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C & C

  • 04-06-2009 11:03pm
    #1
    An Capall Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭


    Hi all,

    Just wondering if C & C is worth a punt for the summer months. Share price is rising steadily and with new management in place looks like fresh approach to turn things round. A sunny summer would be a bonus too!!


«1

Comments

  • #2
    Tiesto
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Tiesto


    Hi there,
    I wouldnt..
    I bought in before the recession at 5.44.
    Then when they start to fall, i tried to cover some of my loss by buying more at 3.60 roughly..
    I cant ever see them climbing back to those previous highs..
    I wreckon if they reach 4, ill sell and take the hit..


  • #3
    royaler83
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 497 ✭✭royaler83


    Why did you buy a stock that was clearly dropping? Just because you got stung doesnt mean their a bad buy now.
    SP is on the rise, Dolmen have them as a Buy.


  • #4
    Tiesto
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Tiesto


    they werent 'clearly dropping' at the time.
    I still dont think they are a good buy.
    Revenue has been falling consistently.
    Demand for cider is down
    They are too reliant on the performance of one product


  • #5
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I would vehemently disagree. This company is in all the right places right now and with a bit of good luck (weather) even better places. Most brokers now have this on their buy list. The new Pear cider is selling very well and the company has cut it costs to ensure it can now sell the pint bottle at under €5 over the counter nationwide. Likely to pay a dividend, albeit a small one, this year too. I can see this at €3.10 by end of Summer.

    Hope this helps.


  • #6
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    Au contraire...it is meeting price resistance as a premium bottled product for cider! See the irish times link below......

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0618/1224249067709.html

    I have my reservations about the Pear product, though it will initially do well on a halo affect from the bulmers brand and a curiosity factor. Long term I can't see it becoming a big part of their business......IMHO......


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  • #7
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I was aware of this. It is up to the consumer to figure out whether the price cut is being passed on and I will certainly be checking as I frequent various pubs over the Summer months. Bulmers is not the only brand C&C owns,sells or promotes, it's important to remember this. Bulmers cider by itself in a good year would justify the current share price so anything above that would be an indication of improvements in its other lines.


  • #8
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    If the weather is good buy C&C if it is bad sell them. Simple as


  • #9
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I suppose you can't go too wrong with that approach either. I like shares where you can decide to buy based on what you see. Many consumer goods are like this, whereas with some B2B stocks it's not that simple - case in point Smurfit Kappa.


  • #10
    Dubh Geannain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,514 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    Hmm, I've got my reservations about the pear cider. I've heard a few too many stories of digestive system irregularities as a result of having a couple of bottles of it. They'll need to sort it out I reckon.

    On the share price if I had had the funds I would have bought a few shares back in January/February as the Summer was predicted to be a pretty good one.

    I know you'll say, sure don't they predict this every year :rolleyes:

    Of course normal meteorologists can't predict a week in advance let alone 5 months. It was a study I read from astronomical weather men who look at things like the earths tilt, solar activity, earths magnetic field activity and the like where they said it'd be a drier than average summer in this part of the world. Sorry, don't have a link to hand for this.


  • #11
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    If you were to eat several pears you would probably have the same problem but I believe they have already started addressing this issue down in their research facility in Clonmel. Yes, towards the end of last year and Jan - Mar this year were good times too. However, at least one of the company directors was happy to buy at €2.28 so I guess €2 is good enough for me.

    18-05-2009 L. FitzGerald BUY 21,900 ORD 228 49,932 35,000 0.01
    18-12-2008 J. Dunsmore BUY 5,120,000 ORD 115 5,888,000 5,120,000 1.56
    18-12-2008 S. Glancey BUY 5,120,000 ORD 115 5,888,000 5,120,000 1.56
    17-11-2008 P. Lynch BUY 100,000 ORD 145 145,000 760,819 0.24
    21-10-2008 P. Lynch BUY 200,000 ORD 124.16 248,320 660,819 0.21


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  • #12
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    At €2.46 at the moment....is the good weather having its affect or is the Pear cider really that good?

    Any thoughts?


  • #13
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    It was up around €2.53 earlier. I suspect both the pear and the weather plus several other initiatives, incl. recent dividend and new institutional investors building stakes. ACNielsen figures were very promising on Friday too. I can see this one up around €3.50-€3.75 in a couple of months, you heard it here first.


  • #14
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    €2.65 now


  • #15
    Tiesto
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Tiesto


    :confused:damn
    i sold last week @ 2.33 to buy some Bank of Ireland!!
    I didnt sell all however.
    I still have about 500 shs of C&C


  • #16
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Very positive trading update released today. Definite 'BUY & HOLD' now up until Sept / Oct.


