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Decentralisation

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,607 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    By "Dublin mindset" I mean the arrogant view that the Government should favour Dublin all the time over the regions in terms of encouraging multinationals to set up there and regional development. It has been going on for far too long and has resulted in many areas outside of Dublin being ignored. It is ridiculous that Wexford should have an unemployment rate stuck in the bad old days of 9%, while Dublin's is just 2%. I hope decentralisation will help the economic-development of regions like mine, whatever Derek McDowell make think about "dingy pubs" outside of Dublin.
    I'm perfectly aware what "Dublin mindset" means, thanks. I'm just amazed that you're not aware that a corner of the country on the sea isn't considered being on or at the periphery of that country, even if you live in it. Pointless discussing that, it's not what the thread is about - decentralisation is by its very nature about more than one small area of the country.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    smccarrick wrote:
    Once again, as I mentioned previously on this thread- please research your data before throwing totally wild assumptions up in the air as fact- when, as you plainly see, it just is not the case..........

    Ummm....I should point something out here....

    You list the numbers of unemployed, and the national percentage of unemployed people per region.

    Unless there's some magic mathematical system involved here that I don't know about , its impossible to determine the percentage unemployment rates, (nor even comparative unemployment rates) for both areas from the in-post information, nor from the information in the PDF that you have printed.

    Without information on the size of the eligible work force in both areas (or just the employment figures), there is simply no way of determining the unemployment rates.

    Dublin has - as you say - 26% of the unemployed. However, if its population is greater than 26% of the nations (which I believe it is), then it is definitely below the national unemployment average....which means its not unlikely that it is somewhere not-too-distant from what arcade was saying. I'd put it at about 3% at a guess.

    Meanwhile, Wexford listed in your figures as having 7,000 unemployed, but with a population of just over 18,000. Now clearly, those figures don't gel, but it is suggestive that Wexford is some sort of above-average-unemployment spot (which I believe it is).

    So while you may be correct that arcade is pulling his 9% and 2% figures out of the air....neither your maths nor your supplied figures show that, nor do they allow the actual figures to be calculated.

    jc

    <edited for stupid mistakes>


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,791 ✭✭✭jd


    bonkey wrote:

    Last census, Wexford County had a population of 116,000, and the town a population of about 18k (ignore what they give for the borough council area).

    I'm not sure what is the size of the labour force in Wexford County .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    i don't think smccarrick was attempting to compare like with like - i believe the point was the simple fact that based on CSO figures there are a hell of a lot more unemployed people in Dublin than in Wexford.

    Irrespective of this, smccarrick's "figures from thin air" point stands.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    jd wrote:
    Last census, Wexford County had a population of 116,000, and the town a population of about 18k (ignore what they give for the borough council area).

    Ah. Ok. My bad.

    I still stand by the point I was making, which is that if you're gonna say that someon is pulling numbers out of the air, you should supply the numbers which actually show it.

    jc


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    bonkey wrote:
    Ah. Ok. My bad.

    I still stand by the point I was making, which is that if you're gonna say that someon is pulling numbers out of the air, you should supply the numbers which actually show it.

    jc
    Shouldn't the onus be on the person quoting the figures to provide their sources?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    pete wrote:
    i don't think smccarrick was attempting to compare like with like - i believe the point was the simple fact that based on CSO figures there are a hell of a lot more unemployed people in Dublin than in Wexford.

    There are a hell of a lot more employed people in Dublin too, so I fail to see what relevance that point would have.

    Dublin, in the last census is listed as having approx 1,123,000 inhabitants. Wexford as having 116,600.

    By an approximate bit of math, one would expect Wexford to have 1/10 (.1)the unemployment numbers as Dublin does. This is not the case - it has about 2/13 (.166) the unemployment numbers of Dublin .

    Some quick math later, and we can therefore conclude that Wexford has just over 1.5 times the unemployment rate of Dublin. So - not the 4x that arcade was saying, but still an appreciable difference...assuming that the areas referred to in both documents are the same, and that neither town has an unusual density of non-working-force populace.
    Irrespective of this, smccarrick's "figures from thin air" point stands.

    As I said...he may be correct, but he didn't show why arcade's figures were out of thin air...he showed somewhat related figures, did some calcualtions, and claimed that they showed more than they did.

    jc


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    pete wrote:
    Shouldn't the onus be on the person quoting the figures to provide their sources?

    Look - how many times do I have to explain this.

    If smcCarrick said "I'm ignoring your figures until you provide references for them", then yes indeed, the onus would be on arcade.

