Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

solice · 06-07-2009 2:00pm

professore wrote: »

Only if we reduce the price of everything else to match.

Hasnt deflation done that already...

asdasd · 06-07-2009 2:02pm

The main cause of inflation in the boom was that the country was awash with credit and therefore money. This attracted immigrants. Now there is no credit, therefore less money, therefore less immigrants, hence deflation.

go back and read what I said about how there could be a different trajectory of money with more people paid the same, compared to less people earning more.

if I get the gist of what you are saying, positive correlation does not necessarily prove anything but negative correlation does ????

I should have said, lack of correlation, rather than negative correlation. Laco of correlation certainly precludes causation.

If a survey which assumes that video games causes violence finds no correlation between video games and violence then we dont even look for cause. If we find a correlation then we look for cause ( it could be the kind of kid attracted to certain games).

I think you kinda know this, and probably what I meant as well.

ixtlan · 06-07-2009 2:21pm

On lack of control of interest rates due to membership of the Euro... it's certainly true that we would have been better off if we had been able to raise interest rates. However politicians would not have done this. It would have been done by an independent, undemocratic, appointed central bank, as it is in other countries. Governments cannot be trusted to make such decisions, because they always would keep low interest rates if they could. The problem is that without the crutch of being able to point to someone else (central bank) politicians need to have the courage to take unpopular decisions when times are good, and there were many decisions that could have been taken and were not. Those arguing that the Euro was bad for us may be right in a way, but only because our politicans were so weak. It's ironic that they are in effect advocating taking power away from our government, to an unelected central bank while complaining about an undemocratic EU!

Likewise, immigrants came here to fill a hole in the labour market. There were jobs available... and they took them. To answer the previous poster who asked why 300 of 380 jobs in a factory were taken by Brazilians, surely the poster is being rather disengenuous. They know exactly why this happened. The Irish were able to find better jobs at better pay and didn't want to work in a meat factory, creating a situation where visas had to to be issued to keep the factory alive. Without the Brazilians the factory might have had to close and we might have had to shut down the meat industry. I exaggerate somewhat but you get the idea. Trying to restrict immigration in a growing economy suggests that of the myriad of things we could do to manage it, we are so stupid as a nation that creating a labour shortage was the only solution. You never want a labour shortage.

Ix

Zuiderzee · 07-07-2009 6:26am

djpbarry wrote: »

Which is meaningless, because I’m still based in Ireland and, as such, am subject to Irish (and EU) employment law.

So, to summarise, as long as I obey the law, then nobody is being exploited? Because that was pretty much the point I was trying to make.

DJ, the ships run between Ireland and the UK. They are owned in Ireland, which is also the country that economicaly benefits from them.

However, after firing the Irish workers on board, other citizens from a poor EU country were bought in.
They were to be paid less than Irish minimum wage.
All of this was perfectly legal.

In Sweden, on a government project, other citizens from a poor EU country were bought in.
In Scandinavia, with 80% union membership, their concept of minimum wage is different to ours, its something the unions work out with employers.
The Baltic workers were far cheaper than the swedes could ever be.

Basicaly we are being turned into commodities, and people like Lenihan allowed that to happen, and are now backpedaling madly.

He should do his patriotic duty, step down and let someone more capable take over his position.

djpbarry · 07-07-2009 10:14am

Zuiderzee wrote: »

DJ, the ships run between Ireland and the UK. They are owned in Ireland, which is also the country that economicaly benefits from them.

Where are the contractors based?

I can’t imagine too many people in this country are complaining about Irish contractors working abroad.

Zuiderzee wrote: »

However, after firing the Irish workers on board, other citizens from a poor EU country were bought in.

I presume by “poor” you mean “poorer”? Do I have to point out once again that the dispute was settled between the employers and the trade unions? A legally binding agreement was reached between the two parties at the LRC.

free to prosper · 08-07-2009 11:38pm

FF and Labour told you to vote Yes to Treaty of Nice
They all told you Nice would not mean mass immigration and job displacement in Ireland.

The people voted Yes to Nice II and we got 500,000 economic migrants from Eastern Europe in Ireland since 2004.

