Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123295404#Comment_123295404

I think your situation is a good example of what I keep banging about as a bigger problem in the market than the new build numbers.

The market is clogged up because of the huge volume people whose best option is just to stay put.

You want to move but it is easier to stay put because of the state of the market - tiny supply and mad bidding wars.

I've no doubt there are people a step below you and a step above you on the ladder thinking exactly the same.

That's totally rational given the state of market.

But collectively all these people represent tens of thousands of properties that are pent up supply, many multiples of what is on the market currently.

Releasing that pent up supply would go a long to fixing the current problems.

hello2020

anyone predicts house price correction due to new tariffs and recession fears?

in the market to buy but prices for second hand houses in Dublin are going 100k over last year price.. is it best to wait for another 3-4 months or buy now .

PokeHerKing

I can't see anything notable happening to prices inside a year.

Maybe in a few years time we will look back at Q1 2025 being the peak.

I don't think anyone including Trump know how any of his rhetoric/policy will play out.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305533#Comment_123305533

Even if there was a price correction, if you buy now and intend to stay in the property for at least 5 to 10 years, the price will recover in that time period. And that's assuming that there will be a price correction.

God only knows how any of this will play out but I wouldnt be hanging around.

People have been talking about a dip/easing off literally the last 10 years and there's still no sign of it happening.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305834#Comment_123305834

Worst case scenario would obviously be Trumps policy's tank our economy over the lifetime of the administration and beyond.

Meaning no recovery to current prices. Personally I think that's unlikely but can't be rulled out completely.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305533#Comment_123305533

IT is reporting that Jack Chambers is saying government are not expecting to cut existing State spending, their what-if scenarios all effect any increases in future public spending.

I reckon prices are not going to fall meaningfully as long as current level of government spending in the market is maintained.

The Government is trying to “game” the various different scenarios that could play out, and as a result will have to “carefully manage” any increase in public spending, he said. “We’re not in a position of having to make specific cuts to public expenditure,” he said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/03/28/cuts-in-state-spending-not-on-table-in-tariff-war-gaming-chambers-says/

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305533#Comment_123305533

Our population is growing by 100,000 a year, and we're building 30,000 homes a year.

On top of that we already have a deficit of 200k+ homes, and thats growing all the time.

We'd need a 2008 level financial crisis to happen, and even if it did it would take a year or two for the immigration levels to reverse to meaningful amounts of emigration, and for construction to put any sort of dent in the deficit.

And that would presume both you and your partner would keep your jobs and incomes - neither of which is guaranteed in any sector if theres such a deep recession. Even the safest of jobs in the civil service and teachers took big paycuts in the last recession.

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305983#Comment_123305983

The price crash in 2008/9/10 was the worst thing the property market has ever seen in this country, and it recovered within 10 years.

People were worried/excited about what Covid was going to to the property market, and it ended up being a slight dip followed by more rampant increases.

I'm very risk averse as a person in general, and I would have no hesitation in advising a family member to buy now instead of waiting a year or so.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306009#Comment_123306009

On top of that we already have a deficit of 200k+ homes, and thats growing all the time.

Once again, that's not unanimously agreed. Certainly the government don't appear to agree with it.

If we genuinely had 200k+ deficit that means there are over 500k people who are not housed according to their needs. Now matter how hard you squint it's impossible to show who these 500k people are.

Go ahead and try, if you disagree. WHo are these 500k people?

tigger123

Personally, I'd love to see this absolute madness end with regard to property prices, and I'm a home owneer. It's ruining Dublin, stripping it of all its character, artists, musicians and general good stuff. Being replaced with soulless and faceless massive glass hotels.

It's very unfair on the next generation coming up. I have friends making close to 6 figures, and with no help from family, they're struggling to buy on their own.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123305544#Comment_123305544

I don't think anyone including Trump know how any of his rhetoric/policy will play out.

We don't know how it will play out, but what we do know is the tariffs purpose which is to bring Irish based jobs and corporate taxes back to America

If achieved it will be a 1 - 2 potentially fatal punch to the Irish economic model of the past 30 years and possibly worse than the 08 crisis

Dan O Brien on twitter

April 2 is shaping up to be worst day in Irish economic history since September 29 2008 and December 2010 (when bailout happened).

Immediate effects of tariffs will not be dramatic but longer run impact on Ireland’s economic model could well be more profound than 2008/10.

https://x.com/danobrien20/status/1905249572894441512?t=Ry9_HHBxzz6YzwfXaOz4vQ&s=19

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306018#Comment_123306018

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, etc.

But I agree, as previously stated in response to the OP. I was playing devil's advocate.

For arguments sake IF Trumps aadmin policies stripped Ireland of all future investment from Tech and Pharma and led to the eventual withdrawal of these companies from the Irish economy.

Given our current dependency on corporate tax and employment from these companies its not reasonable to claim we'd maintain existing prices or return to them anytime soon.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306045#Comment_123306045

Well It's certainly not a positive but what the reality of it will be I think is very unclear.

Trump himself is erratic. How anything he actually goes through with will affect the global or Irish economy is an unknown.

