Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

Its all in the mix.
We had lost control of our interest rates.
Our low tax economy was going well - well Germany was going badly

The ECB rates were set to suit Germany etc.
The too low interest rates overheated our economy.

On top of that we had massive immigration after Nice II.
The effects of which the govt lied to the people about.

On top of that again we had property incentives and lack of bank regulation.

We had boom and bust.

So the EUro is not a saviour - it is part of the problem. It got us into this mess- as did mass immigration.

On the other matter - Norway etc. I'm not advocating pulling out of the EU.
I would like to see it reformed to make it democratic, and turned away from becoming a political union.
I am all in favour of friendship and free-trade. But that's it.

OK, the ECB started raising interest rates in the Autumn of 06. Exactly what you are saying the ECB should have done all along.

What did Cowen do? Double Mortgage Interest relief!

Mario007

free to prosper wrote: »

Nobody said the ecb was a conspiracy,

and nobody here has said the economy overheated cause of ECB and nothing else.

Read my post above and don't misrepresent what I say.

Proper discussion is based on honesty -

It's simple - The ECB and mass immigration post 2004 was a major contributor to overheating and the recession. Comprendez?
No-one denies there were other factors - outlined above also.

your post sounded as if the mass imigration and ECB were the only factors contributing to the downturn in economy. i still holf my position on the mass immigration actually helping the boom to last 5 more years...and a strong euro helped irish imports also...

asdasd

i still holf my position on the mass immigration actually helping the boom to last 5 more years...and a strong euro helped irish imports also...

You are not helping your case. The rise of imports was unsustainable, as was the boom. The longer it lasted, the longer it would fall.

free to prosper

Thanks P. Breanacht.

I like your humourous analogy, but the choice before us in less than 3 months is a choice between No and yes.

The Irish people in a democratic referendum have already voted NO.

We see the contempt the EU elites have for the votes of the French and the Dutch and the Irish.

We must vote NO until the EU becomes democratic and responds to wishes of the peoples of the nation states of Europe, and not a plaything of the economic and political elites.

I'm voting No to Lisbon also on economic grounds.
Our recent past has shown that losing control of our interest rates and immigration policy have done some damage to our economy.

I am cheesed off about EU directives trying to tell people - no eel fishing, no turf cutting. I want to see Ireland get a bigger cut of the fishing quota.
Voting NO sends a clear signal, we are not happy to be simply swept along for the benefit of an EU politcal elite who hold their own people in contempt.

Mario007

asdasd wrote: »

You are not helping your case. The rise of imports was unsustainable, as was the boom. The longer it lasted, the longer it would fall.

it was cowen's role to make prudent budgets but no instead he openly said in 2006 he would not go with the prudent economics but would take gambles

free to prosper wrote: »

Thanks P. Breanacht.

I like your humourous analogy, but the choice before us in less than 3 months is a choice between No and yes.

The Irish people in a democratic referendum have already voted NO.

We see the contempt the EU elites have for the votes of the French and the Dutch and the Irish.

We must vote NO until the EU becomes democratic and responds to wishes of the peoples of the nation states of Europe, and not a plaything of the economic and political elites.

I'm voting No to Lisbon also on economic grounds.
Our recent past has shown that losing control of our interest rates and immigration policy have done some damage to our economy.

I am cheesed off about EU directives trying to tell people - no eel fishing, no turf cutting. I want to see Ireland get a bigger cut of the fishing quota.
Voting NO sends a clear signal, we are not happy to be simply swept along for the benefit of an EU politcal elite who hold their own people in contempt.

ha brilliant. so you're voting no to EU, in your mind. grand, no problem with that. but in reality your voting no to lisbon, not eu. you're voting for nice, in fact, and saying no to lisbon...just remember that.
about the democratics of the referendum...it is democratic...how many times does that have to be repeated....democracy is expressing your opinion....and you can do so in october. if a TD came with a referendum on abortion legalization and it didnt pass the very next day could another TD come up with the same referendum and it would be legal and democratic.

free to prosper

Mario007 wrote: »

about the democratics of the referendum...it is democratic...how many times does that have to be repeated....