    If he had provided figires that actually showed arcade was wrong in his assertion, then there would be no problem.

    I simply pointed out that he dismissed figures by providing information which does not refute what he was dismissing.

    Face it...its the type of tactic that you'd jump all over arcade for if he used it....

    jc


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    bonkey wrote:
    There are a hell of a lot more employed people in Dublin too, so I fail to see what relevance that point would have.

    Consider the context arcadegame2004 was using his 'statistics' - Wexford has 9% unemployment, Dublin has 2%, therefore 10,000 jobs should be removed from Dublin. What that wonderful piece of logic leaves out is the fact that Dublin has a far higher actual number of unemployed than Wexford.

    As I said...he may be correct, but he didn't show why arcade's figures were out of thin air...

    I would contend that it's because arcadegame2004 didn't provide any sources for his figures. As it happens, I seem to recall seing the 9% figure mentioned in a south-east newspaper from a couple of years ago, but i've no idea what the current statistics are like. And I'm guessing neither does the original poster.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    bonkey wrote:
    Look - how many times do I have to explain this.

    To me?

    Just the once.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ishmael whale


    By "Dublin mindset" I mean the arrogant view that the Government should favour Dublin all the time over the regions in terms of encouraging multinationals to set up there and regional development. It has been going on for far too long and has resulted in many areas outside of Dublin being ignored. It is ridiculous that Wexford should have an unemployment rate stuck in the bad old days of 9%, while Dublin's is just 2%. I hope decentralisation will help the economic-development of regions like mine, whatever Derek McDowell make think about "dingy pubs" outside of Dublin.

    Apart from the statement that Wexford has a high unemployment rate, Arcadegame's post is utterly at variance with reality. Dublin grows despite efforts to attract jobs elsewhere. The extract below about how the jobs in eBay were nearly lost to the country is illustrative of this.

    Substantial grants are offered to companies to locate in the regions. Other instruments through which regional policy has been forwarded include bankrupting An Post with a regional office network it doesn’t need, wasting resources on hugely uneconomic rail services and regional airports, and constraining the development of air services to Dublin with the ludicrous Shannon stopover.

    Substantial efforts are made to move resources to the regions. They fail, and not because of a ‘Dublin’ mindset, but because of a parochial mindset that prevents any regional centre developing the necessary economies of scale to attract investment. The national spatial strategy attempted to address this issue to some extent.The proposed decentralisation simply ignores that strategy and repeats the mistakes of the past.

    A few extra jobs decentralised to Wexford will make no significant impact on that county’s fortune. Hundreds of jobs in the EPA and Department of Agriculture have already been decentralised there, obviously to little avail.

    What keeps the country going is the wealth generated in Dublin, supplemented by a few other centres, and efforts are made to share this wealth about. The main reason that we don’t have more regional development is because those efforts are too heavily influenced by the parochial approach taken by many regional development advocates, not because of a ‘Dublin mindset’.


    http://weblog.techno-culture.com/2003/09/16.html#a2769
    “………… Ireland nearly lost this important and high-profile project when both the IDA and government tried to strong-arm eBay into going to a rural location (reportedly Athlone, in today's reports), something which drove them to a serious and nearly exit-stage-left level of annoyance and frustration. Reports today are that the company will get a smaller grants package and go where it wanted to: Dublin…………”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,165 ✭✭✭enda1


    Exactly. Wexford is an economic blak spot in the country. Fierce trade unions and as above worker militancy discourage large foreign or even Irish companies from setting up there. Also it is not always the governments job to sort out social problems. Wexford people have to sort some of it out themselves.

    Wexford also has low secondary school completion rates and low third level participation rates. There is litttle other than government grants and rosslare harbour to encourage a company there (especially the highly skilled pharmacutical and blue chipped companies).


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Ok-

    From the quarterly national household surveys from the CSO:

    http://www.cso.ie/publications/labour/qnhs.pdf

    Employment Participation rate: 59.8%

    (that is the % of the population of over 15 years of age actively engaged in employment (current number of people in the labour market = a little over 3 million)

    Total in Employment: 1,836,200

    Total Unemployed: 84,200

    Population of Dublin: 1,122,821

    Percentage of labour force in Dublin: 31.48%

    Population of Wexford: 116,596

    Unemployment in Dublin: 44,953 (53.4% of total)

    Unemployment in Wexford: 7,031 (8.3% of total)

    Percentage unemployment in Dublin: 3.4%

    Percentage unemployment in Wexford: 4.6%

    National unemployment rate: 4.6%

    Highest unemployment area: Border areas – 6.6%


    S.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,406 ✭✭✭arcadegame2004


    Unemployment in Wexford: 7,031 (8.3% of total)

    Oh dear...0.7% wrong!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭cyclopath2001


    I think we should have some sympathy for ArcadeGame and the plight of Wexford, but it's sad that he's been taken in by the relocation scam & the unsupported claims for its benefit.

