World Politics Digest thread

breezy1985 · 03-12-2024 07:49PM

Seems like the President has backed down and the army have retreated.

Surely the next question is his resignation.

Podge_irl · 03-12-2024 07:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122918603#Comment_122918603

One assumes he will be impeached.

Hilariously/Bizarrely/Worryingly about half of SK presidents have ended up in jail.

https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/asia/south-koreas-troubling-history-of-jailing-ex-presidents/

breezy1985 · 03-12-2024 08:26PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122918631#Comment_122918631

The stories of the early years of the various anti communist parts of Asia like Taiwan, Cambodia and South Korea and South Vietnam are very interesting reads. The Americans put up with and funded a fair amount of nut bags in exchange for allegiance.

Didn't realise South Korea was still that bad though.

Brussels Sprout · 05-12-2024 11:53AM

Things are getting really bad in Georgia. Now with the pesky matter of the election out of the way the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party are getting down to the dirty business of turning the country into another Kremlin puppet state, akin to Belarus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyj2e57r70o

Sam Russell · 05-12-2024 11:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122924774#Comment_122924774

More than akin to Belarus. An identical playbook.

Brussels Sprout · 07-12-2024 05:09PM

Looks like the tyrant Bashar al-Assad is finally losing his grip on power. That would be momentos. His father seized power in a coup over 50 years ago and both father and son have been only too willing to murder their own people in order to maintain control.

It seems like rebels took this opportunity while previous defenders of his regime, Russia and Hezbollah, were weakened with their own wars elsewhere. Turkey seems to have played a large roll here too.

Tell me how · 07-12-2024 05:24PM

Does anyone else feel that we're in the early days of what history could see as a particularly fraught period?

The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza which no matter the short term outcome are going to leave very tense realities with lots of ruptures in the years to follow.

Trump returning to power in the US on a wave of even strong populism than the last time and this time with Elon Musk and other billionaires very much in the office and at the table.

The UK poised for a similar floor of populism to impact the next election (which thankfully should be a few years away still) and with the potential for Musk to become involved there also.

Elections next year in Germany and France likely to result in the biggest threat to the EU project in 50 years, coming as it is on the back of Brexit and similar right wing growth in Italy and the Netherlands.

Some days I feel particularly negative about the whole thing and feel that the die has already been cast and that this period of a move towards isolationism and the aggression and conflict that could come out of that simply just has to be let happen before we pivot back to trying to think collaboratively again.

The push back against science/education the emergence of religious driven ideals in parts of the west is very much the opposite direction I feel society should be moving in but here we are. The people continue to trend towards those who claim there are easy answers.

Nody · 07-12-2024 07:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122934050#Comment_122934050

In some ways yes; in others no. Ukraine vs. Russia will not expand in scope; sorry for all the Putin apologists who wants to wave the nuclear WW3 flag but it's not. Russia's economy is falling apart, their recruitment numbers have dropped below their estimated losses at the battle front by a significant margin and even external recruitment is the last desperate attempts to keep numbers up is not working (sorry but Huthi rebels or NK soldiers will not make suitable soldiers in Ukraine). In short the conflict will not expand (not enough manpower in Russia).

For Gaza I'm sorry to say this but no one gives a damn. Yes; students will protest at universities etc. but in reality no one gives a damn enough to actually get involved. Yes, it's a genocide and no, no other nation will lift a finger to stop it beyond harsh words basically. Once again more people displaced etc. but that's going to be the extent of it. Israel will remain unstable and suicide bombers will continue but no regional conflict will come out of it all. Iran are already licking their wounds and can't retaliate and they were just about the only one to consider previously.

Syria will become another failed state in Africa; I don't think it will remain stable and yes that's going to cause hundred of thousands to flee etc. but like with the Arabic spring hopes it will burn down and die and a new dictator in some form will come to power again. Not in the next year but on a decade or so timeline and could very well be by a then partially rebuilt Russia trying to re-secure it's power basis in the region. Do expect to see some American bombings in there because they make great headlines but that's about it.

Trump is going to f-up America further and expand the debt mountain and inspire further Trump wannabies in Europe but as much as I despise him and what he stands for he's not going to be able to implement even 10% of what Musk will propose. Basically he's repeating what Bush senior did with 150 company CEOs who created a long list of improvements to be implemented and in the end zero did. Same will happen here; a long list of improvements stopped in the house/senate because that Republican did not want his state to suffer from it. His biggest impact would be on the justice side (hence Bidens push to get as many as possible in now) esp. if another Supreme justice has to leave for any reason but he'll be much more hot air than actual change and drive further wedges into radicalization of politics and most likely lame duck from 2026 (esp. if he implements the tariffs as most Republicans are to stupid to understand what it actually means or removes ACA = Obama care).

