Is Russia at war with Europe? UK thinks so, possibly by 2030. Is Ireland ready defence wise?

To paraphrase the Duke of Wellington, there is nothing so expensive as a country defended, except a country occupied.

The occupied portions of Ukraine have not been a paradise for the Ukrainian citizens found there. Except, of course, for those sent to paradise by the occupiers. History has shown many times that it is better to not be occupied in the first place, if you’re worried about the safety and security of civilians.

To be fair, Ireland need not be as worried about such things as countries like Lithuania. It needs an army only big enough to deal with local incursions. The Navy and Air Force needs the boost to protect infrastructure.

However, there is a caveat. Ireland’s neutrality is not iron-clad, its historical participation in EU battlegroups indicates a willingness to prepare to fight alongside its EU partners. If it is indeed going to do that, it needs to be trained and equipped for the job.

It seems to me that should the Baltic States, Poland or Finland (for example) find themselves in a fight for their citizens’ lives, they will remember the nations which helped them and those which did not. That is not likely to help Ireland’s diplomatic standing in Europe, no matter how much the Irish body politic may like to think it’s a diplomatic force. Consider the political, diplomatic and European ramifications currently hitting the US for even the possibility that it may be less invested in European defense. Then consider how they may reconsider their “friend” who refuses to risk a life to help while they are fighting for their own.

I don’t know if you watched the consultative forum on neutrality a couple years back, but various panelists noted, the rest of the world doesn’t pay as much attention to Irish diplomacy as Ireland thinks it does.

So four issues, here.

1. The rest of Europe apparently don't believe it's fearmongering, given their massive increases in defence expenditure and actions like the return of conscription (if they even stopped, looking at you, Finland). What do you know that they don't?
2. Ireland has proven unable to react to forseeable situations in reasonable timelines. The rest of Europe are working on a "be ready by 2030" date. Presumably they are giving a year or two's grace, better to be ready too early than too late, but there are valid reasons to pick that date, and they are just as aware of what's going on in Ukraine as we are. Either way, that's four years from now. Over four years ago, the Irish government received the report of the Commission of the Defence Forces. It gave controversial recommendations such as 'maybe it would be a good idea to have a radar to see what's going on in the sky, or perhaps some form of sub-surface surveillance capability'. These are recommendations which, as far as I know, no notable political party in Ireland has taken exception to. The recommendations were accepted by the Government of the time. Whilst the rest of Europe is preparing to fight in four years, four years after making a decision, Ireland still does not have an operating primary radar or a vessel equipped with sonar (let alone even a plan for doing anything with the information such equipment provides).
3. What's worse is that Ireland is starting from scratch. If you look at a country like the Netherlands, when they cut back after the cold war ended, they said "OK, let's get rid of all our tanks, but just to keep the knowledgebase, we'll incorporate a couple of companies of troops into the German Army." When they decided to buy tanks again last year, they at least had a core of people who knew what they were doing so they are pretty capable as soon as the equipment is delivered. Other countries which are expanding their military capabilities are simply getting bigger, but not having to learn anything new. Ireland is starting from scratch, even for basic national policing duties. When those sonar get fitted to the ships in a year or two, the crews will have to learn how to use them effectively.
4. The forseeable future isn't the problem, it's the unforseeable future. Which is why Europe is scrambling to re-arm as they obviously didn't forsee Russia deciding to start major wars in Europe. Again, we have precedent. In the interwar period, for example, the UK worked on the "ten year rule". They believed that there would not be a war for at least ten years, when they were doing their national planning. Germany apparently did not read the same rule-book, the UK was caught flat-footed.

I'm fairly sure the various European countries are not too picky about who they defend themselves against, assuming they are fans of self-determination. And if, in the unlikely event, the US is going to invade Greenland, they have a pretty good chance of invading another Atlantic coast state or two, like Iceland or Ireland. The arguments remain just as valid, even if you think a US attack is no less likely than a Russian one. (Notwithstanding that Russia arguably already has conducted hostile actions against Ireland, and I can't think of an equivalent by the US)

In any case, the Greenland thing has blown over. Rational heads have prevailed and the US is looking to open new bases under the terms of its existing agreements with Denmark.

I can't help but notice that you have not addressed any of the various points I put forward, the majority of which have nothing to do with the US at all. Might I suggest you take a slightly more European focus?

It doesn't affect me, but Europe affects Ireland, two ways.

Firstly Ireland's prosperity the past few decades has been linked to its membership of the EEC/EC/EU. The quality of life you enjoy is directly correlated to peace and partnership in Europe. The more the latter is negatively affected, the greater the impact on Ireland, both immediately and over time..

Secondly, if an adversary feels that it is advantageous to attack Ireland in order to achieve its goals elsewhere in Europe such as affecting communications or commerce or simply destabilizing the country, it's not going to care about Irish sensibilities. It's not going to care about what anyone thinks, let alone Ireland.

And again I would note you have not addressed any of the European concerns I mentioned. Whether they affect me or not, they still affect Ireland.