Brian Lenihan blames euro and Eastern cheap labour for recession

mikemac

K-9 wrote: »

£1 an hour was what I got in 1990.

I got IR£2.50 as a kitchen porter/dishwasher in 1998, thought it was a brilliant wage:D

Time Magazine

asdasd wrote: »

Your counter-counter factual has no weight either. What we do know is that deflation, or low inflation, did not correlate with high immigration. That's it as far as evidence goes.

No. That's as far as your understanding goes. Correlation does not imply causation, and the evidence for causation can be overwhelmed by other factors unless you hold them constant.

I gave a homeless person €5 last year and yet inequality in Ireland increased in 2008. Does that mean giving money charitably increased inequality? "Does not correlate" indeed.

Scofflaw

K-9 wrote: »

All 100% legally of course, hence our righteous indignation.

Oh, absolutely. Not in the black or grey economy at all. That's why we've never needed, say, amnesties for illegal Irish workers in the US...

completely truthfully,
Scofflaw

K-9

mikemac wrote: »

I got IR£2.50 as a kitchen porter/dishwasher in 1998, thought it was a brilliant wage:D

I'm outraged!

No harm reminding us what we had and what we do have now, on both sides of the debate!

airhorn

In the town where i live 1200 people on the dole, one of the 3 factorys in the town employs 300 Brazilians of of a total 380 people,

Any of ye pro immagrant people like to post ye'r views on that one ?????

P. Breathnach

airhorn wrote: »

In the town where i live 1200 people on the dole, one of the 3 factorys in the town employs 300 Brazilians of of a total 380 people,

Any of ye pro immagrant people like to post ye'r views on that one ?????

I presume it is a meat factory, which involves skilled work. They could not have been employed without getting work permits. They would not have got work permits if there were suitable Irish or other EU citizens willing to take the jobs.

I'll give an extra opinion to the one you invited: you are motivated by xenophobia.

FutureTaoiseach

P.Breathnach wrote:

They would not have got work permits if there were suitable Irish or other EU citizens willing to take the jobs.

Theory or practice? Remember Irish Ferries.

djpbarry

asdasd wrote: »

immigrants from higher income countries would not come here to take cheaper jobs than they could get at home ( in general), so people do not resent immigration from high income countries.

Do people on "high incomes"? I'm curious to know why the low-income, unskilled workers deserve protection from competition in the labour market, but the high-wage, skilled workers do not?

djpbarry

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

Theory or practice? Remember Irish Ferries.

Yes, I remember Irish Ferries. What's your point?

FutureTaoiseach

djpbarry wrote: »

Yes, I remember Irish Ferries. What's your point?

That there is a danger that exploited migrant-labour is being employed not because of an unavailability of Irish/EU labour (as required by work-permit rules), but rather to drive down pay and conditions. The Migrant Rights Centre did a report (reported on Prime Time) a while back showing that over 50% of migrant workers in the restaurant sector were getting paid below the minimum-wage.

Zuiderzee

The guy is, like Cowen, Kenny and many others, in his seat because he inherited it from Daddy.

I dont think the Minister has the mental capacity to deal with the current economic crisis.
In a panic he has decided to try to get out of trouble by endorsing Lisbon.

He says the Euro and Eastern European Labour are the roots of todays problems, these are policies and decisions that he and his party have been the main driving force and are directly to blame.
There is also the property bust, the bailout of at Anglo Irish putting us in debt for God knows how long and a whole raft of other bad decisions.

He is now trying to push through a Lisbon agreement that compounds the very issues that have created our problems, by saying it will solve them.

And yet many people still believe him and his ilk !!!

Quite simply, doing something with teh Corrib field that gets the nation royalties n the Gas would be a great help, no one has even floated that yet.

The point is a bad workman blames his tools - but in this case lenehen is a tool

djpbarry

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

That there is a danger that exploited migrant-labour is being employed...

Irish Ferries are exploiting immigrants? Do you have any evidence to back up that accusation?

Zuiderzee

Irish Ferries initially tried to hire the Baltic citizens at a rate lower than the Irish minimum wage.
Patheticaly this was one of the few things the Irish Union took action on.

The only Union that took proper action to try and help Irish seafarers were the French, by dockers refusing to work with the ship.

In addition, there was a case of a worker from the Phillipenes who was really underpaid, again the Union took action on her behalf.

Paing someone less than minimum wage for the same job is exploitation

dresden8

Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
That there is a danger that exploited migrant-labour is being employed...

djpbarry wrote: »

Irish Ferries are exploiting immigrants? Do you have any evidence to back up that accusation?