We can see an EU-style referendum has to be repeated until they get the result the political class want.

Like Ford, you can have any colour you like as long as it's black.
EU referendum, any result you like as long as it's Yes.

That is not democracy - that's tyranny.
Mugabe - that's what he was at.

The EU could be something great. We're helping the EU longterm by voting No.

K-9

Tbh, this really is getting to the soap box stage. There doesn't seem to be any attempt to address points against the point of view whatsoever!

Scofflaw

K-9 wrote: »

Tbh, this really is getting to the soap box stage. There doesn't seem to be any attempt to address points against the point of view whatsoever!

We're getting to that point alright. People are beginning to do the "Mugabe" thing - and perhaps it's time to remind newer posters that this isn't politics.ie. You can't simply post the same rubbish repeatedly and refuse to engage with other posters' points, because this is a discussion forum, not a graffiti wall or a microphone at the end of Grafton Street. Comparisons between any Western democracy and Zimbabwe are so hysterical as to deserve no place in mature discussion - and this is a forum for mature discussion.

You've been warned.

moderately,
Scofflaw

K-9

free to prosper wrote: »

I am cheesed off about EU directives trying to tell people - no eel fishing, no turf cutting.

Can you point out the directives or is it the usual Daily Mail type shock factor?

Scofflaw

K-9 wrote: »

Can you point out the directives or is it the usual Daily Mail type shock factor?

There is a Directive for the former, requiring eel catches to be cut by 40% - although here that's been 'gold-plated' by Minister Ryan to 100%. The Directive for the latter is the Habitats Directive, which came into force a decade ago, and from which we've had a decade-long derogation (theoretically to allow any affected landowners to find alternative fuel sources), recently extended for yet another year by Minister Gormley - it affects about 4% of untouched bogland, or something like 1.8% of all bog, most of it already in public ownership. Just the bits of particular scientific interest, you see.

off-topically,
Scofflaw

free to prosper

Now Cowen is at the same game as Lenihan blaming cheap euro interest rates and mass immigration for the overheating and eventual bust.
He adds in other factors as well - housing demand etc.


Cowen defends record in Finance

The Taoiseach said the IMF’s latest analysis showed that the housing boom had been mainly caused by cheap credit due to low interest rates. This combined with rising incomes, a fast-growing population and workforce, and pent-up demand for housing, to create a structural weakness in the economy now exposed by the international economic crisis. However, our interest rates are set by the European Central Bank, not the Irish Government.

IT Saturday, July 4, 2009
by STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor

Hitman Actual

free to prosper wrote: »

Now Cowen is at the same game as Lenihan blaming cheap euro interest rates and mass immigration for the overheating and eventual bust.
He adds in other factors as well - housing demand etc.


Cowen defends record in Finance



IT Saturday, July 4, 2009
by STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor

I don't think anyone is really listening to you on this anymore (it's tiresome at this stage), but in the very next paragraph he also draws attention to the fact that the tax incentives in place were also to blame. Unfortunately it was too little too late.

Brian Cowen wrote:

“Regarding those aspects that were within my control, as minister for finance, I moved to end the tax incentives that then existed for the property market. In budget 2005, I announced a review of tax incentive schemes. In budget 2006, in line with the recommendations, I announced a termination date of July 31st, 2008, for all existing property-related tax incentive schemes with the exception of private hospitals, registered nursing homes and childcare facilities.

And also, he doesn't make any reference to 'mass immigration', but to "a fast-growing population and workforce".

The more spin you're trying to put on this, the less impact it's having. You need to work out when to stop.

asdasd

And also, he doesn't make any reference to 'mass immigration', but to "a fast-growing population and workforce".

How did the population grow so fast, so quickly?

Hitman Actual

asdasd wrote: »

How did the population grow so fast, so quickly?

It's not the point. free_to_prosper is continuously trying to hammer home the point that the EU (through the ECB and immigration) is solely to blame for our woes. It's a subtle propaganda spin to make the Lisbon vote about that, and not Lisbon itself.