These eurofanatics lied through their teeth and conned the people about effects of Nice.
The EUrofanatics will do the same for Lisbon.

The Treaty of Lisbon will copperfasten the Laval judgements by the ECJ and undermine the rights of national workers.

Both economic moves from EU integrists inclused the EUro, mass immigration and Laval judgement.

Below are some of lies Yes side told about effect of Nice Treaty -

We now suffer the consequences - and the unemployment.

Quotes on East European immigration post Treaty of Nice.

" There is no reason to believe...... that large numbers of workers will
wish to come"
[ Dick Roche I.T. Letters 12/7/2002 ]

"Mr. XXXX also repeats the line propagated by the No to Nice campaign that
only four countries are to permit immigration after enlargement. This
statement grossly misrepresents the position of the other member states."
[ Dick Roche I.T. Letters Aug/Sept. 2002. ]

" Ireland will be in precisely the same position as all other member states
on the question of free movement following any enlargement of the
Community."
[ Dick Roche - as reported in I.T. xx/09/2002

" It is the view of the Irish government and a number of other governments
that this idea that there is going to be a huge influx of immigrants is just
not supported. The evidence is just not there for it. They are not going to
flood to the west. The same rules are going to apply in all 15 states. There
is no evidence to suggest that the people of the Czech Republic or Poland
are less anxious to stay in their home as (sic) we are.
[ Dick Roche transcript of interview with The Irish Catholic, Govt.
Buildings 19/9/2002. ]

" It is a deliberate misrepresentation to suggest that tens of thousands
will suddenly descend en masse on Ireland." [ P. De Rossa I.T. Letters
20/8/2002 ]

" The expected trickle of immigration to Ireland will on balance benefit the
Irish economy."
[ P. De Rossa I.T. Letters 20/8/2002

" I estimate that fewer than 2,000 [ two thousand] will choose our distant
shores each year."
[ P. De Rossa I.T. Letters 20/8/2002 ]

" There is no evidence there would be a problem with free movement of
workers on accession." [ Bertie Ahern Dail Eireann 10/9/2002 ]

"Efforts have been made to foment fears that migrants from the new member
states could flock to Ireland. This is not only unpleasant but plainly
wrong."
[ Brian Cowan Sunday Business Post 7/7/2002 ]

" Ireland is already benefiting from the skills and energy of workers from
the applicant states, about 7,000 [ seven thousand] of whom received work
permits last year. There is no basis whatever for expecting a huge upsurge
in these numbers."
[ Brian Cowan Sunday Business Post 7/7/2002 ]

" The second myth is that the Nice Treaty will mean mass immigration from
the new EU member countries in Eastern Europe. This is probably the most
odious of the myths propagated by some in the "No" campaign."
[ Willie O'Dea Sunday Independent Summer 2002]

dresden8 · 08-07-2009 11:43pm

free to prosper wrote: »

FF and Labour told you to vote Yes to Treaty of Nice
They all told you Nice would not mean mass immigration and job displacement in Ireland.

The people voted Yes to Nice II and we got 500,000 economic migrants from Eastern Europe in Ireland since 2004.

These eurofanatics lied through their teeth and conned the people about effects of Nice.
The EUrofanatics will do the same for Lisbon.

The Treaty of Lisbon will copperfasten the Laval judgements by the ECJ and undermine the rights of national workers.

Both economic moves from EU integrists inclused the EUro, mass immigration and Laval judgement.

Below are some of lies Yes side told about effect of Nice Treaty -

We now suffer the consequences - and the unemployment.

No, you didn't understand those statements because you didn't take the time to study them properly. Or something.

K-9 · 09-07-2009 12:03am

dresden8 wrote: »

No, you didn't understand those statements because you didn't take the time to study them properly. Or something.

FF fecked up. There's a surprise.

I think most of those politicians believed their quotes in 02, which remember was post 9/11 and remember our economy was suffering then too.

What happened was the construction boom took off and guess what they needed to fuel it?

Again, Immigration was a symtom of the construction bubble and Govt. policy, not the EU.

No doubt the above will be ignored and the EU will be blamed, not the Govt.

