profitius' gambling blog

profitius · 04-09-2009 04:00PM #1

I've decided to start my own gambling blog. I want to see how I get on over the next year or so and I think that this is a good way of doing it.

The past year I have made a profit gambling although I did make some mistakes that I want to cut out. Everybody is welcome to debate my selections as I believe its good to questions things.

I'll post my tips and say how strongly I fancy something. I'll rate them by using stars.
* means worth a bet
** means the bet should win
*** strongly fancy to win the bet

I'll be betting on rugby, soccer and GAA mostly. The odds I post might not be the best odds available so check around if you're doing the bets.

Always remember that there are NO certainties!!!!!

profitius · 04-09-2009 04:06PM

Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** They had a good preseason and its a weakened Sale team so Leicester to win.

Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** A new coach at th Ospreys should inspire them to start well.

Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)*** Their main rivals are Real Madrid and although madrid have spent big it remains to be seen if they can gel as a team and stop leaking goals. Even so it doesn't make them better then Bara.

profitius · 04-09-2009 11:27PM

Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** Home advantage and some good player bought in and Hull were terrible for 2/3rds of last season.

Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** Home advantage. Wolves will be playing for a draw and Blackburn will be looking for a win.

Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** Man Utd were lucky against Arsenal and Spurs are playing well and are at home. Spurs to get a draw at least.

Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** Portsmouth were terrible against Man City so Bolton can keep the pressure on them.

Boxfresh · 05-09-2009 07:04AM

Are you keeping track of your profit/loss? Maybe if you start with a bank of 100 or something like that so we'll know how you're getting on.

You're a bit early with them premiership matches. They aren't on until next weekend cos of the internationals today.

TheRock · 05-09-2009 10:12AM

profitius wrote: »

Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** Home advantage and some good player bought in and Hull were terrible for 2/3rds of last season.

Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** Home advantage. Wolves will be playing for a draw and Blackburn will be looking for a win.

Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** Man Utd were lucky against Arsenal and Spurs are playing well and are at home. Spurs to get a draw at least.

Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** Portsmouth were terrible against Man City so Bolton can keep the pressure on them.

Crazy to be tipping teams for next weekend with Internationals still to happen. Lots can happen with regard to injuries.

Good luck with the blog though. Good to get some rugby tips up here.

profitius · 05-09-2009 05:34PM

Boxfresh wrote: »

Are you keeping track of your profit/loss? Maybe if you start with a bank of 100 or something like that so we'll know how you're getting on.

You're a bit early with them premiership matches. They aren't on until next weekend cos of the internationals today.

Every week or so I'll calculate it out. The amount per bet is as follows.
* 50e
** 100e
*** 400e

I'll start with €0 and if for example I loose €150 the balance will be -€150.

No I forgot about the games being on next week. I'll let them stand and decide after if I want to change them before they play. As of now I don't think I'll be changing them but we'll see.

profitius · 05-09-2009 05:37PM

TheRock wrote: »

Crazy to be tipping teams for next weekend with Internationals still to happen. Lots can happen with regard to injuries.

Good luck with the blog though. Good to get some rugby tips up here.

Yeah. I'm losing so far in the rugby but only 2 matches gone. I think I should wait a few weeks until things settle down because at the start of the season the results are more of a lottery.

profitius · 05-09-2009 05:51PM

Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** Cyprus are missing their best forward and Ireland will keep it tight which means more chance of a draw.

profitius · 09-09-2009 02:22PM

England Vs Croatia (1.62)** I think this England team under Capello are different then the teams under Sven and McLaren. Its harder to beat and I think they will also do well in the world cup next year. Croatia are tough but are missing a few players and England have a fit squad so England to win.

Warper · 09-09-2009 03:32PM

profitius wrote: »

Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** They had a good preseason and its a weakened Sale team so Leicester to win.

Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** A new coach at th Ospreys should inspire them to start well.

Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)*** Their main rivals are Real Madrid and although madrid have spent big it remains to be seen if they can gel as a team and stop leaking goals. Even so it doesn't make them better then Bara.