That's the others no part to your question.

Now the some ways yes I agree that there's a definite drive to unpick EU in various ways; having people think their feelings are the same as facts or simply not bother to learn basic information is quite honestly scary. That people don't understand that Affordable Care Act is Obama care in USA is a classic example; Republicans will say they support ACA but want Obama care revoked yet it's the same thing. Basics such as how EU operates and it's actual cost vs. states etc. or "it should go back to being a trade union" is so fundamentally flawed thinking it's hard to think people have even the most rudimentary understanding. You'd think after Brexit and what's happened to the UK economy people would put two and two together but somehow they end up with minus 2 as the answer instead because that's what their feelings tell them and the echo chamber they have on FB/Twitter/"Insert social media" reinforces that their feelings are right when it's not. Classic example of people in the USA feeling more afraid yet the murder rate has dropped simply because of reinforcement that they should be afraid as it benefits certain politicians. There is a great clip out there from a TV show (The Newsroom, S2, E01) back before Trump that's even more relevant today but I don't think there's a one size fits all solution to it if there is even a solution to it because we (as humanity) have become tiktoked into having to take in information in 10s slogans and headlines. When I grew up news reports lasted 5+ min; today you'd be surprised to see more than 1 min on the biggest news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMqcLUqYqrs&t=2s

Hotblack Desiato · 12-12-2024 12:37PM

The people continue to trend towards those who claim there are easy answers.

Thinking is hard; feeling is easy. The enshittification of the internet is only making this exponentially worse

VinLieger · 31-03-2025 01:35PM

Le Pen found guilty and banned from running for public office for 5 years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/31/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-verdict-europe-news-live

This is a double edged sword really, it hopefully will stop her from running in 2027 unless she wins an appeal however it may well embolden and increase her support or her partys support.

Podge_irl · 31-03-2025 02:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123314013#Comment_123314013

however it may well embolden and increase her support or her partys support.

Like, **** it. Political considerations should never be considered in matters of criminal justice. I also just don't really agree, allowing criminal malfeasance because of political concerns has an appalling track record of "success".

breezy1985 · 31-03-2025 02:40PM

As usual all the "tough on crime" parties around Europe are now trying to discredit the court and let convicted criminals get away with their crimes.

VinLieger · 31-03-2025 02:46PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123314226#Comment_123314226

Ohh I agree, it shouldn't be a consideration ever, I was just making the observation of one of the many many ripples effects this might have.

Podge_irl · 31-03-2025 02:55PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123314263#Comment_123314263

I think ignoring it and allowing far-right (or any) politicians to act criminally in a brazen manner has been shown to be far worse…

Slideways · 03-05-2025 12:23PM

Great news here as the populist leaning Dutton has both failed in’s bid to get the liberals back in and has also lost his seat.

While I am no big fan of the Labour leader Albanese, the adage of pick the politician you dislike the least rings strong in this one

sligeach · 04-05-2025 07:02PM

Screenshot_2025-05-04-19-59-09-776-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

For a split second I thought Mr Bean was running in the Romanian election.

zell12 · 11-05-2025 12:30PM

The importance of voting.. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/terrebone-recount-liberal-1.7532136

breezy1985 · 03-06-2025 08:29PM

Dutch government hasn't even lasted a year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/netherlands-government-collapse-geert-wilders

Headshot · 08-09-2025 08:05PM

Very troubling times in France and the EU

I could see this economic crisis causing a recession across Europe

Tell me how · 01-01-2026 01:53PM

Anyone care to hazard a guess for some political predictions for 2026?

In Ireland, hopefully things will remain relatively calm although there is the potential for some fireworks. Micheal Martin has been weakened somewhat by the Jim Gavin fiasco although the report being completed and released before Christmas may have saved him. Harris is due to become Taoiseach in 2027 although he may find himself undermined before that happens. The childrens hospital is due to open in 2027 but I expect there will be conversation again this year about either delays or the monumental cost and that will shine a negative light on Harris himself. That aside, with the government being propped up by a group of independent TD's there's always the potential for some fireworks there coming out of nowhere.

I expect Keir Starmer to not see out the year as PM/Labour leader. Question is will he go before May locals or afterwards. I suspect afterwards because they are likely to take a beating and why would any wannabe leader rush to take that on. Farage will probably try to stay mostly quiet for at least the first half of the year, Reform are already showing themselves to have a hit a ceiling and playing the same tune this far out from a GE won't change that I suspect. He'll pipe up again if the Tories start gaining ground but for now it suits him to distance himself from the conversation about his school time exploits. I'd say Richard Tice and Zia Yusuf may take the lead in public campaigning for the local elections. Farage will be there, but not front and centre all the time I suspect.

