A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123747990#Comment_123747990

Good old Conor Skehan, can always be relied upon for a contrarian view on housing, we need more like him IMO.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123747922#Comment_123747922

McWilliams was generalising and spoofing. Kelly was crunching the numbers and his predictions were very accurate. He predicted both the housing crash and banking collapse. The so called Dr Doom never courted any fame was hated by a few scoundrels.

The prophet of doom, but Morgan has the last laugh | Irish Independent

He has been ridiculed, dismissed as a loony and his prescient predictions on the property crash were widely credited with provoking former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's bewilderment in 2007 at why people on the sidelines "cribbing and moaning . . . don't commit suicide . . ."

In 2007, he wrote the iconic Irish Times column predicting that house prices would fall by 60pc. He was rubbished in many quarters, most notably by stakeholders in the property market.

Jim Power, also a prominent economist during the boom, told the Sunday Independent a few years ago that "one of the biggest embarrassments of his life" was to be negative about Mr Kelly's property predictions on Prime Time.

Anglo was on its way over the cliff but, publicly, the government was still talking about pumping in €1.5bn to keep it going. Morgan Kelly predicted that - based on the €80bn it had lent to developers - Anglo Irish Bank's losses would not be €15bn but could be twice that. The government's €1.5bn investment would "vaporise in months": "For all it will achieve, the money might as well be piled up in St Stephen's Green and incinerated," Mr Kelly wrote.

One thrusting banker raged on the phone to his strockbroker friend, presumably oblivious to the fact that their phone conversation was being recorded on the bank's internal system. Their macho, chest-thumbing hubris as they stewed with indignation over the article will be familiar to followers of the Anglo Tapes.

"Incinerate Morgan Kelly," said the stockbroker.

Mr Kelly hasn't played up his celebrity economist status. He is an academic who studied at Trinity College and Yale University in the US, was an assistant professor at Cornell University, a lecturer at University College Dublin and is currently professor of economics there. He doesn't blog or tweet and appeared on television once. 

purplefields

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123747777#Comment_123747777

The solution will be the same - more taxes. We can't have rich people slightly less rich.

For me it is as if the 2008 bubble burst was 'patched up'. The underlying problems really are still there which is the unravelling of capitalism.

2008 was 'fixed' by the people of Ireland forced to pay Income Levy, USC and LPT. Then we had Covid and the even more money was transferred to the rich. Now we are at the point of a huge global wealth gap, maybe worse than before WW1.

Any one of Ukraine/Russia/Israel/Gaza spreading, Climate collapse, AI job loss, wacky Trump tariffs or some black swan event and the whole lot will come crashing down. Again.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123748880#Comment_123748880

capitalism will just be fine, it ll just morph into another form, and we ll move on, but this current, predominant form of capitalism, call it what you will, is morphing into something extremely destructive, and yes, the fundamentals that caused the crash in the first place, such as excess credit creation, are all still there!

yup, all patched up, and not working at all, hence the rapid disintegration of our democratic processes and institutions, tis all good, it ll probably all end well!

brickster69

Looks like France is about to have a new government as it's economic problems increase. The IMF has just forecasted French fiscal deficit of 6%+ till at least 2030 with govt expenditure at 57% of the entire GDP. Not good all this debt, something will give somewhere.

https://archive.is/y32m6

Fine Day

A lot of talk on France and a potential IMF bail out. Surely not good for Europe.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758531#Comment_123758531

And UK with also Germany not being able to afford welfare. It makes you think what they all have in common, must be something.

https://amp.dw.com/en/german-welfare-state-can-no-longer-be-financed-merz/a-73742270

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123758531#Comment_123758531

Can you share your source?

Reading the news, it is not something that could happen short or medium term.

Here is an article about it (you will need to translate the page):

https://www.20minutes.fr/economie/4169595-20250827-explosion-dette-tutelle-fmi-discours-bayrou-vraiment-fait-plonger-economie-francaise

Deub

Talk about scaremongering. It is one economist saying it…

And about Germany, no talk about IMF just the chancellor that wants to push for reforms.

Reading your comments and the one above, you would swear European countries are on the verge of collapse. But no, not even close.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759736#Comment_123759736

and its generally private debt that truly triggers serious economic crisis, particularly in the modern age

backwards_man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123747990#Comment_123747990

That is an extraordinary claim by CS. He says within the next few months (it was weeks initially when he started the sentence) there is going to be a very abrupt downturn in the housing market.

The reasons for this according to him are an expected downturn in the tech sector (he cites a few reasons for that), removing high wage house hunters at the top of the market and that will trickle down to the lower levels.

I wish the interview had dug into it a bit more. If the high end is not selling, surely those buyers reduce their expectations and buy in the next bracket down, since there are loads of them they push that section up in prices again. Or is it they are not buying at all? He also cites loads of new builds sitting empty (i have not seen that myself anywhere).

We wont have to wait long to see if he is right.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759736#Comment_123759736

They'll say the Russian economy is booming though. 😂

Fine Day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759711#Comment_123759711

Just Google it.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759825#Comment_123759825

You claimed it. I didn’t. I backed up my answer with a source.

