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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I don't disagree with the sentence regarding Trump, everyone has to be smart, but that doesn't mean abandoning all and every principle to "kiss the ring"

    As for the rest of this. Interesting phrases in here "both sides", "US political figures", "brewing conflict"

    Not saying this is Putin apologism but for whatever reason there watered down versions of their talking points in there.

    Putin has long heavily meddled in Ukraine, culminating in flipping Yanukovych from pro-EU to pro-Kremlin, which was the chief trigger for mass protests. Putin then annexed Crimea, then proxy invaded Eastern Ukraine. Culminating in the full scale invasion.

    Ukraine overwhelmingly wanted and wants to join the EU. Even in Donbas a majority didn't want Kremlin control.

    It's not a "conflict". It's not some territorial spat. That is Hitler and Poland - call a spade a spade.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    On the surface it was to protect Ukraine from Putin's wrath, as soon as he signed the EU deal Yanukovych got a big bailout from Moscow and a third off gas prices - but he lost the nation. He seemed to think he could control it, or just keep shooting Ukrainians but I don't think he grasped how pissed the nation was.

    Keep in mind Yanukovych was highly corrupt, so that was probably an aspect, he was caught red-handed in the end and when he was ousted (and wanted by at least two countries) he was taken to, you guessed it, Russia.

    Reports were he was carted out during the Feb invasion to "lead" the newly invaded country as a puppet leader only to have been put back on ice when the 3 day invasion turned to 3 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    We are both in agreement so I won't get into semantics with you. What's happening in Ukraine to the ordinary people there is barbaric, you won't find me trying to make a case for Russia.

    Politically, the Ukraine are a long way from joining the EU. That was well documented before the invasion and nothing has really changed since.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    And not because the EU stipulated that unless Yanukovych cut off every trade agreement with Russia, even pre-agreed contracts, they wouldn't provide any financial contributions?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    What's the right thing to do for Ireland then? Because sending money or troops to Ukraine ain't it.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,053 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    We've already sent lots of money to Ukraine, 36 million. I don't believe we'll be sending soldiers but you never know. Maybe as peacekeepers in time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    And we shouldn't be sending good money after bad. We've enough problems that need dealing with here.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Extraordinarily short sighted attitude. If you think Ireland will be able to somehow avoid the collosal economic damage that would be done to Europe through a war with Russia you are sorely mistaken. There will be no money for a lot of what Ireland sells to Europe. All the money in the EU's largest economies will be going to defence firms. Ireland doesn't do a lot of that stuff. We need to make sure Ukraine wins. If Ukraine loses a war with an EU member state is all but inevitable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    That's your opinion on whatay happen, I disagree. What's more shortsighted is starting a row with the US over something we have no input on. There are diplomatic channels that should be used rather than this brazen attitude we seem to have taken lately that we can do without the US, we can't.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    We don't have to start a row with the US. We just have to up our defence spending and contribute to European defence, including to Ukraine. The US is out. Gone. We can't rely on them for any sort of defence against Russian aggression.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    That's just not true though. The US is not gone or going to turn it's back on NATO.

    I'll be perfectly honest, I hope there's a peace deal soon as I think we were getting way to close to nuclear escalation over the past 2 years. That's one thing all sides should be trying to avoid at all costs.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The US is gone. If you think Donald Trump would launch a nuclear strike against Vladimir Putin you are not watching the same TV I am. He can't even bring himself to criticise Putin. Something is completely off here. We are on our own in Europe now. We are closer to nuclear war, but it's because Trump can not be relied upon to launch a strike against Moscow. Once Moscow stops believing that, then the doctrine of mutually assured destruction breaks down and Russia is emboldened to strike at Europe. Not today or tomorrow because the Ukrainians have done us a huge favour and hollowed out the Russian land and Black Sea forces, but they will re-arm. We need to re-arm faster.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,970 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Everyone hopes there will be a peace deal soon, but conversely we can't all be held hostage eternally to Putin's nuclear threats. He's counting on us wanting to avoid them at all costs while he actively works day and night to split and divide Europe, engaging in constant hybrid warfare.

    Keep in mind most of the Kremlin's "red lines" were crossed in the past 3 years.

    It's easy to slip into a fantasy loop where we somehow think "peace in Ukraine" or appeasement will somehow get us out of this. It's unlikely to ever stop. In fact, on the contrary, it's probably going to get worse. Regardless of what happens with Trump it's why we (Europe) are going to have to spend 10's, 100's of billions on defence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    How do you think Ukraine could ever win a war against Russia?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    The threat of nuclear war is not going away anytime soon. The best we can hope for is de-escalation where possible and some sabre rattling to make everyone feel like they are winning every now and again.

