A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

PixelCrafter

I think at this stage it's inevitable - the systemic shock of those tariffs is going to cause a disruption to global trade and I don't really see a rush of companies trying to jump into the arbitrary chaos that is the US either.

My guess is we'll just see a stagnation in investment generally and a lot of risk averse position holding for the next couple of years at least.

If you add in probably consumer reluctance to spend and falling spending power, you'll be into a very significant recession.

I think Trump also lives in the 1940s/50s in his head. The US is still big - but it's not the only show in town by a long shot, and it's not structured like he thinks it is nor is global trade. He's going to just end up isolating the US, destroying its position as a hub of trade and tbh most of this is totally without any precedent. It's very hard to predict.

mumo3

I wonder how many people will claim they didn't see it coming…. I work in the Finance/Construction Industry we have been watching this for a while, I remember a meeting with our accountants March of last year telling us what we need to start doing in preparation for a recession coming down the tracks!!

The company I work for has survived two recessions (80's & 00's) so they feel comfortable about keeping afloat, but have stated it will be rough

feelings

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325566#Comment_123325566

"massively down"

I just did a quick check for you across several sites.

Gas, Oil average across all state has stayed the same since Trump took office, ticking up slightly in March 2025.

Lumber prices increased each month since Trump took office, reaching a 30 month high in March 2025.

Egg prices have increased by 30% since Trump took office, reaching a record high in March 2025.

Cost of living continues to rise. Unemployment rose in Feb (march results not available it seems).

Stock market crashing since Trump took office.

Seems to be a running theme here? Or is it all "fake news"? 😏

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325980#Comment_123325980

Regardless of Trump, the economy will eventually stagnate and reverse, our economy especially has been heated up too much. Recessions come and go, 00's was a global financial crash its quite different.

yagan

While there will be turbulence it really is more of a realignment of global trade flows, obviously away from the tariff frictions.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325980#Comment_123325980

This is entirely unnecessarily self-inflicted damage from one deranged but powerful man. There was nothing inevitable about any of this.

mumo3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326058#Comment_123326058

You would be shocked at the amount of companies that handed back keys to sites last year when the contracts they where about to start got hit will all the increases in timber and cable…. the government eventually stepped in but the amount of sites that never started or where really late starting was shocking, because once a contract is signed its very hard to re-negotiate when the cost of materials goes up. And yes you do take increases in cost into account when doing contracts but those increases were mental.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325566#Comment_123325566

The USA has much better worker protections in terms of welfare.

You are eligible to receive Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits, you will receive a weekly benefit amount of approximately 50% of your average weekly wage, up to the maximum set by law. As of October 1, 2024, the maximum weekly benefit amount is $1,051 per week.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326043#Comment_123326043

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/commodities-gauge-slumps-by-most-since-2022-on-trump-tariffs

Falling by the minute.

Its amazing how slow some things are to react. The banks in Ireland will have approved mortgages this weeks for people who will be jobless by the start of July. If your a builder you need to get s job in London,Auz or NZ asap. Countries with 10% tariffs will have some chance compared to us.

Barry_Soweto

Stock markets are crashing again today due to China announcing tariffs on the US.

Amazon, Intel, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google,Eli Lilly, Mastercard all down between 3 and 8% pre market.

Eurostox50 is down 4.5% currently.

Vicxas

This is going to be a long couple of months

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326184#Comment_123326184

Average bear market is 12 to 18 months

Right now the bear is twerking on the faces of those who bought into Trump nonsense

yagan

VIX up past 40, last time was the pandemic and before that the financial meltdown in 2008.

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325639#Comment_123325639

Housing affordability is poor in the USA

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/housing-has-become-less-affordable-across-all-us-metros/

By destroying the economy, USA becomes less attractive to immigrants and likely emigration would increase. Pressure on housing stock might reduce in such a scenario for those that can keep their jobs.

A return of manual labour factory jobs due to tariffs could help a significant sector too. It's hard to see agricultural and factory labour moping up all the unemployment but who knows what will happen.

Maybe if the dollar loses its reserve currency status, the American economy will become less dependent on fintech and more on innovation.

I've been back and forth since 1998 and the USA is becoming a **** hole. Maybe tariffs etc. will stop the rot maybe not. I guess we'll see.

For a lot of people owning a home and a car and having a decent school are probably sufficient for them to be happy but such simple things are now out of the reach of vaste swathes of people and that upsets family, friends and neighbors too.

mayordenis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326320#Comment_123326320

First point, not really, if you're comparing it to el salvador or eritrea or something, the economy is not going to get so bad that the US won't still be enticing to migrants fleeing from unstable, dangerous regimes. I'm sorry but it's facile thinking, housing market could come down a bit, leaving current recent owners at high prices in negative equity, so a negative on either side for sure.

