C & C

Comordha

I can see €3 but not too much more (for now). I reckon it's mainly due to institutional investors putting this back on thir radar screens. forgiven for the accounting errors made. This share has now moved from a short term play to a very long term play. 2 years - €6.

Conviction BUY for me.

Comordha

I think it is fair to say that this view was completely off the money -

TheInquisitor
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Limerick
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"If the weather is good buy C&C if it is bad sell them. Simple as"

finisklin

Any chance the two C&C threads can be merged? May make it easier & more coherent to follow.....

ixus

finisklin wrote: »

Any chance the two C&C threads can be merged? May make it easier & more coherent to follow.....

So let it be written so let it be done

finisklin

C&C issued a circular to shareholders over the last few days. AB Inbev's performance YTD is down 8%, its boosting its marketing spend by €8m (dunno if you've seen the recent ads about the price decrease?) and the key point is that C&Cs management are incentivsed to make the deal work.

How? The directors are granted generous share options (€1.47m, to acquire 12.8m shares) worth more than €32m at todays SP. Crucially, this is linked to the share price trading over €2.50 for 20 of the previous 40 days in a 5 year period. They are now trading at €2.74.

In relation to sales of Bulmers, the AB Inbev deal accesses tied public houses to the cider. This is where the brewer advances loans to public houses (in the north & UK, where it is a common practise) and in return gains exclusivity.

It looks like a win win......SP is up and running :cool:

Any thoughts......

yobr

finisklin wrote: »

They are now trading at €2.74.

In relation to sales of Bulmers, the AB Inbev deal accesses tied public houses to the cider. This is where the brewer advances loans to public houses (in the north & UK, where it is a common practise) and in return gains exclusivity.

Thanks for that info>>I was going to buy at € but held off ..silly me...what do you think this could go to?

Comordha

I bought at €1.60 and €2 so sitting nice right now. I could never understand why everyone was betting against this one. Everyone listening to the media too much imho. The research was done and the Bulmers was flowing all Summer, regardless of the weather. Just imagine the weather had of been a scorcher. Anyway, it's now looking really good.

Recommendation: I would look for a low sentiment entry point of €2.50 and can see €4 in 12 months or so.

finisklin

Comordha wrote: »

I bought at €1.60 and €2 so sitting nice right now. I could never understand why everyone was betting against this one. Everyone listening to the media too much imho. The research was done and the Bulmers was flowing all Summer, regardless of the weather. Just imagine the weather had of been a scorcher. Anyway, it's now looking really good.

Recommendation: I would look for a low sentiment entry point of €2.50 and can see €4 in 12 months or so.

I am not disagreeing with you as I got in at below €2...however management haven't helped themselves (trading update in July with the incorrect sales figures, that had to be revised) and the seasonal nature of their product range (too dependent on the weather) meant that this didn't appeal to many investors ROI criteria.

The AB Inbev deal came out of the blue and against the backdrop of a poor Summer Weather, reporting fiasco, Pear Cider launch (I have a question mark over this) and a price decrease that pubs didn't pass on.

The logic and rationale of the deal is perfect and the impact on the share price boosted it nicely. However I think that the momentum on the SP over the last few days is down to the markets rising overall and that it may fall back down to €2.60 levels, IMHO.

The next trading update is in October and that will be a good barometer of how the post Summer sales went. Your right in the assessment for next 12 months....should hit €4. Could go further if the AB Inbev deal really kicks in and C&C leverage cider sales with Ab inbev.

Happy daze......:pac:

Comordha

That has all past now. I understand your reservations in the short term but certainly long term I can see €4. The price discount issue is another matter altogether. Pubs should be named and shamed for not passing that one on. I do sometimes quiz staff about this as I feel it very unfair on the company (not just as an investor that is).

Bobby1984

Got into this share in mid 2007 so my portfolio has taken a serious hit in the last year. Thought about selling at €5ish due to continued fall but ended up holding on foolishly. Harsh lesson learned.

Totally agree that management shot themselves in the foot by making up those figures which were released a few months ago. Tarnished their rep and seriously affected the share price which had been improving steadily. Now that its back on the upward trend hopefully it will continue.

