A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Juran

Todays news so far:

Intel Kildare lay offs.

StenaLine axeing Rosslare-Cherbourg route.

Tourism to Ireland in May 2025 down 10% on May 2024.

Sales in mens underwear has decreased (globally).

Its starting to feel like 2008 ...

SuperBowserWorld

"Sales in mens underwear has decreased (globally)."

That might explain the drop in birth rates too. 😁

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593214#Comment_123593214

or has sales in womens increased!

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593205#Comment_123593205

cant see a major global financial crisis, irish banks are also extremely well capitalised, including with record deposits, so just cant see it at all, of course there could be a global slowdown and recession, which i suspect is whats gonna happen, but probably nowhere serious as 2008, concerning all the same though

yagan

It's like the likes of Intel that kept adding jobs when the construction led sectors imploded in 08.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593413#Comment_123593413

im just not convinced of these analogies at all, large corporations go through periods of down scaling, been through it myself before, its just refocusing, tightening up a little, its very likely corporate investment is gonna tighten globally for the next couple of years, until the chap across the pond moves on, theyll probably loosen up a bit then and start increasing investment again, i.e. possible just a light slowdown/recession

Widdensushi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593413#Comment_123593413

Isn't there an investigation or something into that, there was definitely some controversy, not it's a good example to highlight .

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593413#Comment_123593413

Intel globally reduce workforce by 20%. Ireland reduce by 4%.

I know of another large multinational who axed a project employing 350 people here and have absorbed the entire workforce into other areas and are still hiring into open roles

rob316

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593205#Comment_123593205

Intel have been in trouble for a while, they had a virtual monopoly of the market forever, they have had very strong competition from AMD for the past decade.

Drop in tourism is down to the cost of living.

Things are pretty strong otherwise even on the backdrop of Trump and the Middle east.

yagan

Also I wouldn't be surprised if Stena Line axing of that Ireland-France route may be a result of the relaxation of UK agri import rules that make the British land bridge an option again for Irish hauliers.

SuperBowserWorld

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593364#Comment_123593364

I was joking that unclean/unhealthy/old underwear is not going to help anyone in the partner attracting and follow on baby making department. 😁

ShagNastii

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593499#Comment_123593499

It is an interesting one. I've heard the ship servicing the route is badly in need of repair and is probably being shitscanned. I'm amazing how much development had gone on to Rosslare since Brixit.

Markus Antonius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593373#Comment_123593373

We are in a horrific inflation crisis which could be argued is worse than a recession. What used to be job losses for some is now a steep year-on-year reduction in buying power for everybody. Not only are earnings taking a hit but our savings are too, which is unprecedented. Cash was always king during a recession, now it's a curse.

brickster69

Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices in the US jumped 49 basis points in June, to a record 11.1%.

Landlords just giving up the buildings instead of refinancing new mortgages and no demand.

Thespoofer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123593205#Comment_123593205

Is the mens underwear point actually a thing ?

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123602561#Comment_123602561

Maybe they trying to save the environment

https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/highlights-from-newstalk-breakfast/would-you-wear-second-hand-underwear-for-the-environment

brickster69

Another $410 billion added to the pile in 5 days now they have got a new overdraft approved. But sure they have the reserve currency so no problem. Once these tariffs kick in rates could be going up nevermind down.

engineerws

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123631008#Comment_123631008

Ah, once again you're showing your communist sympathies by discussing facts 😵‍💫

The US has outsourced a large part of its economy and there's a smaller pool of countries to bully. It definitely feels like a shift is happening but US culture is still winning so maybe not in the near future.

Where would an African prefer to move china or USA? I'd guess the USA is much more attractive.

Japan has been called xenophobic https://www.dw.com/en/is-japan-xenophobic-like-us-president-biden-claims/a-69007303

but china also has a democratic deficit. Argentina had its Belle Époque, perhaps USA will eventually decline similarly but to me it's still winning. The USA is still an aspirational country and the USD is still the world reserve currency.

The USA may lose it's lead if it sacrifices it's principles or other countries become more wealthy. Who's to say. I think their support for Israel is a very bad move but still it's an attractive destination.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123631844#Comment_123631844

aspirational! i wouldnt be so sure about that, i suspect most wanna run in the opposite direction, America is in rapid decline, its in trouble!

israel is far from an attractive destination, again, most are running in the opposite direction there to!

thatsdaft

All them migrants crossing deserts, continents and seas in dinghies to reach the BRICS economic powerhouses that are Russia, China, Brazil, India etc

/s

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123632395#Comment_123632395

Yes America is in rapid decline. China are playing the smart long game and have been securing access to raw materials and precious metals for many years so that they eventually dominate economically on all fronts. Trump trying to stop the rot but it's too late.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123632552#Comment_123632552

or more like rapidly accelerating the rot, but shur he ll be grand no matter what, but the average American citizen on the other hand!

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123632556#Comment_123632556

The plan now seems to cut rates ASAP and who cares about inflation, just get that printer turned back on. Quite a few heavily indebted countries coming out with the same things lately.

The good old " inflation has to get to 2% before cuts are made " has gone out the window.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx2pj42395o.amp

All eyes on Japan as they are getting rising inflation with the " tariff king " looming on the horizon. an election this week but it seems no one has a clue what to do.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123633117#Comment_123633117

cause nobody does have a clue, inflation is a far more complex beast than we believe it to be

brickster69

Put Don Jnr in, drop rates to 0% borrow $37 trillion, pay old debt off and save $1 trillion a year in interest.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1945503011758846377

Or probably just a few billionaires making an extra few millions quickly

ELM327

If there is to be another in depth recession (and in finance circles we've been preparing 'recession ready playbooks' since 2020 before covid), I firmly believe that it is not going to be caused by property like last time.

However what is problematic is unsecured and/or undersecured and/or off book lending going off the charts

When people are financing their doordash order with Klarna, or have a 60k carloan balance on a car worth 40k, these are problematic when it reaches critical mass. All we need for a canary event like lehman's was last time, is for the likes of a Klarna or Affirm to go bust, or a large car finance company to go bust and that may be the domino that broke the cart on the straw on the back of the horse or something.

timmyntc

A lot of money shall be lost when the AI bubble pops - right now an eyewatering amount of money going to AI GPU mega datacenters, however so far nobody has figured out how to make AI turn a profit.

There is a massive gold rush going on where AI stocks and lending based on AI GPUs is in overdrive, but who will be holding the bag when the bubble pops?

greenfield21

So following the CPI data yesterday and economic data today the view appears to be now that the US economy is re-accelerating and inflation is contained. Who would have guessed it and rate cuts now looking less likely. When do the wheels really come, who has a clue anymore. I do wonder will we start seeing a separation between the US and the rest of world weakening. Amazing how house prices still high there with rates and changes to immigration also.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123646353#Comment_123646353

ah shur with chronic supply issues set to continue into the 30's, house prices wont be stablising anytime soon, and very unlikely will ever fall either

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123642145#Comment_123642145

Anyone that has worked with big data (which is what AI was before it was called AI) knows the current hype is just that, noise from uneducated fools.

No reason not to make money out of it or whatever when the going's good… butit's literally a big CTRL+F with a big text file.