profitius' gambling blog

profitius

I've decided to start my own gambling blog. I want to see how I get on over the next year or so and I think that this is a good way of doing it.


The past year I have made a profit gambling although I did make some mistakes that I want to cut out. Everybody is welcome to debate my selections as I believe its good to questions things.


I'll post my tips and say how strongly I fancy something. I'll rate them by using stars.
* means worth a bet
** means the bet should win
*** strongly fancy to win the bet

I'll be betting on rugby, soccer and GAA mostly. The odds I post might not be the best odds available so check around if you're doing the bets.

Always remember that there are NO certainties!!!!!

profitius

Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** They had a good preseason and its a weakened Sale team so Leicester to win.

Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** A new coach at th Ospreys should inspire them to start well.

Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)*** Their main rivals are Real Madrid and although madrid have spent big it remains to be seen if they can gel as a team and stop leaking goals. Even so it doesn't make them better then Bara.

profitius

Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** Home advantage and some good player bought in and Hull were terrible for 2/3rds of last season.

Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** Home advantage. Wolves will be playing for a draw and Blackburn will be looking for a win.

Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** Man Utd were lucky against Arsenal and Spurs are playing well and are at home. Spurs to get a draw at least.

Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** Portsmouth were terrible against Man City so Bolton can keep the pressure on them.

Boxfresh

Are you keeping track of your profit/loss? Maybe if you start with a bank of 100 or something like that so we'll know how you're getting on.

You're a bit early with them premiership matches. They aren't on until next weekend cos of the internationals today.

TheRock

profitius wrote: »

Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** Home advantage and some good player bought in and Hull were terrible for 2/3rds of last season.

Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** Home advantage. Wolves will be playing for a draw and Blackburn will be looking for a win.

Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** Man Utd were lucky against Arsenal and Spurs are playing well and are at home. Spurs to get a draw at least.

Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** Portsmouth were terrible against Man City so Bolton can keep the pressure on them.

Crazy to be tipping teams for next weekend with Internationals still to happen. Lots can happen with regard to injuries.

Good luck with the blog though. Good to get some rugby tips up here.

profitius

Boxfresh wrote: »

Are you keeping track of your profit/loss? Maybe if you start with a bank of 100 or something like that so we'll know how you're getting on.

You're a bit early with them premiership matches. They aren't on until next weekend cos of the internationals today.

Every week or so I'll calculate it out. The amount per bet is as follows.
* 50e
** 100e
*** 400e

I'll start with €0 and if for example I loose €150 the balance will be -€150.

No I forgot about the games being on next week. I'll let them stand and decide after if I want to change them before they play. As of now I don't think I'll be changing them but we'll see.

profitius

TheRock wrote: »

Crazy to be tipping teams for next weekend with Internationals still to happen. Lots can happen with regard to injuries.

Good luck with the blog though. Good to get some rugby tips up here.

Yeah. I'm losing so far in the rugby but only 2 matches gone. I think I should wait a few weeks until things settle down because at the start of the season the results are more of a lottery.

profitius

Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** Cyprus are missing their best forward and Ireland will keep it tight which means more chance of a draw.

profitius

England Vs Croatia (1.62)** I think this England team under Capello are different then the teams under Sven and McLaren. Its harder to beat and I think they will also do well in the world cup next year. Croatia are tough but are missing a few players and England have a fit squad so England to win.

Warper

profitius wrote: »

Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** They had a good preseason and its a weakened Sale team so Leicester to win.

Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** A new coach at th Ospreys should inspire them to start well.

Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)*** Their main rivals are Real Madrid and although madrid have spent big it remains to be seen if they can gel as a team and stop leaking goals. Even so it doesn't make them better then Bara.

Totally agree with you about Barcelona. They are the best outright bet in Europe. Last year it was Inter in Serie A, this season Barca deserve to be on everyones docket. They are the best team in Europe.

Catenaccio!

Hmmm, don't think Barce are the greatest value at those odds. I'd be weary of Real Madrid to be honest, they could easily gel nice and quickly and that'll leave you sweating for quite a bit. I also don't think Madrid give a flying **** about conceding (imo) and just basically want to outscore the opposition (which they are more than capable of doing).

Best of luck with it though, never done a season long bet myself!

