Amber Snow Alert

17-02-2005 9:29am #1

Hi everybody.

I'm temporarally closing the current indications thread so all discussion on the now imminent cold snap to be had in here.

Discuss away to your hearts content.

Amber alert *may* be raised to Red before the end of the w/end

davej · 17-02-2005 9:43am

Sorry, maybe i'm missing something but where did you get this information from ?
From the content of your post you'd swear we were heading for an ice age.

"Red Alert", Can you explain what this term means exactly?

From rte:

3 Day Outlook:
Friday will be a mostly cloudy, breezy day with a fresh to strong westerly wind later veering west to northwest. There will be some rain at times, but it clear from the north during the evening. Frost likely Friday night. Saturday and Sunday will be brighter, but much colder days with sunny periods and a few scattered showers, some wintry in places.

davej

billy the squid · 17-02-2005 9:43am

how often do those GFS runs take place. I still seeing 00z images

17-02-2005 9:49am

davej wrote:

Sorry, maybe i'm missing something but where did you get this information from ?
davej

Yup you are slightly it seems

This is an internet discussion board for weather enthusiasts.
If you read the current indications sticky thread you will get a feel for this.
I am not going to comment on Met Éireanns forecast except to say , it will most likely be updated

but closer to the time frame we are discussing.

17-02-2005 10:00am

billy the squid wrote:

how often do those GFS runs take place. I still seeing 00z images

For to get them post haste you would have to pay for premium services

Oh and for clarity purposes, the risk of snow fall at this stage in Eastern counties from Sunday night onwards is in my view amber ie I think it will be just about cold enough for snow to settle.
It's impossible at this stage to pin down the detail as to precipitation but with winds turning north East and possibly Easterly, very cold air is looking likely to be sucked close to us.
Snow showers are likely especially in the North and East but not guaranteed at this stage.

(and yes weathercheck I guess I have the ramping gloves off now-def con 4 though not any higher yet

)

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 10:01am

davej wrote:

Sorry, maybe i'm missing something but where did you get this information from ?
From the content of your post you'd swear we were heading for an ice age.

"Red Alert", Can you explain what this term means exactly?

From rte:

3 Day Outlook:
Friday will be a mostly cloudy, breezy day with a fresh to strong westerly wind later veering west to northwest. There will be some rain at times, but it clear from the north during the evening. Frost likely Friday night. Saturday and Sunday will be brighter, but much colder days with sunny periods and a few scattered showers, some wintry in places.

davej

met.ie

3 Day Outlook:
Apart from isolated showers near north coasts, Friday night will be mostly dry but cold in a brisk northwest wind. A sharp frost will form in sheltered inland areas. Saturday will be a cold bright day with sunshine and good dry spells, but scattered wintry type showers will affect some areas - especially north coasts later in the day. Winds will veer north while staying fresh. After a widespread and sharp frost on Saturday night, Sunday will be a very cold day with variable cloud and some sunshine, but showers will develop again and many will be of hail or sleet. The first half of next week will be cold with frosty nights and wintry showers by day.

17-02-2005 10:12am

Expect constant changes even in that Felix.
For instance this morning at 755 on radio one Evelyn Cusack mentioned heavy wintry showers in northern and Eastern areas in the first half of the week.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:13am

Hello all

Well what can i say these are quite simply the best charts
i have EVER seen

Not only are we entering a cold snap but a prolonged freeze my friends :eek:

Present indications suggest upto and over 8-10 days of this

So what does it all mean?

Daytime temperatures getting upto around 3 or 4c at a maximum,
hard frosts lasting through the day, moderate and sometimes heavy
snow showers hugging eastern coasts, also thrown into the back are
the prospects for more prolonged periods of snow. Eyes on the possible
prolonged spell of snow are on Monday where a little feature developes
to the west of Ireland and should deliver a pasting to eastern counties.

Im not feeling the best this morning otherwise i'd crash the board
with all my posts

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 10:18am

Earthman wrote:

Expect constant changes even in that Felix.
For instance this morning at 755 on radio one Evelyn Cusack mentioned heavy wintry showers in northern and Eastern areas in the first half of the week.

true. Looking forward to the Sunday evening forecast!