    The debate is too often skewed away from the fact that the neither the costs nor the benefits of the government decision are known & probably never will be.

    It must be recognised that it's not right that Dublin public servants should be singled out to solve, at personal expense, the problems of Wexford.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 167 ✭✭uncivilservant


    Oh dear...0.7% wrong!

    Hardly. You seem to be quoting the wrong figure.

    Try again, and if the sums are too complex just call.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Oh dear...0.7% wrong!

    Nope:

    Unemployment rate in Wexford = 4.6%
    Unemployment rate in Dublin = 3.4%

    The highest unemployment rate in the country is not in Wexford- its in Monaghan, and its 6.6%, not the 9% you are quoting.

    I would also draw your attention to something you have to take into account when working your stats- different labour force participation rates in different parts of the country. I.e. You are only unemployed, if not gainfully employed but currently seeking employment. If you are neither employed, nor actively seeking such employment, you are not considered unemployed. Thus 64% of the population of Dublin is considered to be part of the labour force, while the figure is 53% for Wexford (reflecting larger numbers of single people and households with both partners employed in Dublin than in Wexford). This can be a matter of either economic necessity or choice- and is not quantified by the CSO.

    To ignore factors such as the above when analysing the labour force participation rate, is meaningless.

    I'd also be very curious to see where you are getting your figure of 9% unemployment from- as I am unable to find it in official sources. Note: the nos. of unemployed quoted by the CSO for Wexford- are for the entire county (i.e. the 7,031 unemployed people is all those signing on at Wexford, Gorey, Enniscorthy and New Ross) (and are broken down by town) not just for Wexford itself- the figure for Wexford town itself is in fact 2,715)

    Read the figures again in the two links I quoted.

    S. McCarrick


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ishmael whale


    Apparently an early retirement scheme for public servants is being introduced (which, the press release says, should not be confused with an early retirement scheme – em). Encouraging early retirement is certainly a novel approach to the looming pensions crisis.

    Why the need to persist in incurring costs to continue a decentralisation policy so devoid of merit?

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=2612&CatID=1&StartDate=1+January+2004&m=n

    “McCreevy Announces Further Public Service Pension Reform
    ……
    Introduction of cost-neutral early retirement: A facility to allow public servants to retire (from age 50/55, as appropriate) with actuarially reduced superannuation benefits. This facility will be made available, immediately, to serving staff and the option will be extended to staff who resigned with an entitlement to preserved superannuation benefits as and from 1 April 2004. This facility should not be confused with a Voluntary Early Retirement Scheme, similar to that which existed in the public service in the 1980s.
    ……………”


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Apparently an early retirement scheme for public servants is being introduced (which, the press release says, should not be confused with an early retirement scheme – em). Encouraging early retirement is certainly a novel approach to the looming pensions crisis.

    Why the need to persist in incurring costs to continue a decentralisation policy so devoid of merit?
    ……”

    Actually- this is different from "Early Retirement" in the traditional public sector sense- in that superannuation benefits would be reduced by an actuarial table with an ammended CCOPS formula. While someone who retires at 50 would have another 15 years to go to age 65, they would not necessarily receive the 5/8's pension a reduction of 15 years in draw down date would entail, but a smaller sum, to be decided by a revised common actuarial figure- to take into account of their obviously much longer life expectancy...... ok maybe I could have phrased that a bit better- but you get the picture.....

    Traditionally (aka the previous Early Retirement scheme in the 80's) when someone was retiring early and being allowed draw their pension early- their entitlement was actually topped up with X number of years, so their final pension figure was more closely aligned with what they would expect, had they 40 years of service (the compulsary amount for a full civil service pension).

    There were other manners of topping this up- particularly for the higher grades (and anyone who entered the service as a graduate) whereby they were (and indeed still are) entitled to claim "Professional Added Years" to take into account the fact that they have relevant experience to their jobs gained prior to entry to the service (* Note: this option is not open to the vast bulk of civil servants, who did not enter the service as graduates, regardless of the fact that they may subsequently have gained many acedemic distinctions, while in the employ or on leave from the service).

