A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Dimon has been saying this since before covid. Wonder what his opinions were around 2004/5 ahead of the GFC?

Might take his utterances more seriously if he was making similar noises a few years out from 07.

Found that piece about datacentre and their share of the US GDP figures.

Furman’s findings, shared online and echoed by financial analysts including Robert Armstrong of the

Financial Times‘ Unhedged (the same writer who coined the term “TACO trade’), echo several months of observations on the remarkable surge in data-center infrastructure. In August, Renaissance Macro Research estimated, to date in 2025, the dollar value contributed to GDP growth by AI data-center buildout had surpassed U.S. consumer spending for the first time ever. That’s remarkable considering consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP

https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/data-centers-gdp-growth-zero-first-half-2025-jason-furman-harvard-economist/

Considering how little Deepseek cost in comparison to the US models it's going to be a massive evaporation of projected valuation when it pops.

On the plus side energy demand may see a drop off.

As if the car industry was not in a bad enough way, now it looks like this Dutch governments escapade has boomeranged back on the industry. Parts from the companies plant in China have been forbidden to be exported and cars are reliant on them. Where do they get these idiots from, do they not think of ant possible consequence ?

Lots of mostly US logistics companies laying off staff, in Ireland too with Fastway in administration today.

I'd imagine online shopping has taken a knock with all the tariffs, but on the otherhand Pennys/primark are eying up expansion in the US to fill the gap left by Temu.

heavy dependency on some sectors for taxation, rarely causes problems!

It’s not really different; private credit is the wild west of corporate finance with regulators clueless as to what is going on with corporate loans. It is quite shocking to see how little is understood in the murky private credit industry but the loans touch everything in our economy and these are effectively unregulated lenders when lending to corporates/professionals so are not constrained by external borrower due diligence requirements.

AI hype is the reason the US stock market is booming and by extension the US economy (and indirectly the global economy).

There are two massive unknowns being entirely disregarded by the markets with respect to AI which show that no rational person can believe this is anything other than a massive, hollow bubble ripe for popping;

(1) energy infrastructure cannot support AI’s hyper growth for decades from now unless a new form of energy can be discovered overnight.
(2) Making good money from the real economy with AI implementation is no where near guaranteed versus where the markets are valuing the companies right now. In fact, it seems the AI hype train is just being pushed along by the key companies themselves hyping each other up. They are just giving each other business and orders in some sort of infinite money generation via a circular process.

It is shocking that regulators and market commentators don’t seem to make the link between private credit’s growth and popularity as an investment class and what this growth means for the global economies. If the private credit industry is exploding, it is not because it is loaning to companies with no real world impact; quite the opposite in fact (eg you have probably noticed Klarna appearing in your Booking.com app or your food delivery apps, depending where you live). And the reason the returns are so juicy in private credit? High interest rates (= riskier borrowers)!

Dimon said the quiet part out loud; there is never just one cockroach (in response to the auto lenders which went belly up recently).

At the same time, who thinks it’s time for another round of QE? I thought the last one went very well!

thats horsesh1t, most credit created money is being used for speculation in asset markets, and most of that money is remaining within major speculative sectors such as the fire sectors, i.e. most of that money doesnt ever enter the mainstream of economics, it never enters the bank accounts of the average punter

There was an article a few days ago in one of the papers about how people are going to spend less money this year on Christmas. Don’t think it’s an obvious recession indicator in itself but with all these high living costs as mentioned by another poster above consumer confidence is bound to be dented. Disposable income being eaten up on essentials. Today is Black Friday not much talk of it either.

And as also mentioned above jobs seem much harder to get. My local Facebook page has heaps of people asking where there are any jobs going. Now it could be they want cash in hand jobs but it didn’t come across like this, just people desperately in need of work to pay the bills and keep the show on the road.

Yes sorry got day wrong!

If there is going to be any crash its going to come from the AI sector, the rate at which some of these tech company's stock has risen is unprecedented and the proposed investments they are making are enough to take down a small economy if they go south. They all seem to be investing in each other too or other AI ventures.