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 10:18am

Felix it will be the classic upgrading that goes on in any
weather organization, by tomorrow they'll mentions snow
and so on so on..

At the moment i wouldnt think there'd be much snow in the west
until maybe Tuesday onwards but in the east from Saturday
night onwards. Small amounts at first before possible longer
prolonged periods of snow on a bitter easterly wind. It will really
feel bitter out there, i hope people are prepared for it because it's
a cold spell worse than many have probably seen for at least 4 years

Remember Earthman we were posting fantasy dream posts about
an Easterly earlier this winter

:eek:

DMC · 17-02-2005 10:23am

This does look good.

Earthman, what are the chances of 1982 proportions, this far out from early next week? February 1982 was thee classic freeze for the eastern half, and nothing since can compare with it. Drifts, navvy shovels, the works!

billy the squid · 17-02-2005 10:24am

Im not feeling the best this morning otherwise i'd crash the board
with all my posts

dont look at the T+384 GFS until your feeling better might do more harm to your health dthan good its FI and back again several times

17-02-2005 10:24am

Weathercheck wrote:

Remember Earthman we were posting fantasy dream posts about
an Easterly earlier this winter :eek:

Well I dont know whether its my fantasy now

That said, I would urge any amatuer forecasters not to be issueing warnings about public safety with this-Leave that to the professionals please.

The specefic details of what is going to happen are not pinned down yet-all I will say is that the air source heading this way is from western Russia(last time I looked) now that could change or veer slightly.Theres also an intense pool of cold over Norway thats been to the Oslo Bord Fáilte office and has asked what the Guinness is like

17-02-2005 10:33am

DMC wrote:

This does look good.

Earthman, what are the chances of 1982 proportions, this far out from early next week? February 1982 was thee classic freeze for the eastern half, and nothing since can compare with it. Drifts, navvy shovels, the works!

Impossible to say-I'll have more time to investigate further later.
If the air from my last post gets here then the Irish sea could churn some whoppers into you.
It's well capable-unfortunately in recent years any cold has came from northerlies and the Irish sea showers have headed for wales.
With an Easterly theres no dragons for them this time

Blooming work

Darwin · 17-02-2005 10:35am

Im not feeling the best this morning otherwise i'd crash the board
with all my posts

LOL @ weathercheck...we are spared the emoticon overload.

full forward · 17-02-2005 10:38am

I hope the ESB call off their strike for this weekend....

http://www.breakingnews.ie

Power cuts likely as ESB technicians mount strike action
17/02/2005 - 8:51:43 AM

Power cuts are likely in some parts of the country this weekend due to planned industrial action by ESB technicians.

The workers, members of the TEEU, are expected to refuse to carry out repairs between tomorrow and Monday as part of a dispute over the position of worker-director Joe LaCumbre.

Mr LaCumbre, who is also ESB deputy chairman, has claimed he was effectively dismissed from the position due to a row with the chairman, Tadhg O’Donoghue, over the company’s €511m pension deficit.

It is unclear if any efforts are being made to avert the planned strike action.

davej · 17-02-2005 10:42am

Earthman wrote:

This is an internet discussion board for weather enthusiasts.

Ok sorry for posting

From your own charter:

It is a place for all things meteorology related and a home for enthusiasts and newbies alike to the subject.

Having said that, I have learned something. I've had a look at the GFS charts and they seem interesting. I won't clog up your thread with any more off topic stuff

davej

17-02-2005 11:02am

Ah Dave sometimes I hate the internet because the written word contains so much less than the spoke.
By what I said, if I was actually having voice communications with you-weather enthusiasts are talking out in the open here about a probable interesting event.
And we do answer questions aswell as welcome noobs

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 11:23am

Excellant 6z GFS

Winds Shifting Northeasterly
http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn841.gif

Feeling damn cold maxima around 5c in the far west
and light snow showers hugging the east with temperatures
of around 1 or 2c

Dreaming or what!

I'll be issuing an update on my thoughts later so beware

:eek:

And to people who are just watching from the background.

