Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Yeah but Trump has now 3.5 years left in office in that time how much pain will his Maga mates take before turning on him. It is serious as in the knobends in government baked in Corpo taxes into our daily spend and they will have to unwind that scenario having said that they did put 16 billion aside so they have maybe 2 years of a buffer sure then all they have to do is wait another year and a hlaf and Trumpo will be gone. There is not a chance the next president over there will be so wreckless with the US economy. Trumps plan is going to inflict so much pain on his own people that anyone daring to keep his stupidity going will not get voted back in. This really is a game of poker the rest of the world should double down on this with retaliation tariffs and let the US build/buy and sell within their own country and the rest of the world should do likewise. You point out what is happening in Canada, have a look at the markets in the US and no new tariffs have been imposed there watch what happens when the EU respond in kind. Not to mention how much more expensive rolling over the 36.6 trillion of debt that the US has will be come rollover time. America is not the world watching him with his board with figures basically made up like 39% tariffs I dare anyone to show me one product going to the US that has this. The guy is a gobshite and should be treated as such. The EU need to negotiate with the BRICS, Oz, Middle east and the rest of Asia and see if they can do bilaterals where all tariffs are disregarded going between these countries/areas and give the US a real 2 finger salute. All the world has to do is get through the next 3.5 years it will be hard. For Ireland the government needs to now go through Depts and Orgs likes of the OPW, RTE, Dep of Health, Education with a fine tooth comb to see where money is being wasted as if they try to up taxes while the likes of the cost of Children's hospital is still an ongoing joke and the likes of the security huts and bike sheds have had zero repercussions or accountability FF/FG will not be voted in again and that is their main aim. So yeah this is a disaster for the government here hopefully it puts manners on them.

Something that I would like to know is how many politicians and civil servants who make these laws are actively invested in property of companies that benefit from it.

I find people who focus incessantly on Air BnB to not be serious about actually discussing solutions to our rental crisis.

I would agree with this. There is not a housing crisis because Air BnB exists. This is like blaming estate agents for house prices exploding. Neither is a help, but neither is the cause.

Air BnB is just a convenient target to avoid addressing the true and very obvious causes to the problem.

We also don't know whether there will be any cuts at all. These tariff policies could be rolled back in the near future.

Lets hope so!

Govt just announced a substantial increase in social welfare rates for people laid off and are filling the country with people that are not allowed to work. Strange prep work for a potential crisis

Actions/words and all that

It looks that way, 37% tariffs on Bangladesh higher on Myanmar. I'd doubt he is trying to bring back jobs from there

To Leitrim levels? Come off it.


2008 is a depression level era (or that Mod with the graph on sentiment, a “black swan” event) where many sectors saw significant contraction. Indeed construction was virtually was wiped out. Aside from the employment statistics I mentioned, we had wage cuts and suppressed wages for a decade. There were high paid jobs then too.

Nobody said Accessory Dwelling Units would “solve” housing either yet that was the claimed narrative being pushed by people who often seem to overlap with Air BnB obsessives.

The impact can be literally quantified, Ronan Lyons did work on this. 2-3k units was estimated out of a shortage of 130k nationally, that’s more like 2%. I appreciate your point on small solutions (I think that’s fair in the round) but such a solution does need to be considered in the context of what it is providing in terms of utility to the overall economy. If those Air BnBs are facilitating the economic activity and tax that builds social houses and other state services, the equation changes.

My issue with Air BnB goes beyond the myopic debate surrounding it, it is the noise it gets. It’s a glamour topic- why does it get more airtime than say the fact that the Minister for Housing has often sat on their hands for simple things that would give you the small improvement you mention. For example the State didn’t have enough planners which held back both housing and infrastructure. The State could have in a stroke of a pen added Planners to the Critical Skills list. Tech companies can get absolute nonsense jobs added, but we can’t get something like that added.

Similarly, why no focus on how the Minister for Housing could have clarified (and facilitated building straightaway) what they intended when talking about high capacity transport within SDZs? Nah they left that to some Judge to decide after someone living a couple of KMs away took a judicial review. I suppose the people who give out about Air BnBs were in celebration mode then as a developer couldn’t build something.

No there isn’t. This was clear by 2014 really (similarly it was with housing too, but people ignored it). We had 78% occupancy in Dublin which (if you want to Google it), is still higher than the likes of our European peers. It has gotten worse since then at 83%, with the glut of new developments absolutely impacted by IPAS and the homeless. But to be absolutely clear, predating these issues (and the massive capacity increase) there was an issue in the Dublin market with a lack of beds.

I had access to a couple of the big hotels books a decade ago and the STR rates were off the wall. That’s what prompted the development, which people then moaned about.