View · 09-07-2009 12:57am

free to prosper wrote: »

FF and Labour told you to vote Yes to Treaty of Nice
They all told you Nice would not mean mass immigration and job displacement in Ireland.

The Freedom of Movement principles dates from the original EU (then EC) treaties in the 1950s. It wasn't something new introduced in Nice.

Your position is a bit like saying: "We voted Yes to Nice, the weather is bad - ergo, the Yes to Nice caused the bad weather".

free to prosper wrote: »

The Treaty of Lisbon will copperfasten the Laval judgements by the ECJ and undermine the rights of national workers.

The Laval judgement was made on the basis of the existing EU Treaties - i.e. the post-Nice ones. Voting No to Lisbon in the first referendum didn't cause the post-Nice EU Treaties to disappear. They are just as "copperfastened" now as they were then.

thebman · 09-07-2009 3:49am

Why do people insist on blaming the EU for Irish policy?

Is it because they keep voting FF and want to feel better about themselves? Or do they have another motive?

Nobody has shown how it was the EU that caused immigration. The government basically enocouraged it in every way. Seems insane to blame the EU for FF policy.

djpbarry · 09-07-2009 10:00am

free to prosper wrote: »

The people voted Yes to Nice II and we got 500,000 economic migrants from Eastern Europe in Ireland since 2004.

That figure seems to be climbing inexorably upwards. It won’t be long before it’s claimed that 90% of our population is originally from Poznan.

free to prosper · 09-07-2009 5:13pm

A bit of food for thought in light of FF lies about effect of Nice Treaty on population movement:

CSO figures show foreign nationals filling 90% of new jobs in 2007

NINE OUT OF every 10 jobs added to the Irish workforce over 2007 have been filled by non-Irish nationals.

Irish Times Fri 06 Jun 2008

Of all foreign nationals in Ireland at the moment, one in five are on the dole.

ALMOST one in five people claiming the dole is a foreign national, according to figures released yesterday.

And Dublin's commuter belt has seen the biggest increase in numbers signing on, with a 64pc increase in the live register in September compared with the same month last year.

Foreign nationals accounted for 17.2pc of those claiming unemployment payouts last month, compared with 13.4pc for the same period last year.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said 79,565 extra people signed on over the last 12 months, the largest yearly hike in more than four decades.

Irish Independent Ciaran Byrne
Saturday October 04 2008

PopeBuckfastXVI · 09-07-2009 5:14pm

free to prosper wrote: »

A bit of food for thought in light of FF lies about effect of Nice Treaty on population movement:

CSO figures show foreign nationals filling 90% of new jobs in past year

NINE OUT OF every 10 jobs added to the Irish workforce over the past year have been filled by non-Irish nationals.

Irish Times Fri 06 Jun 2008

Yes if today was the 6th of June 2008, except it's not. It's July 2009, a full year later.

Therefore your claim about 90% of jobs 'in the past year' is bullsh*t.

K-9 · 09-07-2009 5:16pm

free to prosper wrote: »

A bit of food for thought in light of FF lies about effect of Nice Treaty on population movement:

CSO figures show foreign nationals filling 90% of new jobs in past year

NINE OUT OF every 10 jobs added to the Irish workforce over the past year have been filled by non-Irish nationals.

Irish Times Fri 06 Jun 2008

You mean the year before last?

Foreign Nationals are losing jobs at a higher rate than Irish people.

BlitzKrieg · 09-07-2009 5:17pm

Rise in both Irish nationals and non-Irish nationals on
Live Register in June
In June 2009 there were 337,647 Irish nationals and 80,945 non-Irish nationals on
the Live Register. This represents a monthly increase of 19,853 (+6.2%) in Irish
nationals and 1,868 (+2.4%) in non-Irish nationals. See table 4 and graph opposite.
In the year to June 2009 the number of Irish nationals on the Live Register
increased by 152,704, while the corresponding annual increase for non-Irish
nationals was 45,077.
Among non-Irish nationals the largest number on the Live Register were nationals
from the EU Accession states (44,566) while the smallest number were from the
EU15 states outside of Ireland and the UK ( 4,528).
Non-Irish nationals represented 19.3% of all persons on the Live Register in June
2009. Estimates from the Quarterly National Household Survey for January to
March 2009 show that non-Irish nationals represented an estimated 15.6% of all
persons in the labour force aged between 17 and 65 years (the relevant age range
for the Live Register).

