Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

If the jobs go, the number of people that can afford to pay 700k for a 3 bed semi will go with them. Prices will then come down, even if supply continues to slow.

Asylum seekers aren't coming here buying 700k houses; tech, finance and pharma workers are; if we lose them, we lose the house price ceiling.

You can see the impact even today, even when we have a huge deficit of housing supply.

The january median house price in Dun Laoghaire, where the jobs are, was 620k.

In Leitrim, where the jobs are not, the median house price was 165k.

DLR has over 6 times the population of County Leitrim.

Yes there are disparities between housing types and some other factors, but the fact remains that an exodus of well paid jobs can turn Dun Laoghaire into Leitrim, very quickly.

And they would have been right in 2007. I'd suggest reading this;

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3667309

It is US based but available evidence since suggests it was a dramatic overreaction by markets, with interest rates increasing too quickly.

Yes there needed to be a market correction and pain as dumb loans were issued both in the US and here, but it just didn't warrant what happened. The fundamentals didn't support it. The fact that we had financial products that few understood along with discourse about demand mania spooked the world and tipped us over the edge.

The sharp money flooding came in very quickly once it was clear that it was an overreaction and we have seen dramatic house price inflation in the West since.

After the fact that what we are seeing is an (admittedly highly damaging) repricing of the economy, the best argument against a collapse here is because of that overreaction, imo of course.

Relax the kacks - Pharma not included in the tariffs so thats about 60% of imports from Ireland going into the US not being touched. Also for those saying people cant afford 700k houses you need to look at the alternitive countries that people may move to as the action of property prices going up and up and up is not just an Irish phenomenon its global. I think this will be more a Brexit scenario with regards to jobs but the corpo tax will diminish and I have said on here for years that we will be caught out with this as our gobsh1ts at the wheel have baked this tax into our spending a little like 08 with stamp duty. I can see some tax increases but the shame of it is what our taxes are spent on someone really needs to grab the purse strings and stop throwing money around like confetti. The corpo tax party is coming to an end. There is a fight to come in the next 5 yeasr as the country is now way too expensive with regards to costs of living and any increase in tax will see FF/FG not getting elected next time. The spend side has to be looked at no more 1.2 billion security huts or 300k bike sheds and organizations like RTE need to hit the wall and other organizations like the OPW need to be gutted from the top down and the employees penalised for not spending frugally going forward. The other organizations like ESB need to be told to cut their prices and look after the country and not its record breaking profits. We still have levels to pull and options to see the country grow but it means politicians actually doing the job properly.

Some positive news for a change:

"The Government is preparing to crackdown on Airbnb, effectively banning the long-term tourist rental of homes in large towns and cities.

The proposed rules are much stricter than previously expected, with restrictions set to prevent homeowners from renting out properties for more than 90 days a year if they live in an area with a population greater than 10,000.

Senior Government sources confirmed they intend to bring forward new legislation in the coming weeks introducing stringent regulations on short-term lets."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41605648.html

This should effectively kill off the professional Airbnbs in our cities and return it to the original aim - people renting out their own homes when they're away or similar.

It won't return a huge number of properties to the market, but better some than none.

There is absolutely no incentive for politicians to do anything but talk this up. If it ends up ok they can say they navigated well.

Last thing you want to do is underplay it and end up with egg on your face.

Expect plenty of grandstanding in the weeks ahead.

Well Fáilte Ireland estimates there are approximately 32,000 short-term lets in the country, so theres a decent bit of substance to it. Thats a year's housing output.

Never let a good crisis go to waste!

We literally have a controlled sample of what happens when Air BnB goes away. It works out about 2 months of supply.

I have no issue with targeting it as it has more micro issues (they tend to be in urban locations which is a problem) but it is miles from being a panacea to our problems.

It’s a convenient thing for people to waffle on about capitalism and maybe some climate justice stuff.

I dont foresee anything like 15% unemployment, or net migration at 3%, but Its not the volume of jobs that could be lost, its the quality of the jobs.

Losing high paid jobs in Tech & Pharma will suppress the price ceiling on housing costs, especially in towns that might rely on just one major employer.

We are still very much in unknown territory and hopefully the worse case job losses wont manifest, but at the moment, we simply dont know how deep the cuts will be.

Air BnB is very much needed in locations that have either lost or remain under resourced in terms of hotel capacity for tourism and business.

We can reallocate AirBnB for long term housing, (if the owner decides to rent the property, rather than sit on it), but if we dont replace the original stock with new tourism accommodation, we still inflict damage on the local economy and future growth.

We need both tourism and housing supply, not one or the other.

I work in tech and thinking over the last few years most of my colleagues have been on skilled visas and they’ve all bought places as soon as possible and are applying for citizenship.

Stories like this don’t help the housing demand side at all IMO

Irish passport rated Best in World for travel, safety, freedom and our global reputation

Well I don't know if we can know that for sure, and I also don't think these things happen just because of one man….at least not Trump.

Regardless, I think that this demonstrates once again just how volatile the globo-homo economic model can be.

Nobody is claiming getting rid of AirBNB will solve the housing crisis though.

If there are a number of smaller measures that each have a say 5% impact, by themselves they're not hugely useful no. But implement them all and you start to have a noticeable impact.

A potential of up to 32k units is also far more than 2 months of supply, its more than the entirety of 2024's supply.

But either way for a measure that costs tax payers almost nothing, and won't hurt anyone but a tiny number of professional AirBNB hosts, as long as it has any positive impact at all its a good thing. Its certainly a better policy change than most of those relating to the housing sector that we've seen lately.