profitius' gambling blog

profitius · 30-10-2009 8:16pm

Ospreys Vs Glasgow (2.80)** Ospreys missing about 12 players and their half backs are playing their first or second game.

profitius · 30-10-2009 11:45pm

Glasgow drew tonight (yeah even rugby matches are drawing now lol) to sum up a bad few days although I won a small bit on that match because I layed the Ospreys for most of the bet. I'm going to start laying now, try something different so I'll treat this like a new begining. I wouldn't advise anybody to follow me unless I start making a profit.

129 -600 = -471

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-471
_________

So thats

Sunderland Vs West Ham (LAY 4.4)** Sunderland are hard to beat at home and WH are not playing well.

profitius · 01-11-2009 4:41pm

Birmingham Vs Man City (LAY 4.4)** I'm laying Birmingham because they've only scored 8 goals all season and will probably play defensively.

profitius · 03-11-2009 8:03pm

Milan Vs Real Madrid (2.94)** I think this is worth a bet. Madrid might have the big names but they're very loose at the back from the games I've seen. Milan have the class to exploit that. Milan also won away and had alot of chances. Nearly 2/1 is good value. Madrid are also missing Ronaldo.

profitius · 04-11-2009 8:36pm

Lyon Vs Liverpool (LAY 3.15)** I'm laying Liverpool because they have injuries to key players and their form is terrible. Lyon don't have to win but are dangerous on the counter attack.

profitius · 07-11-2009 2:50am

Man City Vs Burnley (1.35)*** They really should beat Burnley. Burnley lose all their away games and I think Man City will score at least 2.

Chelsea Vs Man Utd (LAY 4.5)** Man Utd are playing away, not playing great lately and have a bad record against Chelsea. Chelsea are playing well, on form and has scored/conceded record at home this season of 15/1.

profitius · 07-11-2009 4:03am

England Vs Australia (3.10)* Good value. It'll be low scoring and tight I think. England will try to frustrate the Aussies and pick off points or maybe hit them on counter attacks etc.

I'll calculate the totals after the weekends action.

profitius · 13-11-2009 9:41pm

France Vs South Africa (half time) (2.45)*** France are 2 pts down but a man up for 10 min and with wind advantage and they're at home. I think they're worth a decent bet.

profitius · 13-11-2009 11:52pm

Lost -Wolves Vs Aston Villa (1.9 [draw lose half])** -45
Lost - Man City Vs Fulham (1.52)*** -400
Lost - Ospreys Vs Glasgow (2.80)** -100
Won -Sunderland Vs West Ham (LAY 4.4)** +100
Won - Birmingham Vs Man City (LAY 4.4)** +100
Lost - Milan Vs Real Madrid (2.94)** -100
Won - Lyon Vs Liverpool (LAY 3.15)** +100
Lost - Man City Vs Burnley (1.35)*** -400
Won - Chelsea Vs Man Utd (LAY 4.5)** +100
Lost - England Vs Australia (3.10)* -50
Won - France Vs South Africa (half time) (2.45)*** +580
______
-115

total previously = 129. 129 - 115 = 14

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14
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Overall I'm winning. Well done Les Blues. Man City were the big let down - twice! Man city losing a lead to Fulham and Burnely was the difference of €1148 but I'm partly to blame for backing them when they're not winning games.

All my lays won and all the games I backed there drew except for the England Australia rugby game. Its really telling me to stop backing teams and start laying them.

profitius · 14-11-2009 9:53pm

Ireland Vs Australia (1.85)*** The Aussies beat England handly enough but England were terrible. A more experianced team and at home with a full house. The Aussies are always dangerous but so are Ireland. Ireland will be disappointed if they don't beat Australia and I'm expecting them to win.

profitius · 20-11-2009 6:13pm

Liverpool Vs Man City (LAY 1.99)** Liverpool have been going bad and even though Man City have been poor too they're under less pressure and have the class to score at the other end.

Hull Vs West Ham (LAY 2.6)** Hull are at home and West Ham are not great. It could be a draw.

profitius · 21-11-2009 2:04am

Wales Vs Argentina ([+9.5pts] 2.16)** Argentina are tough enough to beat and they'll want to keep it tight.

profitius · 21-11-2009 5:00pm

Ireland Vs Fiji ([-22.5pts]2.04)** Ireland are at home and Fiji looked unorganised against Scotland.

profitius · 23-11-2009 5:55pm

Previous total = +14

Lost - Ireland Vs Australia (1.85)*** -400
Won - Liverpool Vs Man City (LAY 1.99)** +100
Won - Hull Vs West Ham (LAY 2.6)** +100
Lost - Wales Vs Argentina ([+9.5pts] 2.16)** -100
Won - Ireland Vs Fiji ([-22.5pts]2.04)** +100

_______
-200
_______

Total so far = -186

Ireland were disappointing against Australia. In the scrums and breakdown they were beaten up like never before so that was unexpected. At least I backed the draw at 34/1 just in case because I had a feeling it could be another draw.

Argentina gifted Wales a few tries at the weekend. One was a joke but these things happen.

Laying seems to be going well now because theres the usual amount of draws again.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
I'm going to change my system now for more flexability.

From now on:
* = 25
** = 100
*** = 200
**** = 400
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

profitius · 24-11-2009 8:52pm

Fiorentina Vs Lyon (LAY 2.26)** Lyon only need a draw in this game and are under no pressure. They're also a decent playing away.