We are heading into a 7 day or more freeze...
No petty 1 day cold snap this is the proper cold right out of
the 80's textbook. Snow in the east with bitter temperatures
and chances of prolonged snow also. It's all starting late Saturday
and lasting all the way through next week and possibly further :eek:

infact the mean ensemble goes for a 12 day freeze

I also wonder what are weather will be like after this cold
spell!? The weather pattern will be completely shifted with
the azores high killed off and the atlantic full of little
LP's, this summer if i was predicting that far ahead could be a washout

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 11:29am

I really cant believe what is happening :eek:

I really have dreamt of charts like these..these
are nearly like the ones from the archives which
i look at and drool :eek:

This is the real crap folks

http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

And i dont think i'll be going to school much next week

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 11:32am

:eek: :eek:

Living a dream?

http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

I damn hope so

Infact we may just get sick of it

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 11:45am

English MetO early warning

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland, Eastern Scotland, South West Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West England, North East England, The Midlands, Wales, South West England, Central Southern England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 09:56 on Thursday, 17 February 2005.
This is the first warning of disruption due to Heavy Snow and Ice.
Colder weather over the weekend is a prelude to more persistent snow and icy conditions and risk of disruption across southern and eastern Britain for next week. This early warning captures the wintry transition this weekend, focusing on the initial potential disruption from snow and ice. A further early warning will be issued this weekend to cover likely disruption next week.
On Saturday, scattered sleet or snow showers are likely in northern and eastern coastal parts, more particularly upland areas, and less confidently parts of Wales and the southwest of England but the threat of disruption is low.
Sunday, snow showers will begin to extend further inland across England from the east coast, with the risk of outbreaks of more persistent snow spreading across much of England and Wales during Monday, possibly also affecting eastern and southern Scotland and eastern Northern Ireland. Local accumulations of 3-5cm are likely across much of England and Wales, with 5-10cm possible in upland parts exposed to the northeasterly winds. Monday morning appears particularly at risk and is considered the most likely to bring widespread dangerous driving conditions and disruption to transport services.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 09:56 on Thursday 17 February

This warning will be updated around 0900 tomorrow Friday 18th February For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 09:56 on Thursday 17 February

looking good for eastern counties

kleefarr · 17-02-2005 11:51am

Could any of you pros' please tell me what the weather is likely to be like at Dub airport o Wednesday morning. I'm supposed to be flying to Naples. :eek:
Surely it won't be bad enough to affect flights will it?

Mothman · 17-02-2005 11:51am

Weathercheck wrote:

Im not feeling the best this morning otherwise i'd crash the board
with all my posts

LOL wouldn't that be just most ironic.

Feets of snow and you too sick........

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 11:56am

Now now Mothman i'd get around it somehow

I aint that bad or i wouldnt be typing this

Wednesday Morning..flying..

Well i reckon the flight will go but there will be delays for
clearing the runway etc.. But putting detail on wednesday
is difficult you couldnt rule out temporary blizzards throughout
next week so keep watching

Here's Wednesday's chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1561.gif

Very cold maxima around 1 or 2c in the east, periods of heavy
snow on a bitter easterly wind

kleefarr · 17-02-2005 11:59am

Weathercheck wrote:

Now now Mothman i'd get around it somehow
I aint that bad or i wouldnt be typing this

Wednesday Morning..flying..

Well i reckon the flight will go but there will be delays for
clearing the runway etc.. But putting detail on wednesday
is difficult you couldnt rule out temporary blizzards throughout
next week so keep watching

Here's Wednesday's chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1561.gif

Very cold maxima around 1 or 2c in the east, periods of heavy
snow on a bitter easterly wind

:eek: :eek: thanks, I think. Keeping fingers crossed.
One upside though, apparently today they brought in new compensation payment regulations for delayed flights etc.

billy the squid · 17-02-2005 12:04pm

nice to see your still standing after that run weather check i was expecting this to finnish you off. (by the way that chart is off in fairyland before anyone gets excited about it.

its looking nice though Im not making any predictions as I am not qualified, but nice none the less.

