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Is Russia at war with Europe? UK thinks so, possibly by 2030. Is Ireland ready defence wise?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    If we had a defence capability we would have some leverage on how a war would be prosecuted if it happened on our soil.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    How's that going to be paid for? It's not me you need to convince but the Irish middle classes. I don't see them going for it.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    It's the Dail that decides. The people have a say at elections. You cant put a price on independence.

    Also Sean Lemass said "if Europe is worth joining, its worth defending".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    We have independence.

    The Dáil is elected by the people so they need to be convinced. Given that they won't spring for housing or healthcare any more than they do now, vastly expanding national defence isn't going to be a runner.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Polls show support for a common defence grows with income.

    Recent years show us to expect the unexpected.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Do they show support for tax rises to support this?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,739 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    If we put any of our existing taxes to a referendum, its doubtful that they would pass. We have had large surpluses in recent years.

    One of the reasons Ukraine wasnt ready for the 2014 invasion was that Yanukovych had cut defence spending and largely dismantled the armed forces military capability. Also decades of back and forth on whether to join .NATO.

    Sweden and Finland would have expressed very similar sentiments to yours before the 2022 invasion but then public opinion changed massively.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,852 ✭✭✭scottser


    Spend the Apple tax money on a new naval fleet and a sea drone factory.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,967 ✭✭✭rock22


    No reasonable armament spending would guarantee our defence against attack by a major power such as Russia, China, US, UK Germany or France.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,924 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    You are misremembering if you think that the Iraq War was presented as you describe in Europe. It may have been presented that way on some news stations at the very beginning with shock and awe, but it certainly did not last long.

    I remember watching Shock and Awe live on Sky News at the time and even then right at the beginning, everyone could clearly see through the American propaganda. It was not long before people were marching here in the streets against that war, including myself.

    Whether people want to admit it or not, Iraq, Yemen and Saudi Arabia are not within our European sphere. Attacks on them are not seen as attacks on us. We can find them abhorant and protest, but it does not feel like a direct threat to us.

    An attack on Ukraine by a nuclear superpower is a completely different thing to people living in Europe. It is a direct threat to us and our way of life. We do not need to be 'measured' in our media response to this.

    You are really just creating a moralistic whataboutery - people are allowed to feel differently about different events, that does not make them 'selectively moral' hypocrites.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,902 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    This is true.

    Norway's stated defence goal* is to protect Norwegian citizens and infrastructure for long enough for allied forces to come and help, not to defend the nation unilaterally against Russia for an indefinite period.

    This seems a not unreasonable compromise between the obligation of the state to protect its citizens and the reality imparted by the fact that a small country of about 5.5mn people is not going to be able to afford in Krones/Euro or manpower to defend itself against a major power without assistance. I suspect the Baltic states have similar philosophies, though I have not read their documents.

    *After the joining of Sweden and Finland into NATO, this is being modified somewhat to turn into what is in effect an RSOI point to aid the transit of friendly forces to those two countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,014 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    And why exactly should they?

    Pumping money into weapons manufacturers for a threat that may or may not exist.

    Theres much more value investing in diplomacy, rather than pandering to the whims of the savages amongst us and the multibillionsaires and political class whose families and themselves are sheilded from the horrors of war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm not arguing for it. Quite the opposite. Ireland's never going to be strong enough to defend itself against even a wreck like Russia. It'd make far more sense to invest in improving things for people.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,902 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Diplomacy only works when both sides are interested in it. Recall the global diplomatic flurry in late 2021/ early 2022 for a recent example.

    Nobody is suggesting that Ireland follow Poland in terms of defense expenditure. However, there are other countries with the same reputation as Ireland on the international diplomatic stage like Norway, Switzerland, Canada and Sweden who do and also have a moderate defense capability. It's good to have a backup option.

    Theoretically crime can be eliminated by good education, services, economic policy and the like. But we won't remove the police force because we can spend the money on schools.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,014 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    There's a big difference between a generally unarmed police force who even in a decent society have a significant roles and trying to build up something a long the lines of what some people want to see militarily in Ireland.

    Only enriches the companies selling arms and services and leads to a worse world for everyone.

    You'll not find people like me starting off down the road of significantly increased defense spending while we still can't get a decent appointment in a hospital without being on private healthcare(and all the other bits we are inadequate with).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,611 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    You can only predict the future defence by looking at what exists today and what was done in the past.

    On that basis it could be 3030 and Ireland wouldn't be ready to defend anything.

    Correction Ireland are very quick to defend doing nothing. Nothing about defence, housing or healthcare.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,902 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Ireland throws some 22% of its government budget at healthcare, compared to the European average of 15%. The aforementioned Norway is at 18%. Sweden 19%.

    I submit that throwing more Euro at the problem isn't as good a solution as being efficient with the apparently excessive Euro currently being thrown at it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,611 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Ireland govt idea at spending lots of money badly does not seem to work well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,014 ✭✭✭✭kippy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,859 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Be realistic, threats to Irish people are asymmetric rather than direct military confrontation. The only country with direct military interest in us is the UK (London). Since multinationals involved in global supply chains operate here, a rival power might consider attacking the local infrastructure used by them as a proxy (Stryker) rather than direct attack on the United States. Even though the kinetic war is elsewhere in the globe, there is always a good chance it will involve US and its allies (Pax Americana).

    To create economic chaos in Ireland, take out the gas pipelines in the Irish sea or better the North sea, within a week Ireland is in economic chaos, electricity, heating and production are impacted. Such an attack would be against the UK, Ireland is merely collateral damage since our energy supply chains are tied to the UK.