I think there will be some form of a ceasefire in Ukraine but that the real winner will be Russia who will have gained land in Crimea Eastern Ukraine regions and who will be able to continue to be the aggressor in the region. If there is such a deal and Zelensky does look to hold elections in Ukraine relatively quickly, I don't expect he will be President once the election is complete but that it may be that he steps down before the election is held (or announces he is going to step down) irrespective of the result.

I think Israel will continue its attempts to eradicate Palestine as we know it from the Middle East with the active encouragement and arm twisting assistance of the US which is actually having it's arm twisted by Israel as has been the case for a long time now. Unfortunately, I don't expect the Western countries who have facilitated and aided Israel in recent years to grow the moral strength they lack to stand up to them appropriately.

And as for the most unpredictable and yet at the same time predictable political topic of the current day. That orange behemoth in the White House. The only thing we can be sure of is chaos. That could be anything from a sudden health issue leading to his replacement as President to him facing impeachment calls in 2027 if the Democrats win the house. I don't expect his successful impeachment whether they win it or not. I do expect constant dropping of America from it's self appointed position of moral authority on the planet.

Nody · 01-01-2026 04:49PM

Well why not and going for guesses not mentioned:

The protests in Iran will go nowhere; at best there will at best be some token changes but in practice it will continue as now. Iran's nuclear enrichment program will be started up again and Israel will bomb Iran over it again in some form though I think Trump can't allow American bombers this time since that would go against his narrative over how effective the last bombing was. Hence I expect the usual attack by proxy of Israel with Israel bombing individuals and launch sites more so than the enrichment sites themselves (barring possibly tunneling in to them). Talking about Israel there will be further bombings into Libanon etc. as today but there will not be any major escalations (or deescalation) going on. A new election will be called towards the middle of the year with about same split as today in the blocks (some shifts between the parties) leading to another Netanyahu government in some form and Netanyahu does not get the pardon he's asked for.

The Trump administration will lose the tariff ruling in the Supreme court which will lead to the usual headless chicken performance and attempts to get around it with reclassifying the tariff reasons/laws used (of which most if not all will fail). It will be exactly as badly handled as you expect it to be because no one dares to prepare or hint that ruling by proclamation (which is what Trump has been doing) is not how you get **** done when it comes to laws.

Something in Asia will kick off but not turn into a full blown war; this could be the India vs. China in Tibet area; it could be China vs. Philippines navy again or simply North Korea vs. South Korea with the subs etc. Outlier here would be China going into Siberia and annex ground on another front on Putin because he don't have the forces to stop them and he's dependent on Chinese manufacturing and oil sells as it is to ignore it (as already done with the island etc.).

South America will have at least one military coup but I'd hesitate to state in which country except it's not going to be Venezuela. It will be done in the name of democracy and claims of voter fraud from an election and that the military coup is only going to be "temporary" but will be anything but temporary and trigger another big wave of immigrants going north towards USA.

Turning to Europe I expect France to get at least two new governments in 2026 and the German government will start the groundwork of restarting nuclear power again in some form (though it will be years away for implementation).

JohnDoe2025 · 21-01-2026 03:13PM

This year is impossible to predict. Already three weeks in and Greenland is the current biggest issue but not mentioned by either poster above! Will have a go at some predictions nonetheless.

The key to 2026 is Trump. What happens to him and his ideas will change the whole outlook. Domestic opposition will grow but I don't think that even the mid-terms will be enough to stop him. Even if he gets worse, the likes of Vance in the background and others will take over and push the MAGA agenda forward. Two sides to MAGA, the domestic side of bringing manufacturing home, but the external one of being seen to be the big boy on the world stage. Greenland can go any way.

Russia/Ukraine, I don't think we will see peace, both sides are exhausted and cannot win, but they don't have enough save face to find an agreement. A front line moving back and forwards a few miles at a time is the most likely outcome increasing and decreasing the pressure on one side or the other to seek peace.

Iran will be increasingly isolated. The defeats inflicted on their foreign terrorist organisations - Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis - has actually and will continue to strengthen their internal repressive control as members of these organisation flee to Iran and become part of the security forces. Totalitarianism is on the rise and there are a number of countries - Iran, Russia, Venezuela, North Korea, Afghanistan - where the people are impoverished and oppressed, but are held in a tight vice-like grip by the authorities that they don't seem able to escape. The pessimist in me sees no change in that, and worryingly, those countries and similar regimes can look to China to see how to successfully control a large population. You increase the quality of ordinary people's lives a little every year, while maintaining surveillance and internet control on the population.

