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7/1/08 to 13/1/08 Cold spell?

  • 03-01-2008 8:18am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭


    Didn't want to drag the other thread off topic but next week could be interesting with a cold North West wind.

    The Met are currently forecasting:
    . Present indications suggest that Tuesday will be very cold and very windy with widespread prolonged heavy showers

    They don't say showers of what though, anyone reading the charts in FI like to give an opinion?


«1

Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Giving an opinion on FI is like giving an opinion on leopordstown for the Easter races tbh.We can guess the runners and riders but they may not run at all.
    But for what it is worth,it looks cold for high ground way up north and north west but 5's 6's and 7's in celcius do not a snowy spell make.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Cold PM air is certainly capable of bringing snow. On Tuesday the country is in sub -5 air, a good bit below 528dam and very low temps to boot. Highs of 2 or 3C in the East, Midlands, North. Pleanty of heavy showers. Tuesday night sees an occlusion approach from the west turning to snow as it crosses the country. Certainly something to watch.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12z GFS is rolling in for this timeframe now....

    Any thoughts on the new run?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Well the 12Z looks like a good upgrade.
    NW snowrisk charts showing snow potential for virtually the whole country now.
    It's still FI but its looking good.....fingers crossed....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    a polar low would be most welcome from the gl direction. won't get my hopes up just yet over this event, though.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    I think high ground will see snow next Monday/Tuesday with sleet lower down, but it could change a hell of a lot before then and my opinion is based on novice model reading.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,910 ✭✭✭squonk


    Now that the mild stuf is starting to spoil the party for us all, what are the prospects for some more of the white stuff in the near future? I heard mention yesterday of some colder weather again around Tuesday. Is that still looking likely?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    There'd aleady a thread on this.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional North East Moderators Posts: 10,871 Mod ✭✭✭✭PauloMN


    There'd aleady a thread on this.

    Maybe post a link if that's the case?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    PauloMN wrote: »
    Maybe post a link if that's the case?
    Here is the thread being refered [thread=2055209910]here[/thread] which is on the same page as this one but i will merge them now anyway.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    its now looking like a 24 hour event of cold next tuesday or wednesday coming from the northwest. very unlikely to see snow here on the levels we just had last night. Maybe some snow showers in the northwest and north.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 793 ✭✭✭damoz


    who does everyone hope for snow? do we want crappy driving, cold feet and a big mess when it thaws an hour later....

    must be the child in us all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    its now looking like a 24 hour event of cold next tuesday or wednesday coming from the northwest. very unlikely to see snow here on the levels we just had last night. Maybe some snow showers in the northwest and north.

    24 hours is fine by me since it's rare we get snow events longer than 24 - 48 hours anyway. Even if it doesn't snow for the rest of the winter i'm content with todays snow. I got to see heavy snow that drifted - i don't get to see that very often.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I agree, its kept me well happy, i havent seen this much snow in my location for 16/17 years so I made sure to enjoy it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Tuesday still seems the best chance - or more so Tuesday night

    index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=52932

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

    This will chop and change over the next few days. Could get upgrades or downgrades.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Yeah I've been following that GFS run and it initially had Tuesday midday for widespread snowfall. Met.ie are not too optimistic:
    Probably less cold on Tuesday, but still windy with showers or longer spells of rain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Are these thickness values, the whole of Ireland covered in 504 to 508dam air! How cold would that be?
    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    well, going by the gf yesterday there was not going to be much snow today or last night. so hopefully they are wrong again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,512 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Polar maritime air though rather than modified polar continental, will need much lower dam's for any snow compared to last night, last nights snow was of a pretty rare (these days) setup.

    That said this winter has already been different to my mind that recent ones synoptically so who knows, in the 80's it wasnt uncommon to have more than one proper snowy spell in a winter, we're overdue a good one too.