Devastator

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Hmmm, don't think Barce are the greatest value at those odds. I'd be weary of Real Madrid to be honest, they could easily gel nice and quickly and that'll leave you sweating for quite a bit. I also don't think Madrid give a flying **** about conceding (imo) and just basically want to outscore the opposition (which they are more than capable of doing).

Best of luck with it though, never done a season long bet myself!

I don't think Madrid have a hope in hell of winning La Liga, there defense.....well, what defense?

Its great having the attitude of we will score more, but once they concede they'll crumble. The 1st game of league season(think was against Deportivo) showed what a mid table team could do to their backline

Catenaccio!

Okay, let's see, they recently won La Liga in the following years:

2007 - 2008
2006 - 2007
2002 - 2003

In 07/08 their defence looked like this:

Marcelo, Pepe, Cannavaro, Ramos

In 06/07 it looked like:

Salgado, Ramos, Cannavaro, Carlos

In 02/03:

Salgado, Bravo, Campo, Carlos

And this year it might look like this:

Arbeloa, Albiol, Garay, Marcelo


Hardly a major difference considering the great Cannavaro even looked all over the place while he was in Spain.

Former Great

profitius wrote: »

Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** Cyprus are missing their best forward and Ireland will keep it tight which means more chance of a draw.

Just wondering about this laying business , i dont really understand it, say if i lay cyprus and i put 100 euro on it whats my return..Is this only a betfair thing..

Catenaccio!

It's a betting exchange 'thing'. You have the opportunity to become the bookmaker let's say. To lay Cyprus means that you are actually backing two other selections (i.e. the draw or an Ireland win). If you lay Cyprus for €100 at 3/1, then your liability is €300.

Former Great

Catenaccio! wrote: »

It's a betting exchange 'thing'. You have the opportunity to become the bookmaker let's say. To lay Cyprus means that you are actually backing two other selections (i.e. the draw or an Ireland win). If you lay Cyprus for €100 at 3/1, then your liability is €300.

Oh right , so u offer cyprus @4.1 on betfair and someone comes in and decides to have say a 100 on it ..But would someone else not be offering bigger than 4.1..

Catenaccio!

No, someone will be wanting to back at odds greater than 4.1. Not the other way around.

Devastator

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Okay, let's see, they recently won La Liga in the following years:

2007 - 2008
2006 - 2007
2002 - 2003

In 07/08 their defence looked like this:

Marcelo, Pepe, Cannavaro, Ramos

In 06/07 it looked like:

Salgado, Ramos, Cannavaro, Carlos

In 02/03:

Salgado, Bravo, Campo, Carlos

And this year it might look like this:

Arbeloa, Albiol, Garay, Marcelo


Hardly a major difference considering the great Cannavaro even looked all over the place while he was in Spain.

"hardly a major difference" ......... WHAT?


1 player the same from 2 years ago.....oh yeah thats the exact same. Did you forget that even though he's a shockingly bad defender Heinze never seems to be left out of the Madrid lineup. Have you also forgotten Ramos will probably be their 1st choice RB, and when he plays he often forgets he's a defender and is left stranded up in oppositions 1/2.

Catenaccio!

Hardly a major difference as in the quality of players is much the same. How the hell did a team with Campo and Bravo at CB win the league? Well, when you've got players like Zidane, Figo, Raul, Ronaldo et al., then it helps just a little.

Not sure why you're mentioning Ramos being bad as he's already got two titles to his name.

Devastator

can't ever remember Zidane, Ronaldo, Figo or Raul playing in defense


what was so bad about Bravo or Campos while in their prime?

oh yeah the quality of players is nearly identical, for example that fella Cannavaro captained a world cup winning team right? Whereas Garay & Abiol or not even 1st choice international defenders.

Ramos has 2 titles to his name....well woopiedoo! how does that make him a good defender? Djimi Traore has a champions league winners medal! :eek:

Catenaccio!

Wait, did you even see Cannavaro play in La Liga? The guy was all over the place at times. And I think he's one of, if not, the best CBs in the last few years. So I'm well aware of his talent, thank you very much.

Ramos played in defences that won the league. Ramos plays this year. Geddit?

Devastator

Catenaccio! wrote: »

Ramos played in defences that won the league. Ramos plays this year. Geddit?

yeah, apparently he's such a good title winning defender.....you didn't even mention him as part of their defense :rolleyes:

Catenaccio!

