A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

riddles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123327984#Comment_123327984

The loan went in part to repay debt to German and Belgium pension funds who jumped into our party in some cases with unsecured non recourse loans - our USC charges went towards repaying some of that. We have all worked at year of our lives since and for those of us who didn’t borrow recklessly also paid off our own debts.

Germany looks after Germany and has grubby business practises. It’s not without irony Europe is now talking about significant increasing of defence spending. If we think back to 2008 how Germany was leeching off Greece for years through its massive defence spending largely spent on German military equipment.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328312#Comment_123328312

Oh no, we paid back people we took loans off. Borderline criminal behaviour from the nasty Germans to accept that.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328186#Comment_123328186

Given the fact that Trump is the most unreliable of people going, even if we managed to achieve such a deal then there's no guarantee who doesn't feck us over the next day. So ya, I'm inclined to say we should work with the EU rather than trusting in Trump liking us for more than half an hour...

riddles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328447#Comment_123328447

a very liberal interpretation of we and repayment requirements but anyway whatever

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328447#Comment_123328447

??

The majority of debts taken on were from the bad banks - the state had no obligation to take on those but it was primarily German pressure to do so as they would have been out of pocket had Ireland Inc not done so.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123329945#Comment_123329945

The only pressure was to apply single market rules, the bank guarantee had to be offered to all registered banks in Ireland and not just the domestic six.

Level playing field, thems the rules.

engineerws

I thought this sums up well the current push for a US recession.

https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1907990747552358410

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123329945#Comment_123329945

The bank debt guarantee was roundly hated by the rest of the EU. It was a gamble taken by Ireland that massively didn't work. The state had no obligation to take on any of it.

I don't really see the issue with countries pushing for their interests though. We weren't forced into any of this.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123330262#Comment_123330262

this admin has no clue what its doing, trump is surrounded by a whole pile of yes lads, so nonsense on top of nonsense, folks such as trump wont be serious negatively impacted by a recession, in fact, theyll do very well out of it, and naturally, since a narcissist never accepts fault, he ll ride off into the sunset, not giving a single fcuk that the place is burning down!

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123330870#Comment_123330870

”I tried to save The USA, I almost did, I got closer than any one could have…..but sleepy joe had done too much damage”

Viscount Aggro

Irish Whiskey industry was looking shakey before all of this.

Wasnt there a few distillery closures in the last year?

There are too many brands competing.

_Kaiser_

I've already noticed that a few grand has been wiped from my pension fund in the last few weeks. As I'm getting closer to where I will be taking some of that out (months, not years) Trump's antics couldn't be at a worse time for me personally.

Jobs may be safe - for now - and we have a tendency to ignore a lot of things in this country (I have several otherwise very smart and very educated friends who never read any form of news outside of what they might see on social media, and who have no interest whatsoever in political affairs beyond superficial commentary), but the point is that these tarriffs and possible trade wars will affect everyone, and as above, in fact already are.

riddles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123330578#Comment_123330578

seemingly all the money used to create NAMA has been recouped - the money used to bail out the banks recouped, seemingly. Property prices are on or plus 2008 levels and yet we have 5 times the national debt we had pre 2008. Any tax payer from pre 08 has worked minimum a year for nothing. In that time a certain elite got big debt write downs and some noted people gambled and lost but retained expensive houses all at taxpayers expense.

We can still however amazingly afford 2-5 billion a year on the fake migrant bonanza for some. We will before long have a tax payer ratio dropping from 5-1 to 2 to 1 and laughably Trump is the mad man

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331042#Comment_123331042

Our debt to gdp in 2007 was 27%, now it's 42% - less than half the EU average

Sierra Oscar

It'll be worth keeping an eye on US treasury bond yields in the next week or so. They've declined steeply in recent days. The last time US treasury bonds were in freefall in 2023 it took out three regional banks in the US. There is still some scepticism regarding the health of the regional banking system in the US.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331193#Comment_123331193

And it was around 100% in 2010.

If I just picked 2010 and now it looks like great progress was made.

BTW, there was nothing normal about the bertie bubble years, although I can imagine some people never recovered from the ability to borrow recklessly from their own future.