  • #17
    An Capall Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭An Capall Dubh


    Trading update looked good, but doesn't seem to be enough to counteract the fall in share price since last Friday's high of €2.69. Did the issuing of an extra 1,000,000 shares yesterday really have that much of an effect on the share price dropping or what's going on at all?


  • #18
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Just a small glitch, following market negativity and POO. Back at €2.40 now. Seems to be showing strong resistance around the €2.35 mark. I also see this one as a very likely takeover target over the next year or two which adds huge weight to share price. Carlsberg & Heineken as far as I know are now involved in the cider game so another drinks group is likely to move in and follow.


  • #19
    TTNYWWBM
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭TTNYWWBM


    I think the Pear Cider has inflated the sp since it's launch and while ago and it's falling back now.

    The pear cider, It's ok, it's a fad, a gimmick, for very little their new favourite, but for most a try it once product (from the publicans btw), C+C spent a bloomin fortune promoting the stuff! Kopparberg have been producing arguably better fruit ciders for years and never set the drinks market on fire now did they?

    C'mon now lads, strategy based on Irish weather ;) But the more we're all f**ked by the recession – the more we'll drink, we are Irish remember? :p

    In all seriousness, if you have made a few quick 'cider vouchers' on the pear cider rally then fair dues, I hope you cashed out near or just after the peak, if you're looking for a long term riser out of recession (once we get over the current dip then buy in IMO) it's a fair guess that it will continue to steadily rise (as it has done before pear) IMHO


  • #20
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    The pear stuff is BIG in the UK (straight from the source too). Selling like crazy. Most seasoned cider drinkers I speak to from the UK are saying that the Kopperberg stuff is too sweet. The C&C dividend is the real threat though, especially in a downbeat market like this.


  • #21
    TTNYWWBM
    Closed Accounts Posts: 89 ✭✭TTNYWWBM


    TTNYWWBM wrote: »
    I think the Pear Cider has inflated the sp since it's launch and while ago and it's falling back now.

    The pear cider, It's ok, it's a fad, a gimmick, for very little their new favourite, but for most a try it once product (from the publicans btw), C+C spent a bloomin fortune promoting the stuff! Kopparberg have been producing arguably better fruit ciders for years and never set the drinks market on fire now did they?

    C'mon now lads, strategy based on Irish weather ;) But the more we're all f**ked by the recession – the more we'll drink, we are Irish remember? :p

    In all seriousness, if you have made a few quick 'cider vouchers' on the pear cider rally then fair dues, I hope you cashed out near or just after the peak, if you're looking for a long term riser out of recession (once we get over the current dip then buy in IMO) it's a fair guess that it will continue to steadily rise (as it has done before pear) IMHO


    http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0713/candc.html

    See this article on why the price has fallen so sharply.


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  • #22
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Does anyone know when the next trading update or press release will be?

    The share price seems to have hit resistance at around the €2.00-€2.05 level. Due a nice kick soon I'd imagine. Probably looking at a 7 cent dividend per share too this year which is rare in this environment.


  • #23
    Mort5000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭Mort5000


    http://www.ise.ie/app/dividendList.asp?INSTRUMENT_ID=22076

    :)


  • #24
    woodseb
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭woodseb


    their next update will probably be at its AGM on Aug 28th..........the correction to the update will be out the day after;)


  • #25
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    There was a very good article about C&C in The Phoenix. The thrust of the article was that if it wasn't for the fact that the current management team was so new, heads would have rolled after C&C filed dodgy accounts. The overall situation is still bad. Sales are falling and C&C have a massive amount of debt, especially since so much of their assets have been written down.


  • #26
    Tiesto
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Tiesto


    I hold about 400 shs foolishly bought at 5.30 and 3.70
    I'm thinking of liquidating and buying something else..
    Is there any reason why I should hold on?