Totally agree with you about Barcelona. They are the best outright bet in Europe. Last year it was Inter in Serie A, this season Barca deserve to be on everyones docket. They are the best team in Europe.

Catenaccio! · 09-09-2009 04:20PM

Hmmm, don't think Barce are the greatest value at those odds. I'd be weary of Real Madrid to be honest, they could easily gel nice and quickly and that'll leave you sweating for quite a bit. I also don't think Madrid give a flying **** about conceding (imo) and just basically want to outscore the opposition (which they are more than capable of doing).

Best of luck with it though, never done a season long bet myself!

Devastator · 09-09-2009 04:34PM

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Hmmm, don't think Barce are the greatest value at those odds. I'd be weary of Real Madrid to be honest, they could easily gel nice and quickly and that'll leave you sweating for quite a bit. I also don't think Madrid give a flying **** about conceding (imo) and just basically want to outscore the opposition (which they are more than capable of doing).

Best of luck with it though, never done a season long bet myself!

I don't think Madrid have a hope in hell of winning La Liga, there defense.....well, what defense?

Its great having the attitude of we will score more, but once they concede they'll crumble. The 1st game of league season(think was against Deportivo) showed what a mid table team could do to their backline

Catenaccio! · 10-09-2009 09:24AM

Okay, let's see, they recently won La Liga in the following years:

2007 - 2008
2006 - 2007
2002 - 2003

In 07/08 their defence looked like this:

Marcelo, Pepe, Cannavaro, Ramos

In 06/07 it looked like:

Salgado, Ramos, Cannavaro, Carlos

In 02/03:

Salgado, Bravo, Campo, Carlos

And this year it might look like this:

Arbeloa, Albiol, Garay, Marcelo

Hardly a major difference considering the great Cannavaro even looked all over the place while he was in Spain.

Former Great · 10-09-2009 01:51PM

profitius wrote: »

Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** Cyprus are missing their best forward and Ireland will keep it tight which means more chance of a draw.

Just wondering about this laying business , i dont really understand it, say if i lay cyprus and i put 100 euro on it whats my return..Is this only a betfair thing..

Catenaccio! · 10-09-2009 01:56PM

It's a betting exchange 'thing'. You have the opportunity to become the bookmaker let's say. To lay Cyprus means that you are actually backing two other selections (i.e. the draw or an Ireland win). If you lay Cyprus for €100 at 3/1, then your liability is €300.

Former Great · 10-09-2009 02:18PM

Catenaccio! wrote: »

It's a betting exchange 'thing'. You have the opportunity to become the bookmaker let's say. To lay Cyprus means that you are actually backing two other selections (i.e. the draw or an Ireland win). If you lay Cyprus for €100 at 3/1, then your liability is €300.

Oh right , so u offer cyprus @4.1 on betfair and someone comes in and decides to have say a 100 on it ..But would someone else not be offering bigger than 4.1..

Catenaccio! · 10-09-2009 02:22PM

No, someone will be wanting to back at odds greater than 4.1. Not the other way around.

Devastator · 10-09-2009 04:14PM

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Okay, let's see, they recently won La Liga in the following years:

2007 - 2008
2006 - 2007
2002 - 2003

In 07/08 their defence looked like this:

Marcelo, Pepe, Cannavaro, Ramos

In 06/07 it looked like:

Salgado, Ramos, Cannavaro, Carlos

In 02/03:

Salgado, Bravo, Campo, Carlos

And this year it might look like this:

Arbeloa, Albiol, Garay, Marcelo

Hardly a major difference considering the great Cannavaro even looked all over the place while he was in Spain.

"hardly a major difference" ......... WHAT?

1 player the same from 2 years ago.....oh yeah thats the exact same. Did you forget that even though he's a shockingly bad defender Heinze never seems to be left out of the Madrid lineup. Have you also forgotten Ramos will probably be their 1st choice RB, and when he plays he often forgets he's a defender and is left stranded up in oppositions 1/2.