from http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lregeo.pdf

and

Quarter 4 2008
Number of non-Irish nationals in the labour force declines
Broad indicative estimates of the labour force status of non-Irish nationals are
presented in the annex. There were an estimated 476,100 non-Irish nationals aged
15 years and over in the State in the fourth quarter of 2008. Of these 349,300 were
in the labour force, a decrease of 5,400 in the year to Q4 2008. An increase of
49,700 had been recorded in the year to Q4 2007. See table A1 in the annex .
According to ILO criteria, 316,000 non-Irish nationals were in employment, a
decrease of 18,700 over the year. A further 33,300 were unemployed, an increase
of 13,300 in the year to Q4 2008. Nationals of the EU accession states showed a
decline in employment of 16,800 and an increase in unemployment of 7,500 over
the year. The unemployment rate for non-Irish nationals was 9.5% compared with
an unemployment rate of 7.3% for Irish nationals. See table A1 in the annex and
graph opposite.
In the fourth quarter of 2008 non-Irish nationals accounted for over 15% of all
persons aged 15 and over in employment. Over 34% of workers in Hotels and
restaurants, 18.8% in Other production industries and 16.7% in Wholesale and
retail trade sectors were non-Irish nationals. The largest decreases in employment
for non-Irish nationals occurred in the Construction (-10,100), Hotels and
restaurants (-7,400) and Wholesale and retail trade (-5,100) sectors. See table A2
in the annex.

from: http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/2008/qnhs_q42008.pdf

free to prosper · 09-07-2009 5:24pm

Thank you Blitzkrieg, you beat me to it. You're quick on the draw with the exact same info post I was going to put up.

A little bit more:

Live Register increases across all regions in June
The unadjusted Live Register increased to 418,592 in June from 396,871 in May, a monthly increase of 21,721 (+5.5%). This increase was reflected in all regions, with the largest percentage increase in the West region (+6.7%). The smallest percentage increase was in the Midland region (+4.3%).

In the year to June 2009 the unadjusted Live Register increased by 197,781
(+89.6%). All regions showed annual increases with the largest percentage
increase in the Mid-East region (+108.6%). The South-East region had the
smallest percentage increase (+77.1%).

cso

BlitzKrieg · 09-07-2009 5:27pm

but it shows a decline from last year...

djpbarry · 09-07-2009 5:29pm

free to prosper wrote: »

CSO figures show foreign nationals filling 90% of new jobs in past year
…
Of all foreign nationals in Ireland at the moment, one in five are on the dole.

As has already been pointed out, you’re info is a tad out of date, but anyways…

You’re complaining about foreigners taking up employment while simultaneously complaining about foreigners claiming welfare payments. Hmmm…… whatever shall we do with them?!?

BlitzKrieg · 09-07-2009 5:35pm

free to prosper wrote: »

Live Register increases across all regions in June
The unadjusted Live Register increased to 418,592 in June from 396,871 in May, a monthly increase of 21,721 (+5.5%). This increase was reflected in all regions, with the largest percentage increase in the West region (+6.7%). The smallest percentage increase was in the Midland region (+4.3%).

In the year to June 2009 the unadjusted Live Register increased by 197,781
(+89.6%). All regions showed annual increases with the largest percentage
increase in the Mid-East region (+108.6%). The South-East region had the
smallest percentage increase (+77.1%).

cso

but thats both national and non national. thats good news overall.

they specify that the increase in national emplyment is higher then non nationals

This represents a monthly increase of 19,853 (+6.2%) in Irish
nationals and 1,868 (+2.4%) in non-Irish nationals

free to prosper · 09-07-2009 5:35pm

Lets see, almost half a million workers have come from Eastern Europe post 2004.

Today there are over 400,000 people on the live register.

This includes almost 20 per cent on the dole who are from NAS.

Many Irish people have lost their jobs because of job displacement - see Irish Ferries dispute.