The quoted sentence has nothing in common with your reply.

Talk about putting words in someone's mouth.

P. Breathnach

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

Theory or practice? Remember Irish Ferries.

Yes, I remember Irish Ferries. Irish staff were made redundant and replaced by EU workers who did not need work permits. How does that relate to what I said?

asdasd

No. That's as far as your understanding goes. Correlation does not imply causation, and the evidence for causation can be overwhelmed by other factors unless you hold them constant.

I gave a homeless person €5 last year and yet inequality in Ireland increased in 2008. Does that mean giving money charitably increased inequality? "Does not correlate" indeed.

You really dont have to explain correlation to me. I actually gave an example of how immigration may well have been more inflationary than higher wages ( dependent on the savings rates of higher earners).

That said, since immigration always seems to be at it's highest during booms, and thus during periods of robust inflation, it seems that even if wage inflation is reduced, real inflation is increased. Thats the empirical fact. I gave one idea on that one too - the increases in retail rents due to the limited supply of retail real estate. Thats from the Undercover Eonomist, by the way.

So a silly story about ice creams is not getting us anywhere. There is a correlation between immigration, and inflation. If that inflation is not caused by wage inflation, it is caused by something else. Ergo, wages go down, but the cost of living up.

asdasd

Irish staff were made redundant and replaced by EU workers who did not need work permits. How does that relate to what I said?

How do you feel, as a public employee, about a market driven policy for your job, fueled by immigration. Every September your job is posted and if an immigrant can do it cheaper, and has enough experience, he gets it, unless you counter offer.

this would help balance the books, and be fairer. Why should one sector of society be exempt from competition with immigrants.

Plus this makes other workers better off, what with lower taxes.

Time Magazine

asdasd wrote: »

You really dont have to explain correlation to me.

...

There is a correlation between immigration, and inflation. If that inflation is not caused by wage inflaion, it is caused by something else. Ergo, wages go down, but the cost of living up.

Sigh.

No. That inflation could be caused, for example, by more favourable exchange rates, lower interest rates, greater FDI, less imports, lower tax rates, higher government expenditure, unions demanding higher wages, an increase in the price of oil, lower competition, or any other of one hundred different things. Correlations on their own mean nothing.

On an unrelated note, I'm sure the anti-EU guys will be delighted to hear that the number of people from the accession states on the Live Register has fallen for the past two months.

djpbarry

dresden8 wrote: »

The quoted sentence has nothing in common with your reply.

Really?

djpbarry wrote: »

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

djpbarry wrote: »

FutureTaoiseach wrote: »

Theory or practice? Remember Irish Ferries.

Yes, I remember Irish Ferries. What's your point?

That there is a danger that exploited migrant-labour is being employed...

Irish Ferries are exploiting immigrants? Do you have any evidence to back up that accusation?

Makes sense to me.

djpbarry

Zuiderzee wrote: »

Irish Ferries initially tried to hire the Baltic citizens at a rate lower than the Irish minimum wage.
...
Paing someone less than minimum wage for the same job is exploitation

Are Irish Ferries exploiting workers at this point in time?

asdasd

That inflation could be caused, for example, by more favourable exchange rates, lower interest rates, greater FDI, less imports, lower tax rates, higher government expenditure, unions demanding higher wages, an increase in the price of oil, lower competition, or any other of one hundred different things. Correlations on their own mean nothing.

Oh for FFS. We are talking about the clear increases in inflation in every single economy when immigration is running full tilt. The rest of your argument is a Just So story. Inflation has now fallen, along with immigration.

Correlation is not causation, but your claim - that inflation is higher without immigration - has been disproven because negative correlation precludes causation. Clearly wage inflation has little effect on inflation these days.

Try not to lecture me on this. Again. And read my post. Even if wage inflation decreased during the time of immigration, inflaition increased. I gave two mechanisms. The other mechanisms you gave ( price of oil etc.) are disconnected with immigration, and can be ruled out.

what we know is, in ireland, the UK, the US etc. - high levels of immigration are correlatative with high inflation. If immigration casues wage deflation, the that high level of inflation makes the working classes even poorer than they would otherwise be.

asdasd

Are Irish Ferries exploiting workers at this point in time?

No, they just replaced Irish workers with cheaper workers. So that's alright then.

But, we have always known that was the point. Your forensic nit-picking bugs the bejesus out of me, it leads threads off-topic.