Catenaccio! · 10-09-2009 04:19PM

Hardly a major difference as in the quality of players is much the same. How the hell did a team with Campo and Bravo at CB win the league? Well, when you've got players like Zidane, Figo, Raul, Ronaldo et al., then it helps just a little.

Not sure why you're mentioning Ramos being bad as he's already got two titles to his name.

Devastator · 10-09-2009 04:24PM

can't ever remember Zidane, Ronaldo, Figo or Raul playing in defense

what was so bad about Bravo or Campos while in their prime?

oh yeah the quality of players is nearly identical, for example that fella Cannavaro captained a world cup winning team right? Whereas Garay & Abiol or not even 1st choice international defenders.

Ramos has 2 titles to his name....well woopiedoo! how does that make him a good defender? Djimi Traore has a champions league winners medal! :eek:

Catenaccio! · 10-09-2009 04:27PM

Wait, did you even see Cannavaro play in La Liga?

The guy was all over the place at times. And I think he's one of, if not, the best CBs in the last few years. So I'm well aware of his talent, thank you very much.

Ramos played in defences that won the league. Ramos plays this year. Geddit?

Devastator · 10-09-2009 07:02PM

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Ramos played in defences that won the league. Ramos plays this year. Geddit?

yeah, apparently he's such a good title winning defender.....you didn't even mention him as part of their defense :rolleyes:

Catenaccio! · 11-09-2009 08:33AM

I named the lineup against Deportivo, unlucky.

Devastator · 11-09-2009 05:23PM

Catenaccio! wrote: »

I named the lineup against Deportivo, unlucky.

you actually named what you think will be their defense

I'm not making any more replies on this thread, firstly because its gone completely off original topic and secondly it seems like an arguement with a 12 year old :rolleyes:

profitius · 12-09-2009 12:22PM

Celtic to win SPL (1.76)** I think they'll go to win games this season instead of trying to not loose like they did under Strachen.

Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08)*** They've a massive squad, lots of attackers, tighter at the back and can beat anybody. They'll be hard to beat and on paper are as good as Man Utd or better. Certainly better then all the rest with probably Spurs being the main rivals for this bet.

profitius · 12-09-2009 11:21PM

Birmingham Vs Aston Villa (2.26)** I'm going for Villa to win this because they've a much better team then Birmingham and they'll be up for it as its a local derby.

profitius · 16-09-2009 12:42AM

St Liege Vs Arsenal (1.58)** Arsenal should have too much class and if they're up for this they could win handy.

profitius · 18-09-2009 11:48AM

Cork Vs Kerry (EVS)** I'm backing Cork for this one. My logic is that they are playing better this year, they're stronger mentally, they hammered Tyrone with 14 men and hammered Kerry. Should have beaten Kerry twice. They also have extra motivation because Kerry have beaten them badly in Croke Park over the past few years. So if Cork play well they'll win. Theres an 'if' there and Kerry are tough but Cork were so dominant against them and Tyrone its theirs to lose.

profitius · 22-09-2009 11:59PM

After a few weeks I've decided to get a figure for how I'm doing. I'm confident of keeping the good run going so we'll see. The Cork loss being the most frustrating since I was going to avoid doing anything and I let the occasion cloud my judgement.

Roundup

Lost - Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** -100
Won - Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** 35
Won - Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** 100
Won - Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** 90
Lost - Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** -140
Won - Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** 100
Won - Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** 100
Won - England Vs Croatia (1.62)** 62
Won - Birmingham Vs Aston Villa (2.26)** 126
Won - St Liege Vs Arsenal (1.58)** 58
Lost - Cork Vs Kerry (EVS)** -100
________
330
________

Unsettled

Celtic to win SPL (1.76)**
Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08)***
Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)***

PCPhoto · 23-09-2009 12:05AM

are you actually doing these bets ...or just playing with funny money ?

profitius · 23-09-2009 01:11AM

PCPhoto wrote: »

are you actually doing these bets ...or just playing with funny money ?

I'm doing them and and will increase the amount gradually if I keep winning.

I said before that
* = €50
** = €100
*** = €400

For example most bets are 2 star bets (**) so I just gave that a value of €100 to simplify things.

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