World Politics Digest thread

In some ways yes; in others no. Ukraine vs. Russia will not expand in scope; sorry for all the Putin apologists who wants to wave the nuclear WW3 flag but it's not. Russia's economy is falling apart, their recruitment numbers have dropped below their estimated losses at the battle front by a significant margin and even external recruitment is the last desperate attempts to keep numbers up is not working (sorry but Huthi rebels or NK soldiers will not make suitable soldiers in Ukraine). In short the conflict will not expand (not enough manpower in Russia).

For Gaza I'm sorry to say this but no one gives a damn. Yes; students will protest at universities etc. but in reality no one gives a damn enough to actually get involved. Yes, it's a genocide and no, no other nation will lift a finger to stop it beyond harsh words basically. Once again more people displaced etc. but that's going to be the extent of it. Israel will remain unstable and suicide bombers will continue but no regional conflict will come out of it all. Iran are already licking their wounds and can't retaliate and they were just about the only one to consider previously.

Syria will become another failed state in Africa; I don't think it will remain stable and yes that's going to cause hundred of thousands to flee etc. but like with the Arabic spring hopes it will burn down and die and a new dictator in some form will come to power again. Not in the next year but on a decade or so timeline and could very well be by a then partially rebuilt Russia trying to re-secure it's power basis in the region. Do expect to see some American bombings in there because they make great headlines but that's about it.

Trump is going to f-up America further and expand the debt mountain and inspire further Trump wannabies in Europe but as much as I despise him and what he stands for he's not going to be able to implement even 10% of what Musk will propose. Basically he's repeating what Bush senior did with 150 company CEOs who created a long list of improvements to be implemented and in the end zero did. Same will happen here; a long list of improvements stopped in the house/senate because that Republican did not want his state to suffer from it. His biggest impact would be on the justice side (hence Bidens push to get as many as possible in now) esp. if another Supreme justice has to leave for any reason but he'll be much more hot air than actual change and drive further wedges into radicalization of politics and most likely lame duck from 2026 (esp. if he implements the tariffs as most Republicans are to stupid to understand what it actually means or removes ACA = Obama care).

That's the others no part to your question.

Now the some ways yes I agree that there's a definite drive to unpick EU in various ways; having people think their feelings are the same as facts or simply not bother to learn basic information is quite honestly scary. That people don't understand that Affordable Care Act is Obama care in USA is a classic example; Republicans will say they support ACA but want Obama care revoked yet it's the same thing. Basics such as how EU operates and it's actual cost vs. states etc. or "it should go back to being a trade union" is so fundamentally flawed thinking it's hard to think people have even the most rudimentary understanding. You'd think after Brexit and what's happened to the UK economy people would put two and two together but somehow they end up with minus 2 as the answer instead because that's what their feelings tell them and the echo chamber they have on FB/Twitter/"Insert social media" reinforces that their feelings are right when it's not. Classic example of people in the USA feeling more afraid yet the murder rate has dropped simply because of reinforcement that they should be afraid as it benefits certain politicians. There is a great clip out there from a TV show (The Newsroom, S2, E01) back before Trump that's even more relevant today but I don't think there's a one size fits all solution to it if there is even a solution to it because we (as humanity) have become tiktoked into having to take in information in 10s slogans and headlines. When I grew up news reports lasted 5+ min; today you'd be surprised to see more than 1 min on the biggest news.