DART+ (DART Expansion)

Yes, that’s the rough ballpark. DART+ aims to double the number of Commuter+DART journeys.

“DART+ is a transformative programme of projects that will double the passenger capacity for rail services in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA), from 26,000 passenger journeys per direction per hour to 52,000. ”
- DART+ Market process to help deliver DART+ Programme underway

75% would be a good estimate of non-DART+ vs DART+, so currently say 11.5 million (75% of 15.3 million) Commuter service journeys that will be replaced by DART, plus 21.3 already on DART = 33 million give or take*.

A doubling of that 33 million, plus growth in the meantime would make 75 million a reasonable high-level target. Ridership is still recovering, with a 10% increase in 2023 to 2024, but overall both DART and Commuter are still just a shade below 2019’s figures.

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* figures from here: Iarnród Éireann Annual Report Year Ended 31 December 2024).

If you want the official projections, the answer is 25-30 million additional journeys above a predicted 2043 ridership of something like 43 million:

The mode shift to public transport is delivered through a significant increase in rail passengers which is offset by a slight reduction in bus and Luas passengers. Introduction of DART+ will result in an increase in public transport patronage of around 15 million passengers per annum by 2043 with a reduction in road (private vehicle) demand. The shares for each public transport mode are presented in Figure 7.17 which shows a significant shift towards heavy rail with an increase in the region of 100,000-150,000 passenger boardings per day or 25-30 million per annum. Inclusion of BusConnects and Metrolink may erode some of this increase however it is likely that the model underestimates the shift to public transport so the impact of erosion may not be significant in reality

– DART+ Programme Preliminary Business Case.

A bit of maths shows the projected 45% increase in usage. Some more sums reveals that this study uses a baseline “do nothing” ridership of around 41-45 million in 2043. Let’s call it 43 million … but this is a seriously low estimate. (there’s a mathematical error in conversion of boardings per day to the range per year, so I had to work with a range).

Here’s why that’s such a lowball estimate: 2024 saw around 33 million actual boardings on DART and Dublin commuter (excluding the assumed 25% of commuter services are will be unaffected by DART+). The projection for 2025 is for another 10% growth overall, which means over 36 million boardings on DART and Dublin Commuter combined in 2025. I expect this growth to taper off after this year, but even an extremely modest 2% average growth between 2026 and 2043 would mean demand of over 50 million passengers per annum by 2043. That’s without adding any additional services. At that level of demand, the DART/Commuter network would be capacity limited without DART+. Double the capacity by increasing frequency, and you’ll easily hit 75 million by the 2043 deadline. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it reached that within 5 years of DART+ opening.

Now, you’re going to be surprised, but: MetroLink is not modelled in this final business case, and neither was BusConnects - and this is because because business cases have to be considered in isolation. Otherwise, you’d end up with a house of cards where the loss of funding for one project immediately makes many others impossible to justify and you’re left with nothing. Metro was considered in the option selection: versions of each scheme were analysed with and without Metro to arrive at a preliminary benefit-to-cost ratio.

I actually think that once Metro and DART+ are operating, it will make the case for DART Underground. Back in 2018, the tunnel’s high capital cost (nearly as much as the rest of the programme put together) counted against the tunnel’s otherwise good BCR of approximately 2.0 (2.3 overall for DART+ with tunnel).