A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123677507#Comment_123677507

Did you not say for European delivered LNG the price is $11 per MBtu? Which works out 8 cent or 0.2% more expensive than natural gas in Europe (a minuscule amount)

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123677557#Comment_123677557

And how much does the US exporter buy it for / MBtu ?

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123677318#Comment_123677318

So beside an anti EU conspiracy theoretician you are also now a hydrocarbon geologist and energy specialist 🙄

The fact remains there is plenty of gas in Europe accessible using new tech but extraction is banned in most countries including this one.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123677589#Comment_123677589

You asked how US LNG could be cheaper than Russian gas. You then supplied a chart showing US LNG is pretty much the same price as natural gas in Europe.

What the exporter pays doesn't seem to have much bearing on the LNG price as it appears to have settled to match/compete with current natural gas prices in Europe.

They cannot sell natural gas via pipeline to Europe so it's sold cheaply within the US (supply and demand dictates the price) Once they convert it to LNG they now have a commodity that can be freely traded worldwide and as such the value increases. This is basic stuff that you seem to struggle with.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123676881#Comment_123676881

Turns out the whole eurosceptic talking point endsup being exactly what I said it is earlier

A load of hot air for Trump and his minions to Trumpet

https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-600bn-us-investment-will-come-exclusively-from-private-sector/

Geuze

I have an interest in LNG.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_nus_m.htm

The LNG export price during 2025 is around USD 8.50 per thousand cubic feet, and has held up.

I note, in contrast, that the price by of US exports by pipeline has fallen this year

How much do we pay for existing pipeline imports?

yagan

An lng deal is more important for the US than Europe as there are other suppliers besides Russia that can undercut the US on price.

In the end the only losers are those paying his tariffs.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123672070#Comment_123672070

That is INSANE.

I shared it with some of my team (we're all techbros who work in finance for years) and none of them had seen it either.

Oscar_Madison

Ironically, when there are some clear signs that we’re entering choppy waters, between tariffs and AI and what not which will all impact on future employment, this thread has gone quite quiet. 😀

The average amount owed for 90 days or more by 176.000 households on their energy bills, is eur466

That’s a lot of people in debt.

The average mortgage drawdown is approx 360k euro- that’s up 100k from 2022. Crazy levels of debt around at present. Given historical performance yes a recession will likely happen - hopefully it won’t be another 2008 but debt levels are worrying

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/fears-of-arrears-crisis-as-record-number-of-families-are-three-months-or-more-behind-on-energy-bills/a249797653.html

yagan

Very downbeat piece by Fergal Finlay about the increasing risk of national violence in the USA and if such a state were to come to pass no doubt there would be an economic shock on this side of the Atlantic.

Even currently as the Swiss found out it's impossible to anticipate what's is affected and what is not by Trumps tariffs. One week essential medicines are exempt, the next they're not, but ultimately our biomed/pharma sector has a global market outside of the USA to sell to.

Nationally unemployment did tick up towards 5% recently.

greenfield21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715491#Comment_123715491

From an Irish perspective? Imo we are not going to see any recession or anything like it until we start seeeing a decline in US MNCs profits. Just look at big tech earnings over the last weeks, some of them are still growing like growth stocks and all that corporate tax coming into Irelands Coffers. We are experiencing an incredible boom all driven by this, until that changes Ireland is riding high.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715549#Comment_123715549

FDI into Ireland by US MNCs is up since Trump's reelection, many no doubt looking at spreading risk.

However any reversal will be felt nationally. It's amazing that pharma in Ireland only employs around 70.000 yet has such a huge contribution to the tax take.

On the other hand in 2006 15% of the workforce was in construction and another 7% in ancillary services to the building boom, so while a sectoral slowdown may hurt it won't feel like a national implosion.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715549#Comment_123715549

I think job losses and lack of hiring graduates will happen, and is happening first. The level of economic activity overall is down in many companies - things like AI and tariffs are making companies putting medium to long term investment on the long finger.

If you don’t have jobs you don’t have an economy

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715582#Comment_123715582

I'm really skeptical about AI, or at least the manner in which it's being lauded as a fix all for every sector.

It just seems like an excuse for every corporation to squeeze its existing workforce.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715640#Comment_123715640

I think a tipping point will happen with AI - right now a lot of people don’t know a whole lot about it. I’ve only dipped my toes in the water and I can already see huge time savings, better quality work outputs and faster time to delivery- it has to have an impact on jobs- I think until we start using the various tools we won’t know just how impactful it will be- but those who invented the god forsaken things are pretty adamant that AI will topple jobs- and that has me worried- they can see things I can’t currently

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715737#Comment_123715737

Thats the intent by those spruiking ai, create fear of missing out.