    In my opinion any deal needs to include economic ties between Russia, US and EU. It's probably an unpopular opinion but until Europe had strong economic ties it was a mess. That being said, any deal has to work for Ukraine first and foremost, within the realms of reality though.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,407 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They don't need to win, just outlast a country that is already circling the drain. putin can't do mass conscription without losing support from those keeping him in power. trump is his last chance, if Harris had won, putin would have given up by now with some victory speech about nazis being gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,407 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It will be a very long time before Europe depends on any economic ties with russia again. When Nordstream blew, Germany didn't really care much, they knew russia was too unreliable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,098 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Germany definitely cared and is paying a huge price for the pipeline being blown up.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    Very poor understanding of the situation-Russia can outlast all resistance that Ukraine has, and also anything that Europe can throw at them. They have the resources for it, pure and simple. It's only with US involvement that Russia could be held, however, and as it's been mentioned time and time and time again, this leads to nuclear war.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Pretty much as they have been doing. Russia "should" have steamrolled through Ukraine 3 years ago on paper and they are still scrapping for a bombed out village here and a crossroads there. They are making painfully slow progress and losing about a thousand men a day for it. That's not sustainable. If we had just given Ukraine all the weapons they needed early on, they would have already pushed the Russians out of their territory. Russia would still be lobbing missiles in no doubt, but Ukraine (as we have seen recently) can lob stuff at Russian oil refineries too. Russia is also running out of cash and fast. Europe is effectively weaned off Russian energy. China and India will buy, but won't pay European prices. Russia has a bleak future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    The Germans tried "Wandel durch Handel" (change through trade) with Russia. That's why things like Nordstream were built. The Russians were never interested in parity with Europe, only to dominate us. That ship has sailed. The only show in town now is massive defence budgets and a sufficiently large nuclear deterrent under European control.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    We (I am German/Irish) are paying a huge price for trusting Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,407 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Is that why they're using donkeys, bikes and ww2 era equipment?

    And using ww2 era tactics?

    And don't have any air superiority?

    And losing indiscriminate amounts of soldiers that causes their demographic crisis to be a catastrophe?

    Nuclear war is off the table, all of putins red lines were crossed and every time they accidentally land a missile in a NATO country they cry quickly that it was an accident.

    putins folly has been to put europe on a war footing while also killing the market for soviet equipment which will hinder any advancements they could make (remember the uber missiles which weren't and the prototype that flew away?).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,407 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They cared that their trust in russia was so abused, losing the pipeline was inevitable after the invasion began (remember that 2 never turned on, even when it could have been).

    putin seemed to think it was a bargaining point but was also wrong about that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,990 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    It is you who is displaying a poor understanding. The USSR was just about beaten in WWII by Nazi Germany. It was US manufacturing might that saved their collective bacon (and ours). They delivered thousands of tanks, trucks, fuel and everything else to the allies, not least to the USSR. Russia is a spent force right now. It's on the verge of collapse and has, relatively speaking, little to show for it. 20% of Ukrainian territory cor about 1 million killed or wounded in battle. Horrendous losses per km², probably worse than WWII in fact. The threat from Russia is not immediate, it is medium term, when she re-arms. Russia is in absolutely no state to take on NATO today, even in our weakened state. We need to prepare for war in 5 to 10 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    This really is fantasy stuff. Russia is not running out of cash, it's production levels have increased, again, even with the sanctions which haven't worked,. They can outlast Ukraine even with European help. Why do you think, even with the 200 billion from the US, and not including the European contributions, they still hold so much of the land and are advancing at their pace? The Ukrainians are fast running out of money, and people, that's a fact. And the only way that Ukraine has kept going until now is because of the US, it's US data they use, it's US satellites, it's US surveillance. They cannot win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    This is just pathetic nonsense, I think you're watching this Michael Clarke from sky, sounds remarkably like his analysis.

    What are you on about, donkeys? Seriously,this is just garbage. No air superiority? Are you joking..

    When have they landed a missile in a Nato country?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,332 ✭✭✭mulbot


    Are you American?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,765 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Usual "Russian economy is doing better than ever, sanctions haven't worked!" line. Can we go into that in a bit more detail?

    1. Production levels increasing means nothing in isolation. Can say the exact same thing about Ukraine. Could have said the exact same thing about Nazi Germany in 1944. Maybe you can tell us in detail how many fighter planes, modern tanks Russia is capable of producing every month rather than just artillery shells?
    2. What is this mythical ability Russia has to fight war forever and ever? It surrendered in 1905. Virtually collapsed in 1917. USSR almost collapsed in 1942. The Afghan war contributed to collapse in the USSR in 1991. Can you outline how long you think Russia can sustain an invasion of this kind and why you think that?
    3. They hold much of the land? Russia holds less land now than it did in 2022. Correct me if I am wrong but Russia currently holds around 20% of Ukraine, but it already held 12% pre 2022. So, after 3 years of war, you're suggesting Russia is advancing at a pace that suits Russia? An interesting strategy, would love to hear more about the logic.
    4. Sanctions haven't worked….at all? What are your opinions on the rocketing food prices, current inflation rate, status of reserves, and challenges of a war-time economy?


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