Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

The UK won't risk it.

The beef is just a story to fool MAGA muppets into thinking Trumo got something for the farmers

Probably Won't see any beef make it to England.

Well, the UK has got an agreement to make a deal. They don't actually have a deal yet, and won't for some time. And it this point we only know some of what's going to be in the dearl.

(So why was it announced now, which seems premature? Reportedly, because Trump was desperate for an announcement, which seems plausible. And the UK wasn't averse, which also seems plausible.)

Is it result of Brexit? Yes, obviously, in the sense that they wouldn't have been able to make a separate UK/US deal, but for Brexit.

You say that, without Brexit, "they would have had to wait for whatever deal the EU and the US come up with". They would indeed. As it is, they have to wait for whatever deal the UK and the US come up with. It's not obvious that that's a better position to be in.

To be fair to the UK, the particular terms of the deal which have been announced at this point are more favourable to the UK than to the US:

• Zero US tariffs on UK steel may make the difference between solvency and insolvency for British Steel.
• A 10% tariff on UK cars is better than the 27.5% that EU cars currently face (though, NB, it is still four times higher than the tariff that applied until Stupid Thursday). But there's a cap of 100,000 on the number of UK cars that can be imported to the US. That's about the current level of UK car imports, so effectively this locks UK car makers out of growing their US market (which has shrunk in recent years; only a few years ago they were exporting more like 200,000 cars a year to the US).
• The UK agreement to admit a quota of US beef tariff-free is significant because it allows the UK to maintain its food standards and only admit US beef which satisfies them — that's an important concession by the US, and one that the UK will argue sets a precedent when they get on to discussing chicken. (The EU will undoubtedly seek to treat it as a precedent also.)
• UK was not required to drop or modify its digital services tax — another significant concession by the US.

Bottom line is that Trump badly needed to announce a trade deal, and the UK pressed home its advantage to get agreement to better terms than might have been available at a time when Trump was less needy.

But the other bottom line is that this is nothing like the kind of trade deal that Brexiters (delusionally) asserted would justify the economic impact of Brexit. This is a limited roll-back of a few of the tariffs announced on Stupid Thursday. The draft deal creates certain exceptions, but the general tariff rate applied by the US to imports from the UK remains at 10%, with the thread of a signficant increase 90 days after Stupid Thursday. The economic benefit of this deal will be trivial, in relation to the economic impact of Brexit.

Offering this as a "Brexit benefit" would be like losing a €50 note and then, while hunting for it, finding a one cent coin. Sure, finding the cent was the result of losing the €50, but it really just draws attention to the magnitude of your loss.

What they're agreeing about agri standards already exists between the EU and other countries like NZ. I see the tory leader calling a youth mobile scheme freedom of movement, so does that mean she wants to end working holiday visas to the UK for Aussies?

they already are making noise over it. The tories have a video up about it being a betrayal and Julie whatshername has called it a surrender of sovereignty etcetera. It’s pointless trying to work with them as any cooperation with that the EU is seen as surrender. **** them would be my attitude.

It suits the EU very well to be doing deals with AnyoneButTrump, because an AnyoneButTrump deal will be properly formulated and enforced. Keeping the UK close to the EU's idea of how things should be done is a great way of keeping Trump's poisonous influence at a safer distance.