  • #27
    makker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 89 ✭✭makker


    08:28 27Aug09 RTRS-STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-Beer deal boosts Ireland's C&C 10 pct
    Irish drinks group C&C Group <GCC.I><GCC.L> jumps over 11 percent after it buys the Irish and Scottish businesses of Anheuser-Busch InBev <ABI.BR>, including Tennent's, Scotland's largest lager brand, for 205 million euros.
    "It looks like a very postive deal on the face of it," says one Dublin-based dealer. "It might go a small bit higher from here, maybe up 15 percent but it wouldn't go more than that."
    C&C said the deal would be immediately earnings accretive. Excluding the purchase, the group reiterated its guidance that full-year operating profit would be at the top end of previously stated guidance range of 77 million euros to 82 million euros.
    For Relevant Price Information, Double Click on one of these codes:<GCC.I> <GCC.L> <ABI.BR>
    Thursday, 27 August 2009 08:28:27RTRS [nLR714358] {EN}ENDS


  • #28
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    The market has responded very positively to the news that C&C are taking over AB's Tenneats brand in Ireland, UK & Scotland. The main advantage is scope economies with marketing and distribution coming to the fore. These include the responsiblity for Stella, Becks & Budweiser in NI & Scotland. That gives it a pretty serious portfolio and are now more than just a cider company! ;)

    Already some heavy volumes this am......over 8m shares traded!!!! Its at €2.50 now and interims coming tomorrow! :pac:

    From an investor persepctive its difficult to reconcile this initiative with the reporting fiasco in early July. Its certainly quelled any market fears over management's ability.....for the moment!


  • #29
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Go on ya betsy, wish I had of bought more now haha


  • #30
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    With the huge amount of debt that has been taken on, you can forget about a dividend.


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  • #31
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    Its up to €2.70 now with under 3m shares traded......Yesterday there was massive volumes traded >10m.

    How long will this momentum sustain itself? The resistance over the last two days has been minimal. I reckon it could go to €3.


  • #32
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I can see €3 but not too much more (for now). I reckon it's mainly due to institutional investors putting this back on thir radar screens. forgiven for the accounting errors made. This share has now moved from a short term play to a very long term play. 2 years - €6.

    Conviction BUY for me.


  • #33
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I think it is fair to say that this view was completely off the money -

    TheInquisitor
    Registered User

    Join Date: Oct 2007
    Location: Limerick
    Posts: 617
    Adverts | Friends

    "If the weather is good buy C&C if it is bad sell them. Simple as"


  • #34
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    Any chance the two C&C threads can be merged? May make it easier & more coherent to follow.....


  • #35
    ixus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭ixus


    finisklin wrote: »
    Any chance the two C&C threads can be merged? May make it easier & more coherent to follow.....

    So let it be written so let it be done


  • #36
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    C&C issued a circular to shareholders over the last few days. AB Inbev's performance YTD is down 8%, its boosting its marketing spend by €8m (dunno if you've seen the recent ads about the price decrease?) and the key point is that C&Cs management are incentivsed to make the deal work.

    How? The directors are granted generous share options (€1.47m, to acquire 12.8m shares) worth more than €32m at todays SP. Crucially, this is linked to the share price trading over €2.50 for 20 of the previous 40 days in a 5 year period. They are now trading at €2.74.

    In relation to sales of Bulmers, the AB Inbev deal accesses tied public houses to the cider. This is where the brewer advances loans to public houses (in the north & UK, where it is a common practise) and in return gains exclusivity.

    It looks like a win win......SP is up and running :cool:

    Any thoughts......


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  • #37
    yobr
    Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    finisklin wrote: »
    They are now trading at €2.74.

    In relation to sales of Bulmers, the AB Inbev deal accesses tied public houses to the cider. This is where the brewer advances loans to public houses (in the north & UK, where it is a common practise) and in return gains exclusivity.

    Thanks for that info>>I was going to buy at € but held off ..silly me...what do you think this could go to?


  • #38
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    I bought at €1.60 and €2 so sitting nice right now. I could never understand why everyone was betting against this one. Everyone listening to the media too much imho. The research was done and the Bulmers was flowing all Summer, regardless of the weather. Just imagine the weather had of been a scorcher. Anyway, it's now looking really good.

    Recommendation: I would look for a low sentiment entry point of €2.50 and can see €4 in 12 months or so.


  • #39
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    Comordha wrote: »
    I bought at €1.60 and €2 so sitting nice right now. I could never understand why everyone was betting against this one. Everyone listening to the media too much imho. The research was done and the Bulmers was flowing all Summer, regardless of the weather. Just imagine the weather had of been a scorcher. Anyway, it's now looking really good.

    Recommendation: I would look for a low sentiment entry point of €2.50 and can see €4 in 12 months or so.

    I am not disagreeing with you as I got in at below €2...however management haven't helped themselves (trading update in July with the incorrect sales figures, that had to be revised) and the seasonal nature of their product range (too dependent on the weather) meant that this didn't appeal to many investors ROI criteria.

    The AB Inbev deal came out of the blue and against the backdrop of a poor Summer Weather, reporting fiasco, Pear Cider launch (I have a question mark over this) and a price decrease that pubs didn't pass on.