    An enemy can attempt to foment internal political instability by pouring petrol on existing political issues and get all sides at each others throats, use the US based social media companies algorithms to drive "engagement". The most this will cause is temporary dislocation, enough to cause a government collapse if the timing is right. Practically all Irish TDs are cut from the same cloth, there is nothing to gain unless there is an angle that can create distraction for either Brussels or London. Issues like maintaining the triple lock, loss of sovereignty to Brussels are useful objectives for geopolitical rivals.

    The defense focus for any Irish government must be keep supply chains open (past experience Irish shipping in WW2) and infrastructure online. We don't have anyway to protect gas pipelines. Since the Irish sea between Scotland is relatively narrow, the opportunities to get in and out without being seen are limited, and strategically it would not create a major issue for the UK (NI aside). Taking out North sea pipelines would create a dilemma for London, they would have to cut back supplies to Ireland with diplomatic chaos ensuing between Dublin and London.

    It is now June, how quickly will gas reserves across Europe be replenished and at what price? 17% of Qatars LNG capacity is offline. The economic costs of global conflict are reflected in cost push inflation, availability of energy, welfare and migration (overhead cost of accommodating refugees Ukraine + Middle East). These all impact the cost of living which impacts local politics.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,924 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    For me it's not necessarily having a 1:1 capability against a Russian attack, but we need to be able to do something. Some sort of 'piss off from our airspace, we see what you're doing' deterrent.

    Right now we can literally do nothing and absolutely freeload off the likes of the UK, with us entirely dependent on them for defence. Which I find quite embarrassing on the world stage to be honest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    "Only enriches the companies selling arms" is the new version of the 80s mantra "inflating the vast profits of the condom purveyors" 🙄

    Of course the objection is never really about money. Because if in a magic world we could get guns and rubbers (sounds like a rock band) for free or at cost price, they'd still object…

    Someone mentioned policing - well we have one of the largest areas of sovereign waters in the EU, 9-10 times the size of our land area - and unless the drug smugglers drop a bollock entirely or we get lucky with international intelligence, we have literally no idea they are there, never mind being able to do anything much about it. The MV Matthew operation was almost a disaster due to the threadbare resources available.

    Purely on this basis alone, we should have a properly resourced navy.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,014 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    It's not at all and I reject the comparison.

    You'd only use that comparison to try discredit the concept.

    There's massive difference between both statements.

    The objection isn't totally about money - of course it isn't, its just one reason why I'd object to significantly building up a military presense.

    As for a properly resourced navy, if the aim is to catch all the boats drug running, or at least make it less palatable for them, or disuade some of the undersea surveying done by the Russians, fine - no issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I get that. I do. However, you don't need to convince me. You need to convince Ireland's middle classes to pay for it. You'll also need some kind of concrete metrics. How big of an army do you want? How many ships for the navy? Planes?

    I'm in the UK and I see various recruitment campaigns for the Armed Forces. They're really struggling to get people. I went to see Masters of the Universe last week and it was sponsored by them. People just don't want to join in the numbers required. It's like the problem with building houses.

    I recall an interview with a senior American General who said that the UK can't even defend itself from invasion.

    Ireland piggybacks off the UK because that's pretty much what it's always done. It's a tradition that goes back centuries. I've no problem with people wanting to change that but you're going to need to make a serious case for it given Ireland's insanely privileged geographical position.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,641 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Good news that efforts are being made at starting some kind of talks between the EU and Russia. A few states totally against the idea but in the main the idea has gained more support.

    Amazing how it took this long for someone to even pluck up the courage and make an effort given the situation at the moment.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,614 ✭✭✭JohnDoe2025


    That is why you join an alliance, hello NATO, let us in.

    Russia is the biggest threat to Ireland. Cyber attacks, cable attacks, drone attacks, we are very vulnerable to modern warfare.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,924 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    Someone did a very interesting deep dive analysis of a potential scenario and the costs involved over on reddit, having difficulty finding the thread though - it was very well put together.

    Part of it involved proper radar, some interceptors and well placed SAM sites around the country. Not sure it actually necessarily require a massive boost to standing infantry numbers, was more about what we need just to challenge potential incursions and not be entirely helpless.

    I see Germany is doing something similar re recruitment, even more aggressively. There's talk of conscription and mandatory military service for those born after 2008. Not sure how I feel about that at all to be honest. I sure wouldn't care for it if I was born after 2008, I'll tell you that.

    Edit - found it, here we go. This does go well beyond what I mentioned and involves a lot of aircraft and ships too. Interesting read

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/1tx40oc/irish_defence_forces/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,452 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm certainly very anti-conscription and very opposed to anything like it.

    Things are a bit different on the continent though. Germany are members of NATO and the situation in Ukraine has forced a volte face there in terms of defence policy. Ireland's very far removed from that situation.

    Maybe it could be done for fairly cheap but a quick google shows that the army is less than 7,000 full time soldiers which seems awfully small for a country of over 5 million.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Macron and Merz are right and everyone else is a deluded fool.

    It takes a very perverse ability to shut your eyes and ignore all evidence to think that Russia have any interest in talking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 41,974 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    .So you don't want us "significantly building up a military presense"…

    As for a properly resourced navy, if the aim is to catch all the boats drug running, or at least make it less palatable for them, or disuade some of the undersea surveying done by the Russians, fine - no issues.

    …but then you do?

    What else do you think an expanded navy would be doing btw?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



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