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Is Russia at war with Europe? UK thinks so, possibly by 2030. Is Ireland ready defence wise?

  • 12-06-2026 07:31PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭


    With the resignation of UK Defense secretary John Healey over the "Defense of the Realm" budget not being at all sufficient and the far more serious imminent threat from Russia etc … the palpable thing coming through from the UK intelligence is we are in far more serious threat than we think. British intelligence saying an attack from putins Russia could come as soon as 2030.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/11/uk-defence-funding-john-healey-keir-starmer-offer

    OK, we might decide to view this as Chicken Licken, the sky is falling in. That all this is a load of alarmist cr*p. And shur Russia is bogged down in Ukraine how the hell will they ever invade Europe, UK, Ireland. OR as I hear alot of - who is ever going to invade us, a tiny island off the coast of the UK and Europe … shur dont we have far bigger problems like housing.

    My view always has been - re our tradition of neutrality - Just because we are neutral DOES NOT MEAN we completely shirk all responsibility for DEFENCE of this country. It seems the Defence of the nation is the prime thing and at the top of the list for governments of many other countries inc the UK.

    Kaja Kallas recently visted Dublin and had some comments on all of this:

    https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/ireland-press-remarks-high-representativevice-president-kaja-kallas-irish-minister-foreign-affairs_en

    I notice this which is surely a good thing:

    In February, Ireland launched its first Maritime Security Strategy, setting out the plan to better protect its interests at sea. Ireland's commitment to increase defence spending by 55% by 2030 sends a clear signal that Ireland is stepping up. 

    About time no. 1: - successive governments have left our military wither on the vine. We still DONT have a primary military radar system, so we really dont know who/what is flying over or around this country? Though I do note this is perhaps getting addressed finally:

    "Ireland is procuring its first dedicated long-range primary military radar system through a €500 million government-to-government agreement with France. The system will fill a long-standing national security gap and is expected to be fully deployed by the end of 2028."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/world/europe/ireland-defense.html

    About time no 2: - Surely, being an Island nation we should have a top of the line Navy AND be utilizing DRONE Tech to its fullist to cover security of our waters & air. But unfortunately and apparently, we only have one ship active??? We just do not have enough personel? I pass through monkstown in Cork most weeks and look across at rushbrook docks by Cobh looking at 2 ships, at least, sitting at dock for a year or two now. More docked at hawlboline.

    Hopefully all this is getting sorted and fast BECAUSE in a way we are already at war with Russia via Cyber / grey warfare. I think the HSE cyber attack few years back originated from St Petersburg. As mentioned above the UK today are taking this threat of War - not just in Ukraine - from Russia etc in other countries across Europe is only a matter of time? The UK MOD and intelligence are seeing this as a very serious threat, i think we need to take this just as serious?

    Over to ye ….

    Post edited by aidanodr on


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Sort of related:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/kaja-kallas-russia-sanctions-metal-oil-ireland/

    The Rusal-owned Aughinish Alumina refinery in County Limerick has avoided any European sanctions chiefly because, so far, the EU has not targeted manufacturers of materials used to make aluminum and other metals.

    But, speaking at a press conference alongside Irish Foreign Minister Helen McEntee, Kallas said the EU’s next sanctions package may well target Aughinish, whose alumina is ending up in Russian weapons systems, according to an international investigation published in March. The company admits its exports of the material to Russia have more than doubled since Russia drastically expanded its war on Ukraine in 2022.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,846 ✭✭✭scottser


    Yeh, Ireland issuing those 14,000 visas is well dodgy. Tiny number of Russians living here yet they have the third largest consular staff in the country. They should be relegated to one bloke with dial up broadband from a shed in Leitrim.

    I'd be all up for a bigger navy and seizing a couple of their sanctioned oil tankers too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    YES … As an Island nation with a long history of using our coasts and seas one would imagine that we should have a decent navy. Couple that with a serious amount of drone tech, Ukraine has shown us how to do this, get the Irish military trained by Ukraine in this whole new warfare. Use drones to police our coasts and further out perhaps .. but yes I know - Jamming is a thing I suppose, could not use fibre reels



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    And for a real kick in the ar*e for the Russian company who own the Aughinish Alumina refinery in Limerick - use there aluminum to make Irish Drones :D

    Post edited by aidanodr on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,793 ✭✭✭monseiur


    Yea sure the Russians are coming. Over four years ago they crossed into Ukraine and haven't yet reached the Dnipro river with just NATO (with one hand tied behind it's back) as opposition. At the rate they're progressing they may reach the Polish border by 2076 !

    The fact is that if they manage to hold what they have in any peace agreement they'll limp home, lick their wounds and will not be stupid enough to try a stunt like this anytime soon.

    By invading Ukraine Putin showed his hand and confirmed to the rest of the world that Russia is no longer the world power it once was. Leaving nuclear weapons aside Russia did not move with the times militarily speaking, having a million young fresh faced lads with Kalashnikovs is no longer sufficient when facing NATO's ultra modern technology.

    China may be a threat but they are too astute and are concentrating on building their economy - that's where the real power is long term and they sure know it. If current trends continue they may very well rule the world, economically speaking, by 2050



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,008 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    This is it. It makes much more sense spending money on diplomacy and on the citizens of the nation rather than filling the pockets of weapons manufacturers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Yet we have this:

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/06/10/joint-investigation-maps-russia-s-military-buildup-along-its-nato-border-finland-could-now-face-80-000-russian-troops

    https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-increased-military-buildup-near-nato-border-investigation-reveals/

    "The threat of a Russian attack is the largest over the next one to three years since Europe is still in the process of increasing its own capabilities, even if it's a worse time for Russia too, sources said.