I named the lineup against Deportivo, unlucky.

Devastator

Catenaccio! wrote: »

I named the lineup against Deportivo, unlucky.

you actually named what you think will be their defense



I'm not making any more replies on this thread, firstly because its gone completely off original topic and secondly it seems like an arguement with a 12 year old :rolleyes:

profitius

Celtic to win SPL (1.76)** I think they'll go to win games this season instead of trying to not loose like they did under Strachen.

Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08)*** They've a massive squad, lots of attackers, tighter at the back and can beat anybody. They'll be hard to beat and on paper are as good as Man Utd or better. Certainly better then all the rest with probably Spurs being the main rivals for this bet.

profitius

Birmingham Vs Aston Villa (2.26)** I'm going for Villa to win this because they've a much better team then Birmingham and they'll be up for it as its a local derby.

profitius

St Liege Vs Arsenal (1.58)** Arsenal should have too much class and if they're up for this they could win handy.

profitius

Cork Vs Kerry (EVS)** I'm backing Cork for this one. My logic is that they are playing better this year, they're stronger mentally, they hammered Tyrone with 14 men and hammered Kerry. Should have beaten Kerry twice. They also have extra motivation because Kerry have beaten them badly in Croke Park over the past few years. So if Cork play well they'll win. Theres an 'if' there and Kerry are tough but Cork were so dominant against them and Tyrone its theirs to lose.

profitius

After a few weeks I've decided to get a figure for how I'm doing. I'm confident of keeping the good run going so we'll see. The Cork loss being the most frustrating since I was going to avoid doing anything and I let the occasion cloud my judgement.

Roundup

Lost - Sale VS Leicester Tigers. (1.60)** -100
Won - Connacht Vs Ospreys (1.35)** 35
Won - Sunderland Vs Hull (about EVS)** 100
Won - Blackburn Vs Wolves (1.9)** 90
Lost - Tottenham Vs Man Utd (LAY 2.40)** -140
Won - Portsmouth Vs Bolton (LAY 2.46)** 100
Won - Cyprus Vs Rep Ireland (LAY 4.1)** 100
Won - England Vs Croatia (1.62)** 62
Won - Birmingham Vs Aston Villa (2.26)** 126
Won - St Liege Vs Arsenal (1.58)** 58
Lost - Cork Vs Kerry (EVS)** -100
________
330
________

Unsettled

---

Celtic to win SPL (1.76)**
Man City to finish highest without the top 4 (2.08)***
Barcelona to win la liga.(10/11)***

---

PCPhoto

are you actually doing these bets ...or just playing with funny money ?

profitius

PCPhoto wrote: »

are you actually doing these bets ...or just playing with funny money ?

I'm doing them and and will increase the amount gradually if I keep winning.

I said before that
* = €50
** = €100
*** = €400

For example most bets are 2 star bets (**) so I just gave that a value of €100 to simplify things.

profitius

Connacht Vs Ulster (1.79)** Confident Ulster will see off Connacht in this one. They won't take Connacht lightly.

profitius

Glasgow Vs Ospreys (2.02)** Glasgow rearly loose at home and the Ospreys are going through a bad patch. It remains to be seen how the Ospreys react but home advantage to swing it for Glasgow.

profitius

London Irish Vs Wasps (1.68)** Two form teams but I'll go for the home team because they're scoring alot of points and were better then Wasps last season.

Blackburn Vs Aston Villa (LAY 3.30)** I think Villa are much better and on form and I don't think they'll lose. Blackburn are tough enough but if Villa turn up and perform they'll get a result.

profitius

Pi**ed off after Villa's defeat yesterday. Goal up, man up, conceding that scrappy first goal and then the referee giving Blackburn that penalty. A disgrace. To make things worse it was in the last minute... oh well. :rolleyes: Added to that Glasgow being 10pts up on the Ospreys and looking good.. very frustrating.


Sunderland Vs Wolves (1.81)** Sunderland have improved this year under Bruce and hes brought in some quality players. I'm backing them simply on the basis that promoted teams struggle to get results away from home. Therefore Sunderland win.

scruff321

Mad game Profitius i backed Sunderland too, happy days.:)

profitius

Debrecen Vs Lyon (1.5)** I'd be surprised if Lyon didn't win this. They're much the better team and they're on form.