FF and Labour politico said Nice Treaty would not effect population movements in order to get Yes vote for Nice.

Yesmen politicians lied lied lied but it is ordinary Irish people who carry the financial or job loss.

K-9 · 09-07-2009 5:41pm

free to prosper wrote: »

Yesmen politicians lied lied lied but it is ordinary Irish people who carry the financial or job loss.

OK, do you have proof that they knowingly lied?

djpbarry · 09-07-2009 5:41pm

free to prosper wrote: »

Lets see, almost half a million workers have come from Eastern Europe post 2004.

Incorrect.

free to prosper wrote: »

This includes almost 20 per cent on the dole who are from NAS.

What’s NAS? New Accession States? Because that would make you wrong again.

free to prosper wrote: »

Many Irish people have lost their jobs because of job displacement - see Irish Ferries dispute.

The Irish Ferries dispute (which seems to have become an incredibly popular topic of discussion all of a sudden) resulted from Irish Ferries outsourcing the staffing of their vessel(s) to a foreign contractor. I’m not sure what that has to do with immigration?

O'Morris · 09-07-2009 5:51pm

djpbarry wrote:

Incorrect.

How do you know it's incorrect?

djpbarry · 09-07-2009 5:57pm

O'Morris wrote: »

How do you know it's incorrect?

If you have evidence that suggests it's an accurate statement, then by all means, let's see it.

BlitzKrieg · 09-07-2009 6:01pm

because there are

There were an estimated 476,100 non-Irish nationals aged
15 years and over in the State in the fourth quarter of 2008.

If there's not even half a million of all the non nationals how can there be almost half a million of only eastern europeans?

djpbarry · 09-07-2009 6:06pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

If there's not even half a million of all the non nationals how can there be almost half a million of only eastern europeans?

I suppose it' still possible that a large number could have come and gone in the last few years, but I'd be very surprised if the total from the new accession states was almost 500,000. Although, I suppose that depends on how one defines "almost".

I'm not sure what the relevance is anyway.

PopeBuckfastXVI · 09-07-2009 6:07pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

because there are

If there's not even half a million of all the non nationals how can there be almost half a million of only eastern europeans?

But... but... but... but but but but butbutbutbutbutbut...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uORAyORWRAA

free to prosper · 09-07-2009 6:17pm

free to prosper wrote: »

CSO figures show foreign nationals filling 90% of new jobs in 2007

NINE OUT OF every 10 jobs added to the Irish workforce over 2007 have been filled by non-Irish nationals.

Irish Times Fri 06 Jun 2008

It was updated some time ago. There was always a reference link there as well.

I said that FF and Labour politicos lied about effect of Treaty of Nice.
If you can prove they did not lie to the people - evidence (events dear boy events) shows otherwise.

It is quite clear Nice facilitated mass immigration which in turn caused job displacement. Not good for Irish workers - many of whom are now unemployed.

BlitzKrieg · 09-07-2009 6:21pm

djpbarry wrote: »

I suppose it' still possible that a large number could have come and gone in the last few years, but I'd be very surprised if the total from the new accession states was almost 500,000. Although, I suppose that depends on how one defines "almost".

I'm not sure what the relevance is anyway.

well my quote is from CSO figures for the last quarter 2008 and was released in feburary this year. The figure according to the june 2009 live register says the number working are only 80,945 actually working in regulated work (live register doesnt give the total number of non nationals in ireland, you'll need to wait until the next Quarterly from CSO.)

In June 2009 there were 337,647 Irish nationals and 80,945 non-Irish nationals on
the Live Register.

so

almost half a million workers have come from Eastern Europe post 2004

is as you said incorrect.

FutureTaoiseach · 09-07-2009 6:27pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

because there are

If there's not even half a million of all the non nationals how can there be almost half a million of only eastern europeans?

There are around 500,000 foreign nationals if you bear in mind two variables: Firstly, the National Quarterly Household Survey (on CSO website) says that there are around 460,000 foreign-nationals over 15 in the labour-force (including unemployed). Add that to approximately 44,000 we know are the primary-school system and you reach at least 500,000 and likely more.

Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

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