    So- technically, the announcement is correct- it will not have a draw on pensions- over the long term, it is in fact cost neutral- as the revised actuarial tables will reduce pensions people may claim. From that perspective- it may not be all that clever as a ploy to get rid of a few people- if they feel their drop in income would not be sustainable- regardless of what the relative merits of retiring at age 50 may seem to a general member of the public.

    S.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,791 ✭✭✭jd


    Apparently an early retirement scheme for public servants is being introduced

    Where my dad was working , most of the technicians have gone for erarly retirement, which means that most of the research programs and analysis work cannot be done, no matter what the reseach scientists require. These blanket programs are nuts, they are probably more attractive to the more highly skilled.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ishmael whale


    Smccarrick

    Am I right in saying your essential point is that the previous early retirement scheme involved a financial bonus – i.e. if I worked for 30 years I would get more than 30 years worth of pension – and that the proposed arrangement has no bonus in that if I worked for 30 years I simply get 30 years worth of pension, spread out over a longer period as I have retired at say 55 instead of 65. The only change is that people can draw their entitlement earlier than they can at present.

    That’s fine so far as it goes, and I wouldn’t argue with your statement that from the individual employee’s point of view this offer may not be attractive. But I am somewhat puzzled at why this move is being made at all when the general principle seems to be to raise retirement age. When the pension bubble hits the ratio of dependents to wage earners will increase, and to the extent that this measure has any impact it seems to add to this problem by taking people out of the workforce. jd’s point about skills loss also seems relevant.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 167 ✭✭uncivilservant


    I heard a rumour that the updated CAF figures will be released tomorrow afternoon.

    Anecdotal evidence appears to indicate quite a lot of people with no interest in relocating have applied for their own jobs, just to be left alone for a few years. It will be interesting to see if the numbers reflect this.

    Depressing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭cyclopath2001


    I heard a rumour that the updated CAF figures will be released tomorrow afternoon.

    Anecdotal evidence appears to indicate quite a lot of people with no interest in relocating have applied for their own jobs, just to be left alone for a few years. It will be interesting to see if the numbers reflect this.

    Depressing.

    Would I be correct in saying that Friday afternoons are the usual time for releasing news that media handlers want people to forget? And Mondays, for flimsy, planted stories that they want remembered?

    If so, we've had the spin about 'surge in interest' last Monday & no doubt, debatable figures, open to many interpretations, tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 167 ✭✭uncivilservant


    Would I be correct in saying that Friday afternoons are the usual time for releasing news that media handlers want people to forget? And Mondays, for flimsy, planted stories that they want remembered?

    If so, we've had the spin about 'surge in interest' last Monday & no doubt, debatable figures, open to many interpretations, tomorrow.
    I think you watch too much West Wing. ;)

    But as i said, it was only a rumour.

    We shall see if it's "put out with the trash" tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,761 ✭✭✭cdebru


    Oh dear...0.7% wrong!

    arcade its not surprising wexford would be finding it hard to attract investment if you are an example of the type of employee they are likely to get

    read the post again 8.3% was wexfords percentage of the total number of unemployed people not its unemployment rate


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    jd wrote:
    Where my dad was working , most of the technicians have gone for erarly retirement, which means that most of the research programs and analysis work cannot be done, no matter what the reseach scientists require. These blanket programs are nuts, they are probably more attractive to the more highly skilled.

    To the best of my knowledge- there was only one early retirement programme announced- and that was prior to the announcement of the civil service decentralisation (it was for the relocation of Teagasc's HQ and the rationalisation of their national programmes and closures into a limited number of facilities).
    There was an express agreement with the Unions that the scheme would not be used as precedent in any decentralisation (note: this was about 4 months before the civil service announcement was made- someone really knew what they were doing........)

    :(


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Smccarrick

    Am I right in saying your essential point is that the previous early retirement scheme involved a financial bonus – i.e. if I worked for 30 years I would get more than 30 years worth of pension – and that the proposed arrangement has no bonus in that if I worked for 30 years I simply get 30 years worth of pension, spread out over a longer period as I have retired at say 55 instead of 65. The only change is that people can draw their entitlement earlier than they can at present.

    That’s fine so far as it goes, and I wouldn’t argue with your statement that from the individual employee’s point of view this offer may not be attractive. But I am somewhat puzzled at why this move is being made at all when the general principle seems to be to raise retirement age. When the pension bubble hits the ratio of dependents to wage earners will increase, and to the extent that this measure has any impact it seems to add to this problem by taking people out of the workforce. jd’s point about skills loss also seems relevant.