    The logic and rationale of the deal is perfect and the impact on the share price boosted it nicely. However I think that the momentum on the SP over the last few days is down to the markets rising overall and that it may fall back down to €2.60 levels, IMHO.

    The next trading update is in October and that will be a good barometer of how the post Summer sales went. Your right in the assessment for next 12 months....should hit €4. Could go further if the AB Inbev deal really kicks in and C&C leverage cider sales with Ab inbev.

    Happy daze......:pac:


  • #40
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    That has all past now. I understand your reservations in the short term but certainly long term I can see €4. The price discount issue is another matter altogether. Pubs should be named and shamed for not passing that one on. I do sometimes quiz staff about this as I feel it very unfair on the company (not just as an investor that is).


  • #41
    Bobby1984
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Bobby1984


    Got into this share in mid 2007 so my portfolio has taken a serious hit in the last year. Thought about selling at €5ish due to continued fall but ended up holding on foolishly. Harsh lesson learned.

    Totally agree that management shot themselves in the foot by making up those figures which were released a few months ago. Tarnished their rep and seriously affected the share price which had been improving steadily. Now that its back on the upward trend hopefully it will continue.

    I can see the results for this summer being better than last due to better weather (slightly) and the new pear cider which has been fairly successful based on experience. C&C are very good at advertising so this has also helped. Got notice today that an EGM is being held on 25th September so hopefully some goods news will come here. €3.50 by December and i would be happyish.

    Embrace the pear - drink cider


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  • #42
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    The general excitement re NAMA and the confidence in the markets are certainly helping raise this boat. It's up at 3.15 to day. In fairness, I didn't see this coming so soon....


  • #43
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    The fizz is going out of C&C's bottle big time......at €2.86 today.


  • #44
    Comordha
    Closed Accounts Posts: 562 ✭✭✭Comordha


    Calm down. The market has just gone a bit rotten. Fundamentals remain firmly intact.


  • #45
    dazzy8
    Registered Users Posts: 8 ✭dazzy8


    3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.


  • #46
    RizzoJR
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭RizzoJR


    dazzy8 wrote: »
    3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.

    dazzy8 can you give 2009 EPS and forecasted 2010 please??

    how is this in relation to e3.46? ie whats P/E?

    whats C&Cs P/E compared to sector competition?

    thanks


  • #47
    RizzoJR
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭RizzoJR


    dazzy8 wrote: »
    3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.

    Hi again Dazzy,

    what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

    thanks for the weather reports!!

    JR


  • #48
    RoadKillTs
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,710 ✭✭✭RoadKillTs


    Hi again Dazzy,

    what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

    thanks for the weather reports!!

    JR

    A prity good one by the [URL="http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&lang=en-GB&id=0P00007O26&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P00007O26]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL"]looks of things[/URL].

    C&C are running out of things to sell! :)

    I think its crazy the way they keep selling off all the valuable divisions of the company.

    Tayto, Britvic, Ballygowan and now the spirits division. They are very big brands and sellers.

    One trick pony gone lame.


    *unrelated fact: C&C were the reason I got interested in investing. Link


  • #49
    dazzy8
    Registered Users Posts: 8 ✭dazzy8


    RizzoJR wrote: »
    Hi again Dazzy,

    what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

    thanks for the weather reports!!

    JR

    hey
    been talk of off loading the spirit division for a few months now, Didnt think it would have a 300m price tag tho. It can only help to reduce the big debt an allow them to focus on the big CIDER picture.
    I like the timing aswell.

    Market certainly smiled at the sale.


  • #50
    finisklin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭finisklin


    RoadKillTs wrote: »
    A prity good one by the [URL="http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&lang=en-GB&id=0P00007O26&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P00007O26]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL"]looks of things[/URL].

    C&C are running out of things to sell! :)

    I think its crazy the way they keep selling off all the valuable divisions of the company.

    Tayto, Britvic, Ballygowan and now the spirits division. They are very big brands and sellers.

    One trick pony gone lame.


    *unrelated fact: C&C were the reason I got interested in investing. Link

    Makes them nice and ripe for a takeover though.......:p


  • #51
    RizzoJR
    Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭RizzoJR


    finisklin wrote: »
    Makes them nice and ripe for a takeover though.......:p

    and at what price would this takeover be?

    based on EPS of about 25c

    maybe 17x ??

    e4.25?

    20x max

    e5.00??

    Management would benefit greatly, with their stock options...

    However, CIDER
    I cant seeing it ever being an international hit,
    the continental beer is just too good


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