Speaking of China, notwithstanding some internal economic tensions, they are the big winners from the current world state. Expect to see their influence grow with designs on resources in Siberia, more threatening moves on Taiwan - they have been building warships designed to land on Taiwan, and elsewhere in south-east Asia. Islands will play a particular role in controlling trade routes and some friction with Japan, South Korea, Australia and Malaysis is inevitable.

Huge challenges for the EU. Decision-making structures are too cumbersome, just look how the EU Parliament has sent a Mercosur deal off for a two-year trip around the courts. Whether you agree with the deal or not, proper decision-making would see that voted down or passed. This may be the year that sees a two-tier EU emerge. Concepts like the Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine may become more formalised. Ireland needs to get on board with the trends, we need the EU more than we need our feeble neutrality.

In general, this could be the year of the regional power. Turkey making designs on Syria and eliminating the Kurds once and for all. India picking fights with its Muslim and Tamil neighbours in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Saudis and the UAE both trying to extend their remits in the Middle East. Will a counterpoint to the US emerge in South America, it won't be one of the socialist states like Cuba or Venezuela, they are too badly run?

Israel has accomplished most of what it wanted in Gaza, the question will be how quickly will the peace deal bring stability and prosperity and will Hamas stick to the agreement and be disarmed. Internally, the election will be interesting, can Netanyahu get back and who will he be dependent upon? The hard-liners hold the balance of power unless someone from the left supports Netanyahu instead.

A worrying year ahead.

Oh, and Ireland. Stability will be the name of the game in the face of uncertainty worldwide. The electorate will note the dalliance of the opposition with unsavoury regimes like Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Too many people depend on American MNCs for jobs and will want a government that is careful and cautious to manage that. Connolly's loud mouth will show the folly of having lefties in government, so the current government parties will see small rises in support this year, not a huge amount, but enough to take them back to general election levels or slightly above.

volchitsa · 01-03-2026 05:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124167847#Comment_124167847

Not a crtiticism of this post, which was excellent, but with current events it's interesting to compare. Definitely as unpredictable as predicted!

Or this also:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124108800#Comment_124108800

Apart from Iran and "famous last words", one conflict that wasn't predicted here, and indeed that is getting very little attention generally even as it's ongoing, is the one between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

There's an interesting article about it in the NYT

No Clear Endgame in the Conflict Between Afghanistan and Pakistan

Pakistan’s military and security apparatus supported the Taliban for decades, including by providing a refuge for the group’s leadership during the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan and supplying the insurgency with weapons.
Its government initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, but the relationship soured shortly after Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, an Islamist militant group that opposes the Pakistani state, intensified its attacks across the border. Pakistan accuses the Taliban government of harboring the group, which is also known as the Pakistani Taliban.
(…)
The Pakistani Taliban have killed more than 1,300 people in over 800 attacks since 2021, according to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, a research center based in Islamabad. (…)
Pakistan also struck areas that were full of civilians, according to humanitarian organizations and Afghan officials. They added that it targeted at least two camps hosting Afghans who were recently expelled from Pakistan.

JohnDoe2025 · 02-03-2026 09:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124275936#Comment_124275936

The Pakistan/Afghanistain conflict does coincide with the theme of my post from the start of the year - this could be the year of the regional power.

That one is surprising, but it seems Pakistan has lost patience with the trouble on its doorstep.

volchitsa · 02-03-2026 01:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124277595#Comment_124277595

I'm puzzled by your (brief) description of the cause of the war between the two. I mean, I know there have been suicide bombs, but fundamentally, Pakistan has been a massive supporter of the Taliban.

Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI, maintained ties with the group throughout the US occupation. They trained, funded, and provided sanctuary to the Taliban before and after the US occupation of Afghanistan. The Taliban’s safe houses were in Quetta and everyone knew it.

Now Pakistan is striking the country whose attempt at democracy it helped destabilise and is calling it self-defence.

I'm not defending the Taliban in any way - but I think Pakistan's issue with them is more that they are unhappy that they no longer control them, not because they have any real ideological differences with them.

I suppose what it shows is that there is no finding a compromise with religious extremists - because there will always be a more radical group that will reject any compromise with the "impure" anyway. And given Islam's historic tendency to progress at sword (or gun) point - or knife/bomb if needed - this was always inevitable.

Seth Brundle · 06-03-2026 05:43PM

I note that Iceland has announced its a referendum on re-establishing dialogue with the EU about membership will take place this August - this will enable continuation of initial accession discussions which were called to a halt 12 years ago. Once these talks conclude, an actual accession referendum will take place.

“This is a referendum on whether we can finish the dialogue – not whether we are joining,” Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir said at a press conference in Reykjavik on Friday.

Iceland locks in on date for EU referendum | Euractiv

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