7/1/08 to 13/1/08 Cold spell?

Villain · 03-01-2008 9:18am #1

Didn't want to drag the other thread off topic but next week could be interesting with a cold North West wind.

The Met are currently forecasting:

. Present indications suggest that Tuesday will be very cold and very windy with widespread prolonged heavy showers

They don't say showers of what though, anyone reading the charts in FI like to give an opinion?

03-01-2008 10:32am

Giving an opinion on FI is like giving an opinion on leopordstown for the Easter races tbh.We can guess the runners and riders but they may not run at all.
But for what it is worth,it looks cold for high ground way up north and north west but 5's 6's and 7's in celcius do not a snowy spell make.

darkman2 · 03-01-2008 2:13pm

Cold PM air is certainly capable of bringing snow. On Tuesday the country is in sub -5 air, a good bit below 528dam and very low temps to boot. Highs of 2 or 3C in the East, Midlands, North. Pleanty of heavy showers. Tuesday night sees an occlusion approach from the west turning to snow as it crosses the country. Certainly something to watch.

maquiladora · 03-01-2008 5:11pm

12z GFS is rolling in for this timeframe now....

Any thoughts on the new run?

maquiladora · 03-01-2008 6:02pm

Well the 12Z looks like a good upgrade.
NW snowrisk charts showing snow potential for virtually the whole country now.
It's still FI but its looking good.....fingers crossed....

nacho libre · 03-01-2008 6:09pm

a polar low would be most welcome from the gl direction. won't get my hopes up just yet over this event, though.

Villain · 03-01-2008 8:27pm

I think high ground will see snow next Monday/Tuesday with sleet lower down, but it could change a hell of a lot before then and my opinion is based on novice model reading.

squonk · 04-01-2008 12:28pm

Now that the mild stuf is starting to spoil the party for us all, what are the prospects for some more of the white stuff in the near future? I heard mention yesterday of some colder weather again around Tuesday. Is that still looking likely?

maquiladora · 04-01-2008 12:35pm

There'd aleady a thread on this.

PauloMN · 04-01-2008 1:08pm

maquiladora wrote: »

There'd aleady a thread on this.

Maybe post a link if that's the case?

Snowbie · 04-01-2008 1:37pm

PauloMN wrote: »

Maybe post a link if that's the case?

Here is the thread being refered [thread=2055209910]here[/thread] which is on the same page as this one but i will merge them now anyway.

Gonzo · 04-01-2008 1:43pm

its now looking like a 24 hour event of cold next tuesday or wednesday coming from the northwest. very unlikely to see snow here on the levels we just had last night. Maybe some snow showers in the northwest and north.

damoz · 04-01-2008 2:28pm

who does everyone hope for snow? do we want crappy driving, cold feet and a big mess when it thaws an hour later....

must be the child in us all.

nacho libre · 04-01-2008 4:27pm

Gonzo wrote: »

its now looking like a 24 hour event of cold next tuesday or wednesday coming from the northwest. very unlikely to see snow here on the levels we just had last night. Maybe some snow showers in the northwest and north.

24 hours is fine by me since it's rare we get snow events longer than 24 - 48 hours anyway. Even if it doesn't snow for the rest of the winter i'm content with todays snow. I got to see heavy snow that drifted - i don't get to see that very often.

Gonzo · 04-01-2008 5:28pm

I agree, its kept me well happy, i havent seen this much snow in my location for 16/17 years so I made sure to enjoy it.

darkman2 · 04-01-2008 6:02pm

Tuesday still seems the best chance - or more so Tuesday night

index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=52932

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png

This will chop and change over the next few days. Could get upgrades or downgrades.

Darwin · 04-01-2008 6:47pm

Yeah I've been following that GFS run and it initially had Tuesday midday for widespread snowfall. Met.ie are not too optimistic:

Probably less cold on Tuesday, but still windy with showers or longer spells of rain.

Trogdor · 04-01-2008 7:11pm

Are these thickness values, the whole of Ireland covered in 504 to 508dam air! How cold would that be?
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF

nacho libre · 04-01-2008 7:16pm

well, going by the gf yesterday there was not going to be much snow today or last night. so hopefully they are wrong again.

Supercell · 04-01-2008 7:35pm

Polar maritime air though rather than modified polar continental, will need much lower dam's for any snow compared to last night, last nights snow was of a pretty rare (these days) setup.

That said this winter has already been different to my mind that recent ones synoptically so who knows, in the 80's it wasnt uncommon to have more than one proper snowy spell in a winter, we're overdue a good one too.

I'm choosing to be optimistic in snow starved Wicklow!

Danno · 04-01-2008 11:49pm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif <<< Very interesting - not for the type of weather that the day would bring mind you, but the development potential from there could bring a prolonged exceptional cold snowy spell.

Danno · 04-01-2008 11:51pm

And a potential evolution... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif <<< looks juicy that one!

maquiladora · 05-01-2008 1:20am

Danno wrote: »

And a potential evolution... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif <<< looks juicy that one!

Just a pity it's so deep in FI, would be nice though....

dedon · 05-01-2008 1:14pm

Much chance of snow next week so????

Damomanye · 05-01-2008 1:16pm

I think Tuesday evening or Very early Wednesday morning would be the best chance for snow but it really is hit and miss.

Gonzo · 05-01-2008 4:42pm

I think theres only a slight risk, it doesnt look like as if it will get bitterly cold but just cold, certainly I dont think we'll see a repeat performance of 6 inchs anywhere in the country this week.

homosapien · 05-01-2008 7:43pm

Hello to everyone in the weather forum I usually check in here every so often and these last few days been watching the comings and goings with great interest!

the latest GFS prognosis looks interesting post Tuesday .there is the possibility of a northerly developing from a low stalling north-east of Scotland pulling in polar air around it..whether it can be sustained is another question...this is at +144 hrs..but something to keep an eye on.

oh and the ECMWF output at 12GMT for +144hrs today is a corker too..could the milder atlantic air be drawn south around the secondary low over the English channel?? wishful thinking on my part I'd say!

Danno · 05-01-2008 8:34pm

homosapien · 05-01-2008 9:58pm

if only the jet could veer south west of Ireland...might bring these depressions on a more southerly course and bring in the cold air from the north after them..will dew points be sufficient (coming off the sea) you think Danno to turn marginal snow to definite snow with the synoptics you have nicely catalogued there!!

Danno · 05-01-2008 11:15pm

I think so, dew points below 0c are enough. Having said that though, Achill Island residents will not be blasted on the coast with snow, however, move 20-30 miles inland and quite a nice fall of snow should be had! -
Sub Zero dew points: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5410.png
Below -5 upper air: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn542.png
Sub 528dam: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn543.png
Only 1c at Surface: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5417.png
Precip and convection: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn544.png
Active Jet, though SWerly: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5415.png will cause sheer against upper winds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
instability at source: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn5411.png
and finally:
air pressure below 1010mb: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png
:P

re-posted to allow for the 18z run

Avns1s · 05-01-2008 11:23pm

Met Eireann say heavy rain for Tue. No mention of snow.

7/1/08 to 13/1/08 Cold spell?

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