    Hope this elucidates:


    To all staff Department of XXXXXXX

    You may be aware from recent media reports of a number of changes affecting pensions. The background to this is that last week the Government approved the implementation of some of the recommendations of the Commission in Public Service Pensions. The finer details of these changes are still being worked out and we will issue a circular with detailed instructions on their application in about 6/8 weeks. In the meantime the information is set out below.

    1. Introduction of cost neutral early retirement

    This will allow an established officer over the age of 50 (55 in the case of new entrants from 1April 2004) who wishes to leave before the age of 60 (65 in the case of new entrants) to have the option of (a) waiting until the minimum retiring age of 60 (65) at which time he or she would receive preserved lump sum and pension in the normal way i.e. based on reckonable service at time of leaving and uprated by salary values applicable at age 60 or (b) taking an actuarially reduced pension and lump sum at the time of leaving. The actuarial reduction will be done by applying the appropriate percentages from the table below to the amount of the benefit. There will be no added years


    Staff with a minimum retiring age of 60


    Age last Pension Lump sum
    birthday

    50 62.4% 82.2%
    51 65.1% 83.9%
    52 67.9% 85.5%
    53 71.0% 87.2%
    54 74.3% 88.9%
    55 77.8% 90.7%
    56 81.6% 92.4%
    57 85.7% 94.3%
    58 90.1% 96.1%
    59 94.8% 98.0%



    An example

    A person aged 50 on last birthday whose pension and lump sum would work out at say €20,000 (per annum) and €60,000 respectively based on reckonable service, would receive €12,480 (per annum) and €49,320 respectively. In the normal way the pension would increase in line with pay increases applicable to serving staff.

    2. Compound interest rate

    The current public service pension interest rate which applies in particular to repayment of marriage gratuities will be reduced from 6% to 4% with effect from 14 November 2000.

    3. A new calculation formula for integration between social insurance and public service pensions to boost the aggregate retirement income of lower paid public servants.

    This new formula would only affect established officers appointed after 5 April 1995, un-established officers and pensioners whose pensions are integrated with Contributory Old Age Pension rates. A pro rata process would apply to part-time public servants.

    4. Notional added years (for professional purposes).

    A new scheme for new entrants will be introduced.

    5. Reckoning of allowances held at retirement for pension purposes

    The calculation of allowances will be based on the best 3 consecutive years in the 10 years preceding retirement. It is not anticipated that this will affect civil servants.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    The overall position in the civil service may be summarised as follows:-
    • 3,711 Dublin-based civil servants are interested in moving to the new
    decentralised locations (2,200 in July);
    • 3,350 civil servants already working outside Dublin are interested in moving to
    the new decentralised locations (2,200 in July);
    • 525 Dublin-based civil servants are interested in moving to existing provincial
    locations (424 in July); and
    • 566 civil servants already working outside Dublin are interested in moving to a
    different provincial location (477 in July).
    10. The corresponding figures for the State agencies are as follows:
    • 534 Dublin-based employees of State agencies are interested in moving to the
    new decentralised locations (292 in July);
    • 198 State agency employees already working outside Dublin are interested in
    moving to the new decentralised locations (167 in July);
    • 43 Dublin-based employees of State agencies are interested in moving to
    existing provincial locations (38 in July); and
    • 31 State agency employees already working outside Dublin are interested in
    moving to a different provincial location (29 in July).

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=2616&CatID=48&StartDate=1+January+2004&m=c


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,028 ✭✭✭ishmael whale


    While as always not wanting to fall into the trap of arguing as if the number of volunteers determined the policy (how many civil servants would like to decentralise to the Copacabana?) the results as essentially unchanged and, as might be guessed, the headline ‘9000 registrations’ is meaningless.

    So they have less than 5,000 Dublin based volunteers for 9,500 jobs, without taking account of whether this includes Ordnance Survey cartographers applying to work as Probation Officers. Also, looking at the detail, the applicants still tend to be in the junior grades, and the locations close to Dublin (such as Drogheda, Trim, Newbridge) are only ones really getting the numbers. Take these out of consideration and the programme is still a farce.

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/decentralisation/decencafsept04.pdf


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭pete


    so...

    3,350 civil servants already working outside Dublin are interested in moving to the new decentralised locations, and 566 civil servants already working outside Dublin are interested in moving to a different provincial location

    That's 3,916 jobs needing to be filled if these 3,916 are to be available for relocation.

    but

    only 1,100 (534 Dublin & 566 provincial) staff want to move to these existing locations.

    So that's a deficit of 2,250 already...


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