ok so you try to evade an attack...

Havo · 05-08-2008 12:31PM

But like how do i increase my odds...was just walkin home from my local shop like any other day ya know...i mean its never happend to me there like that before....who goes to der local shop "thinkin how am i going to increase my odds of not getting attacked???"...its not even a bad area or neting and wasnt even dark... just complete scum bags ...who carry weapons on dem for the craic....great bunch of lads ya know

Baggio... · 05-08-2008 12:45PM

Havo wrote: »

just complete scum bags ...who carry weapons on dem for the craic....great bunch of lads ya know

Seems to be a lot of them about.

Boru. · 05-08-2008 01:27PM

mark.leonard wrote: »

Co-incidentally I have done some research for my next article in the Irish Fighter on this and it will be in the September issue.

Can't wait to read it. I too have been busy researching an article for Rob regards knife defenses and my reality based take on it - again, did a lot of research into the statistics etc. Interesting stuff.

On the one hand according to the Irish Independent (Tuesday 4 March 2008) knife crime in Ireland had risen 300pc in four years. On the other is you work it out the chances of you being assaulted with a knife are less than 216,267 to 1. That means it is very, very unlikely you will be stabbed. So let’s not panic. It's like Roper mentionted earlier, the amount of violent crime has gone up, however so as the per capita population, and overal crime has reduced becasue the increase in population does mean an identical increase in percentage crime.

As for random attacks well - nothing is ever random. It's the difference between being a hard or easy target - but that's my personal opinion nothing more.

Havo · 05-08-2008 01:28PM

Baggio... wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of them about.

Sure are... wats goin on in this country??

Clive · 05-08-2008 01:47PM

Charlie3dan wrote: »

If you walk home alone, through a dark alley, where attacks frequently occur, swinging your note filled wallet you make yourself an easy target. You couldn't even consider that a random attack.

Call me an easy target so! I can understand it for people with family responsibilities, or women, but I really don't get it when I hear young, single guys talking about avoiding places or situations (I don't mean you Charlie3dan, just a general point). I for one will certainly not let some scummers stop me going where the hell ever I want.

I frequently walk alone at night through all sorts of dodgy areas, both in Ireland and abroad and long may it continue.

Boru. · 05-08-2008 01:54PM

Baggio... wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of them about.

Again, not as many as the doom and gloom would make you think. I think it's safe to say that London would be worse of for knife crime than here. With that in mind, take a look at the following exert from my upcoming article...

Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner Tim Godwin said: "I would hate anyone to think that all young people in London carry knives”.
"We stopped 32,000 people in the main areas where we have concerns based on our intelligence. Out of those 32,000 searches, we've found 730 knives - so that's 2 in 100."

That's 2%. Not a huge figure.

What worries me more is that many martial artists, and I will admit this reality based guys in particular (the stupid opnes mind you) carry knives and tactical folders. At a martial arts seminar I attended I was appalled when a student pulled out a serrated tactical folder blade to show off. Why in the name of GOD would you carry that around? What possible need does it serve?

That doesn’t do you any favors – it automatically is a criminal act, a deliberate breaching of the law, and worse besides automatically elevates any actual situation where you may need self defense to the most extreme level.

What the hell was this guy going to do, pull it out in a club if someone spilt his pint? Was he worried masked Ninja’s were going to attack him? What kind of a stupid idiot walks around in this country with a tactical folding knife?

With that said - this guys was a really nice chap. Not a violent bone in his body and I don't think realistically he would ever pull that knife on someone - so why did he have it?

For my money, the same reason that a lot of guys carry knives - they think it's cool, they think it's dangerous and it's part of their identity culture. Is it a serious threat, in all likelyhood no - it's there to show there mates, not to stab you. So I really wouldn't worry about it to much.

Charlie3dan · 05-08-2008 02:10PM

But like how do i increase my odds

Well you started with good odds because from your experience the place was safe, it was bright and in a nice area.
You could have added to this further by having a number friends with you. But unfortunately what happened to you was random, not provoked, not oppotunistic, not motivated.
Now if you were wearing your gold shoes and dropping a trail of €20 notes behind you at the time, that decreased your odds because it would give these guys a reason to attack you rather than some other random person.

Call me an easy target so!I can understand it for people with family responsibilities, or women, but I really don't get it when I hear young, single guys talking about avoiding places or situations (I don't mean you Charlie3dan, just a general point). I for one will certainly not let some scummers stop me going where the hell ever I want.

I frequently walk alone at night through all sorts of dodgy areas, both in Ireland and abroad and long may it continue.

Hey that's up to you. Decrease your odds all ya want. I'm not gonna walk two hours outta my way if there's a dark alley that'll get me there in 15mins either. But if someone posts a video of either of us walking down "Stabber's Lane" and being stabbed, I wont expect the same levels of sympathy will you?

Baggio... · 05-08-2008 05:01PM

Boru. wrote: »

Again, not as many as the doom and gloom would make you think. I think it's safe to say that London would be worse of for knife crime than here. With that in mind, take a look at the following exert from my upcoming article...