    I'm choosing to be optimistic in snow starved Wicklow!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif <<< Very interesting - not for the type of weather that the day would bring mind you, but the development potential from there could bring a prolonged exceptional cold snowy spell.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    And a potential evolution... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif <<< looks juicy that one!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Danno wrote: »
    And a potential evolution... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif <<< looks juicy that one!

    Just a pity it's so deep in FI, would be nice though....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 761 ✭✭✭dedon


    Much chance of snow next week so????


  • Registered Users Posts: 336 ✭✭Damomanye


    I think Tuesday evening or Very early Wednesday morning would be the best chance for snow but it really is hit and miss.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think theres only a slight risk, it doesnt look like as if it will get bitterly cold but just cold, certainly I dont think we'll see a repeat performance of 6 inchs anywhere in the country this week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 53 ✭✭homosapien


    Hello to everyone in the weather forum I usually check in here every so often and these last few days been watching the comings and goings with great interest!

    the latest GFS prognosis looks interesting post Tuesday .there is the possibility of a northerly developing from a low stalling north-east of Scotland pulling in polar air around it..whether it can be sustained is another question...this is at +144 hrs..but something to keep an eye on.

    oh and the ECMWF output at 12GMT for +144hrs today is a corker too..could the milder atlantic air be drawn south around the secondary low over the English channel?? wishful thinking on my part I'd say!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Looks very good for Monday Midnight/Tuesday 6am according to the current charts. Areas north of the N6 should get a pasting according to todays 12z runs:

    Sub Zero dew points: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6010.png
    Below -5 upper air: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn602.png
    Sub 528dam: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn603.png
    Only 1c at Surface: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.png
    Precip and convection: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png
    Active Jet, though SWerly: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6015.png will cause sheer against upper winds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
    instability at source: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6011.png
    and finally:
    air pressure below 1010mb: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png
    :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 53 ✭✭homosapien


    if only the jet could veer south west of Ireland...might bring these depressions on a more southerly course and bring in the cold air from the north after them..will dew points be sufficient (coming off the sea) you think Danno to turn marginal snow to definite snow with the synoptics you have nicely catalogued there!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I think so, dew points below 0c are enough. Having said that though, Achill Island residents will not be blasted on the coast with snow, however, move 20-30 miles inland and quite a nice fall of snow should be had! -
    Sub Zero dew points: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5410.png
    Below -5 upper air: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn542.png
    Sub 528dam: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn543.png
    Only 1c at Surface: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5417.png
    Precip and convection: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn544.png
    Active Jet, though SWerly: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5415.png will cause sheer against upper winds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
    instability at source: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5411.png
    and finally:
    air pressure below 1010mb: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png
    :P

    re-posted to allow for the 18z run


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭Avns1s


    Met Eireann say heavy rain for Tue. No mention of snow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,689 ✭✭✭Darwin


    On the six one weather I thought I heard Gerry mention the possibility of wintry showers on Tuesday?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Watched the online version - nope, no mention, but for him to say so this far out would be quite astonishing! Alot of the *potential* snowfall from those charts would occur as part of showers, potent showers akin to Dec 29th 2000, where they come along and dump up to a half inch at a time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 53 ✭✭homosapien


    going by those Metcheck forecast's Danno it will be snowing in Tipperary late Tuesday whilst sleety rain will be splashing down in Laois...;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    LOL! I don't think weather respects borders that litteraly! I am highlighting this as I feel there is a 50-60% chance of this working out. I have seen very similar setups in February 1994 where it delivered substantial snow and again in Dec 2000.

    These showers if they occur are like squal lines crossing the country...


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Danno wrote: »

    Rofl.
    You do realise that met check dont "come on board".
    Their forecast is the current GFS run and they change it for every GFS run.
    So if Fantasy island GFS says theres going to be Tornado's in Portlaoise on the 27th of this month,you'll have that on met check.

    So really posting met check forecasts as a fact to support a theory is nonsense.

    Have a look at them now and they'll reflect this mornings run... and rain.

