOI with their pants around their ankles, as their huge deposits in Anglo evaporated.

    Not that bailing out Anglo the way it's being done is necessarily the best, or cheapest way, but by the time Anglo was collapsing the damage of the housing bubble had taken too deep roots in our banks to easily get rid of without financial chaos, crippling debt, or both. There are no easy solutions to this, but the government should be doing a deal with bondholders to at least try and get Anglo's debt written down somewhat, since there's a reasonable chance if they don't take a deal now, they could loose their shirts later, and maybe get AIB or BOI taken over wholesale by a foreign bank, and their future debt problems with it. That would leave us with the cleanup for one big Irish bank - much more manageable, but still a lot of money.

    Nama isn't the worst of it though - at least some of that money will be got back, and a significant portion of property loans were to huge overseas markets like London and Chicago, who's property markets are actually growing at the moment. It'll never turn a profit, but I don't see why a return of 1/3 to 1/2 on Nama is unlikely.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭DWCommuter


    This thread is now doing fine without me.:D

    Keep up the economic side of things.;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The once off 12bn poured into Anglo (also agree it should have been let fail, only BoI and AIB are genuinely of systemic importance-they should have been basically nationalised very early on as Northern Rock in the UK was, and everything else let fail, BUT as Oisin points out: what's done is, sadly, done) pales into insignificance compared to the 20bn ANNUAL defecit we are currently running.

    We can take the hit on Anglo etc. but we cannot keep spending 20bn a year more than we have. That is something a 5 year old understands. Until spending comes into line with tax revenues we are headed for bankruptcy. The measures taken to reduce PS pay do not go anywhere near far enough to address the defecit. We cannot borrow to pay doctors, guards, nurses, teachers, politicians and admin staff's wages. If we have to do without some of these, then we have to do without. We were never as wealthy as the spending spree of the last few years indicated. We have overshot our actual supposed standard of living and must return to reality.

    If we can get spending under control, through efficiency derived redundancies and further paycuts, AS WELL as a reduction in social welfare payments to saner levels (196 EURO a week dole compared to 73 EURO in the UK simply doesn't compute!!! 204 Euro a week state pension! Madness.) then we can afford to BORROW for INFRASTRUCTURE. Our kids won't mind a bit of national debt once they have something to show for it, they will never forgive us if we saddle them with a load of national debt, just so we can maintain our Public Sector and social welfare recipient's over inflated salaries though.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,468 ✭✭✭BluntGuy


    OisinT wrote: »
    A NAMA needed to happen and it could have been better, but this is the one we have and there is no point in sitting around bitching and moaning about it.

    The problem with this is that NAMA is going to have a long-lasting and profound impact, and Infrastructure is one of the areas which it will. This isn't a "bitching and moaning" thread, it's a discussion thread.

    What should really happen is protests in the streets, but people have been ground down over time with the media bull they read in awful papers like the Irish Times and The Independent. Apathy is not good at a time of crisis.
    Furthermore I'm bloody sick of people with no education whatsoever in economics talking out their arses about how they know what is best for the country economically. Certainly the bunch of idiots in power have no clue what they're doing, but lets not have everyone voice their opinions on something that is moot.

    It's not moot though is it?

    Furthermore, you don't need to have an education in economics to grasp that something doesn't add up with their figures. Lenihan has repeatedly either been mistaken, or misrepresented the truth about NAMA. First we were told it would make a return, then "break even within ten years", then we were told they couldn't impose a bank levy as that would compromise the plan, then a bank levy was to be imposed etc.

    Does one have to be familiar with leverage ratios, CDOs, risk classes etc. to understand that something is wrong with this?

    Are you an economist btw, sir?
    Jaysus, it's like the same bloody thread everywhere I go now. Is this thread about Metro North or about complain about NAMA - I believe that thread exits elsewhere.

    This thread isn't here to just complain about NAMA/Anglo etc., it is to relate the fiscal policy to the actual provision of Infrastructure. I agree there's more than enough threads about NAMA as a broad subject, but the idea is to narrow it down and target the areas of Infrastructure it is going impact. If that means the thread goes into politics, so be it. As long as we don't lose sight of the fact we are primarily talking about Metro North, I'm fine with it.
    Yes, the money we have spent on NAMA could have built everything and bought us all a new car... but it didn't. End of story. Move on.

    It's hard to move on because a lot of critical infrastructure - railways, electricty grid upgrades, school building packages etc. (not to mention a job creation package) is now put at risk BECAUSE our financial capacity is being constrained. I am fully aware that NAMA is underway and can hardly be turned back at this point. I am aware that some type of NAMA-type scheme was needed to return us to the same broken economics rescue the world financial system. But soon we are going to start seeing the impact of the scheme in practice.

    Do you personally believe that MN will have a 2011 start, and why? Let's hear your prediction on it. I'm interested.


This discussion has been closed.
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