I can see the results for this summer being better than last due to better weather (slightly) and the new pear cider which has been fairly successful based on experience. C&C are very good at advertising so this has also helped. Got notice today that an EGM is being held on 25th September so hopefully some goods news will come here. €3.50 by December and i would be happyish.

Embrace the pear - drink cider

finisklin

The general excitement re NAMA and the confidence in the markets are certainly helping raise this boat. It's up at 3.15 to day. In fairness, I didn't see this coming so soon....

finisklin

The fizz is going out of C&C's bottle big time......at €2.86 today.

Comordha

Calm down. The market has just gone a bit rotten. Fundamentals remain firmly intact.

dazzy8

3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.

RizzoJR

dazzy8 wrote: »

3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.

dazzy8 can you give 2009 EPS and forecasted 2010 please??

how is this in relation to e3.46? ie whats P/E?

whats C&Cs P/E compared to sector competition?

thanks

RizzoJR

dazzy8 wrote: »

3.46 at the mo, blue skies everywhere. buy, buy, buy.

Hi again Dazzy,

what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

thanks for the weather reports!!

JR

RoadKillTs

Hi again Dazzy,

what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

thanks for the weather reports!!

JR

A prity good one by the [URL="http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&lang=en-GB&id=0P00007O26&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P00007O26]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL"]looks of things[/URL].

C&C are running out of things to sell!

I think its crazy the way they keep selling off all the valuable divisions of the company.

Tayto, Britvic, Ballygowan and now the spirits division. They are very big brands and sellers.

One trick pony gone lame.


*unrelated fact: C&C were the reason I got interested in investing. Link

dazzy8

RizzoJR wrote: »

Hi again Dazzy,

what do you think impact of selling spirits division will have?

thanks for the weather reports!!

JR

hey
been talk of off loading the spirit division for a few months now, Didnt think it would have a 300m price tag tho. It can only help to reduce the big debt an allow them to focus on the big CIDER picture.
I like the timing aswell.

Market certainly smiled at the sale.

finisklin

RoadKillTs wrote: »

A prity good one by the [URL="http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/stockreport/default.aspx?Site=uk&lang=en-GB&id=0P00007O26&LanguageId=en-GB&SecurityToken=0P00007O26]3]0]E0WWE$$ALL"]looks of things[/URL].

C&C are running out of things to sell!

I think its crazy the way they keep selling off all the valuable divisions of the company.

Tayto, Britvic, Ballygowan and now the spirits division. They are very big brands and sellers.

One trick pony gone lame.


*unrelated fact: C&C were the reason I got interested in investing. Link

Makes them nice and ripe for a takeover though.......:p

RizzoJR

finisklin wrote: »

Makes them nice and ripe for a takeover though.......:p

and at what price would this takeover be?

based on EPS of about 25c

maybe 17x ??

e4.25?

20x max

e5.00??

Management would benefit greatly, with their stock options...

However, CIDER
I cant seeing it ever being an international hit,
the continental beer is just too good

finisklin

With credit to the management team, the sale of the spirits division for €300m at almost 18 times earnings is a big feather in their cap. And this after the misreporting fiasco last June in their filings.

They have laid out their strategy...to be in the LAD segment and the acquisition of Tennents and Gaymers helps getting Magners in to pubs in the UK through their distribution, ownership network.

With very little debt, Dunsmore experience of selling off Scottish & Newcastle will aid any future sale. The likely suitor is Carlsberg and perhaps the opportunity is to use their continental distribution network to deliver a clear route to market.

To answer your question I can see this going to €5.50 - €6.50......

RizzoJR

finisklin wrote: »

To answer your question I can see this going to €5.50 - €6.50......

I dont think (takeover) price could go this high yet
with EPS of under 30c ?

Lower debt is nice...

Is management more interested in creating something for takeover
or something for eps growth independantly?

If no buyers appear they can easily raise dividend, esp with less debt.

Comordha

There'll be nice divis to be reaped from this one over the next year or two if there is not a takeover approach.

cute geoge

Old tread but whats new with c&c see there doing some sort of rights issue ,What is the story nowadays with them are they still a basket case .

garrettod

These guys have an over reliance on cider, IMHO.