    All your other links reflect GFS's new position too including a 528 line way north of Ireland.
    Besides you's need a thickness of 520 or lower at a min for atlantic snow as the layer of air closer to the surface is too modified by the warm atlantic surface to support snow.

    Looking at GFS beyond 96hrs hrs(as you were doing 2 days ago) and getting excited about snow in marginal enough conditions is folly.

    Of course it may change out of no where but wheres the accuracy in FI GFS then...I'll tell you where ,touching the cloth of the rear end of my pants to be honest :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Could be a breezy one tonight for the nothern half of the country- Weather Warning just issued

    Issued at 06 January 2008 - 13:00
    Severe Weather Warning
    A deepening depression will pass close to the north coast overnight tracking eastwards. Westerly winds will increase strong to gale force overnight - mean 50 to 70 Km/h - and give damaging gusts of 110 to 130 Km/h in exposed places.
    The strongest winds are likely over Connaught, Ulster and north leinster, where some heavy thundery showers are likely, some wintry in the northwest.
    Valid from 2300 6/1/08 to 0900 7/1/08


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Could be a breezy one tonight for the nothern half of the country- Weather Warning just issued

    Issued at 06 January 2008 - 13:00
    Severe Weather Warning
    A deepening depression will pass close to the north coast overnight tracking eastwards. Westerly winds will increase strong to gale force overnight - mean 50 to 70 Km/h - and give damaging gusts of 110 to 130 Km/h in exposed places.
    The strongest winds are likely over Connaught, Ulster and north leinster, where some heavy thundery showers are likely, some wintry in the northwest.
    Valid from 2300 6/1/08 to 0900 7/1/08

    Might even be a bit worse than breezy:eek::D.
    I see they're forecasting wintry showers in Connaght, Ulster and Munster
    Connaght-Tonight
    Becoming stormy, with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h. Rain clearing to blustery, wintry showers. Risk of thunder.
    Ulster-Tonight
    Stormy tonight with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h. Very wet early tonight; heavy, wintry showers following. Cold, but too windy for frost.
    Munster-Tonight
    Becoming stormy, with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h. Rain clearing to blustery, wintry showers. Risk of thunder.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    trogdor wrote: »
    Might even be a bit worse than breezy:eek::D.
    I see they're forecasting wintry showers in Connaght, Ulster and Munster
    Connaght-Tonight
    Becoming stormy, with gusts of 110 to 130 km/h. Rain clearing to blustery, wintry showers. Risk of thunder.


    bring it on:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Rofl.
    Looking at GFS beyond 96hrs hrs(as you were doing 2 days ago) and getting excited about snow in marginal enough conditions is folly.

    The first time I posted links were in the 60hrs range - hardly FI :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Rofl.
    So really posting met check forecasts as a fact to support a theory is nonsense.

    Look again - I was posting those Metcheck's in response to Damomanye post #25. Metcheck's were for Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning.

    Any Forecast I was harping on about is for Monday Night/Tuesday Morning.

    Anything FI posted was at the time 216hrs out and was linked to just to show how an evolution can take place. Read back through my posts a bit more carefully in future please!

    Danno.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Danno wrote: »
    The first time I posted links were in the 60hrs range - hardly FI :rolleyes:
    Anything beyond 48hrs is FI tbh in GFS at the moment.
    Anything FI posted was at the time 216hrs out and was linked to just to show how an evolution can take place. Read back through my posts a bit more carefully in future please!
    Well you didn't seem to know that metchecks forecasts are from GFS and change with every run when you said they had come "on board" as you put it.
    They even have that as a qualifier on the bottom of each forecast page if you care to look...
    You also seemed to think that the 528 dam line coming in from the atlantic was significant,it's not.
    2 things had to be pointed out to you there in the "theory" you were putting foward.
    We can of course agree to disagree on how silly it is to rely on one run of the GFS to confidently predict weather.