Your answer says it all really. No imminent IMF bailout for France.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759769#Comment_123759769

It's really on fire,!!!!

Fine Day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759847#Comment_123759847

I never claimed anything. A simple Google search is all I done and i read a few articles and that's why I said a potential IMF bail out. Sorry I won't post again on it as I seemed to of upset you.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759747#Comment_123759747

And guess what funds are hot at the moment? The private debt funds are the hot funds are the growing market.

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123760293#Comment_123760293

It doesn’t upset me. What I don’t like is posts with only half of the information without more details. Some posters (and I am not talking about you) are specialists of this. Their posts are ambiguous on purpose to muddy the facts.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759769#Comment_123759769

It’s booming alright

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/27/frustrated-russians-grapple-with-fuel-crisis-as-ukraine-attacks-oil-refineries

Our friend from Orwell road is projecting his own fears

https://fortune.com/2025/08/23/russia-economy-recession-harvest-season-disaster-ukraine-war-putin/

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123759759#Comment_123759759

How many new homes make it through to the sales market? Not many at all.

We are building 30k - 35k per year, but its a very small percentage that ever hit the estate agent window with a for sale sign.

The state purchases a lot of these new homes and most others end up as build to rent.

Its hard to see a downward pressure on house prices when there are almost no new homes for sales being delivered.

Annual population growth of 80k to 100k and continued employment growth adds further fuel to house prices and their upward surge.

A big downturn in MNC employment will of course have an affect, but what number of job losses are predicted in worst case scenario?

We have about 300k MNC workers in the country. How many will we have by 2030?

Those 300k people pay more income tax than the rest of the labour force combined, so we are heavily over reliant on them, not to mind the almost 90% corporation tax receipts that those companies also deliver.

The larger the MNC job cuts, the steeper the house price fall, but how deep will those job cuts run?

Ben D Bus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123761996#Comment_123761996

I get your point, but maybe being a bit pedantic, I believe "Those 300k people pay more income tax than the rest of the labour force combined" isn't quite correct? I think they pay more than the rest of the corporate sector, which in turn is a subset of the private sector. So small independent businesses are excluded, not to mention income tax from agriculture, public sector, possibly semi-state etc.

Still a very outsized share of income tax, and they are certainly higher paying employers, but I think it needs clarification.

I'm open to correction.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123762907#Comment_123762907

The 14% that work in the MNC sector pay almost 55% of all income tax the state receives.

They pay more than all other employees from all other sectors combined.

Which means they are very likely the largest contributors to public sector salaries, also.

Ben D Bus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123762945#Comment_123762945

Have you a link for that?

This is what I have from the Revenue website, a 2024 analysis of 2022. So a little out of date.

https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/research/ct-analysis-2024.pdf

"The combined employment taxes paid by large corporates were €28.9 billion. Foreign-owned multinationals accounted for 35 per cent of employment and 53 per cent of employment taxes among these corporate employers."

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123762945#Comment_123762945

Public sector income tax significantly originates from private sector taxes and so is dependent on that to a degree.

cleanfarmer2025

There's certainly a greater risk of recession in the coming 12 months than there has been since the 2022 initial invasion of Ukraine.

I'd even start to think are typical recessions as we know it, over, if we don't see one as a result of Covid, war, tarriffs.

Have we traded economic contractions and job losses in recessions with high inflation? It's definitely a possibility. Keep pumping money into the system and printing to keep people in jobs but the pain is felt by high inflation instead.

It's harder to get people to mobilise and be angry in their masses when they're too busy working.

The people who lose in typical recessions are workers who lose their jobs or take paycuts.

The people who lose in the 'new recession' are non asset holders, i.e renters.

The IMF said at the start of Covid that we would see a recession at least as bad as the 2008 financial crisis. Did we? No. Governments printed and pumped money into the system to keep people happy and spending even though they weren't working.

But we saw high inflation as a result and then due to the war and now prices are probably 40% higher than they were in 2020 before the pandemic.

snowgal

The people who lose in the 'new recession' are non asset holders, i.e renters.

could you explain this further please?

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123779266#Comment_123779266

In a high inflation scenario, those holding cash are worst off as it devalues.

Assets like property will typically see their values rise with inflation.

And in high inflation scenario, rents will also rise

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123779289#Comment_123779289

In our market if AirBnB was seriously curtailed as is happening in Barcelona we may see an increase in supply, which would take rents out of the argument as a leading economic indicator.

When our economy was running hot in the noughties rents were stagnant compared to mortgage servicing increases, the latter being used in calculating the national inflation rate.

All high rents may be telling us is that landlords like the Healy Raes who defended AirBnB in the Dail want a constricted market.

brickster69

German factory orders far worse than expected, Trump tariffs and a lack of competitiveness the main causes. Outside of covid it is the biggest slump in nearly two decades, as the country looks certain to be in a recession.

https://twitter.com/PiQSuite/status/1963844589485261247

Unemployment and bankruptcies also at a 10 year high. Hopefully they are not stupid enough to go with Trumps demands yesterday to sanction China

https://rmx.news/article/germany-on-the-brink-bankruptcies-and-unemployment-soar-to-highest-level-in-10-years-nearly-3-million-jobless/

thatsdaft

this thread in a nutshell