A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

CatLick

Ireland has a good performance/cost balance relative to a lot of locations. We ensure the former through our immigration/education system but the latter is where we will have problems.

timmyntc

Ireland is a low cost location for tech. Salaries are much lower here for similar performing employees as US.

And R&D tax credits mean all engineering salaries can be deducted from corporate tax each year.

Obviously India is cheaper in absolute terms, which is why MNCs always have an India branch with more staff than any other location, but next to India its usually Ireland.

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808488#Comment_123808488

I doubt costs are increasing at the same rate in every country as Ireland,, didn't intels expansion go away over projected costs for example,I am sure other companies are taking that into consideration when expanding or building.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808524#Comment_123808524

didn't intels expansion go away over projected costs for example

no?

A new FAB opened 2 years ago and Ireland is faring better than most Intel locations.

rogber

So where's this big global recession?

Are the stock markets going to crash?

Reading the analysis it seems basically nobody knows?

cleanfarmer2025

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808536#Comment_123808536

Not sure about that. I think the business post had an article a while back where the Ireland fab was blamed for their **** up in the latest iteration of chips.

I think that user is referring to Intel choosing Germany ahead of the Galway site. That's probably more down to bigger state subsidies from Germany but that plant isn't going ahead now anyways.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123807359#Comment_123807359

Imagine signing up to Nato and having to find $25 billion every year from somewhere.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808488#Comment_123808488

Yes, although the price level here is very high relative to non-MNC wages.

We have Danish prices without Danish wages.

Rents and elec prices are sky high.

But you are correct, mainly relative to the USA.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808591#Comment_123808591

I haven't seen it, but that's not really the point. Intel didn't cancel any expansion in Ireland that I am aware of, but they have cancelled expansions in other parts of Europe (including theoretically cheaper Poland). They are also bringing more chip manufacturing to Ireland.

The original point was that Ireland was at risk from tech downsizing (maybe) and moving to lower cost locations (not really).

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808545#Comment_123808545

That’s what’s I’ve been asking for a while

what would be the potential catalyst and how global is “global” hell some can’t even agree on what “recession” means despite a well defined definition

Some thoughts on potential triggers which we could see coming if following current affairs:

• WW3 - tho if this happens even at a fraction of scale of WW2 i suspect most of us would have bigger issues to worry about than this thread
• Some sort of ultra black swan, eg asteroid found on course in X years
• AI bubble bursting, tho I haven’t heard convincing arguments why this be any worse than dotcom bubble
• Some sort of financial f**kery maybe with crypto/stablecoins where some key banks get involved again
• Rule of law completely being dismantled in US with a king coronated
• Another pandemic with no route to vaccines, tho i suspect the response be very “meh” this time around

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808615#Comment_123808615

Imagine your job every day having to defend and shilling for murdering and raping criminals who started the largest colonial war in Europe since WW2 with NATO being the only organisation they are **** scared off.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808591#Comment_123808591

Cost of construction in Ireland was highlighted in an earnings call alright for their latest Fab development, but intels foundry woes and screw ups are usually borne out of Oregon.

Oregon campus is where most r&D happens for chips, then same process gets moved to selected fabs worldwide (usually China/Ireland/Israel).

ireland might see less of leading edge stuff now with push for more US based manufacturing and US govt buying a stake in Intel, but its unlikely they would shrink footprint in Ireland, just not invest further.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808591#Comment_123808591

The Ireland Fab is actually fabricating a great bulk of the actual sellable Intel processors. It's the Arizone Fab & Oregon R&D that has been plagued with development and manufacturing disasters. They had to cancel an entire node last year that they spent years and billions of dollars working on. Their work was so bad that they ended up having to utilise external foundaries to keep their manufacturing going. The Arizona fab are currently working on Intel 18A and the initial results appear to leave a lot to be desired.

Intel has tended to do a lot of their R&D and initial fabrication of the latest nodes in the US, with production shifting to fabrication plants like Ireland when they reach mass market adoption - i.e. where the bulk of their money is actually made. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Intel tried to shift a lot of the cutting edge R&D to the likes of Ireland over the next decade as the US has been a shitshow for the last five + years. They aren't as good at R&D as they used to be. That's why I don't really buy into any of this nonsense that Intel are going to start shutting down plants outside the US and centralise their operations.

What, they are going to start closing their profitable fabs and concentrate R&D exclusively on a graduate market that seems to be significantly falling behind its peers re. educational qualification and technical ability? If anything they need to grow their R&D operations outside the US.

thatsdaft

There gonna be case studies for decades to come in how MBAs taken over what once were great engineer led companies like Intel and Boeing and how these lads ran those companies into the ground to a point they needed bailouts while being completely out competed.

cleanfarmer2025

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123809112#Comment_123809112

The new CEO has a horn for Asia manufacturing.

There is now also the fact the US owns 10% and the CEO is almost 66 so won't be around that long.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808652#Comment_123808652

Based on what I've been reading and hearing, the AI bubble bursting is the most likely thing to lower stocks. Quite a few investors saying the insanely high valuations of tech companies are based largely on optimistic predictions about what AI will achieve in next few years. If those predictions prove false, markets could drop significantly. But still not so much to trigger a massive global recession, especially if then everyone stops panicking about losing their job to AI.

And if AI does deliver, then markets and productivity might continue to rise.

Seems it's anyone's guess

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123809129#Comment_123809129

The 10% stake that Trump is taking in Intel isn't a bail-out, it's a forced buy-in for critical defense reasons. However there's now a queue of industries like mining and rare earth processors lining up for these tax payer buy-ins. Wall Street seems to be treating Trumps nationalisations as free money.

As I said earlier if priced in Euros the US is already in recession.

riddles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123808436#Comment_123808436

IIncorrect, Pre covid Tech companies operated in a bubble of growth above all else. Growth without profit no longer looks attractive when money isn’t free — so investors demand profitability now, not just the promise of future profits. I know where I am a new location strategy has been developed and unfortunately Ireland isn't a primary location for net new investment / replacements if approved will go low cost first or a cheaper EU location.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123809382#Comment_123809382

Well while AI companies are overvalued unlike dot com era they do make boatloads of money quarter after quarter.

Maybe the start could be a combination of some of these potential triggers listed earlier cascading into each other

Example Scenario:

• China goes into decline (already not doing well) and the CCP promise of ever better lifestyles collapses, maybe due to a combination of Trump and new virus
• To distract from this China goes for Taiwan
• Their buddies in Russia, N Korea, Iran and maybe India coordinated fashion sensing an opportunity attack more of the neighbours causing multiple dumpster fires
• Ships start to get sunk left right and center cratering international trade
• Collapsing orders causes money to flee AI and Fintech like a tide going out exposing those who are naked
• This and mass layoffs triggers a civil war in US that’s already socially and politically like dry kindling
• **** just gets worse and worse from there
  

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123806008#Comment_123806008

I never claimed it did.

The point of the post was to explain why it didnt - i.e. a global recession which caused China to react.

The 2008/9 global recession you claim never happened.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123810105#Comment_123810105

I'm glad you've deigned to admit Australia did not enter a recession in 2008/09.

wassie

Again - I never stated Australia did not enter a recession in 2008/09.

If you think I did please quote me.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123809538#Comment_123809538

boatloads of money yes, but not boatloads of profit.

Yuuuge profits for AI suppliers like NVIDIA, Broadcom, Oracle, other datacenter suppliers.

But the AI SaaS businesses continue to hemorrhage money in the hope of future profit they are not able to even forecast yet.