    As for evolution,thats nonsense.You can't post a run and say this is going to evolve into x,y or z.
    It either will or it won't.
    Minus a time machine of course :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Danno wrote: »
    Looks very good for Monday Midnight/Tuesday 6am according to the current charts. Areas north of the N6 should get a pasting according to todays 12z runs:

    Also, I was being quite specific about where the risk laid, kinda like what is happening tonight here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055211895

    ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    You also seemed to think that the 528 dam line coming in from the atlantic was significant,it's not.

    Agreed - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png - even shows that above 528 can deliver snow to Mayo tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    As for evolution,thats nonsense.You can't post a run and say this is going to evolve into x,y or z.
    It either will or it won't.
    Minus a time machine of course :)

    But, I showed the two ECM runs from FI in two posts one right after the other - posts 21 and 22. These were showing how the ECM expected it to evolve, not me!!! Though the chart looked sweet! :D


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Danno wrote: »
    Look again - I was posting those Metcheck's in response to Damomanye post #25. Metcheck's were for Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning.
    no you posted them, he never mentioned metcheck untill you posted them (lol and you are telling me to read again :D) and you specefically refered to metcheck "coming on board" as a direct support for your theory which is why I thought you needed clarification on what those metcheck forecasts actually are.In order to be precise what you should have said was GFS has came on board but really and truly that would be saying the same thing twice and anyhow,I wouldn't be relying on one run in a marginal set up :)
    Agreed - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png - even shows that above 528 can deliver snow to Mayo tonight.
    Yeah but firstly my reply was in direct response to your about tuesday post and not tonight.I wasn't commenting on tonight at all untill now really.Knock airport is circa 800ft asl.Quite a number of roads in the area also traverse high ground or are immediately adjacent to it(which helps a lot in marginal situations),thats where most of the snow is.I wouldnt call it a pasting though.
    528 on it's own could not deliver that snow,it needs several other factors to come into play including a cold surface feed not sourced in the mid atlantic.
    Some of those factors have indeed came into play tonight up north eg a SE or east wind off a cold surface source turned what started as rain to wet snow.It took a while to do that as it was marginal and had it's work cut out for it to do that.Parts of inland ulster that remained cold all day after a frosty start.
    Castlederg for instance had a max of 2c today helpfully providing that surface cold feed.
    What happens later in this though is in the lap of the mixing thats going to occurr as a result of the stronger winds.

    (That chart above incidently is a projection for midnight not now)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Why would I post Metcheck T+76 and T+80 Pages to back up GFS T+54 and T+60 Charts :?

    The http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png chart shows(ed) the majority of NW Ireland to be outside of the sub 528 area, follow the isobar lines back to see where the sub 528 air is coming from, pretty safe to conclude that Sligo and Mayo were under air above 528 dam and still got snow this evening.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Danno wrote: »
    Why would I post Metcheck T+76 and T+80 Pages to back up GFS T+54 and T+60 Charts :?
    Uhm-why did you say it was "coming on board" if you knew it was just a mirror image of the GFS?
    The http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn123.png chart shows(ed) the majority of NW Ireland to be outside of the sub 528 area, follow the isobar lines back to see where the sub 528 air is coming from, pretty safe to conclude that Sligo and Mayo were under air above 528 dam and still got snow this evening.
    That chart shows monday.
    It's not monday yet.
    Also,thickness demarcations are often drawn in crazy shapes,you cant follow them in the same way as you can an isobar.
    LoL for example,you'd be forgiven for thinking that the light blue line there was drink driving.
    Someone go out and arrest it :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The GFS Output yet another chart since I posted last, hence I put in (ed) after shows! :D

    Here is tonights chart: http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn063.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Guys, guys............the 528 line is VERY important for snowfall. It is air thickness and generally needs to be below that level to bring snow to low levels. The 528 dam line generally denotes the -5 850 line. Danno is right on this occasion.:D


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