P. Breathnach

asdasd wrote: »

How do you feel, as a public employee, about a market driven policy for your job, fueled by immigration. Every September your job is posted and if an immigrant can do it cheaper, and has enough experience, he gets it, unless you counter offer.

this would help balance the books, and be fairer. Why should one sector of society be exempt from competition with immigrants.

Plus this makes other workers better off, what with lower taxes.

This has less and less relevance to the point I made about Brazilian workers. They could have got permits only if they were filling jobs that could not otherwise have been filled.

For what it's worth, I am quite willing to say that I consider what Irish Ferries did to be reprehensible, and because of it I now choose other carriers when I travel.

P. Breathnach

djpbarry wrote: »

Are Irish Ferries exploiting workers at this point in time?

I believe that they are.

Scofflaw

asdasd wrote: »

Oh for FFS. We are talking about the clear increases in inflation in every single economy when immigration is running full tilt. The rest of your argument is a Just So story. Inflation has now fallen, along with immigration.

Correlation is not causation, but your claim - that inflation is higher without immigration - has been disproven because negative correlation precludes causation. Clearly wage inflation has little effect on inflation these days.

Try not to lecture me on this. Again. And read my post. Even if wage inflation decreased during the time of immigration, inflaition increased. I gave two mechanisms. The other mechanisms you gave ( price of oil etc.) are disconnected with immigration, and can be ruled out.

what we know is, in ireland, the UK, the US etc. - high levels of immigration are correlatative with high inflation. If immigration casues wage deflation, the that high level of inflation makes the working classes even poorer than they would otherwise be.

You are confusing correlation with causation, though. Inflation rises when economies are expanding. If an expanding economy has open borders, it will attract immigration. If the economy starts to contract, inflation will fall, and the immigrants will start to leave.

Economics 101.

cordially,
Scofflaw

fiveyears

Lennihan is right if the people in east europe didnt work for seo little companies wont be moving form Ireland to Poland. First they come and take our jobs. Now there stealing the companies taht were here

Scofflaw

fiveyears wrote: »

Lennihan is right if the people in east europe didnt work for seo little companies wont be moving form Ireland to Poland. First they come and take our jobs. Now there stealing the companies taht were here

Let's be clear about something - if this thread turns into the kind of garbled ill-informed anti-immigrant rants that certain other sites happily cater for, it will be closed. If you want to discuss the political/economic/social ramifications of immigration, fine - if you want to either vent your xenophobia or, indeed, your political correctness, take it elsewhere.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Time Magazine

asdasd wrote: »

We are talking about the clear increases in inflation in every single economy when immigration is running full tilt. ... Inflation has now fallen, along with immigration.

Again, as Scofflaw has pointed out, correlation without accounting for other factors is nothing. What you need to do, if you're good with maths, is take the partial derivatives; not just look at simple correlations. Countries that are expanding tend to have higher inflation and migrants go to economies that are expanding, and the opposite holds in recessions. Correlation does not imply the causation, though.

One last example that will hopefully get you to see the point. If this doesn't work I give up so either way you won't have to suffer another lesson from me.

The Industrial Revolution occurs, people get richer and pollutions starts to occur. As people get richer they tend to have fewer kids. As the number of children of twindle, it is found that pollution is getting worse. Then the factory shuts down, people are less rich and therefore starting having more kids, but pollution also starts to decline. So the average punter concludes that to lower pollution we should all have loads of kids.

But kids have no effect on pollution. The pollution comes from the factory, which affects the number of kids people have, there's no causal chain backwards. Similarly a fast growing economy (factory) will have inflation (pollution) and attract immigrants (kids), but the latter two have very little to do with each other.

djpbarry

asdasd wrote: »

No, they just replaced Irish workers with cheaper workers. So that's alright then.

Suppose the cheaper workers were Irish; would that be ok?

asdasd wrote: »

But, we have always known that was the point. Your forensic nit-picking bugs the bejesus out of me, it leads threads off-topic.

I’m not nit-picking, I’m challenging this ridiculous idea that any company that hires “cheap”, foreign employees is inherently evil.

Suppose I require a plumber. Suppose that there are two plumbers available to me. Suppose plumber ‘A’ wants to charge me €250 for the job and plumber ‘B’ is prepared to do the job for €200. If I hire plumber ‘B’, am I guilty of exploitation?

djpbarry

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I believe that they are.

Fair enough. I have no reason to believe that they are, although I am aware that they have been found guilty of exploitation in the past and their reputation has been deservedly sullied as a result.