17-02-2005 12:23pm

kleefarr wrote:

Could any of you pros' please tell me what the weather is likely to be like at Dub airport o Wednesday morning. I'm supposed to be flying to Naples. :eek:
Surely it won't be bad enough to affect flights will it?

at this stage it's hard to say.
All I'm reasonably confident of is showers hitting the East coast.
These are a hit and miss affair, some may get lots and some may get few or none.
I couldnt predict disruption on wenesday this far out.
But if I was flying on monday, tuesday or wenesday I would be concerned because you know what they are like out there... even an inch of snow/ice and theres delays.
God help us if we lived in Eastern Canada.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 12:49pm

Me like

Me Like

http://129.13.102.67/pics/brack3a.gif

:eek:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/brack4a.gif

Smiley overload

Earthman what are your honest feeling about the charts
worse than 2001??

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 12:58pm

I aint begrudging this one for Sunday either
http://129.13.102.67/pics/brack2a.gif

17-02-2005 1:12pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Earthman what are your honest feeling about the charts
worse than 2001??

They look very similar to February 1991 iirc
We got about 8 inches of snow here that time from heavy Irish sea showers.
And some of those were total white outs that would put the Xmas snow to shame.
This is only a week later so that makes no difference.
In short, theres a very good chance of significant snow from this if the charts continue like this which they mightnt.

Incidently the hit and miss of 91 meant Dublin got a lot less than us that time.
That cold snowy snap only lasted a few days though.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 2:38pm

6z Ensembles coming out and not good at all :mad: :mad:
-
-
-
-
--
-

--
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

The cold spell only lasting for 8 or 9 days it would seem

:rolleyes:

:eek:

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 2:40pm

An alright amount of precip too averaging out at
about 2-4mm a day equating to about 5-7cm's
of snow

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 2:47pm

Seems to be a lot of negativity about still on TWO etc with regards to just how cold it will be to produce snow. Or is this normal for the particular individuals? Also talk of little precip around.

17-02-2005 3:09pm

Felixdhc wrote:

Seems to be a lot of negativity about still on TWO etc with regards to just how cold it will be to produce snow. Or is this normal for the particular individuals? Also talk of little precip around.

BBC forecasters are kicking into over drive today.I have BBC one South here via sky digital and their forecaster talked of 0 or sub zero by day there at sealevel and with plenty of snow cover.
Of course there will be some pesimists on TWO-they are looking for too much-theres plenty of optimism there too.
Also many had their fingers burnt by similar charts a few weeks ago.
TWO is big enough though to have a wide range of opinions.
What I'm mainly interested in is as much reality as possible.
Fantasy island forecasts dont interest me that much.

Speaking of TWO though, the funniest comment I read on there recently was some guy saying his local dj on the radio was talking about next weeks freeze and he said " Girls you're going to have to wear your knickers"

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:46pm

Slightly off thread:

What happened to the thread I kicked off last night at 1800z???

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:49pm

Ah, found it! It was in the Current Indications Thread!

Thought I started a new thread for it though!

Danno · 17-02-2005 3:51pm

Rightio, across the internet, various forums, weather websites and official Met Offices have been taking a cautious, but collective agreement on the quite likely development of a substantial cold spell developing across North Western Europe over the weekend and on into next week

But, as we all know, these are UK websites and generally do not include Ireland in issuing forecasts, or don't do so in any great detail.

So, how will this cold event unfold, how will it affect Ireland?

Well, here are my thoughts and opinions:

Friday sees a cold front hovering across the centre of Ireland bringing drizzle and the odd pocket of heavy rain especially to E areas.

This front will push south later into the night, but as it does so, I expect an intense burst of rain over the East, and with cold air already in the north, this cuts in to the rain band and could give sleety conditions for a time.

Into Saturday, and a cold N wind takes over, giving wintry showers to N and NE coasts.

But it is later on on Sunday, when we see a NE coming into line, and a trough of showers will cross N Cenrtal UK, and picking up more steam over the Irish sea. Late in Sunday evening, I expect this line to push over much of Eastern Ireland and into the midlands bringing snowfall for most areas.