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306036#Comment_123306036

Same here. I would happily face negative equity if it meant that younger Irish men and women have a chance of owning property on an average income.

The problem is, the situation is so advanced now that there is simply no easy fix. "Build more houses" is clearly not going to work, so the only thing that would "fix" the market would be a crash. That isn't going to happen in isolation, and it would likely see high unemployment akin to 2008. Frying pans and fires come to mind :/

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306045#Comment_123306045

I agree. Its a good point and people are ignoring the elephant in the room.

The main reason house prices are so high, along with a lack of supply, is because people can afford to pay high prices.

If the Tarrifs take 80k jobs out of the economy, both current and projected job roles, there will be a flight of labour from the country and house prices will of course be affected.

Even when we had the recession of 2008, we didnt have the fundamental threat to our corporate tax/MNC employment model in any way compromised.

The potential for a Tarrif war is the largest threat the economy has faced this century.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306031#Comment_123306031

You have to look at how people are housed there are people renting beds in a room in some cases 30 beds in 1 room could you say they are adequately housed also the vast majority of people under the age of 25/26 who would of normally left the nest cant are they being housed correctly. What about all the refugees and other over seas visitors looking to get housed and are in hotels are they being housed correctly add these to the homeless figures and you wont be too far off

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307149#Comment_123307149

Thta's the thing, all the discussion on this is throwing a few demographics out, kids in the box room, think of the refugees etc, it's probably not too far off.

But if you try and actually make an estimate of the actual numbers in those demographics, it's very difficult to get up to 5-600k people. That's 10% of the population.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307156#Comment_123307156

Yeah it is difficult to count and I have no idea how people come up with the figures that are being bandied about. We can count the homeless that's about it, having said that the fact that we have such high prices with regards to both renting and buying and the increases seem to be getting higher and higher this would suggest to me that there is ravenous demand out there for both otherwise these prices would not be continuously rising ergo we can infer that we do need a rather large amount of new housing or stock not adequate for habitation being knocked into shape so it can be used and we can then count things like deaths vs birth and net migration to see what changes there are in our population.

Ireland is unique in that we are one of the least densely populated countries in Europe but seem to be on the higher end for both rental and buying. We had a higher population back about 200 Years ago when there was over 8 million people living in Ireland and now we are at about 5.3million but we also have to look at the fact this figure has nearly doubled from our low point in the 1960s when we are at about 2.8 million. It begs the question to be answered where did we house the 8 million 200 years ago?

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307183#Comment_123307183

It begs the question to be answered where did we house the 8 million 200 years ago?

That's not really relevant to modern times though. Back when the population was 8 million, you had 3 or 4 families living per cottage, each family having a room. We had tenements with shared toilets (no longer legal). It was a different time that cannot be compared to modern day living.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307197#Comment_123307197

Yeah well if you think there are not people and more than 1 family out there living and sharing a toilet you would be shocked. Plenty of people abusing the system, but yeah it is a different time having said that we are still way over 2million short of that era which is staggering when you think about it

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307183#Comment_123307183

It is not that difficult to count to see whether or not it is even realistic ballpark figure of 500-600k people.

The deficit referenced was calculated at a precise point in time - census night 2022. We have as accurate a count as you can reasonably expect of all the demographics at that point in time - the numbers of homeless, living in temporary accommodation, young adults living with parents, their ages and how many of them are carers, and how many of them are employed/unemployed/full time education.

But nobody who trots out the approx 230-250k housing deficit figure makes even a back of the envelope attempt to demonstrate who would have been living in these houses if we actually had them in April 2022.

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307201#Comment_123307201

Of course there are outliers and people abusing the system these days, but 3 families per cottage was the standard system back then so not hard to see how we had 2 million more people mainly living in squalor.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123306031#Comment_123306031

2013-2022: The percentage of people aged 25-29 living at home with their parents jumped from 36.5% in 2013 to 68% in 2022 [1]

There were 320,000 people in Ireland aged 25-29 in 2024. 31.5% of that number is 99,200 people. And thats from one, small, age band. Make it 18-40 and thats a very large amount of your 500k people accounted for straight away.

That also not including the large numbers of adults living in shared rooms in non-family accomodation we have now - immigrants especially - who should be in their own bedrooms. Thats tens of thousands more.

Of course the government isn't going to acknowledge that figure, because it acknowledges their failures. But there have been huge numbers of reports by housing analysts or bodies who all say the same thing - you've been linked to their reports multiple times in this thread.

ie, most promently, “The Housing Commission's estimate of a housing deficit ranging from 212,500 to 256,000 homes, based on 2022 Census figures" [2]

I would presume the Housing Commission knows somewhat more than you.

[1]https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/number-of-young-irish-adults-still-living-with-parents-almost-doubles-in-a-decade-but-women-are-quicker-to-leave-home-than-men/a476034740.html

[2]https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2024/05/21/housing-commission-report-leaked-findings-are-damning-indictment-of-government-eoin-o-broin/

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307429#Comment_123307429

It's odd that you'd cite the fact “The Housing Commission's estimate of a housing deficit ranging from 212,500 to 256,000 homes is based on 2022 Census figures" and then entirely ignore the census 2022 figures, instead preferring to cite the Indo article and use a 2024 figure for 25-29 population figure.