P. Breathnach

Hitman Actual wrote: »

It's not the point. free_to_prosper is continuously trying to hammer home the point that the EU (through the ECB and immigration) is solely to blame for our woes. It's a subtle propaganda spin to make the Lisbon vote about that, and not Lisbon itself.

I disagree. It's not at all subtle.

The mendacity of so many of the no campaigners is astonishing.

O'Morris

Hitman Actual wrote:

It's not the point.

It is the point. Mass immigration from eastern Europe was the main cause of our fast-growing population and workforce. If the government hadn't made the decision to throw open our borders to hundreds of thousands of low-wage east Europeans then the demand for housing would not have been as great and the supply of labour to build all the houses would have been more limited.

Hitman Actual wrote:

free_to_prosper is continuously trying to hammer home the point that the EU (through the ECB and immigration) is solely to blame for our woes.

I don't think anyone has claimed that the ECB and mass immigration are solely to blame. They were two major contributory factors though and without them the housing bubble would not have gotten as big as it did.

It's not about trying to pass the blame onto the EU either. It was a Fianna Fail government who made the decision for Ireland to surrender control over our monetary policy to a foreign central bank and it was another Fianna Fail government who decided to lift the restrictions on people from the new Accession states. In hindsight we can now see that both decisions have had negative consequences for our economy.

Time Magazine

O'Morris wrote: »

It is the point. Mass immigration from eastern Europe was the main cause of our fast-growing population and workforce. If the government hadn't made the decision to throw open our borders to hundreds of thousands of low-wage east Europeans then the demand for housing would not have been as great and the supply of labour to build all the houses would have been more limited.

Are you just speaking your own opinion, or can you find any published report or academic anywhere in the entire world to back that up?

dresden8

The Economist wrote: »

Are you just speaking your own opinion, or can you find any published report or academic anywhere in the entire world to back that up?

Compare the number from Ireland to the total for each year.

http://www.welfare.ie/EN/Topics/PPSN/Pages/ppsn_all_2008.aspx

Look at the trend on Eastern European countries pre and post 2004.

Hitman Actual

O'Morris wrote: »

I don't think anyone has claimed that the ECB and mass immigration are solely to blame. They were two major contributory factors though and without them the housing bubble would not have gotten as big as it did.

free to prosper clearly started the thread to imply that the blame was solely with the EU, then back-tracked to a more moderate position when challenged. With his latest post he is going back to his original position, or why else would he conveniently ignore that in the next paragraph of the article, Cowen discussed the problem of tax incentives? ftp has no interest in debating the issue, he's just trying to generate another non-issue for the Lisbon II referendum.

Time Magazine

dresden8 wrote: »

Compare the number from Ireland to the total for each year.

http://www.welfare.ie/EN/Topics/PPSN/Pages/ppsn_all_2008.aspx

Look at the trend on Eastern European countries pre and post 2004.

Yes, we know they came and we know they registered to work. Their actual impact on housing supply, demand and price hasn't been asserted on this thread, but O'Morris seems happy to place a considerable amount of blame on them.

Scofflaw

Hitman Actual wrote: »

free to prosper clearly started the thread to imply that the blame was solely with the EU, then back-tracked to a more moderate position when challenged. With his latest post he is going back to his original position, or why else would he conveniently ignore that in the next paragraph of the article, Cowen discussed the problem of tax incentives? ftp has no interest in debating the issue, he's just trying to generate another non-issue for the Lisbon II referendum.

Vote No to Lisbon because of immigration...vote No to Lisbon because FF are incompetent...vote No to Lisbon because our housing bubble burst...vote No to Lisbon because of the turbaned peril...vote No to Lisbon because of Spanish unemployment...vote No to Lisbon because of declining fish quotas...vote No to Lisbon to lose the Irish Commissioner...

I almost miss Libertas.

cordially,
Scofflaw

dresden8

The Economist wrote: »

Yes, we know they came and we know they registered to work. Their actual impact on housing supply, demand and price hasn't been asserted on this thread, but O'Morris seems happy to place a considerable amount of blame on them.