Unemployment is already low, so you're now talking about unemployment that might be caused by this? Industry is relatively slow moving, even in deregulated places, you don't set up a plant in a short time frame, you would be talking about significant human movement to wherever this imaginary new industry that is set up, in what timeframe, 2 years/3 years? There are huge amounts of people working in government, working in import reliant businesses, but **** them I guess?

No reason to believe the dollar will lose that status, has been postulated every couple of years, for no real reason, would involve significant cost and realignment in so many markets, why bother? Why is fintech another large service industry being made out to be a bogeyman here?

There is no silver lining here, free trade was solved a long long time ago, it is one of the cornerstones of a functioning economy, and has been a major driver of getting our living standards to where they are today. Everything is connected, nobody gets to pull these levers and hope it effects one or two things in a positive way with zero repercussions elsewhere. This is way below partisan politics, we are into the realms of junior cert economics here, and we seem to be struggling to grasp that.

Banzai600

its too early to tell whats going to happen or how things will pan out.

There will be initial fallout that will come quick, as said, kneejerk ? if consumer sentiment is shaky , like toilet paper - the panic may spread quickly.

i reckon the Donald and his crew have an additional plan in place, whatever that may be, they have everyone on their toes now, as this cant be it what they laid out…..im not convinced - there has to be more to come ? OR they are hoping ppl will want to negotiate , go back to bartering ?!

but i would be of the opinion, that EUROPE - the German & French dictatorship - wont give two hoots about us here. after all look the enormous bitter pill of 80+ billion euro we swallowed back in 2009/2010 - that was soon forgotten about. we were told by the ECB and Trichet, "Move along paddy, you've no say. Do what you're told! " back then our country were also told we'd be sent into the stone age if we didnt shore up the banks ? we all remember it well, there will be cash to be had, the government shaking in their boots, they were passed beyond their depth. And the germans denied lobbying the ECB to make us shell out. my point being , ireland wont be under any consideration when it comes to the greater good of europe. And i would hope id be proved wrong.

8-10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325636#Comment_123325636

In fairness oil is a bit of a special case as you likely know. If the dollar weakens, no matter the cause, oil goes down. It's basically the only commodity that is globally traded in only 1 currency: the dollar. So if the dollar is weakened oil will always follow. Because it doesn't matter who is buying or selling it's all done in $

Barry_Soweto

Simon Harris meeting Howard Lutnick next week.

What exactly can Harris do that has any meaningful impact?

We can't buddy up with the EU and then expect special treatment when the US thinks lowly of the EU. Just not going to happen.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325980#Comment_123325980

There won't be a recession in the traditional sense for as long as Central banks/ federal reserve keep underwriting all the failing businesses. The powers that be would rather have hyper inflation than to have a quarter of the workforce jobless like in 2008.

What we are experiencing now is a recession of stealth - we are working but our buying power is reducing every year...

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326647#Comment_123326647

If Europe abandons us again. Dont think the public will like it too much considering we're not talking a thousand years ago the same happened. Being called piggs didn't help

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327896#Comment_123327896

Not stagflation anyways

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327937#Comment_123327937

It was Piigs, and "Europe" didn't coin the phrase nor did they abandon Ireland.

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327960#Comment_123327960

Thats worse. No just a big iou.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327971#Comment_123327971

Your definition of abandonment is not being given 60B€ for free?

They gave us a loan that was desperately needed when nobody else would. I have plenty of issues with the troika policies, but that is very different from emotive nonsense about being abandoned.

Barry_Soweto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327896#Comment_123327896

This is true - 2008 has given them the formula. Print and erode currency. It will lead to inflation and erosion of any purchasing power but they will take that over job losses. If someone is working their balls off but their pay is worth 10% less than last year, there is unhappiness but nothing major. But if companies forced employees to take a 10% paycut there'd be mayhem.

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327993#Comment_123327993

Deceptive isnt it. Wonder why each successive generation has less

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327984#Comment_123327984

Heres the bill. Sink or swim. Even with favourable interest rates. Stockholm syndrome is strong with some😁 emotive eh??

Deub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328031#Comment_123328031

Stockholm syndrome is strong

Really? EU was so bad to Ireland overall?

Your post is overly dramatic. It is a relationship that is working.
Is everything perfect? Of course not,like any relationship. However, Ireland got a lot more benefits than disadvantages.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327875#Comment_123327875

We are a small open economy. Either way we can't live for a sustained period with a 20% tariff from the US. There is no getting around it, our economy will be devastated. It is in our interests to have those tariffs removed immediately.

If we can get side deal alleviation especially in the face of some European countries that want to thump their chests and get involved in a trade war that will damage us most then that is clearly in our national interest.

I'm all for bilateral engagement with the US to see what can be done.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328186#Comment_123328186

Services are not impacted, only goods.

And people in US buying Irish goods like kerrygold or Guinness are already paying a premium over US products, so they are likely to continue since they can afford it.

Medical equipment is exempt from tariffs so most of our medtechs who export to US are ok, and right now pharma has not been hit either.

We have not been hit with anything particularly bad. Stop doommongering