Monday sees a repeat performance, but with overcast conditions, the cold will stay in and very little thawing will take place. I expect rather cloudy and flurry style conditions to persist for some days after.

The NW, W and SW will not have much snowfall, and it might not be cold enough there for some. They will enjoy more crisp cool and sunny conditions as they will be closer to the high pressure.

More Later!

magpie · 17-02-2005 3:56pm

Going to Spar to buy canned goods.

17-02-2005 3:57pm

Danno,
We've moved on to discussing the expected icy snowy spell of next week in this thread.
All posts regarding that will be here.
As will reports of weather coming from it ie sleet hail or snow from sunday onwards.
I will temporally close rain or shine for that period also, but it remains open for now of course.

Danno · 17-02-2005 4:09pm

OK! Hard to keep up with it all! It is unfolding quickly!

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 4:19pm

Earthman wrote:

BBC forecasters are kicking into over drive today.I have BBC one South here via sky digital and their forecaster talked of 0 or sub zero by day there at sealevel and with plenty of snow cover.
Of course there will be some pesimists on TWO-they are looking for too much-theres plenty of optimism there too.
Also many had their fingers burnt by similar charts a few weeks ago.
TWO is big enough though to have a wide range of opinions.
What I'm mainly interested in is as much reality as possible.
Fantasy island forecasts dont interest me that much.

Speaking of TWO though, the funniest comment I read on there recently was some guy saying his local dj on the radio was talking about next weeks freeze and he said " Girls you're going to have to wear your knickers"

I suppose from the past flops I get worried when I read the negative views now rather then getting excited when reading the past positive ones! - but yes, plenty of optimism there too. I suppose I tend to feel that they all want snow and if some are saying its not likely because x, y & z well then maybe they are the ones being more realistic to the outcome (think i'm reading into this too much)

Saw that comment, very good. Could imagine Gerry Ryan saying that too!

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 4:53pm

Felix i can tell you that this is not going to flip now

We are set for at least a 5 day freeze and indications
suggest something towards 10 days :eek:

This will be a cold spell like none that we have seen in recent
years and no doubt there will be widespread distruption. Maxima
will struggle to 2 or 3 by day with lots of snow showers about
and more prolonged stuff. The length of the cold spell will also
take many by surprise

This is it folks a cold spell coming up that could beat 2001
and probably a once in a decade event for the east coast.

I'll be staking up on a few essentials at the weekend

Because **IF** we were hit by a blizzard on the east coast
next week which is possible then things could get nasty.

The weather forecaster i reckon just cant believe what has
been placed before them. Charts they look at that look
exactly like those from the 80's!

So getting ready Ireland winters a coming :eek:

Scubadevils · 17-02-2005 5:49pm

OK, I'll stop doubting and get excited

billy the squid · 17-02-2005 6:09pm

was hoping for better things to come out of the 12z but its still good.

Supercell · 17-02-2005 7:42pm

All I can say is some people here seem to be getting totally carried away with this..it is in no way comparable to an 80's cold spell!!
I expect Monday through to maybe Thursday to be cold..with daytime maxima above freezing (at sea leval) with small accumulations ie 1-2 cm..
80's would be about a week of "ice-days" or more, and 10-15 cm at sea leval and much higher at elevation ..neither of which looks likely at the moment.

Ray777 · 17-02-2005 8:00pm

Carried away? That's an understatement. My guess is that it'll be quite chilly this weekend. We might even get a light sprinkling of snow. I won't be stocking up on tinned food. I'll just stick the central heating on.

By monday, I could be eating my words. If I am, I'll eat my hat.

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:06pm

TV3 news predicting snow for monday! But Metcheck is only giving a 10% to 20% chance of snow for the east cost on sunday and monday.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2005 8:26pm

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

Villain · 17-02-2005 8:29pm

Weathercheck wrote:

TV3 = lot of

TV3 are well to be generous poor at forecasting

Very very good tonight snow showers will dump around
5cm's daily in the east

What about metchecks percentages??

seamus · 17-02-2005 8:31pm

Don't eat amber snow.

Snow was cool on Christmas day, but not now, and certainly not during the week. I've to drive to work....

Amber Snow Alert

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