Anyway back on topic the basic 10% tariff on the world started this weekend. So there's US importers who'll have to pay an extra 10% to release their goods. There's probably raw commodity consignments at sea right now that are getting orders to change course for another buyer if US importers are selling it off before it reaches port.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331193#Comment_123331193

Our GDP is not a good metric. Even CSO use debt to GNI* now, which is 75.9%

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331459#Comment_123331459

Yeah but was addressing the 5 to 1 ratio.

Estimates on Irelands debt to GNI ratio in e.g. 2007 put it on around 30% (with 76% now)

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331626#Comment_123331626

What was it in 2010?

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123330870#Comment_123330870

Wealth is extremely concentrated in the US similar to the crash in 1929. Maybe a crash is needed because the USA is not in a good place. I don't have the answers but the certainty here annoys me.

We regularly have people here describing how Elon musk, the richest person in the world, is a fool.

Listening to media pundit economists on the radio, they don't know what will happen. Neither do I.

I'm not convinced Trump and his cabinet are morons, they've already done evil things but stupid?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331725#Comment_123331725

Dunno but the original point was about pre 2008 compared to now, so I took peak 2007 as a comparison

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331835#Comment_123331835

Those peak bubble years aren't great for any comparison, except for notions.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331808#Comment_123331808

yes wealth is extremely concentrated, but that doesnt mean a crash will start resolving this critical problem, it more than likely will have the opposite effect, again, wealthy individuals such as trump and his posy gain greatly from such downturns, while the average joe and mary start losing their jobs and businesses, and of course their pension funds also get a hammering.

musk clearly has intellectual intelligence, but the reality is, hes also narcissistic, therefore emotionally thick as fcuk, or what we d call, ignorant, such folks have embedded thinking that public/state bodies are always completely incompetent, and a simple waste of taxpayers money, noting such wealthy folks pay as little of those taxes, and are simply so wealthy, dont actually need the critical services those public/state bodies provide, but you can be damn sure, average mary and joe critically do need such services, especially when the economy is in the sh1tter! so yes, hes a fool!

yes, nobody has a clue what happens next, as the world has never truly experienced such a situation, especially the fact, our global trade is far more complex than it ever has been, so we ve nothing to compare it to, no historically situations of true similarity.

its clearly obvious trump and his cabinet are complete morons, theyve chosen to ignore virtually all respected advice on the dangers of tariffs and trade wars, and what they were warned of, is now developing in real time, its highly likely america, and many other parts of the world, will soon be experiencing significant recessions, due to their decisions, even their calculations of percentages of tariffs have no bases what so ever, in any economic sense, i.e. theyve no clue what theyre doing, and are making it up as they go!

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331808#Comment_123331808

Economic crises tend to result in the mega wealthy only growing in wealth. You might have some millionaires hit but it's primarily the working and middle class that are getting hit seriously. The likes of Bezos or Zuckerberg will get temporary hits or exploit the event. So it's not gonna end up as some kind of a rebalancing.

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123331193#Comment_123331193

We've one of the highest debt per capita globally.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2024/0221/1433559-public-debt-report/

It always annoys me when people ignore this statistic. Debt to Gdp can change dramatically if Gdp reduces.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332033#Comment_123332033

And sometimes the wealthy get the guilotine.

That CEO who was shot I'm sure thought he was above the common folk.

greenfield21

People are really getting desperate now rambling on about the elites. If anything the so called elites have sold out at the expense of the common people. This Admin is trying to create fairer trade for the US and take the long term view. That's the goal. The trade imbalances were always going to create political instability in the US, no one was going to allow whole sectors of the economy disappear without this creating issues, that's why we have Trump.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332046#Comment_123332046

It is a meaningless statistic and should be ignored. The top 30 of the list is dominated by rich Western countries and the bottom half of the table is basically entirely very poor, highly populated nations. Absolutely nobody is out there going "gee, I wish we had an economy more like Burundi".

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332046#Comment_123332046

That particular figure is impacted by multi-nationals and the fact that we're a finance hub. It may look big on paper but Irish people aren't on the hook for a lot of it.

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332111#Comment_123332111

No, they're absolutely not trying to rebalance the system when the poor get punished. They wouldn't be going after healthcare if they were... There's a lot of fantasies about the aims of Trump, the rapist in chief isn't trying to make day to day costs more affordable. He's punishing those who are poor. In 12 months time, the average American system will have poorer spending powers while facing job losses due to a self administered recession.