Rangers Vs Stuttgart (LAY 2.98)** These teams draw alot of games. The Scottish teams are not great lately either and lack quality.

profitius · 25-11-2009 7:48pm

CSKA Moscow Vs Wolfsburg (LAY DRAW 2.24)** Its 1-1 with about 25-30 min to go. There are lots of chances being created so I think there'll be another goal.

Gavin "shels" · 25-11-2009 7:59pm

CSKA 2-1 up.

profitius · 25-11-2009 9:44pm

Fulham Vs Bolton (LAY 4.4)** Fulham are hard to beat at home and Bolton manager Gary Megson has said that theres a bit of unrest in the Bolton camp so worth a chance laying them.

Gavin shels wrote: »

CSKA 2-1 up.

Yeah it turned out well.

Laying Lyon was a mistake the other night. The impression I got from sky sports was that Lyon were not really up for it and only started to attack near the end. They were probably satisfied with qualifing.

profitius · 27-11-2009 5:00pm

Wales Vs Australia (1.97)**** The Aussies are a tough team to beat and last weeks defeat by Scotland makes it easier for me to back them because they won't want to lose again.

[I did back SA to beat Ireland but now I hear Botha is out so I'll stay out of it and enjo the match]

profitius · 28-11-2009 3:22am

Wigan Vs Sunderland (LAY 2.60)** After last weeks 9 - 0 defeat it means that all cannot be well in Wigan. They just gave up. Sunderland are on a high so I fancy Sunderland to get something out of this unless Wigan bounce back.

profitius · 28-11-2009 6:14pm

France Vs New Zealand (2.58)** I'm backing France here. Its in the south of France and they beat NZ earlier in NZ.

profitius · 29-11-2009 1:15am

Wolves Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.48)** Wolves havn't won in 7 games. Birmingham are nothing special but they're on form and have the ability to get a draw or win.

profitius · 29-11-2009 4:41pm

Barcelona Vs Real Madrid (1.84)** Barcelona tore Madrid apart last year and could have scored 10 against them. If RM don't play defensively it'll allow Barcelona the space they need to exploit RM.

profitius · 30-11-2009 12:52am

Total up till now = -186

Lost - Fiorentina Vs Lyon (LAY 2.26)** -126
Won - Rangers Vs Stuttgart (LAY 2.98)** +100
Won - CSKA Moscow Vs Wolfsburg (LAY DRAW 2.24)** +100
Won - Fulham Vs Bolton (LAY 4.4)** +100
Won - Wales Vs Australia (1.97)**** +388
Lost - Wigan Vs Sunderland (LAY 2.60)** -160
Lost - France Vs New Zealand (2.58)** -100
Won - Wolves Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.48)** +100
Won - Barcelona Vs Real Madrid (1.84)** +84

_______
+468
_______

Total so far = +282

I done alot of bets this week but there were some good bets to do. Thankfully I avoided backing Man City again. Sunderland conceded a sloppy goal to Wigan otherwise it would have been a great week but I can't complain. Looking to kick on from here now and make some money.

profitius · 04-12-2009 9:01pm

West Ham Vs Man Utd (1.48)*** I think Utd should win this. WH are conceding alot of goals and they have an injury crisis. It looks the best bet of the weekend to me. Chelsea are also putting pressure on Utd to win these sort of matches.

profitius · 05-12-2009 1:06am

Wolves Vs Bolton (LAY 2.4)** Wolves havn't won in 8 matches and although Bolton are nothing special they're still better then Wolves and a tough enough team on their day so they're worth a bet.

profitius · 05-12-2009 3:53pm

Ospreys Vs Munster (1.75)*** Munster have a full team out and will really be looking for a win. Ospreys are missing 6 or 7 players and Munsters players have been playing internationals so they'll be up to speed with things.

profitius · 05-12-2009 4:25pm

New Zealand Vs Barbarians [half time] (1.94)** The baabaas lead but got 2 break away tries. I think the AB's look a better unit and might get a few tries in the second half.

profitius · 05-12-2009 6:13pm

profitius wrote: »

Ospreys Vs Munster (1.75)*** Munster have a full team out and will really be looking for a win. Ospreys are missing 6 or 7 players and Munsters players have been playing internationals so they'll be up to speed with things.

Ospreys Vs Munster (1.75)**** I'll have a bigger bet on Munster. They'll be disappointed if they don't win this match.

profitius · 15-12-2009 4:00pm

I'm fairly pissed off after the Munster loss. ROG missing all his penalty kicks which means I'm back making a loss. Every time I make a big bet something unlikely happens which means luck isn't in my favour but I believe you must make your own luck so thats what I'm going to try and do using law of attraction techniques. After a few months of doing that I hope to 'attract' good luck and I'll start it soon.

I also notice others who make money and are doing well but always seem to not be able to get over a certain point. Thats when they get 'unlucky'.

Tottenham Vs Man City (LAY 2.39)** Man City have only lost once all season so the odds don't look too good for spurs.

Sunderland Vs Aston Villa (LAY 2.88)** Villa just beat Man Utd so confidence will be high. You never know will Villa though but I think its worth laying sunderland.

Liverpool Vs Wigan (LAY 1.35)** Liverpool are playing badly and confidence is down.

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