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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    Covid has turned this country into a total welfare state.

    In the last couple days I've now seen RTE run the topic of supports as the main story. Paschal for example is top story saying a wage subsidy scheme is not being considered FOR NOW.

    Paul Murphy on saying supports are needed and the energy credits for everyone need to happen again next winter.

    IBEC saying supports are needed now.

    It's a joke. A large percentage of the country now can't survive without welfare payments.

    Something is majorly wrong with the Irish psyche of the last few years. I would say it's gone worse than the Celtic Tiger as now it's spread to nearly everyone. Everyone expects the state to pay them and keep the boom going.

    I was reading the mortgage Ireland page on facebook today and there's people getting loads of upvotes saying to buy now because even if there's a housing crash, the government will HAVE to help people pay their mortgage as so many will be in debt.

    There is now ZERO accountability or personal responsibility in Ireland once again. It's like people don't even read the t's and c's of their mortgage…IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS YOU MAY LOSE YOUR HOME. If you're not happy with that, then don't get a mortgage!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,951 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    security of accommodation is one of the most critical of needs, without which, humans simply cannot function, but modern society has turned our property markets into a giant casino, whereby only a small percentage actually truly gain from the speculation of these critical markets, hence why we are where we are! its now collapsing, i.e. we re now no longer capable of providing this critical need to a rapidly growing number of people, so…..

    over the past few decades, the cost of property has escalated rapidly due to this speculative approach, to the point, income has completely decoupled from the value of property, hence why…..

    …oh and our governments have done everything in their abilities to encourage and facilitate this outcome, and still are!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 661 ✭✭✭engineerws


    Debt to Gdp can fluctuate but gross debt remains and must be paid. That's why the troika were in Ireland, the only difference is that if we had a similar crash we'd be completely bunched because of our gross debt which is obvious when viewed through the lens of debt per capita.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    No, fed up of getting shafted for trying to be responsible and not living on the border line.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,327 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    We even saved and made the reckless developers richer within NAMA. They couldn't lose. They were paid to be insolvent. NAMA was also a great club for rich people to buy "distressed" assets at knock down prices. We have no idea.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 510 ✭✭✭Murt2024


    ah it’s okay hun, if you didn’t like the new three bedroom council house, they’ll be plenty more coming, I only took the third house choice the offered me as the first two didn’t have a dishwasher or stove installed and garden was too small along with the pantry. You’ll get there hun, Governement have to house us xxx

    PS: just pay the monthly rent of 200 every three months to keep them a bit happy, they won’t kick you out. That’s what we all do hun, nothing they can do xxx



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan


    You could run for the Dail on the "exterminate the elderly" ticket.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 661 ✭✭✭engineerws


    https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/markets/billionaires-poised-to-lose-near-half-trillion-dollars-in-2-days/ar-AA1CjWat

    Interesting the recent spin that Trump is helping the rich even though the 500 richest have lost half a trillion in two days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    Trump doesn't look to be helping the rich or the poor, or anyone in between.

    Beverly Hills, California



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Big Asian sell off continuing. HK down almost 10%. The markets can adjust to bad policy, but it's the moron factor that's really causing the uncertainty and damage

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,443 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    We are potentially talking about the end of globalisation.

    Is this more important than sport?

    All day Saturday, the main item on RTE news bulletins was the funeral of a GAA person.

    I find this unbelievable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan


    We're talking about the end of US globalisation.

    The damage is done. Even if Trump died on the golf green today they'd still elect a populist moron again.

    That doesn't mean there won't be global trade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    The US is basically the driver of that though.

    All the pensions of people in Ireland will have heavy investment in the US stock market.

    Our whole economy is driven by US companies.

    Our lives are lived on global platforms. Reddit, Twitter, Facebook, Netflix. Go to the cinema, it's American movies.

    If that ends, there is no way we can just potter on and leave the fallout for the yanks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan


    I have used all the above mentioned at one stage or another, but there was a life before them and don't use them now.

    And american movies? Maybe twenty years ago they might have still been relevant but it's being all crap franchise and remake since then.