Unirea Urziceni Vs Stuttgart (EVS)* Stuttgart are on form after a shaky start to the season. I don't know much about the Romanian side but they can't be great. So its worth a small bet on Stuttgart I think.

profitius

scruff321 wrote: »

Mad game Profitius i backed Sunderland too, happy days.:)

They won well in the end although got a penalty that shouldn't have been. Its nice not having to sweat near the end of a match! lol

profitius

Stuttgart were very sloppy with the goal they conceded. German soccer must not be that good at the moment. I'll keep that in mind.

Apoel Nicosia Vs Chelsea (1.36)*** I think this is worth a big bet. The Cypriot team have a few injury concerns and really its just a matter of Chelsea being mentally prepared. Thats basically what you're betting on here. With John Terry playing I'm sure they'll have the right attitude going into the match and they will want to bounce back from the defeat at Wigan.

scruff321

Profitius keep the posts coming mate, i like seeing what your doin first before i place bets

profitius

scruff321 wrote: »

Profitius keep the posts coming mate, i like seeing what your doin first before i place bets

I'll do my best.


Bate Borisov Vs Everton (LAY 1.69)** Bate Borisov are on form and drew 2-2 at home to Juve in last years champions league. Everton might not want to be there and are resting players. I don't see the value in backing Everton so its worth taking the chance to lay them at that short price IMO.

profitius

Sale Vs London Irish (1.59)** Sale are at home but they havn't had a good start to the season and London Irish have won 3 in a row. Their points difference is +87 and sales is -16 at this early stage of the season.

profitius

Burnley Vs Birmingham (LAY 2.3)* Burnley have a few injuries. They've won 3 from 3 games at home but I think with the injuries and with the season underway they'll find things tougher.


Leinster Vs Munster (LAY 1.85)** Munster will be the hungrier side for a win. They've a more dangerous backline and I think if they play it smart they'll win. It could come down to kicks too and be a tight game which is why I layed Leinster instead of backing Munster.

profitius

Hull Vs Wigan (LAY 3.2)* Hull are a poor team and struggle in the premiership. I think Wigans win over Chelsea will give them a boost and they can beat Hull.

acalmenvoy

Could someone explain 'Lay' to me...

Gerry81

acalmenvoy wrote: »

Could someone explain 'Lay' to me...

you're betting against a team winning.

basically if you lay a team on betfair you are the bookie, so you lay a team for 5euro at say 4.0, if the team loses you win 5euro(you have accepted somebody elses 5euro win bet and thus you being the bookie if the team loses you keep the stake) but if the team wins you must pay out on the bet 20euro

profitius

Theres also the asian handicap method of gambling which gives you more options like betting without the draw or losing half your money if its a draw.

acalmenvoy

Gerry81 wrote: »

you're betting against a team winning.

basically if you lay a team on betfair you are the bookie, so you lay a team for 5euro at say 4.0, if the team loses you win 5euro(you have accepted somebody elses 5euro win bet and thus you being the bookie if the team loses you keep the stake) but if the team wins you must pay out on the bet 20euro

So your stakeing 20 to win 5 ?

Gerry81

you don't actually stake anything, as you are the bookie you are accepting a 5euro bet. but just like a bookie if the team wins you must pay out at the odds you accepted the bet at so you are risking 20

profitius

acalmenvoy wrote: »

So your stakeing 20 to win 5 ?

If you put €10 on a team at 3/1 you'll win €30 if the team wins or lose the €10.

If you lay a team for €10 at 3/1 you'll win €10 if the team does not win (if they lose or draw) or you'll lose €30 if they do win. Thats how bookmakers do things.

So basically you have the benefit of the draw but the prices are bigger

profitius

I learnt alot of lesson after last week. A real loss of disapline although I'm not too upset over the Munster defeat because there was reasons why I fancied them. The Burnley and Hull Lays were just done because I wanted to have a bet. But thats partly why I'm keeping a betting blog.

I'm also going to change the system a bit for more flexability.


Ulster Vs Bath (1.94)** Ulster are playing good stuff and confidence is high. If they can take their oppertunities then they've a great chance to win.