Well, I doubt if he'll find a piece of academic research saying that Eastern Eurpoeans prefer to live in houses and apartments instead of cardboard boxes on the street, but logic tells us these people needed somewhere to live.

Time Magazine

dresden8 wrote: »

Well, I doubt if he'll find a piece of academic research saying that Eastern Eurpoeans prefer to live in houses and apartments instead of cardboard boxes on the street, but logic tells us these people needed somewhere to live.

I'm not denying that. That's perfectly logical. "[D]emand for housing would not have been as great and the supply of labour to build all the houses would have been more limited" was what O'Morris said, followed soon after by calling them a "major contributory factor" to the housing boom.

What logic doesn't tell is the actual effect of these guys on house prices. How much were they responsible? 1%? 3%? 6%? We need to know these numbers before we can call things major contributory factors.

When you think that many accession state migrants worked in construction (lowering house prices), and that they tended to be cheaper than Irish workers (lowering house prices), and tended not to buy but to rent (only an indirect increase on house prices), an assertion that they were a major contributory factor without any evidence whatsoever can only be explained by two things: ignorance or laziness.

dresden8

The Economist wrote: »

an assertion that they were a major contributory factor without any evidence whatsoever can only be explained by two things: ignorance or laziness.

On the part of O'Morris or the Minister for Finance?

It was originally the Min's assertion.

Time Magazine

dresden8 wrote: »

On the part of O'Morris or the Minister for Finance?

It was originally the Min's assertion.

It's not the assertion I'm calling ignorant or lazy. It's the assertion without proof I have a bone to pick with.

If the Minister is saying that without evidence (quite likely), then it applies equally to both of them.

Scofflaw

dresden8 wrote: »

On the part of O'Morris or the Minister for Finance?

It was originally the Min's assertion.

Well, we already knew about the Minister. O'Morris tarring himself with the same brush as an FF Minister of the current government seems a little like self-abuse to me, but it takes all sorts to make a world. If the assertion is lazy, the assertion is lazy, whether made by Lenihan or a poster here.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

The Economist wrote: »

I'm not denying that. That's perfectly logical. "[D]emand for housing would not have been as great and the supply of labour to build all the houses would have been more limited" was what O'Morris said, followed soon after by calling them a "major contributory factor" to the housing boom.

What logic doesn't tell is the actual effect of these guys on house prices. How much were they responsible? 1%? 3%? 6%? We need to know these numbers before we can call things major contributory factors.

When you think that many accession state migrants worked in construction (lowering house prices), and that they tended to be cheaper than Irish workers (lowering house prices), and tended not to buy but to rent (only an indirect increase on house prices), an assertion that they were a major contributory factor without any evidence whatsoever can only be explained by two things: ignorance or laziness.

Here's a graph of Irish house prices since 1996.



Note the huge acceleration in house prices associated with immigration? No, because there isn't one. The trend remains exactly the same.

cordially,
Scofflaw

djpbarry

O'Morris wrote: »

It was a Fianna Fail government who made the decision for Ireland to surrender control over our monetary policy to a foreign central bank and it was another Fianna Fail government who decided to lift the restrictions on people from the new Accession states.

I’m pretty sure there was a referendum or two involved.

free to prosper

Yes, EU integrationists told us to

Vote Yes to the Treaty of Maastricht and give up our own currency
(hence loosing control of our interest rates _

and they told us to

Vote Yes to the Treaty of Nice (along 10 state accession and de facto mass immigration from low wage Eastern Europe.

What did that get us: according to Lenihan and Cowen?

Taking property incentives and bank regulation into consideration

It brought Overheating economy and Recession.

And the same fanatical proponents of EU Political Union now tell us to
vote Yes to the Treaty of Lisbon.

You would have to be mad to listen to these people. Thank God - Dick Roche is on their side.

airhorn

How many Irish Citizens would be on the dole today if we did'nt open up our borders ?
The Celtic Tiger was the worst thing that ever happened this country, we're worse off now than we ever were.
These immigrants need to return home now,