    Although season two of Trump has been hilarious although I doubt there's much left in the tank now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 364 ✭✭poop emoji


    History is gonna be made today if we have (premarket is in meltdown) a third day of 4% losses on S&P

    MAGA Red Monday

    Looks like we heading for another wipeout seeing how Asian and European markets already reacted

    IMG_5781.jpeg

    Last seen during Great Depression



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    I don't see a way for the market to return anything like those post dump gains either. 3 weeks, 10%? No way if Trump doesn't pivot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,927 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ass others pointed out its the end of the US being involved in or having control over globalisation, even if he rows back on all of this today, which he wont, everyone is just going to start doing business around them as they are now agreed to be too untrustworthy and unreliable. They have lost their position at the head of the table and I doubt they will ever be able to get it back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 112 ✭✭Barry_Soweto


    The rest of the world can't afford to be without the US.

    The reason US companies are so strong is because of de-regulation and investment capital.

    A facebook or instagram could never be founded and grow into a massive company in the EU. Too many regulations to adhere to in the early stages which stunts growth. You have multiple countries across the EU with their own different laws and regulations then.

    If you launch a business in the US, your market is instantly 350m people. If you launch a business in Ireland, your market is 5m people. Want to expand to France? Need to worry about translations, works councils, exports.

    In the US, failing is not seen as a bad thing. You build a company, it fails, you go again and start fresh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 364 ✭✭poop emoji


    One could say they don’t hold all the cards?

    I’ll get my coat



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan


    Plenty of Irish producers have expanded rapidly via their products spreading across the EU and beyond via lidl and Aldi supply chains.

    Europe tends to have more non publicly traded companies, like lidl and Aldi.

    At one stage around 2011 the Australian banking had a higher capitalization value than all the publicly traded EU banks.

    A lot of EU banks are private.

    Plus infrastructural wealth is higher in Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,443 ✭✭✭Viscount Aggro


    Its a bad time to sink 50 million into a whiskey distillery in Kildare.

    Just ask Bono.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    Germany coming out saying no cherrypicking specifically mentioning whiskey. Harris saying tech would be an unnecessary escalation. And the response might be delayed till the end of the month.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,951 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ….again, the wealthy not only can be asset rich, but liquid/cash rich, this means during downturns, they tend to rock up and use their cash to purchase even more assets, yes, they are currently losing an astonishing amount of perceived wealth from the valuation of their assets, but they know, when the dust settles, they can go on a big asset shopping spree, on the cheap, so is he helping the rich, including himself, you bet yea!

    …then theres the not so rich, i.e. average mary and joe, do you think theyre in such a privileged position in a downturn!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 661 ✭✭✭engineerws


    Just asked manus.

    Based on comprehensive research from multiple authoritative sources, we find that current wealth concentration levels are remarkably similar to those that preceded the Great Depression, with the top 1% controlling approximately 31% of total wealth today compared to about one-third of wealth in 1929.

    The golden age of the USA was probably 1950/60 in terms of scientific progress and civil rights movement.

    The top 1% get an even higher share of the income than in 1929

    https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality

    So we have precedent. The caveat is the precedent is not guarantee but your argument is that the man who managed to become USA president is a moron and we should not believe that trade barriers could cultivate industry in the USA because Trump is a moron.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,951 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    my sentiment on him being a moron is based on the fact, hes actually severely emotionally stunted, hes claiming that hes helping those that have been significantly negatively impacted from these rising wealth inequalities, but the reality is, hes doing the exact opposite, and he simply doesnt care, hence this severe emotional stunting. hes clearly seriously unemphatic towards his base, he has never truly experienced a complete lose of ability to financially support himself and his family, a common problem for his base, i.e. he has no idea what its like to simply lose everything, yes hes bankrupt many businesses, but hes never been completely broke, and no ability to provide himself with his most critical of needs, and never will, due to his overall accumulation of wealth.

    …again, he will not be severely negatively impacted from his current decisions, but many, if not, most of his base will be, many are gonna lose their jobs and businesses, many will lose their accumulated assets, homes etc, but trump, he ll do just fine, he will ride off into the sunset, and be just absolutely fine!

    …so in my opinion, yes, hes a severely ignorant and selfish moron!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84 ✭✭Noworries!


    Your argument is that people who struggle with emotions or are emotionally stunted or lack empathy are morons? That's an unusual take on autism...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,951 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i have autism myself, and i know plenty of folks with the disorder that are the complete opposite to this, and i am myself, most people with the disorder are in fact highly empathic! trump more than likely has a cluster b personality disorder, and theres also a very good chance musk has to!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,637 ✭✭✭yagan




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84 ✭✭Noworries!


    Lol, absolutely, I can't see how anyone would argue against that. I would probably describe him as worse. I disagree with the casual use of discriminatory language to describe him however. What are your thoughts on discriminatory language being used to describe people in a demeaning fashion?



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