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Beef price tracker 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭KAMG




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭morphy87




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,304 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    The Factories are desperate for cattle but the is varying levels of desperation. If prices are back to €7 it just means they are desperate enough to pay €2/kg more than last year rather than 3.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭50HX


    A wet week are you having a laugh.

    There's a good share of heavy cattle moved on from these parts in the past 6 weeks...its been a sh1t show weather wise since mid July.

    The factories are dropping the price as the kill rises, kill has historically always risen at the end of grass season for finishers no?

    Not everybody is in a position to sit on stock & wait for price hike again, thats not a sustainable way to operate a business

    Factories,processors & supermarkets know full well where the bottom line is for them.

    They will screw producers & everyone else along the chain to maintain there margin, how many times have we heard of factories going on 3 day weeks this summer already.

    Margin per animal in your system is what leaves € in your pocket, not playing chicken with factories. Thats how alot of fellas went tit's up in the past.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭KAMG


    Thanks. I weighted them 5 weeks ago so have a fair idea of kill out weight. It's the grading and fat score that I'm unsure of.

    Post edited by KAMG on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭morphy87


    what breeds have you and what were their weights?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,812 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Dept weekly kill figures @Base price linked it to me a while back

    https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-agriculture-food-and-the-marine/collections/beef-kill-figures-weekly-reports/

    You will get it as well by goggling dfam weekly cattle slaughtering numbers

    A few months ago I went through the 2024 numbers from September on, and the slaughter numbers were 37k+ a lot of the time.

    We are gone 20k less in real terms

    If the big 3 can manage to buy at that price in the midlands its going to be impossible to stabilise for a while

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,833 ✭✭✭Robson99


    Good post 50HX.

    I've said it here on different occasions. Yo will not beat the factories. The mart was 100 to 200 better for finished cattle for 6 to 8 weeks and anyone that went got there win. But now the numbers are coming out from all sides and it's easy to cut the base price back. They weathered the storm by paying more in the marts to keep a lid on the price at the gate and also cut back to 3 / 4 day weeks. We can bitch and moan all we want but we cannot control it. What we can control ( speaking as a store to finish man) is what we pay for stores. And they will come back down as the price if beef falls. Once the feed lots have there sheds filled it may be a fair bit easier to buy back again.

    The current prices of all stock is not sustainable long term imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭green daries


    So the alternative is ........ ? No matter what happens next a bunch of lads are going out of farming and business at the moment the store man who's not tied to a contract is in serious trouble he's loosing money on buying now and selling finished if the price drops the calf man and weanlings/yearling man is goosed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 127 ✭✭nearlybreak


    headline on paper this morning says 40% of cattle coming from feedlots soon so it’s going to be a two tier price system and worse again it shows how much control they have



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,833 ✭✭✭Robson99


    There was none of them goosed 3 years ago when the price was around € 4 / kg. The store to finish man was making as much then as he is now but had a higher % profit due to the lower cost and is carrying a greater risk with his outlay. The weanling producer is the only one making money now.

    If beef went to € 9/kg lads would still bitch and moan saying the need €10. The higher the climb the greater the fall. Be careful what you wish for. Higher prices / outlay / risk breaks lads a lot quicker than low prices



  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭WoozieWu


    often heard someone has to lose in beef for another to make profit



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,663 ✭✭✭DBK1


    A very true saying and it’s one of the reasons I roll my eyes when I hear people giving out about the 4 movement rule.

    Every time an animal changes hands in a mart it’s costing €50 plus between mart fees for buyer and seller, transport to and from mart and also lost weight loss from the stress of being in the mart for the day. So an animal moved 4 times has €200+ taken from them and handed to marts and hauliers. This years exceptional prices aside that €200 has often been the profit to be got from an animal gone long before they’re ever hanging.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,663 ✭✭✭DBK1


    What you’re saying is all true but the only way to beat the factories is stay away from the marts. If lads had kept them finished cattle and forward stores at home the factory price would have had to stay rising to entice them out. Once they were being shown in marts there was no need to lift factory price.

    For every finished animal that made €100-€200 more than factory price there was an equivalent animal in the same mart making €100-€200 less so on average the factories were paying no more than factory price. I pointed it out numerous times here during the year and put up screenshots and all from the mart catalogues to prove that but a lot of lads only wanted to see the high prices and ignore the lower ones. That’s what has put the factories in the position they’re in now to be able to drop prices.

    In my opinion there should be no animal any bigger than a weanling sold in a mart. If the feedlots and factories want to make money from stock let them rear them and do the hard work themselves. There’s no point lads doing all the hard work rearing them to forward stores and then handing them away for the feedlots to do the easy part.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 4,582 Mod ✭✭✭✭Siamsa Sessions


    It's hard to know - if feedlots compete with each other for forward stores at the mart, would the farmer be better off selling to them rather than trying to finish himself only to then get the lower tier price off the factory where there's no competition.