Hi Boru,

If you go back to what I was saying earlier, you'll notice that I said pretty much the same things, be it in a more non-specific manner.

I stated that the chances of being attacked randomly are very very low. I also made the point that we were behind England when it comes to violent crime.

Then I said - if I was really worried about being attacked I'd be living in the South of France. So as you can see - I 'aint panicking just yet.

Just to add:
When I opened up my UC class down here in Kildare, the one thing which I found interesting was that all the guys who were coming, or interested in the class all believed that they needed to train in order to protect themselves. They had all expressed concern at Ireland's growing yob, gun and knife culture. So they felt there was a need to do some form of self-defense classes by themselves. None of my fliers EVER advertised through scare tactics, or hyperbole. It's just a self-protection and Combatives class.

My first students were all from Athy, and were no pushovers to be fair. After talking to them, they had all experienced some form of abuse (verbal and physical) frequently. So regardless of any stats (positive or negative), it was their belief that they needed, or had to train. Therefore through past experience they now see Ireland as being a more "violent society". Whether it's true or not is not all that important - that's their belief system and past experience has made it true for them.

If you grow up in a nice neighborhood, and have had the opportunity of living in a nice place - I'm sure you belief system will be very different form someone who grew up in an area where a lot of bad crap goes on.

A mate of mine grew up on a certain estate in South Co. Dublin (don't want to mention it, as it may offend some people). Every time we'd go and see him at his gaff we'd always see trouble in one form or another. Joy riding, burned out cars, syringes where kids were playing - the list goes on. We used to say, "why do you still live here man". "well, to be honest Rob, I can afford any where else" (remember the housing boom!).

I know the media whip people up into a frenzy - that's how the sell their papers. But as I said earlier, they just inflame the subject. These things do happen... (maybe not as frequently as the media would have you believe).

So, in my opinion, a persons views on violence are often relative to their past experiences. Are things getting worse? I personally think so - but as a skeptic I'll gladly change my mind, if and when, the figures come in.

Cheers,

R.

Baggio... · 05-08-2008 05:06PM

Clive wrote: »

I frequently walk alone at night through all sorts of dodgy areas, both in Ireland and abroad and long may it continue.

If I'm being honest I do this to. I'm like Clive I pretty much do what I want regardless of scummers. I do keep my eyes open though.

However, I'd NEVER tell any of my students to do that. I always tell them "avoid" the bad places. Its a case of "Do as I say, not as I do..."

(hey, I'm still a student to).

Baggio... · 05-08-2008 07:44PM

Boru. wrote: »

knife crime in Ireland had risen 300pc in four years. On the other is you work it out the chances of you being assaulted with a knife are less than 216,267 to 1. That means it is very, very unlikely you will be stabbed. So let’s not panic.

Just one thing on this stat. We can't be sure of it's context, and what it was measured against (is that for the average human?).

If so it doesn't say that much for me to be honest - even though I think that the chances of being in a "knife attack" are very low indeed.

You could easily manipulate that statistic to get another answer or increase the chances. Just by adding a few extra parameters such as:

1) People in high crime areas (including having to work in them)
2) People who would be considered "soft-targets".
3) Time of day (walking around late at night, etc.)
4) Adding drink/drugs to the equation
5) Hanging around with a bad crowd
6) Frequenting bad establishments
7) People that are naturally aggressive
8) People who have high risk occupations
9) People who have been injured with another type of weapon. It doesn't have to be a knife to cut, slash or stab.

These, of course are not a definitive list by any means. They are just some extra ideas to think about when looking at a set of stats. As opposed to blanketing everything with a "one size fits all approach".

Boru. · 06-08-2008 01:01AM

Good point Rob, perhaps I should clarify...The statistics quoted in the Independant article were the official numbers released by the Gardai press office and the criminal statistics department based on reported and documented incidents in the last 4 years in relation to knife crime.

The total of less than 216,267 to 1 was determined by same based upon the number of recorded incidents nationwide versus the current population as determined by the last census.

Whie I understand and appreciate the manipulative nature of statistics, I think it is important that when a given set of facts is cited that all inflections of those facts are considered. So yes, knife crime has increased by 300% in that given quotation, but taking that and only that in to account it is still a minor issue, by that same statistic. Leaving knife crime aside the overal crime has dropped, while media coverage of crime has increased. Frankly neither effects me. I don't read newspapers and try to avoid the news. There is little of value for me there save when writing an article on the realisitc chances of being involved in a kinfe fight that requires me to cite said statistics. As for crime - it happens. It's unlikely to happen to me, and I am confident in my own abilities and comfortable in my knowledge level should it do so. I have better chances of winning in the Millionaire lotto and much prefer to waste time thinking about that. ;-)

Baggio... · 06-08-2008 10:07AM

Boru. wrote: »

and much prefer to waste time thinking about that. ;-)

That's fair enough...

Believe it or not I much the same, I don't run around looking over my shoulders feeling paranoid - but as Lee says we try to cultivate "relaxed awareness". That way if we see something dodgy going on, we have a much better chance to take action (avoidance and escape, etc).

Cheers,

R.

ok so you try to evade an attack...

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