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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,753 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Good old Conor Skehan, can always be relied upon for a contrarian view on housing, we need more like him IMO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 11,981 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    McWilliams was generalising and spoofing. Kelly was crunching the numbers and his predictions were very accurate. He predicted both the housing crash and banking collapse. The so called Dr Doom never courted any fame was hated by a few scoundrels.

    The prophet of doom, but Morgan has the last laugh | Irish Independent

    He has been ridiculed, dismissed as a loony and his prescient predictions on the property crash were widely credited with provoking former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's bewilderment in 2007 at why people on the sidelines "cribbing and moaning . . . don't commit suicide . . ."

    In 2007, he wrote the iconic Irish Times column predicting that house prices would fall by 60pc. He was rubbished in many quarters, most notably by stakeholders in the property market.

    Jim Power, also a prominent economist during the boom, told the Sunday Independent a few years ago that "one of the biggest embarrassments of his life" was to be negative about Mr Kelly's property predictions on Prime Time.

    Anglo was on its way over the cliff but, publicly, the government was still talking about pumping in €1.5bn to keep it going. Morgan Kelly predicted that - based on the €80bn it had lent to developers - Anglo Irish Bank's losses would not be €15bn but could be twice that. The government's €1.5bn investment would "vaporise in months": "For all it will achieve, the money might as well be piled up in St Stephen's Green and incinerated," Mr Kelly wrote.

    One thrusting banker raged on the phone to his strockbroker friend, presumably oblivious to the fact that their phone conversation was being recorded on the bank's internal system. Their macho, chest-thumbing hubris as they stewed with indignation over the article will be familiar to followers of the Anglo Tapes.

    "Incinerate Morgan Kelly," said the stockbroker.

    Mr Kelly hasn't played up his celebrity economist status. He is an academic who studied at Trinity College and Yale University in the US, was an assistant professor at Cornell University, a lecturer at University College Dublin and is currently professor of economics there. He doesn't blog or tweet and appeared on television once. 

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 312 ✭✭purplefields


    The solution will be the same - more taxes. We can't have rich people slightly less rich.

    For me it is as if the 2008 bubble burst was 'patched up'. The underlying problems really are still there which is the unravelling of capitalism.

    2008 was 'fixed' by the people of Ireland forced to pay Income Levy, USC and LPT. Then we had Covid and the even more money was transferred to the rich. Now we are at the point of a huge global wealth gap, maybe worse than before WW1.

    Any one of Ukraine/Russia/Israel/Gaza spreading, Climate collapse, AI job loss, wacky Trump tariffs or some black swan event and the whole lot will come crashing down. Again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,562 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    capitalism will just be fine, it ll just morph into another form, and we ll move on, but this current, predominant form of capitalism, call it what you will, is morphing into something extremely destructive, and yes, the fundamentals that caused the crash in the first place, such as excess credit creation, are all still there!

    yup, all patched up, and not working at all, hence the rapid disintegration of our democratic processes and institutions, tis all good, it ll probably all end well!



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