    "It will be a war that takes place in all dimensions. It will take place on land, in the air, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace," Major Brian Nissen said."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,595 ✭✭✭corkie


    @aidanodr get the Irish military trained by Ukraine in this whole new warfare.
    

    Seems strange to be thinking that when Irish forces trained Ukraine soldiers in 2023?

    In 2023 the then government authorised the provision of training by the Defence Forces to Ukrainian armed forces personnel while military equipment has also been provided.
    Ministers argue strongly that all support for Ukraine has remained of a non-lethal nature.
    Official briefing documents provided to the Minister for Defence, Simon Harris on his appointment in January set out the full details of Ireland’s support for Ukraine.
    Officials said Ireland had donated about 10 tonnes – or 5,000 units – of ready-to-eat meals and 200 units of body armour. In addition, 30 military vehicles and mine flails – devices that make a safe path through a minefield – have been provided.
    The briefing documents said arrangements were being finalised for the donation to Ukraine of a number of specialist bomb disposal robots, while Ireland would also potentially provide other equipment from its military stocks, including air defence radar systems.

    Irish military personnel, the briefing material noted, had provided training to more than 730 Ukrainian troops across a number of areas. These included tactical combat casualty care/combat life-saving, demining and mine clearance, drill instruction, basic training, junior leadership and training on the use of mine flails.

    ~ https://archive.ph/PpiKl « Irish Times articale.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    I was more focusing on DRONE WARFARE training from Ukraine who arguably are the worlds leading military in this type of warfare??



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭Exiled Rebel


    My brother in law was there as part of it. The Ukrainians sent to train in Germany were aspiring NCO's. Some of them were absolutely nuts, acting like Rambo on the training ground. A German officer was saying the casualty rate of the previous group that went back was extremely high.

    I can't imagine anyone acting like Rambo would last very long.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    So we had the UK Marines bording/sizing a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in teh English channel over the weekend.

    Now this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/16/russian-frigate-fires-warning-shots-at-british-yacht-in-channel-reports

    The Ministry of Defence is investigating reports that a Russian frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich, fired warning shots on Tuesday morning within 500 metres of a British yacht sailing a little over 20 miles south of the Isle of Wight.

    No injuries or damage have been reported by the yachta pleasure boat, which continued its journey. A boat from HMS Tyne, a patrol vessel, has visited the yacht to gather details and check the crew are safe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,072 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    There is a couple of issues here, russia loitering and generally causing disruption with these ships (really being used as escorts for their shadow fleet) and this ship seems to have got itself in trouble and has been behaving erratically in a very busy shipping channel.

    + it happening a couple of days after the UK boarded and now arrested one of their shadow fleet ships.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Hilarious post 🤣

    You know who portrays Russia in a negative light? RUSSIA!

    They deliberately target and kill Ukr civilians on a daily basis so get your head out of Putins ass ffs!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    So you deny posting this?

    Many people are anti-Russian, so they gleefully lap up any story that portrays Russia in a negative light.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    What a load of tinfoil hat conspiracy garbage.

    The usual comrade nonsense of NATO been the big bad wolf 🤣



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Of course it’s true and you’re surprised? Where have you been for the last 4yrs.

    Do murdered Ukraine civilians at the hands of Russia not matter to you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You've dumped a quote from Peter Thiel, someone with some pretty vile views and a link to Greenandpleasant, the most dysfunctional subreddit I've ever seen.

    It looks very much like you're just posting Kremlin propaganda and talking points here.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,157 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Yet again I have to remind you what you said:

    Many people are anti-Russian, so they gleefully lap up any story that portrays Russia in a negative light.

    You well know I was adding context to this as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the elephant in the room that you cannot avoid despite numerous attempts!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    If your such a fan of “critical thinking” why not apply it your own statement?

    Oh I know you wouldn’t like the answer as it doesn’t suit the narrative your pushing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It is when the thread is about Russia.

    G&P is well known as a tankie cesspit. I'm not clicking on any link to it.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Haha you do keep spewing a lot of nonsense without making any point.

    Quoting back what you actually said is now a gotcha 😂

    I already gave my answer as to why Russia is rightly despised the world over, it’s you that has difficulty comphrending that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    Again why do keep omitting this from the 2nd point you originally made?

    Many people are anti-Russian, so they gleefully lap up any story that portrays Russia in a negative light.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 864 ✭✭✭technocrat


    There is no media bias, Russia launched an illegal war against a sovereign European country and is actively trying to interfere in the democratic election process of other neighbouring countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,923 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    Proportionate and consistent against what though?

    There is a war in Eastern Europe, at the doorstep of the EU - Why wouldn't that get all the air time?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You're twisting my words and playing the victim card. None of this is going to make your regurgitated Kremlin talking points more convincing.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    If your point is that Peter Thiel is a piece of sh*t, you'll find no argument from me. I'm not remotely interested in defending him.

    Russia is attempting to destroy a European country and all you're interested in is shutting down criticism of this.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 4,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Ireland is obviously not ready. We need allies. We should aim for Danish levels of military capability.

    In WW2 we narrowly avoided either side invading us. We are the backdoor to Britain. We would be powerless if Russia attempted a landing. They more than likely have cells all over the West ready to be activated.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    We were more likely to be invaded by the British than the Axis and even that was never a serious possibility due to our pro-Allied neutrality.

    Russia can't even conquer Ukraine, a country with no natural protection.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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