    I guess every fella has to figure out what'll work for his system, depending on cattle type, shed space, weather, ground type, numbers he's carrying, time available (assuming he's working off-farm), cash-flow, and a dozen other things.

    Whatever you do, the feedlot or the factory won't lose out.

    Trading as Sullivan’s Farm on YouTube



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Dunedin




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭green daries


    Im not disagreeing with you but it is what's going to happen sucklers were in the red for years same with calf rearing everyone was changing or changed to runners and finishing it was the handy option as opposed to the other two alternatives. But it's going to bite lads on the ass now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭limo_100


    so the invoice from the factory just came today animal graded a p+ 1+ 190kg carcass so I assume his carcass was roughly 40-45% of his live weight.

    Just on a side note the fuckers only gave 2euro a Kg so they are making a fortune off them tb animals. I don't really care as I will be paid the balance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭KAMG


    The 4 that went this morning were AAX (592kg), BBX (676 KG), HEX (608 KG) and SIX (674 KG).

    The figure in brackets is their weight on 30 July. So 40 days at 1.5 KG a day average extra weight is what ill be basing my killout % on.

    Ill let ye know the results in the afternoon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,893 ✭✭✭morphy87




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭KAMG


    God no. I just about have time to load them. Haha.

    Day job is the priority at the moment.

    Gotta get all our December 2024 CT1 returns submitted to Revenue before the 23 September.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 918 ✭✭✭Conversations 3


    Article in the independent today. A few highlights from it:

    "With the kill at 26,229 for the week ending August 24, this looks like a concerted effort by factories to balance their books in September and possibly into October before they hit November and reassess the situation.

    By November, with the majority of grass cattle gone, the proportion of cattle coming from sheds and feedlots will have to rise dramatically.

    So are the factories succeeding in creating a “back-end” feel to the trade among sellers? The answer is yes, with quotes back 10-20c/kg across the country to €7.30/kg for bullocks and heifers if farmers will sell at it, although €7.40/kg looks more like it."

    "And just to top it off, reports indicate that from this week the Angus bonus will drop to €20c/kg"

    "The major headache for the factories remains throughput, however.

    With numbers processed back 53,000 to the end of August, even at 30,000 a week for the rest of the year that leaves processors looking at the overall kill for 2025 kill being possibly back 160,000 on last year"



  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭WoozieWu


    notice the wording used here in sharing these figures

    no inflammatory language used at all

    thats refreshing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 20,812 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Kill 27.5k for last week, 10k behind same week last year. Kill is going to be very high from now to Christmas. Processors will rack them and stack them. In a months time you could be waiting 2-3 weeks to get cattle killed.

    I have to respectfully disagree with you lads. From now on yes marts will not be the place for cattle. However for the last summer most of is had no choice but load up and go there.

    When cattle are ready they are ready, ya big well bred Continental cattle may carry a month but a lot of cattle stop dead at a certain weight.

    I was holding for a price during May and June gave the local processors a chance 7.10 he was quoting when it was 20-30c higher elsewhere. Moved to another factory and K/O went trought the floor. He was still quoting 7.1 base when I took 4 Frx heifers to the mart who made the equivalent of 7.35-7.4/ kg there I would have probably being lucky to average 6.95 in the factory.

    I tried again after that but no way it was the same BS. Agent getting thick with us because we would not sell at the low prices.

    Went back with a few but grading killing plain HE&AA cattle compared to mart price and absolutely no flat price unless you had numbers

    Admittedly last load would have done a tad better in the factory. I much perfer the factory but they really tried to ride the smaller lads this year.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,224 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It looks likely, Id say a lot of lads will look at renting out a place than having 40 cattle and a 100k to buy and carry them and maybe they not leaving enough to fill the car each week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 127 ✭✭nearlybreak


    farmers giving up to 7 euro a kg for them good weanling bulls in Ennis today now granted shippers are taking a lot of them too but at what beef price would they have to make in over a years time to turn a profit it just don’t add up to me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭Cavanjack


    would 1 1/2kg a day not be a bit optimistic?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,538 ✭✭✭epfff


    Does it matter to the buyer? Most of the golden ch are bought by agents getting their profit from hobby farmers that want nice cattle.

    I am sorta jealous as I think they are lovely to look at but I just still need to make profit on the farm.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 127 ✭✭nearlybreak


    fair point but they ain’t all going to hobby farmers and saw limousines a while ago 360 2540 lovely cattle but won’t they stand any man the bones of 3k next may and still a long way from anything and they were farmer bought



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 273 ✭✭KAMG


    AAX 321 KG (49%)

    BBX 395 KG (54%)

    HEX 332 KG (50%)

    SIX 356 KG (49%)

    I would think they didn't fully do 1.5 KG since 30 July going on these killouts but close enough.

    Overall, I'm very happy.



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