But at the end of the day you'll still be sueing the people whose failure of oversight of their AI led to a misdiagnosis.

The last big thing was crypto, and people are still trying sucker new fools there.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715791#Comment_123715791

Crypto is mostly garbage (I know I've been into it for years)

AI is quite different, it will definitely have a large impact at a minimum, especially on certain jobs and tasks within jobs.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715737#Comment_123715737

vested interests will always up speak its abilities, we ve no real clue what or what ai wont do, but theres a possibility investors may have over spoken its abilities and have over invested, yes it will more than likely cost some jobs, but it may not be the annihilator some speak of, time will tell, im skeptical myself, although i rarely us it

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123715851#Comment_123715851

It's a progression no doubt, but the AI bubble is its own circus.

Nvidia still needed to pay Trump 15% to export to China which may be futile considering China created its own cheaper Deepseek AI with just Chinese graduates, and even that's being superceded by cheaper models.

50% of US workers own shares compared to 15% in Ireland so we may not be used to this constant frenzy of promoting the next big thing, but we are reaping tax dividends today from educational investments in sciences decades ago.

There's many EU members with lower real CTA but they didn't invest in the science education required.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123716069#Comment_123716069

we ve invested well in the past in regards education, but its gains could be coming to an end, we ve become extremely exposed to external fluctuations, and not protected ourselves enough, we ve not invested sufficiently in our own indigenous industries, we ve not kept up with the investment for infrastructure required to maintain this momentum, we re very exposed now

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123716092#Comment_123716092

We have reached limits, but we can refocus because of external factors like a wide spread societal fragmentation of the USA.

Our land lord parties have had to share power to stay relevant so there is change due. Whether it will be sustainable change remains to be seen, but as the Canadian pm stated the post WWII western world we knew is gone.

Change is coming.

PokeHerKing

AI will be like every other human progression imo. It will change the employment landscape, wipe out certain roles but theyll be remodeled into other roles.

We evolve but we dont wipe ourselves out. If we do create mass unemployment then it really will be the time of the machines.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123717270#Comment_123717270

I don't think so this time. Most of those remodelled roles will also be able to be done by AI. This is at a different level to automation. AI will get more advanced way faster than we can adjust.

At a certain stage I think Democracy itself cannot possibly exist and most people will not even know or understand that it is gone.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123717281#Comment_123717281

modern societies and economies can only exist with a certain level of unemployment, after a certain point, and they start to collapse, if we dont appropriately react to such, it could in fact end humanity, so interesting times ahead…

CatLick

The Steam/Electric engine made loads of workers obsolete but also led to a huge range of new and much less expensive products. The silicone chip eliminated typists in a decade. Main difference here is that AI is an actor rather than a tool.…

timmyntc

AI is a hype machine. large language models as they are accurately known, are just a statistical guessing game to predict what comes next in a sentence. It gets better the more info you train it on,but the paradigm is fundamentally flawed. It is not 'intelligent', many research papers have shown these fatal flaws.

The biggest is that the so called "reasoning models" do not actually reason, they just give the illusion of thinking/reasoning, but accuracy drops hugely for problems not seen in training data - even if the prompt includes an example of how to solve that type of problem.

LLMs will replace most translators for sure, and has potential to replace search engines, but the actor/agent model will not take off, neither will the coding assistant once the prices rise to cover the cost of AI infrastructure. No path to profitability for anyone in an AI business other than NVIDIA who sell hardware, that says it all.

Tech valuations will drop hugely when the confidence runs out

riddles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123717281#Comment_123717281

AI is not being driven within an eco system. It is like the crusties releasing minks into the wild here when the Mink had no natural predator. The theory of Tech companies redistributing AI generated wealth back to the consumer to compensate for the loss of paid employment is a nonsense.

Wether or not tech companies selling AI are realising gains internally they will have to.release employees in advertised efficiency gain. Most likely hire in low cost countries so the salaried spend goes down.

Entry level.workflow processing roles are on the chopping block. Graduate employment roles already showing a big decline. Usage of GPT as a job aid whether it's in the approved form or not is significant in the company I work in.l

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123718259#Comment_123718259

Same in my company. At the start management were nervous about AI and discouraged it. That changed to ignoring it amd then to managers using it themselves. I see mediocre employees using AI significantly close the gap to good employees that are still avoiding AI.

yagan

It's like AI will do to businesses what social media did to social discourse, absolutely shred confidence.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123724876#Comment_123724876

maybe, but maybe not, who bloody knows, but if it causes significant unemployment, it wont necessarily matter, as there simply wouldnt be enough consumption occurring in order to maintain functioning economies in order to justify investments in ai