Perhaps you couldn't find the census figures? The Indo article cites the Eurostat-SILC data, which is not ideal to compare between 2013 and 2022, because the methodology in changed Ireland in 2020, "moving from an address based concept to one based on shared income and expenditure".[1]

Basically that means if parents were contributing financially to their adult children living elsewhere, eg students, or helping with rents or mortgages, they were counted as living with parents. Unfortunately this is never acknowledged in the media articles which cite this data. I presume you can see how that might contribute to the massive jump in the figures?

Happily the census 2022 figures [2] on which the deficit you cite is based are much more comparable and very easily accessible. It's a shame you could not cite them but here are the key findings:

• In 2022, there were 522,486 adults aged 18 years and over who were living with their parents.
• This was a 14% increase (+63,612) compared with 2016 and a 19% increase since 2011 (+83,008).
• This accounted for 13% of the adult population (aged 18 years and over), the same proportion as in 2011 and 2016.
• Over 61% of 20 to 24 year olds lived with their parents in 2022, an increase from 54% in 2011 and 59% in 2016.
• Broadening the age group, 22% of 18 to 50 year olds lived with their parents in 2022 whereas only 19% in this age group lived with their parents in 2011 and 20% in 2016.

Two things jump out straight away, proportion of the entire adult population living with parents is the same at 13%, and in total. There were 522k adults over 18 living the parents, that's any adult not just 18-40. Presumably you'd agree that wholly contradicts your assumption: Make it 18-40 and thats a very large amount of your 500k people accounted for straight away

In short, using the same data the deficit calculation is based on there is no way to get to c. 500k plus people who would have lived in these c.250k houses if we'd had them in April 2022.

No matter how hard you try.

[1] ESRI - Some caution is however warranted with these Irish figures for the last few years in this sample. Discrepancies have been noted between the 2022 Census figures on young adults remaining in the family home and the corresponding Eurostat figures which come from the EU-SILC datasets, with the Census figures notably lower. It is important here to reiterate the break in the Irish SILC data series from 2020 onwards and the change in how a household is defined, moving from an address based concept to one based on shared income and expenditure. Of particular relevance for Figure 5 is that students living away from the family home but who are substantially supported by their families are now counted as a member of the family household. https://www.esri.ie/publications/household-size-in-ireland-stylised-facts-and-cross-country-trends

[2] CSO - https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpp3/censusofpopulation2022profile3-householdsfamiliesandchildcare/adultslivingwiththeirparents/

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307197#Comment_123307197

It's really quite simple, average life span change. You had large families and a rise in life expectancy from 1800-1840. It rise for about 28 to mid 30's.

Land was subdivided and it was virtual subsistence farming based on the potato crop. One room cottages many literally build of earth and stone. It's was not an large urban expansion like the industrial revolution in England caused. A significant amount of depopulation that happened was along the western seaboard counties. There is still traces of micro agriculture settlements on mountains in Kerry, Galway, Mayo and Donegal especially as there was more stone in these areas to build.

Because of the burning of the Four Courts in 1922 we lost nearly all the early 1800 census records which would give us a better history of the location of these micro urban rural communities.

I saw one of these type of locations on a neighbouring hill farm from where I came from in Kerry. It's is significantly higher than present houses in the area. If you like you can look for planning and move there.

Family size rose from the late 1700 to the famine and decreased after that, not because couples had less children, but because we had more younger people emigrating and more people staying single permanently

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123307183#Comment_123307183

8 million was the population of Ireland. Not the population of the Republic of Ireland.

The population of Ireland today is about 7.3 million and will reach 8 million in less than 10 years, if current population growth is maintained.

combat14

the country is at severe risk from trump tarrifs apple alone paid 25 billions in corporation taxes here last year

US pharmaceutical exports worth about 58 billion a year there is a huge amount at stake

the states and individual finances are at severe risk of substantial cuts

house prices will probably keep rising for now but in 2 years we could see a whole different story

Zenify

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123308584#Comment_123308584

I was chatting to some people who are high up in pharmaceuticals here. It would take a year to plan a new pharmaceutical facility in the states, 2 years to build, and 2 or 3 years to get trained up and certified. That's 5/6 years before it's gone from here. There's probably other risks to our economy before then.

greenfield21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123308635#Comment_123308635

It's about the impact on the tax collection. That will be far greater than on jobs/factories. These companies can change their tax arrangements overnight. If they are better of they will just shift all profits back to the US. But Trump has huge fight here with all the lobbyists/interests so probably nothing happens but risks are huge as so much uncertainty.

tigger123

Is there not also a scenario where all parties just wait this out? Trump wont be around forever, and could conceivably be a dead duck in 2 years.

I know Biden was making similar noises about bringing profits home, but wasn't nearly as aggressive about it. The Democrats would be kinder to us.